Documents published in 2023 : Scipedia

A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN CITIES IN 2015-2019
D. Zemlyanskiy, V. Chuzhenkova, A. Abdullaev, L. Kalinovskiy, V. Kulikov, D. Medvednikova, I. Shampurov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 99

Abstract
The research work is dedicated to a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2015-2019 and reflects both the current level of territorial development and the dynamics of key parameters for the period analyzed. Russian cities regularly become the subject of discussion among representatives of government authorities and the scientific community, as one of the key factors of the socio-economic development of the country as a whole. Contemporary urban scientists usually limit their studies of the current state and peculiarities of social and economic development to just a single municipality or small groups of cities. The goal of this study is to determine the main trends in the socio-economic development of Russian cities between 2015 and 2019. To achieve this goal, the following objectives were formulated: setting up a database of key socio-economic indicators of Russian cities (in the period from 2015 to 2019); a systemic review of socio-economic development trends of Russian cities; identification of main problems and resources of socio-economic development of cities; classification of the cities by the current socio-economic development level. The input data for the research work is taken from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for Municipalities (Database of Indicators of Municipalities, Rosstat), with data from ministries and departments, open sources, including analytical reports, geoinformation systems data, etc. The following research methods are used: analysis of literature and open sources, statistical analysis, econometric and GIS analysis, qualitative comparative analysis, mapping. The results are as follows: an overview of trends in the socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2010-2020 is developed; approaches and methods for assessing the socio-economic development of Russian cities are studied; a database of indicators of socio-economic development of cities for the period 2015-2019 is set up, and an analysis of the structure and features of the database is carried out; the features of socio-economic development of cities depending on population, geographical location, administrative status are studied; the key problems of socio-economic development of cities at the present stage are considered; the classification of Russian cities by socio-economic development level is proposed; a forecast of socio-economic development trends of Russian cities in the short run is made; the Atlas “Socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2015-2019” is compiled. According to the results, the key trends in the socio-economic development of cities are as follows: the preservation of substantial differentiation in terms of socio-economic development; increasing hyper-centralization of population and resources in metropolitan agglomerations; accelerating depopulation of cities; polarization of the settlement system; reduction of the population incomes and city budgets. The most important problems of socio-economic development of cities at the present stage are as follows: a shortage of demographic and migration resources for quantitative growth; slow post-industrial transformation together with a shortage of investment for the development of large and medium-sized enterprises; low level of budgetary independence and a shortage of budget funds for the implementation of development projects. The Atlas of Cities, compiled by the authors based on the results of the work, provides a detailed illustration of trends and problems, supported by an analysis of 40 key statistical properties of the socio-economic development of Russian cities. The Atlas materials will be useful in guiding competent government decisions regarding urban development. They will be helpful to executive authorities of various levels, local stakeholders, and representatives of the expert and a wide range of experts and analysts.
Abstract
The research work is dedicated to a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2015-2019 and reflects both the current level of territorial [...]
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REGULAR MONITORING OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
D. Zemlyanskiy, V. Chuzhenkova, A. Abdullaev, L. Kalinovskiy, V. Kulikov, D. Medvednikova, I. Shampurov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 100

Abstract
This study focuses on the changes in the dynamics of socio-economic development and interregional inequality of the Russian regions in 2019-2020. Peculiarities of territorial development of the Russian Federation, unevenness and key trends in the socio-economic development of Russian regions have become central issues of the federal development agenda in the last few years. At the same time, at the present stage there is no comprehensive database and systematically updated aggregated analytical information that allows tracking key trends in the development of the economies of the subjects of the Russian Federation on a regular basis. The goal of the study is to develop and test the methodology for building a system for regular monitoring and evaluation of the main directions of socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation using statistical and departmental data. In accordance with the overall goal, the following objectives are determined to be addressed within the study: conducting a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation in recent years; determining the composition of the spheres (aspects) of development and indicators of systematic assessment of socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation (separately for monthly, quarterly and year-end monitoring); developing a system for visualizing the key socio-economic processes in the regions of Russia. Considering earlier assessments of crisis effects in the regions of the Russian Federation, the hypothesis was formulated that inequality and divergence of directions of socio-economic development between different regions of the Russian Federation have significantly increased in recent years. The results achieved are as follows: examples of design of systematic monitoring of socio-economic indicators in the context of the subjects of the Russian Federation were given; indicators for the establishment of regular monitoring of socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation were selected; proposals on the publication format, structure and content of regular monitoring of socio-economic development of subjects were made; a methodology for integrated assessment of short-term dynamics of socio-economic development of subjects of the Russian Federation for monitoring and identifying crisis situations was developed; a methodology for conducting an integrated assessment of the socio-economic development level of subjects of the Russian Federation was elaborated, with the ability to track its changes over time; the peculiarities of territorial development, interregional inequality, socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation in 2019-2020 (based on annual indicators) and in 2020 and the first 8 months of 2021 (based on operational indicators) were analyzed; the basic trends of territorial development, which failed to be overcome during the crisis and post-crisis recovery, were identified, namely: the concentration of the economic and investment activity in Moscow (to the detriment of other large regions) and gradual but slow improvement in the level of socio-economic development of Russian regions; stabilization or reduction of interregional inequality indicators, convergence of the dynamics of socio-economic development of the regions with the national average. Materials for in-depth diagnostics of socio-economic development of key regions have also been prepared. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the development of a three-level monitoring system, including annual monitoring, which focuses on interregional inequality, medium-term monitoring aimed at studying the dynamics of interregional differences, and short-term monitoring focused on assessing current changes in the regions. According to the results, it can be stated that the COVID-19 crisis had only a short-term effect on territorial development in Russia. Unlike the previous crises, interregional inequality did not grow in 2020 and stabilized in 2021. At the same time, for most socio-economic indicators, the medium-term dynamics of the regions were unidirectional. The situation is somewhat worse in the regions with high socio-economic development per capita, whose economy depends on oil production. Only two regions were still showing clear signs of crisis phenomena. While the crisis in the Sakhalin Region is largely time-serving, the decline in Komi Republic is systemic and has been going on for several years (started before 2020). Given the relatively positive socio-economic dynamics after the crisis, there is a significant change in the system of inter-budgetary relations and federal support measures. Measures are being actively implemented to reduce the independence of regional administrations in determining the goals of spending inter-budget transfers (the share of transfer payments is decreasing in favor of subsidies). While this situation has little effect on regions with high fiscal capacity (and low transfers) due to the relatively small amounts of transfers they receive, then in highly subsidized regions the changes become very large-scale (up to dozens of percent of the total budget revenues) and may limit the regional initiative in the future. At the same time, the Government has launched incentives aimed at supporting breakthrough investment and projects in the regions. The shift in distribution of these financial resources towards financial and credit support changes the logic of the project formation in the regions. Almost all the funds provided are repayable, which means they must be used towards the growth of tax and non-tax revenues of the regional budgets. However, the mechanisms for allocating funds from the “infrastructure menu” measures do not take into account the actual needs of the regions and are based either on proportional distribution (budget infrastructure loans) or on previous borrowing history.
Abstract
This study focuses on the changes in the dynamics of socio-economic development and interregional inequality of the Russian regions in 2019-2020. Peculiarities of territorial [...]
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THE DARK TRIAD TRAITS AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR IN RELATION TO TOLERANCE TO UNCERTAINTY
K. D.S., B. M.V., Y. N.P.

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 101

Abstract
The relevance of this research lies in the fact that it investigates psychological characteristics as predictors of economic behavior, specifically personal financial management and risky economic decisions. The purpose of this study is to examine 1) the characteristics of economic behavior concerning tolerance to uncertainty, 2) the impact of dispositional variables in economic behavior decisions made by individuals with various levels of the Dark Triad traits (Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy), and different levels of materialism. The methodological basis of the research is the theory of psychological traits. Economic behavior and decision-making were analyzed using the perspective theory and an economic-psychological approach. Two studies are presented, one using correlational method and the other using quasi-experimental design. The research was conducted online, with diagnostic methods including a survey and resolution of situational tasks. The research sampling consists of undergraduate students. Principal findings. Tolerance to ambiguity and the level of Dark Triad traits raise the chance of making risky economic decisions in actual behavior. With varying degrees of tolerance to uncertainty and the Dark Triad traits, framing has the same influence on economic decision-making. While the combination of the Dark Triad traits and materialism contributes to disparities in personal financial management, an inclination toward materialism is more predictive of economic behavior. Economic behavior varies according to the mix of materialistic orientation and the Dark Triad. The findings of the study can serve as the basis for additional research into economic behavior and the creation of practical programs to develop and prevent dangerous economic behavior.
Abstract
The relevance of this research lies in the fact that it investigates psychological characteristics as predictors of economic behavior, specifically personal financial management [...]
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GADGETS AND COGNITIES "PROSPECTIVE ESTIMATES OF TIME WHEN USING GADGETS"
V. Ardislamov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 78

Abstract
Subject: the study is dedicated to a retrospective assessment of time intervals. Relevance: The theory of contextual change states that both attention and long-term memory are involved in estimating the length of past time intervals. However, the same manipulations on the test subjects under experimental conditions can lead to opposite effects. The probe task can either consume the resource of attention or create more short memorable events. The former should lead to a decrease in the interval estimate, and the latter to an increase. Scientific novelty: The predictions of this model have not been confirmed in the metaanalysis by its author, as well as in several studies with long (9-58 min) intervals. Methods: We conducted an experiment (N = 92) trying to establish the role of the resource of attention and long-term memory in the assessment of long time intervals. The results of the study show the assessment of time has no relationship with the cognitive load, or with the number of events remembered. However, a posteriori analysis of the data was carried out, inspired by the theory of metacognitive evaluation of the passage of time, first published in 2022. The results of a posteriori analysis showed the existence of a relationship between the estimated time and the discrepancy between the remembered events and the number of events perceived by the subjects (metacognitive component). Conclusions: based on this data, a metacognitive time estimation model is put forward and further studies are proposed to verify it.
Abstract
Subject: the study is dedicated to a retrospective assessment of time intervals. Relevance: The theory of contextual change states that both attention and long-term memory [...]
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTER TECHNOLOGIES IN EDUCATION, SCIENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES IN FRANCE AND RUSSIA
D. Teslenko

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 79

Abstract
The study examines mechanisms of interconnection and competitive cooperation between educational, research and business structures in the territory, interaction between universities, scientific laboratories and business structures in the development of territories for the innovation and modernization of existing technologies, and the development of digital technologies. The relevance of the study is determined by the contemporary development of individual regions (territories) in different countries around the world, which use cluster technologies as part of the new industrial policy for the development of international competitiveness of individual regions and the entire country. The aim of such networks is not just development, but also the implementation and realization of various products and technologies, including information products and technologies, in a variety of areas of activity. Balanced modern territorial development, including establishment of “smart” cities, is impossible without engaging the local educational structures, companies and scientific institutions in the process. One of the most successful examples of such cooperation is the cluster policy of today’s France, which managed to create a sensible model of interaction between universities, businesses and territorial administration bodies to find successful mechanisms for coordinating efforts of highly diverse structures, directing their actions towards common goals of economic and territorial development. Such experience, adapted to the Russian reality, is highly needed today for the implementation of large-scale programs to overcome the aftermath of the crisis caused by continuing economic and political sanctions against Russia. The Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation identifies “transition to advanced digital, intelligent production technologies, robotic systems, new materials and construction methods, creation of Big Data processing systems, machine learning and artificial intelligence” as the top priority of Russia's development for 10-15 years. The main purpose of the study is to substantiate effective models, necessary and sufficient conditions of institutional and infrastructural nature supporting competitive cooperation between science, education and territorial administrations for sustainable, balanced development, creation of innovative products, training of in-demand personnel (based on the generalization of Russian and adaptation of French experience); to study and use the specific tools of interaction mechanisms, incentives for all participants of networks in competitiveness clusters – between educational and scientific units of universities; between universities and business entities, and relations of all participants with the territorial communities. The following main fundamental and applied problems are addressed within the research: - Comparative analysis of the relationship between science, education and territorial administrations at the macroeconomic level; identification of the influence of education and science on the economic and innovative development of territories (regions); - Generalization of foreign experience in promoting digital technologies in the development of competitive cooperation of science, education and territories; - Studying the experience of France (poles of competitiveness, as well as new experimental institutions created by individual decrees of the President of France) in the formation of coordinators of development of the territory (megalopolis, metropolis, region, etc.); - Relevant issues of digital economy and digital state; - Analysis of the Russian experience in cluster development: higher educational institutions, scientific research, business, public administration (innovation clusters of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and industrial clusters of the Ministry of Industry and Trade), and the models of their interaction, identifying positive and negative instruments; - Development of recommendations to Russian higher educational institutions and all cluster members to expand their innovation activity in conditions of low demand for innovations; Research methods and methodology: The theoretical and methodological basis of the study are legislative and regulatory documents of the Russian Federation, European countries, international organizations in the field of education and science, cluster initiatives, scientific articles and monographs of modern French and Russian scientists, materials of scientific conferences, as well as a comparative analysis of international databases of key indicators in scientific research, online education, reports of international organizations. Methods of international comparative analysis. Methods of comparative analysis of socio-economic information. Methodology of comparative analysis of educational systems of different countries, taking into account their economic development level. Statistical analysis of regional and territorial development data in the field of education and innovations. Databases used: international statistics, Rosstat statistical compilations “Regions of Russia”, “Tekhuspekh” (Tech Success) rating of innovation-driven companies of Russia, HSE rating of innovation development of the Russian regions, reviews by rating agencies, data from the Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovation of the French Republic, National Statistics Institute of France, statistical collections of Eurostat, etc. This research is implemented jointly with scientists of RANEPA partner university - University of Côte d'Azur, the coordinating center of territorial development of Metropolis Côte d'Azur in France. The results of this research can be used to the benefit of: a) RANEPA and other Russian higher education institutions interested in implementing international educational and research programs; b) Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, c) Rossotrudnichestvo; d) Federal Service for Supervision in Education and Science (Rosobrnadzor) for: - generalizing foreign experience of the interconnection between science, education, business and territorial administrations; - analyzing the Russian experience of new industrial policy: higher education institutions, scientific research, business and state administration; - produce recommendations to Russian higher educational institutions to expand innovation activity given the low demand for innovation. Recommendations on adapting the most successful practices for enhancing the competitiveness of universities in the digital revolution era.
Abstract
The study examines mechanisms of interconnection and competitive cooperation between educational, research and business structures in the territory, interaction between [...]
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE HIGH-LEVEL STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS
M. Dmitriev, . V.B.Krapil

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 80

Abstract
The study analyzes the practice of strategic planning in the Russian Federation. The key goal of the study is to analyze the implementation results of strategic documents prepared by various institutions, and to compare them with the implementation results of other top-level strategic documents in the context of evolution of the institutional framework of strategic planning in Russia over the past two decades. The study uses methods of analysis of the implementation results of strategic planning documents and information on the implementation of reforms in the public administration system. The authors use standard expert assessments and official government information to evaluate and compare the results of different types of top-level strategic documents. The results of the study present a methodology for collecting information on the implementation results of top-level strategic documents, a methodology for comparing the implementation results for different kinds of strategic documents. They allow us to identify key institutional problems in the existing strategic planning system and to develop recommendations for improving the institutional component in the strategic planning system. Scientific novelty of the study is based on the analysis of institutional strategic planning problems, produced using the findings of the study of implementation results of previously adopted top-level strategies. The results of the study can be used in preparing future top-level strategic documents
Abstract
The study analyzes the practice of strategic planning in the Russian Federation. The key goal of the study is to analyze the implementation results of strategic documents [...]
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Kokovtsov V.N.: life and work
B. Akatovich

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 81

Abstract
This work describes life and activity of Vladimir Nikolaevich Kokovtsov, prime-minister (1911-1914) and minister of finance (1904-1905, 1906-1914) of the Russian Empire. In the history of the Russian Empire, of the USSR and of the Russian Federation, Kokovtsov was the only statesman to combine the position of minister of finance and of prime-minister. Though there are a number of works and several PhD theses devoted to Kokovtsov – a key actor of his time, a general evaluation of his personality and his influence on the economic development of Russia in the beginning of the 20th century is yet to be made. Filling this gap is the main goal of this work. The object of investigation is Kokovtsov’s political biography, his economic and financial policy, and his efforts to reasonably limit military expenditures. The work is based on both personal materials left by Vladimir Kokovtsov (memoirs, letters), and official documents. Several archived materials – memos on financial matters of military defense made up by Kokovtsov – are published for the first time. The author verifies authenticity of the sources and confirms or refutes some facts presented by Kokovtsov using an array of modern methods of historical science including the principle of historicism, principle of classification, comparative-historical method, and some others. Beyond doubt, Vladimir Nikolaevich Kokovtsov was an outstanding statesman. He was not a politician in the traditional sense. On the contrary, he served his country as an “honest bureaucrat”. Steadfast observation of laws, honesty, efficient financial policy, love for Russia – all these characteristics describe his personality
Abstract
This work describes life and activity of Vladimir Nikolaevich Kokovtsov, prime-minister (1911-1914) and minister of finance (1904-1905, 1906-1914) of the Russian Empire. [...]
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Political Kuznets curve: the effect of democratization and collective action on income distribution
I. Matveev, I. Konovalov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 82

Abstract
Economic inequality is often portrayed as an objective fact that can only be changed by redistributive policies. This leads economists to link inequality to other strictly economic factors – first and foremost, economic growth. This approach is based on Simon Kuznets’ famous hypothesis on the association between growth and inequality. This association has long been treated as economic in nature: after a certain level of economic development is reached, inequality begins to decline. However, in this paper, we deal with theories that refuse to consider inequality to be a purely economic phenomenon. We focus on Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson’s model that indicates the Kuznets curve having a political nature. This model treats inequality as a result of the conflict between masses and elites, and suggests searching for a strategic compromise by building democratic institutions. We investigate the model’s assumptions and through studying empirical works we indicate possible ways to advance Acemoglu and Robinson’s theory. We conclude that the model’s basic structure is sound, however, its development requires detailed case studies, not just general econometric analysis. We also claim that Acemoglu and Robinson’s model should involve a more nuanced understanding of the causes and effects of collective action both before and after democratization
Abstract
Economic inequality is often portrayed as an objective fact that can only be changed by redistributive policies. This leads economists to link inequality to other strictly [...]
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Analysis of the effect of e-commerce increase on inflation
A. Grebenkina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 83

Abstract
The anti-pandemic restrictions of recent years fueled an explosive growth of e-commerce in goods and services in Russia and worldwide. Therefore, the issue of macroeconomic consequences of the process of e-commerce growth is relevant. The subject of this research is economic transformation under the influence of the spread of e-commerce. The study aims to identify key theoretical mechanisms of how development of e-commerce influences main economic indicators, including inflation. It is based on the methods of generalization, systematization, descriptive and graphical analysis. According to the results of the study, e-commerce most notably influences aggregate factor productivity, the cost of production factors, consumer welfare, international trade volume and the cost of information for consumers. The study concludes that e-commerce causes predominantly downward pressure on prices and inflation, regardless of the mechanism of influence, because of a decrease in production and transport costs, reduction in the corporate monopoly power, and better product variety. This conclusion is also confirmed by some empirical countrywide studies. The scientific novelty of the research lies in systematization of the channels via which e-commerce influences various spheres of the economy. The study recommends considering the factor of downward pressure while conducting Russian monetary policy in the condition of continued e-commerce spread. A promising area of further research is the empirical verification of identified theoretical mechanisms of influence based on the data on e-commerce development in Russian regions.
Abstract
The anti-pandemic restrictions of recent years fueled an explosive growth of e-commerce in goods and services in Russia and worldwide. Therefore, the issue of macroeconomic [...]
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Structural breaks in cointegration models
A. Skrobotov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 84

Abstract
This review discusses methods of testing for a cointegration in a time series in the presence of structural breaks. The review covers a large number of recently developed testing methods based on both one equation and multiple equation frameworks. In addition, various methods for estimating the dating of break dates and constructing of their confidence intervals are presented. In addition, nonlinear cointegration methods with regime swithings are considered
Abstract
This review discusses methods of testing for a cointegration in a time series in the presence of structural breaks. The review covers a large number of recently developed testing [...]
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Excess mortality in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: regional analysis
S. Shcherbov, S. Shulgin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 85

Abstract
One of the most important tasks for assessing the damage from a pandemic is the assessment of human losses resulting from the disease. As a rule, it is rather difficult to estimate the direct number of deaths from COVID-19, due to both the methodological difficulties in assessing the causes of death and the choice of a reference point for assessing excess mortality. The existing approaches, such as comparing with the previous year or the average mortality figure over the past few years are associated with numerous problems. To get a more objective assessment of the number of deaths in the absence of a pandemic, it is necessary to use the projected number of deaths considering the age structure of the population. To assess excess mortality, this paper uses the method of constructing a demographic forecast. The baseline scenario against which excess mortality is calculated is estimated using a multi-regional demographic projection. In this paper we are using statistical data from Rosstat and the results of demographic modeling to analyze the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We compare the mortality data for 2020 with the projected number of deaths for 2020. The paper provides estimates of excess mortality in the regional context. Estimates are given both for the Russian Federation as a whole and for individual Russian regions. Estimates of excess mortality are also provided for separately for men and women and older age groups.
Abstract
One of the most important tasks for assessing the damage from a pandemic is the assessment of human losses resulting from the disease. As a rule, it is rather difficult [...]
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Relevance Assessment of Long-Term Care Formats in Russia
K. Manuilskaya, O. Solodovnikova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 86

Abstract
The paper is based on the findings of the research work “The Elderly People’s Needs for the New Type of Social Housing: Perception, Assessment And Expectations”, conducted by the team of the Field Research Center of the RANEPA Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting in 2021. The work is an extension of the last year’s project and includes a systematic review of current foreign literature on aging, long-term care, and the analysis of the results of an all-Russian telephone survey. Currently, the main approach in long-term care is the concept of “aging at home”. However, the concept of “home” and living space is considered quite broadly and is not limited to the formal dwelling. The 2020 research work resulted in the development of the concept of a “new type of social home”, which can apply both to the design of new residential compounds and to renovation or adaptation of an existing residential compound and social infrastructure to the needs of the older generation. The implementation of any concept should be preceded by an assessment of its relevance and population demand. That was the aim of this year’s telephone survey, the results of which are presented in the paper, and may be useful for scientific and methodological support of programs and strategies in the field of aging and old age, for the formation of state policy in the field of social protection of the elderly, as well as for the development of specific social policy directions, measures and mechanisms
Abstract
The paper is based on the findings of the research work “The Elderly People’s Needs for the New Type of Social Housing: Perception, Assessment And Expectations”, [...]
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CUSTOMER FOCUS AND EFFICIENCY OF PUBLIC SERVICE PROVIDERS
T. Maleva, D. Rogozin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 87

Abstract
Implementing the goals related to the modernization of the sphere of public services requires revising the reform stages that have been completed and assessing its current results. This study proposes an integrated approach to the development of a methodology for such an assessment, as well as a communication environment that creates an effective demand for the data obtained. The research objective is to develop and test a methodology for assessing the customer focus of government institutions. The tasks are: to formulate a problem, build a research methodology, form an array of data, assess the general perception of the public services sector by the respondents, identify the most problematic sectors of public services in the public perception, and analyze the respondents’ proposals. The research methodology is based on analytical procedures related to the collection and processing of primary and secondary data, conducting opinion polls and interpreting research results. The study is aimed at identifying the public perception of the level of customer focus of public service providers and government agencies, which determines the relevance of this work. The object of the research is the socio-economic situation of the population of Russia. The subject of the research is the satisfaction of the public with the quality and procedure for the provision of public services. The survey was conducted on March 23-27, 2021 on a non-random river sample. In total, 2110 people were interviewed. The sample is not representative and does not represent the population of Russia; however, it allows us to formulate significant hypotheses and highlight the characteristic features of the perception of the quality of public services by various social groups. The results of the study show that the public has a generally positive attitude towards public services: the maximum value of the Index for assessing the quality of public services reveals the top three (migration registration services, obtaining personal vehicle documents, medicine). Nevertheless, the high assessment of the quality of medical services contradicts the data of other surveys that state the Russians’ critical attitude towards the healthcare sector. Approval of the depersonalization of the service provider in areas such as education and health deserves in-depth study.
Abstract
Implementing the goals related to the modernization of the sphere of public services requires revising the reform stages that have been completed and assessing its current [...]
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Accentuation of the Ormuri-Parachi languages (Iranian group) and its Indo-European origin
A. Trofimov, A. Kasyan, I. Egorov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 88

Abstract
Subject. The article examines the system of accentuation of the minor Iranian languages, Parachi and Ormuri, and its connection with the Pashto system. Purpose. Etymological description of the Parachi and Ormuri accent systems. Relevance. Importance of Iranian data for Indo-European reconstruction. Novelty. First, the authors give a historical review of existing studies, which establish the archaic character of accentuation of both Pashto and Parachi-Ormuri, and then, based primarily on the research of V. A. Dybo and V. A. Efimov, a list of lexical etymological connections between these languages is compiled, which allows us to indicate the place of the original Proto-Iranian stress. Methods. Etymological, lexicographic. Results. The list shows that the accent system in Ormuri-Parachi languages corresponds in detail to the one described for Pashto: traces of baritonesis and oxytones are preserved in two- and three-syllable nouns, in numerals and verbs; accent in derivative names is placed “by contrast”, of the same type that is established for the Vedic language. Moreover, a number of similarities under consideration are exclusive to Eastern Iranian languages, and in general, there are even more lexical and morphological isoglosses between Parachi and Ormuri and Eastern Iranian languages. Findings. The two factors described above indicate that Parachi and Ormuri, according to the traditional classification, are more likely to be closely related to the South-Eastern Iranian languages, primarily Pashto and, possibly, Mundjan and Yidga. Recommendations. It is desirable to collect new field data on Parachi and Ormuri.
Abstract
Subject. The article examines the system of accentuation of the minor Iranian languages, Parachi and Ormuri, and its connection with the Pashto system. Purpose. [...]
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HISTORICAL ROOTS OF THE PERCEPTION OF RUSSIA IN FRANCE PUBLIC OPINION
N. Tanshina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 89

Abstract
Relevance of the study. The attitude towards the Russian Federation in the modern world is highly complex and contradictory. This is due, in part, ’to the traditional perception of Russia in the west in the context of the binary “Friend-or-Foe” juxtaposition. Studying the origins of these processes is undoubtedly relevant. The object of the study is the perception of Russia in the public opinion of France in the XIX century, and the development of the image of Russia in the public opinion of France during the XIX - XXI centuries. The purpose of the study is to examine the historical roots of the perception of Russia in the public opinion of France and in the French intellectual circles, based on the analysis of the works of French authors of the 1840s-1880s, and to compare this image with modern ideas about Russia in the French intellectual and political circles. The study was conducted in 2021 as part of the RANEPA research work. Research method or methodology: The research involves the use of an interdisciplinary synthesis methodology based on classical historical analysis. The study of stereotypes of mutual perception and the reconstruction of the “image of the Other” require applying the methodology of imagological research. In addition, the study of political ideology involves applying the methodology of intellectual history and the history of ideas. The results of the study: using the example of the analysis of the image of Russia formed in the public opinion of France in the XIX - XX centuries, the authors attempt to: - identify the main circle of authors writing about Russia in the period under review, to determine the main circle of sources and to classify them; - study the works about Russia written in the 1840s, after the publication of the book by Astolphe de Custine; - analyze the transformation of the view of Russia on the eve and during the Crimean War (1853-1856); - study the changes in the perception of Russia after the Crimean War, given the improvement of Franco-Russian relations in the years preceding the conclusion of the Franco-Russian Union.
Abstract
Relevance of the study. The attitude towards the Russian Federation in the modern world is highly complex and contradictory. This is due, in part, ’to the traditional [...]
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BEHAVIORAL STRATEGIES OF THE RUSSIAN POPULATION TO PROTECT ITS HEALTH: NEW CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
P. A.N., G. I.A., Z. N.V.

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 90

Abstract
The scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center of Socio-Political Monitoring of the School of Public Policy and Management at RANEPA Institute for Social Sciences. The relevance of the study: Preserving and strengthening the health of the population is a priority task for the Russian state. Currently, this problem is acquiring special significance in the context of changes in the social reality associated with a challenging COVID-19 pandemic situation. The purpose of the study is to analyze the behavioral strategies of the population related to maintaining and improving their health. The objectives of the study are related to assessing the degree of influence of the main behavioral factors on the health and social well-being of the citizens, with an assessment of the measures taken by the state to form behavioral strategies of the population aimed at protecting and strengthening their health. The subject of the study is the prevalence of various types of behavioral strategies and their impact on the health status and social well-being of representatives of different socio-demographic groups and strata. Methods: The main source of empirical information was the all-Russian sociological survey of the population, conducted on April 8-19, 2021 using the method of formalized personal interviews at the respondents’ place of residence. 1,500 people aged 18 and over were interviewed in 30 regions of the Russian Federation. Results: The study records an increase in the people’s positive self-perception of their health over the past two decades; at the same time, the respondents are susceptible to a wide range of diseases. There is an increase in demand for qualified medical care in case of illness; however, self-medication remains widespread, which can negatively affect people's health. The people’s actual behavior often does not correspond to their ideas about a healthy lifestyle. Russians do not have a well-developed culture of healthy lifestyles; they lack the habit of daily positive activities to maintain and strengthen their health. In general, the results of the study show insufficiency of the measures taken by the state to create conditions for strengthening the public health. Conclusions. The problems identified show the need to increase the availability of medical care, improve health awareness of the public, expand incentives for self-preservation and health promotion. Scientific novelty. The value of this study lies in obtaining up-to-date information on the priorities of the Russian citizens, their self-preservation behavior in a force majeure situation of an epidemiological crisis and its consequences, which can contribute to promoting managerial decisions in healthcare and social development that are adequate to the needs of the population.
Abstract
The scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center of Socio-Political Monitoring of the School of Public Policy and Management at RANEPA Institute for [...]
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New global development conditions of international economic relations: reforming directions
A. Pakhomov, K. Bagdasaryan

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 91

Abstract
The study analyzes the latest trends in the reform of international economic relations, especially global trade and capital flows worldwide. It also analyzes the opportunities and limitations of Russia’s participation in international economic reform processes in the interests of the national economy and foreign trade. The main purpose of the study is to identify emerging trends in global economy and international relations at the present stage and define the opportunities for Russia’s participation in the new processes. The main objectives of the study are: a) to identify the main factors and areas of transformation of international economic relations; b) to determine possible directions of reforming various sectors of the global economy; c) to study potential shifts in the balance of power and interests in the global economy at different levels - i.e. country, region and global; d) to identify opportunities and limitations for the Russian Federation to participate in the processes of transformation of international economic relations with regard to national interests; e) to reveal the main directions of Russia’s interaction with various groups of countries and international organizations under the new conditions. Special attention is given to the reform of global value chains, transformation of world trade and shifts in the balance of power in international economic relations. Finally, the study provides an expert assessment of the problem of maintaining the market status of the Russian economy and practical recommendations for a possible solution of this issue
Abstract
The study analyzes the latest trends in the reform of international economic relations, especially global trade and capital flows worldwide. It also analyzes the opportunities [...]
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THE PHENOMENON OF RESOCIALIZATION OF ADOLESCENTS, THAT ARE IN A DIFFICULT LIFE SITUATION, IN RUSSIAN AND FOREIGN STUDIES
I. Popova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 77

Abstract
The relevance of this research is associated with the need to study the conditions of effectiveness of the secondary socialization of adolescents in a difficult life situation, caused by the deep-rooted traumatic experience in their personal development in the process of primary socialization. This issue points to the need to solve the problems of nationwide level in terms of preventing marginalization of minors and the development of criminal behavior in adolescence. The object of the study is the specifics of modeling the conditions of resocialization of adolescents in socially vulnerable categories in the Russian and foreign scientific practice. The goal of the study is to analyze scientific approaches and developments that provide a theoretical and methodological rationale and effectiveness of practical activities to create conditions for resocialization of adolescents in difficult situations. We carried out the research based on the results of content analysis of Russian dissertation research in the period from 2000 to 2021 and foreign scientific articles dedicated to the stated problems. Research methods: analysis of information sources, content analysis of dissertation studies and scientific publications, systematization, analysis and synthesis of the information obtained. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by the assessment of the current development of the resocialization problems of socially vulnerable minors in modern Russian scientific research. This is the first time such a study is conducted in the Russian Federation. As a result, we found that the issues of juvenile resocialization are developed in the studies conducted within the framework of penitentiary pedagogy and psychology on a systemic basis. Only a few studies on this topic exist as part of the general education system. The majority (more than 60%) of Russian scientific research on juvenile resocialization covers adolescents with experience of deviant and delinquent behavior, including those sentenced to punishment. Other categories of socially vulnerable adolescents are either not covered at all, or covered within isolated precedents. Questions of resocialization of children raised in migrant families are the most difficult to study. Currently, there is a trend of substituting the term “resocialization” with such categories as “cultural adaptation” and “social integration” in relation to this group of adolescents. Based on the results obtained, the main conclusion is that the development of research on the study of resocialization of adolescents in vulnerable categories needs a focused analysis of promising directions, covering the methodology of the issue and different target groups of minors, not focusing only on the resocialization of adolescent offenders. Recommendations: to create required conditions and implement effective pedagogical activities aimed at supporting the resocialization of adolescents in socially vulnerable categories, it is necessary to disseminate among practicing education specialists the scientific developments proven by the testing and implementation results. It is necessary to stimulate the development of relevant scientific research that reveals aspects of resocialization of not only adolescents sentenced to punishment, with deviant/delinquent behavior, but also adolescents belonging to other groups of children in difficult situations (teenagers from poor families, from migrant/resettled families, children without parental care, unwatched/neglected children, victims of armed conflicts, victims of objective life circumstances, including domestic violence, parental neglect, health conditions, etc.).
Abstract
The relevance of this research is associated with the need to study the conditions of effectiveness of the secondary socialization of adolescents in a difficult life situation, [...]
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Deep-learning based aeroelastic modeling for transient flows and non-linear dynamics
A. Chaarane, M. Casanova, T. Sayadi, J. Chassaing, A. CHAARANE

eccomas2022.

Abstract
Supervised deep learning algorithms are investigated as reduced order models for the prediction of unsteady forces resulting from flow-induced vibrations of an elastically mounted structures. Several machine learning architectures, namely convolutional, echo state, and long-term memory networks, are deployed to model the transient aerodynamic force and the motion of the structure in the presence of nonlinear dynamics due to cubic structural forces or due to aerodynamic nonlinearities such as moving shock waves and vortex-shedding. First, machine learning architectures are designed to handle the regression problem where the motion of the structure is learned only in the transient phase. A comparative study is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction of limit cycle oscillations obtained for the case of the pitch and plunge airfoil problem[1], where a nonlinear cubic torsional stiffness is considered in order to observe sub- or super-critical Hopf bifurcations in the airfoil motion[2]. Then, a hybrid neural network architecture is proposed in order to parametrize the bifurcation diagram of the aeroelastic system across multiple coefficients in the nonlinear restoring force. Finally, the present deep learning algorithm is employed as a meta-model to perform ensemble-based variational data assimilation[3] where pressure sensors, located in the wake flow, are used to identify the structural parameters of the spring-mass system subjected to flow-induced vibrations such as gallop and flutter mechanisms at low Reynolds number. References [1] J-C. Chassaing, C-T. Nitschke, D. Lucor, P. Cinnella, A. Vincenti, Advances in parametric and model-form uncertainty quantification in canonical aeroelastic systems, AerospaceLab Journal, AL14-07, Issue 14, Sep. 2018 [2] K. Li, J. Kou, W. Zhang, Deep Neural network for unsteady aerodynamic and aeroelastic modeling across multiple Mach numbers , Nonlinear Dynamics, Vol. 96(5), pp. 1--21, 2019. [3] V. Mons, J.-C. Chassaing, T. Gomez, P. Sagaut, Reconstruction of unsteady viscous flows using data assimilation schemes, Journal of Computational Physics, Vol. 316, pp. 255--280, 2016.
Abstract
Supervised deep learning algorithms are investigated as reduced order models for the prediction of unsteady forces resulting from flow-induced vibrations of an elastically [...]
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Early detection of breast cancer in mammograms using the lightweight modification of efficientNet B3
N. Ruza, S. Hussain, S. Mohamed, M. Arzmi

Rev. int. métodos numér. cálc. diseño ing. (2023). Vol. 39, (3), 29

Abstract
Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of death in women worldwide and early detection is critical to improving survival rates. In this study, we present a modified deep learning method for automatic feature detection for breast mass classification on mammograms. We propose to use EfficientNet, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architecture that requires minimal parameters. The main advantage of EfficientNet is the small number of parameters, which allows efficient and accurate classification of mammogram images. Our experiments show that EfficientNet, with an overall accuracy of 86.5 percent, has the potential to be the basis for a fully automated and effective breast cancer detection system in the future. Our results demonstrate the potential of EfficientNet to improve the accuracy and efficiency of breast cancer detection compared to other approaches.
Abstract
Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of death in women worldwide and early detection is critical to improving survival rates. In this study, we present a modified deep [...]
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Combination of 3D solid finite elements with rotation-free beam elements for non-linear analysis of fiber reinforced polymer rebars
F. Zarate, T. Villette, X. Martinez, F. Rastellini Canela, D. Cendón, C. Andrade, E. Oñate

Rev. int. métodos numér. cálc. diseño ing. (2023). Vol. 39, (2), 12

Abstract
We present a combination of three dimensional (3D) solid elements and rotation-free beam elements for non-linear analysis of fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) of rebars. The matrix material is modelled by 3D solid elements while the fibers are modelled with rotation-free beam elements. The absence of rotation variables in the beam elements allows the straightforward coupling of 3D solid and beam elements using a formulation with displacement nodal degrees of freedom only. Both solid and beam elements are formulated in an updated Lagrangian description. The behavior of the matrix and the fiber material are modelled with an elastic-damage model. The efficiency and accuracy of the combined 3D-beam element formulation are verified in examples of application to the analysis of FRP rebars up to fracture in axial, bending and shear tests for which experimental results are available.
Abstract
We present a combination of three dimensional (3D) solid elements and rotation-free beam elements for non-linear analysis of fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) of rebars. The [...]
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A 2D numerical simulation to predict erosion resistance index in Phu Vinh-Quang Binh earth dam
V. Le

Rev. int. métodos numér. cálc. diseño ing. (2023). Vol. 39, (2), 26

Abstract
The suffusion susceptibility of the soil samples is evaluated through an erosion resistance index. Thanks to existing statistical analyses, the erosion resistance index is estimated from several soil parameters. In actual exploitation, the soil properties with the input parameters related to the grain distribution of the soil… vary greatly from the original design value due to the influence of many factors. One of the factors is the inherent variability. Inherent soil variability is modelled as a random field. The usual problems used to assess the suffusion susceptibility may be not give accurate results or fully evaluate the actual working ability of the ground in each case. This is one of the reasons why dams are still eroded when they are put into use. The paper aims predict erosion resistance index of the earth dam using two-dimensional (2D) Stochastics random field, modelling the initial problem, considering the variability spatial of soil properties, using the assumption of a Normal random field of soil characteristics parameters. The paper shows the predicted results of the variability spatial of erosion resistance index of Phu Vinh dam-Vietnam. Furthermore, the paper also represents the happened probability of suffusion susceptibility at the different zones in the earth dam body.
Abstract
The suffusion susceptibility of the soil samples is evaluated through an erosion resistance index. Thanks to existing statistical analyses, the erosion resistance index is [...]
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Effects of Financial Innovations on Performance of Commercial Banks in Kenya
V. Kombe

African Journal of Commercial Studies (2023). Volume 2, Number 1, 2023 | pp 12 – 26

Abstract
Understanding how financial innovations affect Kenya's commercial banks' performance is the main goal of the current study. The United States has long been a leader in financial innovation. However, in terms of financial innovation, China and African nations like Kenya and Nigeria have taken the lead globally. Kenya presently leads the world in mobile money services. The conflicting results of the positive and negative performance of commercial banks as a result of financial innovations served as the impetus for the current study. A literature review technique was adopted in the research. The study's overall conclusions demonstrate that financial innovations improve financial performance, as seen by an increase in transactions, the creation of convenience, and decreased maintenance costs. Banks that are incorporating financial innovations are therefore better positioned to boost their revenue and customer satisfaction, both of which are linked to increased performance. According to the report, authorities should make sure that there are laws in place that can foster an environment where banks may keep innovating.
Abstract
Understanding how financial innovations affect Kenya's commercial banks' performance is the main goal of the current study. The United States has long been a leader [...]
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Effects of Internal Control Components on Revenue Generation among Corporations in Kenya
G. Mutua

African Journal of Commercial Studies (2023). Volume 2, Number 1, 2023 | pp 1 – 11

Abstract
Most businesses have underperformed due to the ever-changing environmental forces that affect the operation of commercial enterprises. Strong internal control systems are necessary for the institutions to implement sound revenue collection practices. Regarding the link between internal control systems and revenue generation, actual research in this area is scarce. The main objective of this research was to determine the effects of internal control components on revenue generation in Kenyan companies. The specific objectives focused on the effects of control environments, risk assessment, and control activities in Kenya. Agency theory and stewardship theory will serve as the study’s foundation. The study engaged in a literature review approach to find out whether there is a direct relationship between the internal control components and revenue generation. The study reached the conclusion that budgets heavily rely on revenue collection, which is essential to financial management. According to the report, management should continuously improve internal control procedures to keep the system current with expanding operational capability, regular internal training, and employee development.
Abstract
Most businesses have underperformed due to the ever-changing environmental forces that affect the operation of commercial enterprises. Strong internal control systems are [...]
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Mergers and Acquisitions and their effects on Firms objectives: African perspective
M. Patrick, Y. Makolo, C. Kamau

African Journal of Commercial Studies (2022). Volume 1, Number 2, 2022 | pp 27 – 38

Abstract
Mergers and acquisitions are widely seen as a long-term strategy for resolving financial problems in corporations. This research study that is primarily based on a desk review established that this commercial enterprise approach has given mixed findings, such as failing to establish that the stated factors led to the manner of mergers and acquisitions, nor has it published an increase in profitability of commercial enterprise financial performance due to mergers and acquisitions. However, all mergers and acquisitions are no longer unsuccessful due to some factors like monetary, advertising, and operational problems. Thus, there are other important factors that influence mergers and acquisitions, such as value creation, 'cultural' integration, and profitability. According to the study's findings, mergers and acquisitions have a positive impact on financial institutions' net income in the form of in-creased wealth, decreased effective spending, and increased revenue growth.
Abstract
Mergers and acquisitions are widely seen as a long-term strategy for resolving financial problems in corporations. This research study that is primarily based on a desk review [...]
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Economic Impact of Mergers and Acquisitions in Corporate World: An African context
F. Sogomi, M. Thuranira, C. Kamau

African Journal of Commercial Studies (2022). Volume 1, Number 2, 2022 | pp 15 – 26

Abstract
Mergers and acquisitions have been pronounced and adopted with the profound need to combat the economic crisis and neutralize the detrimental effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The uncertainty and risks involved in undertaking business operations have rapidly given rise to the strategic and systematic execution of cost-cutting measures and survival techniques. Mergers and acquisitions are one of the most effective strategies for the survival of a company through the creation of synergies and leveraging on economies of scale. The aim of the study was to establish the economic impacts of mergers and acquisitions in the corporate world. The study specifically sought to analyze and determine the extent to which mergers and acquisitions affect the selected variables constituting market share, shareholders’ wealth, portfolio diversification, employment, and economies of scale. The analysis apparently observed that mergers and acquisitions have no significant impact on shareholders’ wealth in the short run, as indicated by stock price movements, despite commanding an extensive customer base and market share, reduction of operation costs based on economies of scale, and mitigation of financial risks through portfolio diversification. The corporate employees always impede any kind of mergers and acquisitions due to the uncertainties and apprehensions associated with their engagements and organizational culture pitting them against the conventional narrative that change is inevitable.
Abstract
Mergers and acquisitions have been pronounced and adopted with the profound need to combat the economic crisis and neutralize the detrimental effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. [...]
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Working Capital Management Practices and Financial Performance in Kenya
D. Ogutu

African Journal of Commercial Studies. (2022). Volume 1, Number 2, 2022 | pp 8 – 14

Abstract
Gross working capital and net working capital are the two components that can be used to establish the working capital concept. Between current liabilities and current assets, there is a difference called net working capital. Accounts receivable, cash, and inventory are examples of current assets because they are easily convertible into cash; on the other hand, current liabilities are those that are owed to the company right away, such as accounts payable, bills payable, and other financial instruments. This paper appraises the interactions between working capital management in terms of cash, inventories, receivables, and payables management in relation to financial performance. The study also highlights two theories relating to working capital management: the liquidity preference theory and the cash conversion cycle. The study concludes that different working capital components have varying effects on the financial performance of manufacturing enterprises. Some studies reveal a favorable association between the components of working capital, whereas others reveal a detrimental relationship.
Abstract
Gross working capital and net working capital are the two components that can be used to establish the working capital concept. Between current liabilities and current assets, [...]
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Financial Performance and Investment Decision Making in Kenya
E. Ateino

African Journal of Commercial Studies (2022). Volume 1, Number 2, 2022 | pp 1 – 7

Abstract
Investors can gain insight into an organization's future by examining its financial performance, which shows whether its operations and profits are on track to increase as well as the outlook for its stock. Financial performance is a snapshot of an organization's economic health and the management's performance. Investors can gain insight into an organization's future by examining its financial performance, which shows whether its operations and profits are on track to increase as well as the outlook for its stock. Financial performance is a snapshot of an organization's economic health and the management's performance. This paper examines the interactions between profitability and liquidity in terms of financial performance and investment options. Based on the study's findings, management must evaluate profitability, solvency, and liquidity in order to fulfill goals like maximizing shareholders' value.
Abstract
Investors can gain insight into an organization's future by examining its financial performance, which shows whether its operations and profits are on track to increase [...]
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Internal Auditor’s Role and Corporate Financial Performance in Kenya
A. Midecha

African Journal of Commercial Studies (2022). Volume 1, Number 1, 2022 | pp 36 – 42

Abstract
The internal auditor's job is to independently vouch for the efficiency of the organization's risk management, governance, and internal control systems. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the effects of risk assessment, financial statement audits, and internal auditor evaluations of controls on financial performance. This essay began by outlining the function of internal audit. An empirical study of the literature is then conducted with regard to financial performance and reviews of internal controls, financial statements, and risk management. The study found that there is evidence in the literature linking financial success and internal auditor functions.
Abstract
The internal auditor's job is to independently vouch for the efficiency of the organization's risk management, governance, and internal control systems. The purpose [...]
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The Effects of Fiscal Policy on the Performance of Commercial Banks in Kenya
S. Orodi

African Journal of Commercial Studies (2022). Volume 1, Number 1, 2022 | pp 18 – 27.

Abstract
Fiscal policy refers to the use of government spending and tax policies to influence economic conditions. Fiscal policies have existed for a long time, with major debates between proponents of the Keynesian model and the monetary approach. Fiscal policy can either be contractionary, expansionary, or neutral. This study analyses the literature on the effect of the national budget on banks performance; effect of Taxation on bank performance; and the effect of public expenditure on performance of Banks in Kenya. The literature shows that government expenditure is a good fiscal policy measure in terms of the positive performance of commercial banks however, there is a need to consider the issue of corruption that negatively affects the expenditure controls that are crucial in an effective government approach in terms of the way the authorities ensure effective expenditure programs. Budget surplus and the positive impact on banks’ lending, no direct or clear argument shows the role of budgeting on commercial banks' performance. Taxes also play an important role in developing infrastructures that are crucial for the improved performance of firms. However, gaps exist in literature that needs to explored by further studies.
Abstract
Fiscal policy refers to the use of government spending and tax policies to influence economic conditions. Fiscal policies have existed for a long time, with major debates [...]
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Effects of Computerized Accounting Systems on Financial Performance
F. Kanyanga

African Journal of Commercial Studies (2022). Volume 1, Number 1, 2022 | pp 28 – 35.

Abstract
Many organizations have wholeheartedly embraced computerized accounting systems in order to expand their corporate operations. In recent years, service businesses, particularly the banking industry, have experienced considerable development as a result of the use of computerized accounting systems. This study assesses the linkage between the financial performance of Kenyan businesses and the setting for computerized accounting. A few of the themes that have been taken into account are data controls, detective controls, preventive controls, and corrective controls. In contrast to clerks using manual procedures, the study found that a computerized accounting system (CAS) will not issue invoices incorrectly, hence eliminating errors. Business organizations are becoming more and more competitive in the market as a result of the implementation of CAS.
Abstract
Many organizations have wholeheartedly embraced computerized accounting systems in order to expand their corporate operations. In recent years, service businesses, particularly [...]
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Considerations for bridging the Audit Expectation Gap: A Desk Review
C. Kamau

African Journal of Commercial Studies (ISSN: 2958-2326) (2022). Volume 1, Number 1, 2022 | pp 1 – 8

Abstract
The difference between what the general public and users of financial information believe auditors are responsible for and what auditors actually believe their obligations are is known as the expectation gap. This study aims to identify the nature of the audit expectation gap and suggest ways to close it. This will include a focus on how technology can be deployed to address similar concerns. The study proposed a set of criteria that might be utilized to close the expectation gap between user needs and expectations and audit expectations, including society knowledge, audit report length, audit independence, auditor efforts, and auditor abilities. The study came to the further conclusion that technology is crucial for closing both the performance and reasonableness gaps.
Abstract
The difference between what the general public and users of financial information believe auditors are responsible for and what auditors actually believe their obligations [...]
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Study on dynamic response characteristics of radial steel gate under rare earthquake considering fluid structure coupling effect
S. Shi, Y. Han, K. Hu, Y. Zhou, T. Hu, Y. Lou, J. Wang, T. Hou

Rev. int. métodos numér. cálc. diseño ing. (2023). Vol. 39, (2), 10

Abstract
The water resources in southwest China is abundant and the seismicity is strong, so it is necessary to study the dynamic response and safety of hydraulic structures under rare earthquake. Taking a typical radial steel gate as an example, a three-dimensional numerical model considering the interaction between water and gate during the earthquake is established. The accuracy and applicability of the model are verified by comparing with the measured results of the dynamic response of Zipingpu dam during the Wenchuan earthquake. Thereafter, the dynamic displacement and stress, and resonance frequency of the radial gate under the rare earthquake of two wave types are analyzed. The water-structure coupling effect has a great influence on the seismic dynamic response of the radial steel gate. The calculated result of the dynamic response of the gate considering the fluid-structure coupling effect is significantly larger than that of the specification, and the maximum ratio of the two is more than 2.27 times. Under the action of EI wave, the peak value of dynamic stress response is at the bottom of the panel, and the maximum value of resonance frequency (about49.13 Hz) is located in the middle and lower part of the panel. Under the action of far-field wave, the peak area of dynamic displacement response of the gate is basically the same as that under the action of EI wave, while the maximum value of some measuring points is only half of the maximum value under the action of EI wave. However, the resonance frequency is significantly greater than that of EI wave, the maximum value reaches 65.24 Hz, which appears at the top of the gate. The dynamic response of the gate structure caused by two different wave types of earthquakes is not completely consistent. The comprehensive consideration of different wave types is of significance for the structural design and safety evaluation of the radial steel gate in the earthquake-prone areas.
Abstract
The water resources in southwest China is abundant and the seismicity is strong, so it is necessary to study the dynamic response and safety of hydraulic structures under [...]
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Challenges Affecting Financial Performance of Small and Medium Sized Firms in Kenya
C. Murori

African Journal of Commercial Studies (2022). 1(1), 9-17

Abstract
Financial performance, in a broader sense, refers to the extent to which a firm's financial objectives have been met. This study aimed to evaluate the obstacles impacting small and medium-sized firms' financial performance in Kenya. The study's foundation was the body of existing literature, particu-larly on the variables affecting performance in small and medium-sized businesses, which was used to pinpoint these difficulties. The study's descriptive survey design was used. Nine hundred and eighteen businesses answered questionnaires from the researcher. To gather primary data for this study, stand-ardized questionnaires were used. The collected data were subjected to correlation analysis, with the findings presented using scatter diagrams. The study established a positive linear relationship between the financial performance of SMEs and each of the variables: capital adequacy, human resources com-mitment, and customer loyalty.
Abstract
Financial performance, in a broader sense, refers to the extent to which a firm's financial objectives have been met. This study aimed to evaluate the obstacles impacting [...]
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Introduccion a los grupos de Lie y su relación con la solución de las ecuaciones diferenciales
A. Lechuga

Antonio Lechuga's personal collection (2023). 2

Abstract
Resumen El procedimiento para resolver ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias mediante los llamados grupos de Lie se basa en la geometr´ıa diferencial y su alcance notable, una vez que se dominan las t´ecnicas elementales en esta disciplina. La resoluci´on de algunos ejemplos nos ayudar´an en este cometido.
Abstract
Resumen El procedimiento para resolver ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias mediante los llamados grupos de Lie se basa en la geometr´ıa diferencial y su alcance [...]
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Structure design and performance analysis of downhole hydraulic decoder
H. Fang, X. Zhou, Z. Liu, Y. Peng, Y. Wu, J. Li

Rev. int. métodos numér. cálc. diseño ing. (2023). Vol. 39, (2), 8

Abstract
In order to reduce the number of hydraulic decoders and hydraulic control pipelines in hydraulically controlled intelligent wells, reduce production costs and improve oil recovery efficiency, the structural design of ICV control of two hydraulic control pipelines and a single hydraulic decoder for four production layers in the well was completed. By simulating the response law of downhole hydraulic signals and the stress analysis of each structure, the motion equation of the layer selection structure of the hydraulic decoder was established with 4 MPa as the unlocking pressure, and ADAMS was used to complete the dynamic simulation analysis. The variation results of displacement, angle, velocity and acceleration in the process of motion were obtained. Finally, the prototype of the hydraulic decoder was processed by stereo photo curing 3D printing equipment. Two hydraulic pumps were used to press alternately, and the selection of four layers of the hydraulic decoder was realized through two hydraulic control pipelines. The self-locking structure could realize the established function, and there was no interference and stuck between the components, which verifies the effectiveness of the design.
Abstract
In order to reduce the number of hydraulic decoders and hydraulic control pipelines in hydraulically controlled intelligent wells, reduce production costs and improve oil [...]
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A new calculation method of bearing reliability of tyre unloader based on heterogeneous dimensional interference model
J. Ling, R. Zhang, J. Shao, H. Zhang

Rev. int. métodos numér. cálc. diseño ing. (2023). Vol. 39, (2), 9

Abstract
Bearing is an important rotating support part of tyre unloader, and its fatigue reliability is an important part of the whole system reliability. Because of the huge alternating stress, the support bearing is required to have high fatigue life and reliability. In this paper, combined with stress-strength interference model and statistical theory, the life distribution of bearing steel material is predicted by using group test data; Based on the multi-rigid body dynamics and finite element numerical simulation platform, the reliability of the bearing of tyre unloader under different operating years was predicted by using the different dimensional interference model. The results show that the maximum resultant force of the bearing at the bottom rocker arm of the tyre unloader can reach 150kN, and the maximum transverse and longitudinal forces can reach 108kN and 78kN. When bearing the weight of the whole tyre and turning, the inertia force is the largest, the maximum stress value is 1316.2MPa, which occurs in the bearing inner ring and ball contact part. After the statistics, the stress amplitude distribution of the bearing conforms to Weibull distribution, and the life of the bearing follows lognormal distribution. After 105 tyre unloading, the fatigue reliability of the bearing is lower than 0.82, which is consistent with the actual working condition. Therefore, this model can be used to calculate the fatigue reliability of bearings conveniently and quickly, and provide certain theoretical support for the safety and fatigue reliability prediction of bearings.
Abstract
Bearing is an important rotating support part of tyre unloader, and its fatigue reliability is an important part of the whole system reliability. Because of the huge alternating [...]
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D5.2 (WP5): Call for the Selection of Interested Students
I. Ergas, N. Dozic, E. Sanz, P. Alonso, J. García-Espinosa

prodPhD OA (2023). 6

Abstract
This document presents the actions taken under Task 5.2 “Selection of students for the demonstration actions”, to launch the call for candidates to participate in the ProdPhD pilot action and prepare the ground for their selection. This call for candidates was open to all the fields of studies of the WEGEMT associates and other collaborating universities (see Table 1) and reached an estimated number of 500 PhD candidates from 29 universities at 16 European countries. The development of the pertinent actions commenced in the end of 2021 and was completed in M19 (June 2022), where communication via e-mails, video calls, phone calls and (limited, due to covid restrictions) physical visits was utilized.
Abstract
This document presents the actions taken under Task 5.2 “Selection of students for the demonstration actions”, to launch the call for candidates to participate [...]
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D4.3 (WP4): Documentation of the Online Training Environment
C. García

prodPhD OA (2023). 5

Abstract
The current report aims to provide all the information necessary to access to the prodPhD Online Training Environment. This document includes a description and the way to use the main platform capabilities for collaborative work, including social network solutions.
Abstract
The current report aims to provide all the information necessary to access to the prodPhD Online Training Environment. This document includes a description and the way to [...]
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D4.2 (WP4): prodPhD Online Training Environment
C. García

prodPhD OA (2023). 3

Abstract
The purpose of this document is to provide the information to access to the framework of the prodPhD Online Training Environment, which has been developed to meet the specific requirements of the project.
Abstract
The purpose of this document is to provide the information to access to the framework of the prodPhD Online Training Environment, which has been developed to meet the specific [...]
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D3.2 (WP3): Adaptation of the training material
B. Diep, C. García, E. Sanz

prodPhD OA (2023). 1

Abstract
This document presents the trained material IPAG has adapted from its existing material following the needs and expectations collected and analysed by WP1 and the specifications of WP3’s task T3.1. The overall goal of the adapted training material is to provide PhD students with the necessary and sufficient knowledge and skills to reflect on entrepreneurship and possible start and run their business, be they aspiring or confirming entrepreneurs. The different courses are therefore designed to allow them to tackle each of the business model template widely used to design businesses in terms of offering, customers, infrastructure and finances. That represent ten hard skills to be addressed. In addition, seven soft skills deemed as crucial for business success are proposed. All the materials will be proposed under PowerPoint format.
Abstract
This document presents the trained material IPAG has adapted from its existing material following the needs and expectations collected and analysed by WP1 and the specifications [...]
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Behaviour of self excited synchronous generator loaded by different sizing induction motors
N. Mounir, F. Said, M. Enany

Rev. int. métodos numér. cálc. diseño ing. (2023). Vol. 39, (2), 15

Abstract
The modeling of both the synchronous generator and induction motor which is represented by the rotor reference frame was studied where the modeling was established using MATLAB /SIMULINK software package for an isolated synchronous generator direct-on-line with different sized induction motors; 20, 50, and 100 Hp, at manually adjusted excitation voltage values which were maintained constant at 3.35, 4.55, and 6.21 V, respectively. The purpose of this work is to study the impact of a sudden increase in the load torque; from 0 to 150 % with an increase of 25 %, of full load torque was studied at a constant motor speed of 188.49 rad sec-1. On the other hand, the impact of a sudden decrease in the rotor speed by about 20 % from its rated value; from 188.49 to 150.79 rad sec-1 was also studied at full load torque of the same different-sized induction motors. These values were manually recorded and response variables of the generator including terminal voltage, current, output power, electromagnetic torque, and load angle were determined and represented as a function of time. The results illustrated the Changes in the terminal voltage, the current, the output power, the electromagnetic torque, and the load angle as parameters of a synchronous generator for different-sized induction motors.
Abstract
The modeling of both the synchronous generator and induction motor which is represented by the rotor reference frame was studied where the modeling was established using MATLAB [...]
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MI DEMOSTRACION DE LA CONJETURA DE COLLATZ
M. Cerdá Bennassar

Miguel Cerdá Bennassar's personal collection (2023). 2

Abstract
En este escrito, se analizan las propiedades de la raíz digital de los números y se busca una posible conexión con las secuencias de la Conjetura de Collatz.
Abstract
En este escrito, se analizan las propiedades de la raíz digital de los números y se busca una posible conexión con las secuencias de la Conjetura de [...]
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MY PROOF OF THE COLLATZ CONJECTURE
M. Cerdá Bennassar

Miguel Cerdá Bennassar's personal collection (2023). 1

Abstract
In this paper, the properties of the digital root of numbers are analyzed and a possible connection with the sequences of the Collatz Conjecture is sought. p { margin-bottom: 0.25cm; line-height: 115%; background: transparent }
Abstract
In this paper, the properties of the digital root of numbers are analyzed and a possible connection with the sequences of the Collatz Conjecture is sought. p { margin-bottom: [...]
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Bearing life prediction based on critical interface method under multiaxial random loading
J. Ling, L. Haoyu, Q. Wang, L. Cheng

Rev. int. métodos numér. cálc. diseño ing. (2023). Vol. 39, (2), 11

Abstract
The bearing was a key component of the mining machine tire unloader machine and was subjected to random multiaxial stress during operation. Therefore, the life prediction of bearing was of safety guidance. In this paper, a bearing life prediction method based on the critical plane method under multiaxial random loading was proposed. Firstly, a virtual prototype model was built based on the actual working conditions of the tire unloader machine to obtain the time load history of the bearing. Transient dynamic analysis of the bearing was carried out to obtain the triaxial stress-strain time histories at the hazardous locations of the bearing. A new coordinate system was established using the hazard node as the coordinate origin, and the location of the critical plane was searched for based on the critical plane multiaxial fatigue theory, combined with the maximum shear strain amplitude on the critical plane for multi-axial rain flow cycle counting to obtain the damage amount in each direction. At the same time, the life calculated from the maximum damage amount was used as the final life, resulting in a cycle count of the bearing of 268,303 cycles and a duration of 1490.58h. The results of this study could be used as a guide to predict the service life of the bearing in large machinery subjected to multiaxial random stress conditions.
Abstract
The bearing was a key component of the mining machine tire unloader machine and was subjected to random multiaxial stress during operation. Therefore, the life prediction [...]
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Baby Toys Market Size Analysis, Industry Outlook, & Region Forecast till 2027
I. v

Collection of European Research on Management and Business Economics (2023). 1

Abstract
The report’s authors have offered necessary details on the latest Baby Toys market trends and the crucial parameters impacting both short-term and long-term market growth. Its panoramic view of the Baby Toys market entails useful insights into the estimated Baby Toys market size, revenue share, and sales & distribution networks. Such helpful market insights are bound to help readers outline this industry’s key outcomes in the near future. The global baby toys market size is expected to reach USD 18.87 Billion at a revenue CAGR of 4.6% in 2030, according to latest analysis by Emergen Research. The market revenue growth can be attributed to the fact that toys manufactured for the use of infants and toddlers play an important role in the development of their thinking and decision-making skills at a very small age. As baby toys consist of various educational toys such as jigsaw puzzles, building sets, and others, which involve brainstorming activities making them capable enough to take initial decisions, especially for toddlers and preschoolers who are in their days to school and are away from parents. For this, manufacturers are indulging themselves in manufacturing innovative toys that are designed to stimulate learning in toddlers and preschoolers. Request Free Sample Copy (To Understand the Complete Structure of this Report [Summary + TOC]) @ https://www.emergenresearch.com/request-sample/1318 Market Drivers: The constant efforts of prominent players to develop newer and modern technologies and product advancements are expected to drive the growth of the industry over the coming years. The report studies the extensive business expansion plans and advancements in R&D activities and product portfolio. The report offers a clear understanding of the alliances in the market, such as mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures, collaborations, partnerships, agreements, product launches and brand promotions, and corporate deals. Market Scope: The report explains the scope of various commercial possibilities in the global Baby Toys market over the upcoming years. The estimated revenue build-up over the forecast years has been included in the report. The report analyzes the key market segments and sub-segments and provides deep insights into the market to assist readers with the formulation of lucrative strategies for business expansion. Competitive Terrain: The global Baby Toys industry is highly consolidated owing to the presence of renowned companies operating across several international and local segments of the market. These players dominate the industry in terms of their strong geographical reach and a large number of production facilities. The companies are intensely competitive against one another and excel in their individual technological capabilities, as well as product development, innovation, and product pricing strategies. The leading market contenders listed in the report are: LEGO System A/S, Hasbro., Mattel, Spin Master, Bandai Namco Holdings Inc., Nintendo., Kids2 Inc., Tomy, Horst Brandstätter Group, BASIC FUN! INC., and FUNSKOOL The research study examines historic data from 2018 and 2020 to draw forecasts until 2028. The timeline makes the report an invaluable resource for readers, investors, and stakeholders looking for key insights in readily accessible documents with the information presented in the form of tables, charts, and graphs. Emergen Research is Offering Limited Time Discount (Grab a Copy at Discounted Price Now)@ https://www.emergenresearch.com/request-discount/1318 Market Segmentations of the Baby Toys Market This market is segmented based on Types, Applications, and Regions. The growth of each segment provides accurate forecasts related to production and sales by Types and Applications, in terms of volume and value for the period between 2020 and 2028. This analysis can help readers looking to expand their business by targeting emerging and niche markets. Market share data is given on both global and regional levels. Regions covered in the report are North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa. Research analysts assess the market positions of the leading competitors and provide competitive analysis for each company. For this study, this report segments the global Baby Toys market on the basis of product, application, and region: Segments Covered in this report are: Product Type Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion; 2019-2030) Soft Toys & Dolls Board Games Construction Toys Vehicles Musical Toys & Rattles Educational Toys Others Sales Channel Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion; 2019-2030) Hypermarkets/Supermarkets Convenience Stores Specialty Stores Online Retailing Regional Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion; 2019–2030) North America U.S. Canada Mexico Europe Germany France U.K. Italy Spain Benelux Rest of Europe Asia Pacific China India Japan South Korea Rest of APAC Latin America Brazil Rest of LATAM Middle East & Africa Saudi Arabia UAE South Africa Turkey Rest of MEA Browse Full Report Description + Research Methodology + Table of Content + Infographics@ https://www.emergenresearch.com/industry-report/baby-toys-market Regional Outlook of the Baby Toys Market The global Baby Toys market has been categorized into several important geographical regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa. In this section, authors of the report have studied the presence of the global Baby Toys market across major geographies. Moreover, the estimated market share, market size, revenue contribution, sales network and distribution channel, and other crucial elements of each regional segment have been detailed in the report. Key Points of the Geographical Analysis: Data and information related to the consumption rate in each region Estimated increase in the consumption rate Proposed growth of the market share of each region Geographical contribution to market revenue Expected growth rate of the regional markets Objectives of the Report: Industrial structure analysis of the Baby Toys market by identification of various sub-segments Extensive analysis of key market players along with their SWOT analysis Competitive landscape benchmarking Analysis of Baby Toys market based on growth trends, futuristic outlook, and contribution to the total growth of the market Analysis of drivers, constraints, opportunities, challenges, and risks in the global Baby Toys market Comprehensive analysis of competitive developments such as expansions, agreements, Table of Contents Executive Summary Research Methodology Market Overview Regional Landscape Global Market Analysis and Forecast by Types Global Market Analysis and Forecast by Applications Global Market Analysis and Forecast by Regions North America Market Analysis and Forecast Europe Market Analysis and Forecast Asia Pacific Market Analysis and Forecast Latin America Market Analysis and Forecast Middle East & Africa Market Analysis and Forecast Competitive Landscape In conclusion, the Baby Toys Market report is an exhaustive database that will help readers formulate lucrative strategies. The Baby Toys Market report studies the latest economic scenario with value, drivers, constraints, growth opportunities, challenges, demand and supply ratio, production capacity, import/export status, growth rate, and others. Additionally, the report also undertakes SWOT Analysis and Porter’s Five Forces Analysis to study the leading companies. Request Cumtomization as per your specific requirement@ https://www.emergenresearch.com/request-history/1318 Latest Published Reports by Emergen Research: Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships Market https://www.emergenresearch.com/industry-report/maritime-autonomous-surface-ships-market Data Visualization Market https://www.emergenresearch.com/industry-report/data-visualization-market Dating Services Market https://www.emergenresearch.com/industry-report/dating-services-market Online Reading Platform Market https://www.emergenresearch.com/industry-report/online-reading-platform-market Aerogel Market https://www.emergenresearch.com/industry-report/aerogel-market Network Automation Market https://www.emergenresearch.com/industry-report/network-automation-market Drone Inspection And Monitoring Market https://www.emergenresearch.com/industry-report/drone-inspection-and-monitoring-market About Us: At Emergen Research, we believe in advancing with technology. We are growing market research and strategy consulting company with an exhaustive knowledge base of cutting-edge and potentially market-disrupting technologies that are predicted to become more prevalent in the coming decade. Contact Us: Eric Lee Corporate Sales Specialist Emergen Research | Web: www.emergenresearch.com Direct Line: +1 (604) 757-9756 E-mail: sales@emergenresearch.com Visit for More Insights: https://www.emergenresearch.com/insights Explore Our Custom Intelligence services | Growth Consulting Services Latest Reports: c5isr systems market | peritoneal dialysis market Trending Titles: ai in banking market | 5g fixed wireless access market
Abstract
The report’s authors have offered necessary details on the latest Baby Toys market trends and the crucial parameters impacting both short-term and long-term [...]
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Vitamins and Supplements Market: A View of the Current State and Future Outlook
J. Shar

Janna Shar's personal collection (2023). 2

Abstract
The Vitamins and Supplements Market research report is a comprehensive and vital document encompassing business strategies, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and emerging trends of the global Vitamins and Supplements Market. The report offers in-depth research and assessment of the key elements of the global Vitamins and Supplements Market. The research analysts have formulated this report through thorough primary and secondary research with a detailed analysis of the drivers, restraints, challenges, trends, and opportunities to provide a panoramic view of the Vitamins and Supplements Market. The vitamins and supplements market size reached USD 108.4 Billion in 2021 and is expected to register a revenue CAGR of 6.9% during the forecast period. Shift in consumer preferences due to increasing focus on health and prevention and rising prevalence of chronic diseases are some key factors projected to support market revenue growth between 2022 and 2030. Get a sample of the report @https://www.emergenresearch.com/request-sample/1361 In addition, increasing awareness among consumers regarding their health is another factor driving revenue growth of the market. Different types of products are increasingly being used for vitamins and supplements. Food and nutrition sectors have evolved to provide customers with a more tailored experience and make up for dietary loss through supplemental nutrition. In addition, rising prevalence of chronic diseases is another factor increasing demand for vitamins and supplements. The World Health Organization estimates that in 2021, prevalence of chronic diseases was around 57%. This indicates that over 50% of people worldwide have a chronic illness, with cancer, diabetes, and disorders of heart and lungs being the most prevalent. Every day, a range of vitamins, minerals, and nutrients are required to maintain good health and, more significantly, a strong immune system that fights off chronic diseases. Competitive Landscape: Furthermore, the report includes an in-depth analysis of the competitive landscape. The segment covers a comprehensive overview of the company profiles along with product profiles, production capacities, products/services, pricing analysis, profit margins, and manufacturing process developments. The report also covers strategic business measures undertaken by the companies to gain substantial market share. The report provides insightful information about recent mergers and acquisitions, product launches, collaborations, joint ventures, partnerships, agreements, and government deals. Some major companies operating in the global market include Herbalife International of America, Inc., Archer-Daniels Midland Company, Amway Corporation, Pfizer, Inc., Abbott, Nestle S.A., Nutrition and Biosciences (DuPont de Nemours, Inc.), Bayer AG, Glanbia PLC, and Arkopharma. Browse Full Report Description + Research Methodology + Table of Content + Infographics@https://www.emergenresearch.com/industry-report/vitamins-and-supplements-market On the basis of regional analysis, the market is segmented into the following regions: North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Middle East & Africa. The market is expected to be dominated by North American nations closely followed by European countries. Asia Pacific is expected to show a significant growth owing to recent advancements and rising investments in the R&D sector. Emergen Research has segmented the vitamins and supplements based on ingredient, form, application, end-users, type, distribution channel, and region: Ingredient Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2019 - 2030) Vitamins Supplements Form Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2019 - 2030) Tablets Capsules Soft Gels Powders Gummies Liquids Application Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2019 - 2030) Immunity Brain/Mental Health Bone & Joint Health Menopause Metabolic Health Beauty Care Digestive & Microbiome Health Others End-Users Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2019 - 2030) Adults Geriatric Pregnant Women Children Infants Type Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2019 - 2030) OTC Prescribed Distribution Channel Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2019 - 2030) Offline Online Emergen Research is Offering Limited Time Discount (Grab a Copy at Discounted Price Now)@https://www.emergenresearch.com/request-discount/1361 Key Benefits For Stakeholders: The report provides an extensive analysis of the current and future trends in the global minimally invasive surgical systems market to elucidate the imminent investment pockets. A detailed analysis of the factors that drive and restrict the growth of the minimally invasive surgical systems market is provided. Extensive analysis of key segments demonstrates the types of energy devices, access equipment, and visualization & documentation systems used in minimally invasive surgeries. A comprehensive analysis of the geographical landscape provides detailed information about various regions across North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa. The report offers a competitive landscape of the minimally invasive surgical systems market to assist players to gain insights into the competition scenario. Key companies operating in the market are profiled to provide valuable insights. Regional Outlook of Ed-Tech and Smart Classroom Market: North America U.S. Canada Mexico Europe Germany U.K. Italy France BENELUX Rest of Europe Asia Pacific China India Japan South Korea Rest of APAC Latin America Brazil Rest of LATAM Middle East & Africa Saudi Arabia U.A.E. South Africa Rest of MEA Request Customization as per your specific requirement@https://www.emergenresearch.com/request-for-customization/1361 About Us: At Emergen Research, we believe in advancing with technology. We are growing market research and strategy consulting company with an exhaustive knowledge base of cutting-edge and potentially market-disrupting technologies that are predicted to become more prevalent in the coming decade. Contact Us: Eric Lee Corporate Sales Specialist Emergen Research | Web: www.emergenresearch.com Direct Line: +1 (604) 757-9756 E-mail: sales@emergenresearch.com Visit for More Insights: https://www.emergenresearch.com/insights Explore Our Custom Intelligence services | Growth Consulting Services
Abstract
The Vitamins and Supplements Market research report is a comprehensive and vital document encompassing business strategies, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and emerging [...]
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Natural Language Processing Market: Opportunities and Challenges in a Rapidly Evolving Industry
J. Shar

Janna Shar's personal collection (2023). 1

Abstract
The Global Natural Language Processing Market report assesses the historical and current data along with a thorough analysis of the market dynamics. The report also sheds light on the significant market growth driving and restraining factors that are anticipated to influence the market growth through the forecast period. The Global Natural Language Processing Market studies the market scenario to offer growth projections for the Natural Language Processing Market industry for the forecast period of 2022-2030. Request Free Sample Copy (To Understand the Complete Structure of this Report [Summary + TOC]) @https://www.emergenresearch.com/request-sample/1437 The global Natural Language Processing (NLP) market size is expected to reach USD 98.05 Billion at a steady revenue CAGR of 25.7% in 2030, . Rising demand for cloud-based NLP solutions to reduce overall costs and enhance scalability can be attributed to the steady market revenue growth of NLP. Combining NLP on the cloud is a huge benefit given the quick growth of cloud computing services. It enables researchers to use the immense, on-demand computing capacity of the cloud to run NLP-related experiments on massive amounts of data processed using big data approaches. However, it has not sufficiently disseminated its cloud-based tools and applications, and there is little literature that covers the breadth of interdisciplinary effort. Big data, cloud computing, and natural language processing are all broad fields with opportunities and difficulties. These obstacles can be overcome, and a significant deal of potential for NLP and its applications can be unlocked by combining these sciences. Competitive Outlook: The global Natural Language Processing market is highly consolidated due to the presence of a large number of companies across this industry. These companies are known to make hefty investments in research and development projects. Also, they control a considerable portion of the overall market share, thus limiting the entry of new players into the sector. The global Natural Language Processing market report studies the prudent tactics undertaken by the leading market players, such as partnerships and collaborations, mergers & acquisitions, new product launches, and joint ventures. Key players in the market include IBM, Microsoft, Google, Amazon Web Services, Inc., Meta, 3M, Baidu, Apple Inc., SAS Institute Inc., IQVIA Emergen Research is Offering Limited Time Discount (Grab a Copy at Discounted Price Now)@https://www.emergenresearch.com/request-discount/1437 Key insights presented in the report: Market revenue shares by major business players, by type, by application, and market scope of global Natural Language Processing market Sales revenue by key players and new entrants Competitive analysis of the key players including aspects such as company overview, product or services specification, vendors, and buyers. Recent mergers, acquisitions, product launches, recent investments, and joint ventures Regional analysis to provide insight to recent trends and opportunities The global Natural Language Processing market report covers the analysis of drivers, trends, limitations, restraints, and challenges arising in the Natural Language Processing market. The report also discusses the impact of various other market factors affecting the growth of the market across various segments and regions. The report segments the market on the basis of types, applications, and regions to impart a better understanding of the Natural Language Processing market. Emergen Research has segmented the global Natural Language Processing (NLP) market on the basis of component, type, application, vertical, and region: Component Outlook (Revenue, USD Million; 2019–2030) Solutions Services Type Outlook (Revenue, USD Million; 2019–2030) Rule-Based Statistical Hybrid Application Outlook (Revenue, USD Million; 2019–2030) Customer Experience Management Virtual Assistant/Chatbots Social Media Monitoring Sentiment Analysis Other Applications Vertical Outlook (Revenue, USD Million; 2019–2030) Banking, Financial Services, & Insurance (BFSI) IT & ITES Retail & E-Commerce Healthcare & Life Sciences Other Verticals Browse Full Report Description + Research Methodology + Table of Content + Infographics@https://www.emergenresearch.com/industry-report/natural-language-processing-market Additionally, the report covers the analysis of the key players in the industry with a special focus on their global position, financial status, and their recent developments. Porter’s Five Forces Analysis and SWOT analysis have been covered by the report to provide relevant data on the competitive landscape. Detailed Regional Analysis covers: North America (U.S., Canada) Europe (U.K., Italy, Germany, France, Rest of EU) Asia-Pacific (India, Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, Rest of APAC) Latin America (Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Rest of Latin America) Middle East & Africa (Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., South Africa, Rest of MEA) The report addresses the following key points: The report estimates the expected market size from 2022-2030 The report provides a forecast of market drivers, restraints, and future opportunities for the Natural Language Processing market The report further analyses the changing market dynamics Regional analysis and segmentation of the market with analysis of the regions and segments expected to dominate the market growth Extensive competitive landscape mapping with profiles of the key competitors In-depth analysis of business strategies and collaborations such as mergers and acquisitions adopted by the key companies Revenue forecast, country scope, application insights, and product insights Request Customization as per your specific requirement@https://www.emergenresearch.com/request-for-customization/1437 Latest Published Reports by Emergen Research: https://www.biospace.com/article/cold-plasma-market-growth-at-a-cagr-of-15-3-percent-during-forecast-period-2020-2028-/ https://www.biospace.com/article/healthcare-analytics-market-growth-at-a-cagr-of-27-9-percent-during-forecast-period-2020-2028-/ https://www.biospace.com/article/healthcare-business-intelligence-market-growth-at-a-cagr-of-14-6-percent-during-forecast-period-2020-2028-/ https://www.biospace.com/article/healthcare-cloud-computing-market-growth-at-a-cagr-of-17-9-percent-during-forecast-period-2020-2028/ https://www.biospace.com/article/healthcare-crm-market-growth-at-a-cagr-of-13-8-percent-during-forecast-period-2020-2028-/ https://www.biospace.com/article/healthcare-it-market-growth-at-a-cagr-of-15-4-percent-during-forecast-period-2020-2028-/ About Us: At Emergen Research, we believe in advancing with technology. We are growing market research and strategy consulting company with an exhaustive knowledge base of cutting-edge and potentially market-disrupting technologies that are predicted to become more prevalent in the coming decade. Contact Us: Eric Lee Corporate Sales Specialist Emergen Research | Web: www.emergenresearch.com Direct Line: +1 (604) 757-9756 E-mail: sales@emergenresearch.com Visit for More Insights: https://www.emergenresearch.com/insights Explore Our Custom Intelligence services | Growth Consulting Services
Abstract
The Global Natural Language Processing Market report assesses the historical and current data along with a thorough analysis of the market dynamics. The report also sheds [...]
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Descrierea bazei de date Fondurile UE absorbite de municipiile din România 2016-2021
M. Marin, A. Chiș, B. Corad, E. Glăvan

EU-FAR (2023). 4

Abstract
Fondurile UE raportate de fiecare localitate (municipalitate) în rapoartele anuale de execuție bugetară. Datele sunt prelucrate de autori, pe baza informațiilor publicate de Ministerul Dezvoltării, Lucrărilor Publice și Administrației, Direcția Politici Fiscale și Bugetare Locale.
Abstract
Fondurile UE raportate de fiecare localitate (municipalitate) în rapoartele anuale de execuție bugetară. Datele sunt prelucrate de autori, pe baza informațiilor publicate [...]
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Link between the microstructure and the durability of polycrystalline materials: a fatigue damage model in an aluminium alloy
M. Lenglet, A. Ask, S. Forest, P. Kanouté, S. Kruch, M. Lenglet

Manon Lenglet's personal collection (2023). 1

Abstract
In polycrystalline alloys, fatigue damage is strongly influenced by the microstructure. Nowadays crystal plasticity models are used in order to take into account the crystallography and microstructural mechanisms but there is no consensus on crack initiation sites and their most significant mechanisms. The present work combines experimental tests and numerical simulations in order to understand and predict the physical mechanisms that lead to crack formation in high cycle fatigue in high-strength aluminium alloys for aerospace applications. The numerical simulations include a two parameters kinematic hardening. Experiments highlight the importance of two phenomena in fatigue crack initiation in connection with the microstructure. The first aspect is the surface roughness [1]; and our simulations succeed in putting forward the intrusion/extrusion phenomenon. The interest of large deformations in simulations is also discussed because of their effect on grain re-orientation and thus in surface roughness. The second phenomenon is progressive deformations; and the model achieves to account for it through local ratchetting and its effect on the crack initiation. We also intend to model stress relaxation, as its role is yet to be determined. In order to be able to extrapolate the mechanical behaviour over a large number of cycles, it is important to find the stabilized cycle [2]. Parallel simulations allow this to be done for representative crystalline aggregates. Finally, different macroscopic and mostly microscopic fatigue initiation parameters [3] are compared such as the Fatemi-Socie parameter, the stored energy or the commonly used cumulative plastic strain. It leads us to multiple fatigue site initiations, which we can compare with experimental results. The aim is to more accurately predict the site of fatigue crack initiation and the predominant mechanisms in fatigue crack initiation.
Abstract
In polycrystalline alloys, fatigue damage is strongly influenced by the microstructure. Nowadays crystal plasticity models are used in order to take into account the crystallography [...]
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Cálculo de variaciones :Algunos ejemplos. Ecuación de Jacobi
A. Lechuga

Antonio Lechuga's personal collection (2023). 1

Abstract
El cálculo de variaciones es una herramienta matem´atica muy importante que ,en algunos casos,se emplea para resolver problemas en la naturaleza de contenido práctico e incluso teórico.Es por ello que presentamos algunos ejemplos sencillos resueltos completamente con la llamada teoría de Jacobi de los puntos conjugados
Abstract
El cálculo de variaciones es una herramienta matem´atica muy importante que ,en algunos casos,se emplea para resolver problemas en la naturaleza de contenido [...]
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A Review on Using Robotic Automation in Accounting Firms
A. MinaieeNamin

European Accounting Review (2023). 1

Abstract
The Robotic process automation (RPA) is software pre-configured to execute defined business rules in the context of a stand-alone application software. This type of technology is important and practical for the auditing profession because auditing has clear and systematic rules and also a major part of its operation is done through the business systems of the owners. A part of the audit process that has a specific workflow and repeatable judgments is a good option for performing an automated robotic process. The purpose of this study is to develop a framework for applying the automated robotic process in auditing. The use of such male software in auditing reduces costs, increases operational efficiency and more advanced analysis. However, the automated robotic process has challenges in deployment, such as: reduction of manpower, items that need multiple attention, privacy, security and so on. In a general analysis, it can be said that due to the continuous development of technology, auditing firms should move towards automation of their processes and if they do not use technology properly, they will lose their competitive advantage. '''Key words''': Robotic process automation, Audit Analysis, Audit Future, Information Technology, Emerging Technologies. '''Reference''' to this paper should be made as follows: Minaiee, A., ‘A Review on Using Robotic Automation in Accounting Firms’, ''Eur. Account. Rev'', Vol. 32, No. 2, pp.1410–1433. '''Biographical notes:''' Amirhossein Minaiee is a research fellow in accounting at Islamic Azad University, West Tehran Branch, Tehran. He has worked at many companies as a researcher and sales manager and has much experience in business and data mining. Also, he took many courses in accounting and business. His main area of research is robotic accounting and business management.
Abstract
The Robotic process automation (RPA) is software pre-configured to execute defined business rules in the context of a stand-alone application software. This type of technology [...]
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Research on the distribution of debris flow impact on the upstream surface of the check dam
X. Yu, W. Li, G. Zhang

zahra khodadadi personal collection (2023). 3

Abstract
The impact force of debris flow is not only an important indicator of the risk assessment of debris flow and the strength impact resistance of buildings against debris flow, but also an important parameter in the design of various debris flow prevention projects (such as the check dam and the drainage channel, etc.). The pressure sensors are arranged at different positions (monitoring points) on the upstream face of the check dam. By changing the slope of the drainage channel, the bulk density of debris flow and the slope gradient of the upstream face of the check dam, the time history curves of the impact force at the monitoring points under different experiment conditions are obtained. The characteristic value of impact force of debris flow acting on the surface of sand retaining dam is analyzed, and the evolution law of mean value and maximum value of impact force of debris flow at the same detection location with the above conditions is obtained. The mean value and maximum value of debris flow impact force at dif-ferent detection locations under the same working condition are analyzed to obtain the evolu-tion law of debris flow impact force at different locations, and then the distribution trend of debris flow impact force on the upstream face of the check dam is obtained. The research results provide scientific and reasonable theoretical basis and technical support for the stability analysis of the check dam, so as to better serve the disaster prevention and reduction of debris flow, which will improve the technical level of the debris flow prevention project to a certain extent.
Abstract
The impact force of debris flow is not only an important indicator of the risk assessment of debris flow and the strength impact resistance of buildings against debris flow, [...]
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Evaluation of forest residues of potential species to obtain carbon as clean energy in the Ecuadorian Amazon
J. González, R. Darío Ledesma, R. Abreu Naranjo

Enfoque UTE - Scientific Engineering Journal (2023). Vol. 14, (1), 4

Abstract
Timber residues due to its use for the construction industry and others provided by the secondary forest and its high content of lignocellulosic material for energy purposes, our objective was to evaluate the forest residues of six species to obtain carbon as clean energy. , which represents great interest for the energy industry. Through the methodology of the study of inventories and sampling of wood residues from sawmills that was in the four cantons of the province of Pastaza, through instrumental techniques of physical, chemical and thermal analysis, the parameters studied were the biomass potential and residue, density, humidity, ashes, volatiles, fixed carbon and higher calorific value (immediate analysis), carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen and sulfur (CHONS), which allowed obtaining the thermochemical properties, reaching the main results of energy potential, of these three species that can be used for clean energy, due to the amount of ash found in the analyzes below 1% and volatiles (60-80%) of these residues, which clearly shows that it prevents the formation of scale in equipment and damage, in relation to its fixed carbon content on average of 14.78% and its superior calorific value 19.72 Mj/kg, assessing the fact industrial reliability for its energy use that will generate 515.62 GW of clean energy in electrical thermal power annually to meet the needs of vulnerable areas of the Amazon region.
Abstract
Timber residues due to its use for the construction industry and others provided by the secondary forest and its high content of lignocellulosic material for energy purposes, [...]
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Adaptability of regression algorithms to protein Plant behavior
H. Uvidia-Cabadiana, P. Estrada-Jiménez, R. Herrera-Herrera, L. Hernández-Montiel, D. Verdecia-Acosta, J. Ramírez-de la Ribera, P. Noguera-López, E. Chacón-Marcheco

Enfoque UTE - Scientific Engineering Journal (2023). Vol. 14, (1), 2

Abstract
The behavior of components of protein plant is of vital importance for animals that consume them in their diet. The objective of this research is to evaluate regression algorithms, to determine the behavior of the expressions that best adapt to the procedures of a traditional laboratory and to estimate the chemical components of protein plants, in this sense the MULAN library of java has been used, that contain automatic learning algorithms capable of adapting to dissimilar problems. Three data set were created for each species treated in this study; each of these include the main elements to be evaluate in each experiment, these are delimits by: secondary metabolites, cell wall components and digestibility element for training files one, two and three, respectively; subsequently, they were evaluated through learning supervised and cross-validation of each to determine the best fit by aRMSE (Average Root Mean Square Error). The learning results were compare with previous experiments, where there was a learning variant that contained in a single dataset all the components to be evaluates in a single prediction. The result of the comparison shows that the lazy algorithms based on instances have a better learning behavior than the others evaluate.
Abstract
The behavior of components of protein plant is of vital importance for animals that consume them in their diet. The objective of this research is to evaluate regression algorithms, [...]
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EU FAR Newsletter December, 2022
M. Marin, A. Chiș, B. Corad, E. Glăvan

(2022).

Abstract
The document contain the static version of EU FAR Newsletter sent in December, 2022.
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The Richer and the Poorer facing EU funds in Romania: the case of white spots
M. Marin, E. Glăvan, A. Chiș, B. Corad

Abstract
Presentation at The 9th International Conference Economic Scientific Research – Theoretical, Empirical and Practical Approaches. "Constraints and opportunities in shaping the future. New Approaches to Economics and Policy Making," Bucharest, November 24-25, 2202
Abstract
Presentation at The 9th International Conference Economic Scientific Research – Theoretical, Empirical and Practical Approaches. "Constraints and opportunities [...]
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EU FAR Project: Description of Database EU Funds absorbed by Romanian Municipalities 2016-2021
M. Marin, A. Chiș, B. Corad, E. Glăvan

(2022).

Abstract
EU funds reported by each locality (municipality) in their annual budget execution reports. The data is processed by the authors, based on the information published by the Ministry of Development, Public Works and Administration, Directorate for Local Fiscal and Budgetary Policies.
Abstract
EU funds reported by each locality (municipality) in their annual budget execution reports. The data is processed by the authors, based on the information published by the [...]
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A fractional numerical study on a plant disease model with replanting and preventive treatment
Z. Alqahtani, A. Hagag

Rev. int. métodos numér. cálc. diseño ing. (2023). Vol. 39, (3), 27

Abstract
Food security has become a significant issue due to the growing human population. In this case, a significant role is played by agriculture. The essential foods are obtained mainly from plants. Plant diseases can, however, decrease both food production and its quality. Therefore, it is substantial to comprehend the dynamics of plant diseases as they can provide insightful information about the dispersal of plant diseases. In order to investigate the dynamics of plant disease and analyze the effects of strategies of disease control, a mathematical model can be applied. We show that this model provides the non-negative solutions that population dynamics requires. The model was investigated by using the Atangana-Baleanu in Caputo sense (ABC) operator which is symmetrical to the Caputo-Fabrizio (CF) operator with a different function. Whereas the ABC operator uses the generalized Mittag-Leffler function while the CF operator employs the exponential kernel. For the proposed model, we have displayed the local and global stability of a nonendemic and an endemic equilibrium, existence and uniqueness theorems. By applying the fractional Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method, we have implemented numerical solutions to illustrate the theoretical analysis.
Abstract
Food security has become a significant issue due to the growing human population. In this case, a significant role is played by agriculture. The essential foods are obtained [...]
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zahra khodadadi personal collection (2023). 2
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EFFECT OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, HUMANITARIAN SERVICES AND TRANSPORT LOGISTICS ON PORT OPERATIONS IN NIGERIA: EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT
. (1)Edih, U. (PhD)., . (2)Dbright, O. Agboro., . (3)Nwafili, A. Kennedy, . , . (4)Faghawari, D. Nyanayon, U. Edih

International Journal of Multidisciplinary Educational Research and Innovation (2023). 1

Abstract
This study examines the effect of emergency management, humanitarian services and transport logistics on port operations in Nigeria. Its focus is to determine the significance of both emergency management strategies and humanitarian aids during and after emergencies in Nigerian ports. The study adopts multiple regression models to analyze the primary data generated from the field using structured questionnaire. These data were validated using content and sampling validity techniques to ascertain its appropriateness for the study. It was confirmed that disasters or emergencies are retrogressive factors that can cause sudden and massive disruptions to operations in the ports leading to destruction of lives and properties, huge financial loss, destruction of infrastructure and closure of ports, either temporarily or permanently. However, it is proven that effective disaster preparedness/ awareness reduces the hardships experienced during emergencies and that humanitarian services/logistics cannot be done without in rescuing and recovery operations. The study concludes that effective disaster management strategies and efficient humanitarian services have positive and significant effects on port operations in Nigeria and recommends the following measures; every port should have a standard disaster management unit (SDMU) among others.
Abstract
This study examines the effect of emergency management, humanitarian services and transport logistics on port operations in Nigeria. Its focus is to determine the significance [...]
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Influence of boundary conditions on oxygen distribution in an organ-on-a-chip platform
V. Carvalho, N. Rodrigues, R. Rodrigues, M. Bañobre, R. Lima, S. Teixeira

eccomas2022.

Abstract
Organ-on-a-chip (OoC) platforms have revolutionized the drug development process by offering an effective alternative to animal models. These advanced microfluidic platforms mimic the organ functions at a microscale, and they can be produced at a large scale and at a lower price. Despite the variety of OoC models developed up to now, the combination of numerical simulations with experimental procedures has been of paramount importance in the development of more realistic and effective OoC devices. In addition, a better understanding of the physical phenomena happening in OoC can be obtained. In the present work, fluid flow numerical simulations were carried out in an OoC aiming to evaluate the influence of imposing different inlet velocities on the oxygen distribution along the device. This is of great importance to understand if the oxygen that reaches the cells is adequate for their culture. The results showed that for the geometry tested, with four organ models in parallel, by increasing the inlet velocity, the dissolved oxygen where cells are cultured also increases. This proves the importance of using numerical simulations for improving the performance of the experimental tests and optimizing the flow conditions.
Abstract
Organ-on-a-chip (OoC) platforms have revolutionized the drug development process by offering an effective alternative to animal models. These advanced microfluidic platforms [...]
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The research of pricing mechanisms of public procurement system in the Russian Federation
S. Belev, A. Efremov, A. Kireeva, A. Zolotareva, E. Leonov, E. Matveev, I. Sokolov, A. Komarnitskaya, O. Suchkova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 70

Abstract
This article presents the main results of research on the topic of the research of the pricing mechanisms within the public procurement system in the Russian Federation. The goal of this article is to estimate the effect of the pricing mechanism on the efficiency of public procurement system in the Russian Federation. This research examines the initial maximum contract price (IMCP) mechanism as one possible reason for persistent inefficiency of the public procurement system. The authors discuss composite auctions (in which the winner is selected based on more than just price criteria) in the procurement of the results of research and development (R&D) work in Russia. It is found that unscrupulous customers can collude with suppliers to manipulate (overstate) the IMCP and restrict competition, which results in a higher final contract price and losses to the state budget. Using the metric of interaction frequency, we identified suppliers potentially affiliated with the customers. The results of econometric modeling suggest that potentially affiliated suppliers win the auctions with bids closer to the initial maximum contract price (IMCP) than independent suppliers. This result is observed regardless of specification changes and different evaluation methods. Potentially affiliated bidders have higher quality scores in contests with potentially affiliated organizers. At the same time, independent participants receive lower scores in such auctions. Therefore, a potentially affiliated bidder can set a higher price, winning due to overstated quality criteria
Abstract
This article presents the main results of research on the topic of the research of the pricing mechanisms within the public procurement system in the Russian Federation. The [...]
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"ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF SPATIAL WEIGHT MATRIXES ON ASSESSMENTS OF REGIONAL INDICATORS»
T. Gorshkova, M. Turuntseva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 71

Abstract
The article is devoted to modeling the spatial dependence between macroeconomic indicators of Russian regions, using spatial weight matrices. The authors perform a comparative analysis of five matrices taking into account only the values of the indicators themselves in neighboring regions, without the influence of other macroeconomic series of data. The article analyzes papers that describe ways to build weighting matrices, both based only on geographic data and on economic indicators; the five matrices are applied to three models built on Russian regional data. The study is based on regional inflation and GRP data. In addition to modeling on data about all regions, spatial models were also built separately for the Western and Eastern parts of Russia. Based on the results of the study, we can conclude that for a number of GRP figures, the choice of spatial matrix significantly affects the ratio estimates and errors of in-sample forecasts. The way in which these matrices are considered in the model is of secondary importance. For regional inflation, on the contrary, the model type is more important, and most matrices give nearly identical results in each model.
Abstract
The article is devoted to modeling the spatial dependence between macroeconomic indicators of Russian regions, using spatial weight matrices. The authors perform a comparative [...]
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INVESTMENT RISKS MANAGEMENT OF PRIVATE INVESTORS IN THE RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET
A. Abramov, A. Radygin, M. Chernova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 72

Abstract
The goal of this study is to develop a system of measures to increase investment activity and limit the risks of the private investors in the stock market. The object of research is the behavior of private investors in the formation of their individual portfolios. The research method includes analysis of Bloomberg’s historical data series on the return and risk of financial instruments, various methods for quantifying the investor's risk profile. The work features a comparative analysis of various approaches to assessing the individual risk profile of private investors based on analyzing the international experience. The current financial market regulation system is improving slowly and in many ways lags behind the changes in the stock market. The legal prerequisites for the accumulation of long-term savings by the population have not yet been created, the measures proposed by the regulator to limit investments and reduce risk exposure for certain categories of citizens cause serious debate in society. The relevance of the study is explained by a lack of theoretical and empirical studies of the specifics of individual investments in the domestic stock market, the behavior of private investors and the possibilities of risk management in asset allocation. The novelty of the study lies in adapting the best risk profiling practices for Russian private investors, identifying recommendations on asset allocation across all available time horizons, and demonstrating the benefits of diversification not only in the domestic but also in the global market. The main result of the work is the development of methodological approaches necessary to ensure that the generated individual portfolios of private investors match their risk profile. In addition, the main results of the work include the identified advantages of the portfolio approach, in terms of both reducing risks and increasing returns. A risk map of instruments available to a private investor has been compiled. We identified the basic rules and patterns for investing in the Russian market in the long term. The main conclusion of the work is that it is extremely important for the Russian investor to use both factor-based and widely diversified portfolios, as well as global diversification regardless of the risk profile and horizon. In the future, the development of our work aimed at studying private investment in various countries will contribute to the development of the institution of private investment in Russia.
Abstract
The goal of this study is to develop a system of measures to increase investment activity and limit the risks of the private investors in the stock market. The object of research [...]
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIATION OF THE POST-SOVIET VILLAGE: SOCIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE FACTORS OF RURAL TRANSFORMATION
A. Nikulin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 73

Abstract
The social and economic differentiation in the countryside is a classic issue of agrarian sociology; however, in the post-Soviet period it was considered not only by rural sociologists, but also by agrarian economists and geographers. The object of the research is dual in nature: on the one hand, it is a number of rural regions in which the processes of social and economic differentiation were studied; on the other hand, it is a number of rural communities and rural households which undergo such processes in varying degrees. The study aims at identification of the main types of social-economic differentiation in the countryside and at describing its dynamics in different social groups of the Russian countryside. To achieve this goal, the authors consider social transformation processes in the main rural strata of the post-Soviet period, compare processes of social and economic differentiation in rural areas in various countries, and take into account gender and generational characteristics of different forms of rural differentiation
Abstract
The social and economic differentiation in the countryside is a classic issue of agrarian sociology; however, in the post-Soviet period it was considered not only by rural [...]
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MODELING AND FORECASTING OF THE WHOLESALE MARKET INDICATORS OF ELECTRIC POWER IN RUSSIA USING COMBINATION METHODS DATA OF DIFFERENT FREQUENCY
A. Kaukin, K. Kas'yanova, V. Kosarev, Y. Miller

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 74

Abstract
The aim of this study is to develop new methods for forecasting time series with data of different frequencies among exogenous factors; forecasting the indicators of the wholesale electricity market in Russia using methods of combining data of different frequencies, including those based on algorithms of convolutional neural networks. The structure of the work is presented in four sections. The first section analyzes methods for forecasting time series with combining data of different frequencies. The second section presents the architecture of a convolutional network that allows the use of data of different frequencies. The third section presents a price model for the wholesale electricity market using data from the Atlas of Russian Energy. The fourth section presents recommendations and main conclusions of the work.
Abstract
The aim of this study is to develop new methods for forecasting time series with data of different frequencies among exogenous factors; forecasting the indicators of the wholesale [...]
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Updating of Input-Output tables in Russia by machine learning methods
V. Potashnikov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 75

Abstract
Input-output tables are the basis for many types of analysis of the real sector, which are necessary to build a well-thought-out long-term and short-term policy. Evaluation of input-output tables is an expensive and time-consuming procedure. At the same time, national statistical agencies publish additional forecast information, which makes it possible to extend the input-output tables, for example, output and intermediate consumption by sector. The main methods of extending the RAS tables (or its modification GRAS) and Cross Entropy, use data on intermediate demand, the calculation of which requires additional time-consuming work. The use of information only for the previous period and the current period is the main disadvantage of this method. In recent decades, machine learning methods have been gaining popularity, the main advantage of which is finding relationships that can be hard to identify, for example, due to the large dimension of the task or the lack of evidence of cause-and-effect relationships. These methods have proven themselves well in all kinds of image recognition tasks, voice-to-text conversion, and so on. Currently, attempts are being made to apply machine learning methods to economic problems. The application of machine learning methods to the task of updating inputoutput tables carries a scientific novelty. The purpose of the study is to extend the input-output tables by machine learning methods. The method of extending the input-output tables using convolutional neural networks is the result of the work, as well as the forecast of the coefficients of the direct cost matrix for Russia. Conclusion: the use of input-output tables can improve the quality of forecasts of input-output tables. Recommendations: it is necessary to continue the research in this direction
Abstract
Input-output tables are the basis for many types of analysis of the real sector, which are necessary to build a well-thought-out long-term and short-term policy. Evaluation [...]
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ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF RUSSIAN FIRMS EXIT TO EXPORT MARKETS WITH SELECTION EFFECTS INCLUDED
A. Knobel'

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 76

Abstract
A prerequisite for sustainable economic growth Russian economy is to increase the efficiency of enterprises. One of factors that can lead to this is the expansion of Russia's involvement in international trade. The most obvious are the consequences of the effects, related to the growth in the number of more efficient exporting companies as a result of increased international specialization. Enterprises with a positive export status, as a rule, are larger, therefore, with an increase in the level of involvement countries in international trade, production resources flow towards more productive exporting companies, which leads to an increase in the overall level economic efficiency. At the same time, under the hypothesis of learning through exports, the entry of new companies into export markets will lead to an increase in their efficiency, and hence the growth of the efficiency of the Russian economy as a whole. Thus, economic growth can be associated with three regularities: firstly, the number of exporting firms increases, and secondly, at the beginning of the export activities, according to the assumption of learning through export activity, firms that have entered the foreign market become more efficient, thirdly, exporting enterprises are becoming larger, which leads to the spillover of factors production to more efficient firms with a positive export status. This paper explores the hypothesis of learning through exports. A task is complicated by the fact that direct measurement leads to system errors. Exit to foreign markets is associated with overcoming barriers, which leads to additional costs for businesses. Benefit from this kind of activity can only firms are initially more productive, which corresponds to the selection effect. It turns out that in a simple comparison of firms with different export status, exporters will be more efficient, but it will be impossible to say what share of the effect of learning through export in this difference.
Abstract
A prerequisite for sustainable economic growth Russian economy is to increase the efficiency of enterprises. One of factors that can lead to this is the expansion of Russia's [...]
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Main Approaches to the Use of Time-Varying Parameter Models in Macroeconomic Modeling
M. Kazakova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 55

Abstract
Time-varying parameter models have been widely spread in macroeconomic studies carried out over the past 20 years. Following the seminal papers in this field, various authors began to apply such models to analyze the time-varying behavior of such macroeconomic parameters as volatility, long-term economic growth, trend inflation, the persistence of inflation and oil prices, as well as the dependence of the main macroeconomic variables on oil prices. This review provides a methodological basis for using time-varying parameter models as one of the underlying tools of macroeconomic modeling and forecasting, as such models allow taking into account temporary changes in the relationships between different variables.
Abstract
Time-varying parameter models have been widely spread in macroeconomic studies carried out over the past 20 years. Following the seminal papers in this field, various authors [...]
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Financial Sector Efficiency as a Factor maximizing long-term economic growth rates
Y. Danilov, D. Pivovarov, I. Davydov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 56

Abstract
The paper analyzes various concepts of financial sector efficiency, and, based on this analysis, the authors established financial sector indicators that are the most appropriate for empirical research and for the establishment of key performance indicators for financial regulators. The authors develop a set of performance indicators, based on which they analyze changes in various aspects of efficiency of the Russian financial sector, including its usefulness for the investment recipients and for households, as the main suppliers of investment resources. Based on the Russian data, empirical studies of the impact of efficiency on economic growth have been conducted. Proposals for the construction of a set of key performance indicators that evaluate the performance of social and economic functions by the financial sector, its participation in the achievement of strategic national objectives and the level of financial development are formulated.
Abstract
The paper analyzes various concepts of financial sector efficiency, and, based on this analysis, the authors established financial sector indicators that are the most appropriate [...]
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USING GOOGLE TRENDS FOR PREDICTIONS: REVIEW AND APPLICATIONS FOR RETAIL SALES FORECASTING
A. Zubarev, Y. Golovanova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 57

Abstract
Due to the growing popularity of the Internet, many purchases are made in online stores. The Google Trends service collects data based on user requests and breaks them down into categories. In this paper, we review the existing forecasting methods using this service, and make an attempt to predict the dynamics of retail sales using macroeconomic variables and categories in Google Trends corresponding to various commodity groups of food and non-food products. For each type of retail, we build the best predictive models from macroeconomic variables and try to improve them by adding trends.
Abstract
Due to the growing popularity of the Internet, many purchases are made in online stores. The Google Trends service collects data based on user requests and breaks them down [...]
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REFORM OF SCHOOL EDUCATION OF THE PREREVOLUTIONARY (1917) PERIOD: LANGUAGES OF THE PEOPLES OF RUSSIA
O. Artemenko, M. Kuzmin, S. Anzorova, T. Borgoyakova, P. Gasanova, A. Subrakov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 58

Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by an examination of the processes of reforming the education system in the Russian Empire between 1726 and 1917, which was carried out with the aim of modernizing the society and overcoming universal illiteracy. It is the degree of development of the education system that ensures the level of literacy, education of the population, forms certain personality qualities, which contributes to the state’s economic development and social growth. In this context, issues related to organizing education for the peoples of the Russian Empire, which was implemented within the framework of the doctrine of State integrity of a multinational State, deserve special attention in a multi-ethnic state, historically formed not by migrants but by local residents. Only Russia has such experience, and it needs to be studied. Subject of study. Reform of the education system from 1726 to 1917. The purpose of the study. Study of the experience of the Russian Empire in organizing educational activities aimed at forming interethnic harmony, preserving the integrity of a multinational state. Research tasks. Identification and description of periods of educational reform in the Russian Empire. Research methods. In solving specific research problems, comparative historical, biographical, synchronous, and diachronic methods were used. Sources of information. The implementation of the research tasks required a comprehensive identification of both archival and published sources: in the Russian State Historical Archive (RGIA), in the State Archive of the Russian Federation (GARF). In the Russian State Library (RGB), the authors reviewed the holdings of the Ministry of Education and its Departments, verbatim reports of the State Duma, personal funds of the Ministers of Education (V.G. Glazov, Peter M. von Kaufmann, I.I. Tolstoy, A.N. Schwartz). In the scientific archive of the Russian Academy of Education (RAO), documents were revealed in the collection of historical documents and the legacy of prominent teachers, public figures V.P. Vakhterov, N.V. Chekhov and others. Results of the study. The materials revealed and described are introduced into scientific circulation in a systematic way for the first time. They help restore the stages of formation 6 of the education system in the Russian Empire and the results of its reform. The systematization of these diverse sources, complementing and clarifying each other, made it possible to restore a fairly solid picture of the formation of public education in the Russian Empire. The sources described contain valuable material for studying the development of education in the pre-revolutionary period, reveal the experience of the state in the formation of interethnic harmony, preserving the integrity of a multinational state. Findings of the study. The need to improve the literacy and education of the population of the state determines the economic, political, socio-cultural development of a multinational society. The effectiveness of modernization is more dependent on, and determined by, reforms in education, in the formation of a certain type of personality, which must be considered in a historical context. The study was conducted in 2021 by the employees of the Research Center for National Education Problems of the RANEPA Federal Institute for the Development of Education (FIRO).
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by an examination of the processes of reforming the education system in the Russian Empire between 1726 and 1917, which was carried [...]
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DIRECTIONS AND FACTORS OF THE PLANNED EDUCATIONAL MIGRATION OF SCHOOLCHILDREN IN 9 AND 11 GRADES: RESULTS OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
D. Loginov, E. Semionova, G. Tokareva, I. Yakovlev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 59

Abstract
The uneven territorial and population development of the educational infrastructure and the labor market, the differentiation of educational aspirations and resource capabilities of different social groups, the possibility of enrolment to educational organizations in different regions of Russia based on the examination results explain the relevance of researching the scale, motives, directions and restrictions of educational migration of the Russian school graduates. It is important to find out what groups of modern youth and their families develop the attitudes towards educational migration, what resources are required to implement these attitudes, which directions of actual and potential educational migration in the context of regions and types of settlements there are. Revealing stable routes of educational migration of the Russian youth is an urgent research problem. The main goal of this work is to determine the directions and factors of the planned educational migration of the 9th and 11th grade schoolchildren for receiving secondary vocational and higher education, on the basis of sociological data. The objectives of the study are, in particular, to identify the grounds for demand by households with schoolchildren in graduation grades to receive secondary vocational and higher education outside the settlement or region of current residence; identification of the motives for obtaining education outside the settlement or region of current residence; analysis of the educational trajectories of schoolchildren in graduation grades involving educational migration. The methodology of sociological research involves the use of a combined quantitative and qualitative toolkit, carried out using specially developed field documents. The main findings of the study are as follows: it was discovered that the parents are divided into two groups of comparable size – those inclined towards educational migration (56%) and those planning to receive vocational education in the settlement of residence; the composition of these groups varied significantly depending on the settlement types and educational aspirations; to a large extent, when planning to receive secondary vocational education and higher education, the younger generation repeats the educational trajectory of their parents, reproducing the family status. The research results can be used in the interests of public education authorities to assess the consequences of educational migration for the socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation.
Abstract
The uneven territorial and population development of the educational infrastructure and the labor market, the differentiation of educational aspirations and resource capabilities [...]
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FIXING OR PERSPECTIVE MODELING SOCIAL RITUAL? CONSTRUCTING A NEW ETHICS IN HOMING BY JOHN TOWLER
M. Reutin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 60

Abstract
This work consists of two chapters and focuses on the formation of a new bourgeois ethics within the framework of the medieval mentality. This process is considered on the material of German folk preachers of the first half of the 14th century. The personalities of the preachers (16 names in total) are studied in Chapter 1; Chapter 2 contains an analysis of their doctrine, taken in its integral form. This teaching is based on Neoplatonist emanationism, according to which God is present in man as his image, a “spark”, a “synteresis”. God reveals himself in man's actions and in all his outward manifestations, so that man is basically an instrument through which God's actions are carried out. This is the “auto-determination” of man, where he is not grounded in church rituals and affiliation to particular social institutions, but in the objective dynamics unfolding in him. The paper concludes with an attempt at a new reading of Max Weber's study “Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism”
Abstract
This work consists of two chapters and focuses on the formation of a new bourgeois ethics within the framework of the medieval mentality. This process is considered on the [...]
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THE CONCEPT OF FREEDOM IN LIBERAL AND CONSERVATIVE POLITICAL THOUGHT AT THE TURN OF THE 19TH AND 20TH CENTURIES.
I. Budraitskis, G. Vanunts, A. Yegorova, A. Zapolskaya, G. Yudin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 61

Abstract
The subject of our research is the evolution of the concept of "freedom" in liberal political thought at the end of the 19th century – first half of the 20th century, as well as its influence on further academic discussions of "freedom" as a concept. Our main sources, therefore, are the texts by liberal, conservative as well as left-wing theorists of the period in question (Isaiah Berlin, Carl Schmitt, Edmund Burke, Max Weber, Joseph Schumpeter, Walter Benjamin) and their interconnections with the subsequent development of the liberal tradition (Jurgen Habermas, Hannah Arendt) as well as its critics (Giorgio Agamben, Judith Butler). The aim of the project was to confirm our basic hypothesis that the key transformation of the concept of "freedom" in political and social thought takes place at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries – this was the moment when liberal doctrines took shape, in which collective freedom gave way to individual freedom. Thus, our project had three objectives: 1) to trace the transformation of the notion of freedom in the liberal tradition of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, 2) to identify lines of criticism of individual freedom in conservative and leftist thought of the early twentieth century, 3) to analyze the current crisis of liberalism related to the non-democratic basis of actual political representation and to show how the notion of freedom formed in early twentieth century liberal theory has affected the institutions of modern liberal democracy. The relevance of the research is determined by the deepening crisis of liberalism in our days and the pursuit of programmatic alternatives to liberal democratic institutions. Through an analysis based primarily on the "history of concepts" method, we have described the contradictions in liberal thought associated with the form of the democratic process and its elitist content. The scientific novelty of this study lies in the fact that, for the first time in domestic political theory, an attempt was made to examine the key category of "freedom" in the liberal tradition in a broad historical and theoretical context, which made it possible to identify its contemporary understanding. We conclude that this anti-democratic and antiegalitarian element of the liberal tradition has common origins with the conservative critique of democracy of the early to mid-20th century. Since the Russian Federation's policy documents (in particular, the National Security Strategy) pay considerable attention to rethinking the relationship between individual freedoms and securing the collective freedom of the Russian people in the face of external challenges, the practical recommendation of the study is to further develop an original historical and theoretical concept of freedom that meets the contemporary conditions of our country.
Abstract
The subject of our research is the evolution of the concept of "freedom" in liberal political thought at the end of the 19th century – first half of the 20th [...]
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ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES (INCLUDING EPIDEMICS COVID-19) TO ACHIEVE THE NATIONAL GOAL OF INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCY IN RUSSIA
Y. Papanova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 62
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Mortality rate of the Russian population in 2020-2021
P. Kuznetsova, E. Seredkina, R. Khasanova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 63

Abstract
In 2020-2021, the new coronavirus pandemic significantly changed the global demographic situation. Most countries of the world faced a significant increase in mortality. The spread of COVID-19 presented the greatest challenge in recent history for the health systems, as well as the social sphere and the economy of most states and has influenced the increase in the mortality in 2020-2021 in almost every country. The objective of this study is to analyze the dynamics of population mortality in 2020-2021 (January-August) and the impact of coronavirus infection on mortality and life expectancy of the Russian population. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 by directly counting the number of deaths due to coronavirus infection has its limitations: the increase in the total number of deaths significantly exceeds the official mortality from coronavirus infection. In this regard, when determining mortality from coronavirus, indicators of excess mortality and changes in life expectancy are used. Excess mortality is one of the main indicators characterizing the direct and indirect impact of the spread of COVID-19 on the population mortality and the effectiveness of different countries’ efforts to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 pandemic. The paper analyzes the operational information on the population mortality for 8 months of 2021 and detailed data for 2020 as a whole. The authors note that the decrease in life expectancy in 2020 is associated with an increase in mortality from COVID-19, circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases, digestive diseases, external and other causes in middle and older age groups.
Abstract
In 2020-2021, the new coronavirus pandemic significantly changed the global demographic situation. Most countries of the world faced a significant increase in mortality. The [...]
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Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment models of the economics of climate change: a literature survey
A. Shumilov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 64

Abstract
This paper presents an overview of studies on numerical analysis of various kinds of uncertainties in integrated models climate and economy. Applications of uncertainty analysis techniques are considered as for deterministic models (Monte Carlo experiments, sensitivity analysis), and for stochastic models of climate and economy (stochastic dynamic programming).
Abstract
This paper presents an overview of studies on numerical analysis of various kinds of uncertainties in integrated models climate and economy. Applications of uncertainty [...]
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Developing the Approach to Spatial Analysis of the Distribution of Air Passenger Traffic in Russia
K. Borzykh, Y. Ponomarev, D. Radchenko, D. Salimova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 65

Abstract
Air transport accounts for the largest share of passenger turnover compared to other modes of transport, which makes it of particular importance in Russia. The strategic goals to develop the regional airport network, which are fixed by Presidential Decrees No.204 of 2018 and No.474 of 2020, as well as the recent external shock – the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, which resulted in an 85% decrease of domestic air traffic – explain the relevance of studying the factors which affect the development of regional markets for air passenger traffic. The aim of the study is to analyze the determinants of the spatial distribution of air passenger flows in Russia. This research applies a number of scientific methods, such as synthesis, analysis, induction, deduction, etc. It also entails the analysis of relevant literature and open statistical sources, and applies spatial econometrics models to take into account the geographical distribution of air passenger flows. The results of the study are conclusions about the impact of regional socioeconomic characteristics as well as spatial interdependence on the volume of air passenger traffic. The model estimates indicate that the actual distribution of regional air traffic is subject to a gravity mechanism. What is more, the spatial heterogeneity of the passenger traffic distribution has been confirmed. One of the major characteristics of the current network configuration in Russia is the pronounced star-shaped structure of air traffic: in 2009-2018 up to 95% of the total passenger traffic from the Russian regions passed through the Moscow hub, whereas the regional opportunities to generate passenger flows bypassing Moscow were limited. According to the scenario analysis, which was carried out to estimate the potential effects resulting from stimulation of air passenger traffic, the strongest effect on the air traffic is provided by stable regional economic growth. This effect becomes even more pronounced if the measure is combined with the support of air carriers through reduction of flight service costs and stimulation of consumers’ demand through subsidies. Further research is aimed at a more detailed scenario analysis of possible effects resulting from the optimization of the regional airport network in Russia.
Abstract
Air transport accounts for the largest share of passenger turnover compared to other modes of transport, which makes it of particular importance in Russia. The strategic goals [...]
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«RESEARCH OF APPROACHES TO THE FORMATION OF UNIFIED OF INTERREGIONAL TARIFFS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNIFIED OF THE STATE TARIFF POLICY IN THE POWER INDUSTRY»
O. Mozgovaya, O. Temnaya, V. Kuznetsov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 66

Abstract
This paper presents the results of the study "Research of approaches to the consolidated interregional tariff formations implemented as part of the common state pricing policy in electricity industry”. The authors study the regional differentiation of electricity grid tariffs in Russia and reveal the principles of the consolidated interregional tariff formation. According to the results of the research, the electricity price differentiation factors occurring at the different pricing levels have been revealed. For non-household customers, the main factor of electricity price differentiation is the electricity network transmission tariff differentiation, which accounts for a high percentage of the electricity price structure. The regional differentiation between max and min electricity network tariffs could be as high as 400 to 800%. Practical recommendations for abandoning the electricity price differentiation as part of the implementation of the consolidated interregional tariff formation have been established.
Abstract
This paper presents the results of the study "Research of approaches to the consolidated interregional tariff formations implemented as part of the common state pricing [...]
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Updating of Input-Output tables in Russia by machine learning methods
V. Potashnikov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 67

Abstract
Relevance: Input-output tables are the basis for many types of analysis of the real sector, which are necessary to build a well-thought-out long-term and short-term policy. Evaluation of input-output tables is an expensive and time-consuming procedure. At the same time, national statistical agencies publish additional forecast information, which makes it possible to extend the input-output tables, for example, output and intermediate consumption by sector. The main methods of extending the RAS tables (or its modification GRAS) and Cross Entropy, use data on intermediate demand, the calculation of which requires additional time-consuming work. The use of information only for the previous period and the current period is the main disadvantage of this method. In recent decades, machine learning methods have been gaining popularity, the main advantage of which is finding relationships that can be hard to identify, for example, due to the large dimension of the task or the lack of evidence of cause-and-effect relationships. These methods have proven themselves well in all kinds of image recognition tasks, voice-to-text conversion, and so on. Currently, attempts are being made to apply machine learning methods to economic problems. The application of machine learning methods to the task of updating inputoutput tables carries a scientific novelty. The purpose of the study is to extend the input-output tables by machine learning methods. The method of extending the input-output tables using convolutional neural networks is the result of the work, as well as the forecast of the coefficients of the direct cost matrix for Russia. Conclusion: the use of input-output tables can improve the quality of forecasts of input-output tables. Recommendations: it is necessary to continue the research in this direction.
Abstract
Relevance: Input-output tables are the basis for many types of analysis of the real sector, which are necessary to build a well-thought-out long-term and short-term policy. [...]
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FARMING IN RUSSIA: SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIATION AND INTEGRATION
A. Nikulin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 68

Abstract
The study aims at systematization of the trends in the differentiation and integration of social-economic practices typical for Russian farmers. The authors identify prospects and limitations of such processes including based on the results of the empirical studies conducted in key agricultural regions of the Russian Federation. The research data collected during the field case studies allow identifying the main social-economic strata of farms, describing the types of their economic practices, and analyzing alternative directions of their social and regional differentiation and integration.
Abstract
The study aims at systematization of the trends in the differentiation and integration of social-economic practices typical for Russian farmers. The authors identify prospects [...]
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MIGRANTS FROM NEAR AND FAR ABROAD COUNTRIES IN RURAL RUSSIA: TYPES OF EMPLOYMENT AND THE INFORMAL ECONOMY
A. Nikulin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 69

Abstract
The article aims at identifying the main employment types of foreign migrants in the Russian countryside. The authors describe different employment types of migrants in the Russian agriculture and in a number of foreign countries; they also conducted a quantitative and qualitative study of the Russian agricultural sector potential for attracting foreign labor migrants, identified the regional features of labor migration to rural areas, including in the historical perspective; analyzed the types of informal economic and social relations of migrant workers with local rural communities.
Abstract
The article aims at identifying the main employment types of foreign migrants in the Russian countryside. The authors describe different employment types of migrants in the [...]
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MODELLING SCENARIOS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR
A. Strokov, V. Potashnikov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 21

Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to analyze the consequences of the concentration of livestock farms, not only from an economic point of view, but also from an environmental one. The objective of the research is to develop ways for sustainable development of animal husbandry in Russia, taking into account the possibilities of continuous growth in production and export of meat and milk, balanced by current environmental problems (growth of farm waste) and the possibilities of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The subject of the research is the environmental indicators characterizing the externalities arising from the production of livestock products (meat, milk, eggs). The work uses traditional scientific methods - descriptive, analytical, statistical and methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The sources of information were Russian and foreign scientific publications, official publications of regulatory documents and statistical data of state authorities of Russia, as well as foreign databases on agricultural statistics. The reported results conclude that the concentration of livestock production facilities leads to different environmental consequences. Among the leading regions specializing in livestock products, the highest concentration is in the Central Black Earth Region: the Belgorod and Kursk regions account for almost 30% of all agricultural waste in Russia. The greenhouse gas emissions were estimated using the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model. The calculation results showed that Belgorod region has one of the lowest carbon footprint indicators in livestock production: 8 tons of СО2 equiv. per one ton of protein, which is associated with the lowcarbon development of poultry farming. In other regions, which specialize in dairy and beef cattle breeding, the carbon footprint is at least twice as high, for example, in the Krasnodarsky krai; however, the indicators of waste output per unit of production, on the contrary, are lower there. Thus, the scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of scientific and analytical tools for the correct identification of local, regional and global environmental risks when assessing the efficiency of meat, milk and eggs production. So, in our study, local risks were assessed through the concentration of manure (nitrogen) elements per unit of agricultural land and cultivated area at the level of municipalities. Regional risks were assessed through the indicator of waste from agricultural products. And global risks were assessed through an indicator of greenhouse gas emissions, which also allowed us to estimate the so-called cumulative carbon footprint of each region per unit of animal protein produced. Based on the results of the study, recommendations were developed to improve statistical reporting on production waste in the agricultural sector; to differentially collect and publish data on various types of feeding of farm animals in different categories of farms, which will subsequently help to better calculate animal diets and their potential waste and greenhouse gas emissions, in order to identify the most "wasteful” and “sustainable” animal husbandry practices.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to analyze the consequences of the concentration of livestock farms, not only from an economic point of view, but also [...]
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FEATURES OF SMALL BUSINESS SUPPORT IN RURAL AREAS
E. Gataulina, A. Potapova, D. Ternovskiy, E. Shishkina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 22

Abstract
One of the priorities of state policy is small business and the development of rural areas. It is obvious that rural small business (SB) is an important aspect of the development of rural areas. However, it has been little studied, which justifies the relevance of the study. The purpose of the work is to analyze the state of rural small business, to identify the peculiarities of its support. The objectives of the study include an analysis of methodological issues of identification and support of small businesses in rural areas, the formation of a database based on a review of information sources, analysis of the current state of, and support measures for, small businesses in rural areas based on the generated data sets. A separate task of the study is to identify the status quo and peculiarities of support for rural small businesses in the context of COVID-19. The work was carried out at the Center for AgriFood Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in 2021. The main sources of information were data from the Unified Register of Small and Medium-sized Businesses and the Unified Register of Small and Medium-sized Businesses receiving support. The two registers are maintained by the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation. Comparative, computational-constructive, statistical methods were used. As a result, for the first time, an assessment of the current state of rural small business in Russia was obtained in regional and sectoral cross-sections in terms of the number and density of businesses; in comparison with the urban areas, which is also the novelty of this work. The regions with the highest concentration of rural small business, as well as regions where it develops less successfully, are highlighted. It is shown that the main volume of support for rural SBs falls on agriculture, although the main sphere of rural SBs is trade, transport, and only then agriculture. The results can be used to improve regional and federal policy in the field of rural development. Further research can develop in terms of further monitoring of rural small business, expanding the analysis of the characteristics of rural small businesses, now available through a limited range of indicators, identifying factors affecting the development of rural small businesses.
Abstract
One of the priorities of state policy is small business and the development of rural areas. It is obvious that rural small business (SB) is an important aspect of the development [...]
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IMPROVING THE SYSTEM FOREIGN TRADE REGULATION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN RUSSIA IN CONDITIONS OF SHOCKS TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
N. Svetlov, D. Ternovsky, V. Uzun, N. Shagaida, E. Shishkina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 23

Abstract
The study proves the effectiveness of the tools used to regulate the export of wheat, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil that restrict the transfer of global prices to the domestic market, but it also evaluates the negative effects of their use and formulates proposals for their improvement. In justifying the use of floating duty mechanisms on grain exports and grain dampener, the authors also assess their positive effect on the level of consumer prices for foodstuffs made with grain. To prevent the negative effects of export restrictions, the use of a regularly updated base export price value is recommended when calculating the floating export duty on grain. The influence of tariff disparity on the restrictions on the export of sunflower seeds is substantiated, and it is shown that the use of export restrictions at a higher level of 3 competition in the domestic market does not reduce the effect of the agricultural producers’ income growth associated with an increase in the global sunflower oil prices, with a neutral effect on the position of the processing industry. It is shown that the introduction of a floating export duty on sunflower oil in September 2021 is equivalent in its effect on the consumer market to the effect of voluntary retail price capping agreements in 2020-2021.
Abstract
The study proves the effectiveness of the tools used to regulate the export of wheat, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil that restrict the transfer of global prices to the [...]
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Development of an approach to the analysis of the impact of changes in the transport network on the interregional distribution of cargo flows in Russia
. K. V. Rostislav, . YU. YU. Ponomarev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 24

Abstract
The transportation system is less variable than settlement patterns or the allocation of economic activity. This necessitates checking the optimality of spending on the development of transportation networks. Previous work in this area proposed criteria for the optimal development of transport networks for a single mode of transportation. The study demonstrates how, with the help of carrying capacity, a multilayer network can be “collapsed” to a representation convenient for working with the usual tools of spatial general equilibrium models. The possibilities of the new approach have been tested on the example of the Kaliningrad oblast. It was found that the distribution of the carrying capacity between the urban districts of the Kaliningrad region is not optimal: the carrying capacity of the roads in the latitudinal direction is insufficient. It follows from the model that new investments in road construction should bring the carrying capacity of roads between municipalities closer to such levels that the ratios of carrying capacity between pairs of adjacent territories correspond to those in the model with a zero lower limit of the optimal carrying capacity value.
Abstract
The transportation system is less variable than settlement patterns or the allocation of economic activity. This necessitates checking the optimality of spending on the development [...]
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« Benefits and risks for Russian industries and individual enterprises from the implementation of trade and economic agreements of the CIS countries»
A. Knobel, Y. Zaytsev, K. Bagdasaryan, M. Baeva, N. Volovik, V. Sedalishchev, M. Kazaryan, D. Kuznetsov, D. Mirakyan, N. Toropov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 25

Abstract
The CIS countries, or more broadly the former republics of the USSR, are effectively making a choice between European (EU) and Eurasian (EAEU) integration, which leads to certain benefits and risks for all CIS+ countries (including Ukraine and Georgia), especially for Russia. The cases of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are of primary interest. Termination of trade and economic cooperation, disruption of value chains, etc. entail a serious threat to industrial development for Russian industries and individual enterprises. Crisis phenomena such as the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, only exacerbate these trends. Great Britain’s departure from the EU (Brexit) at the end of January 2020 is also of research interest. The topics of the post-Soviet countries and their trade and economic cooperation with different countries have been studied by various authors since the collapse of the USSR. In the past ten years, there has been an increase in the activity of studying these problems, in connection with the development of the European Neighborhood Policy on the one hand and Eurasian integration on the other. Research by foreign and domestic authors can be distinguished into the following groups:
Abstract
The CIS countries, or more broadly the former republics of the USSR, are effectively making a choice between European (EU) and Eurasian (EAEU) integration, which leads to [...]
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“G20 Members’ Approaches to Regulating Digital Markets”
A. Shelepov, O. Kolmar

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 26

Abstract
The object of this working paper is the policy and priorities of the digital economy leaders (the G20 members) in regulating digital platforms. The goal of the study is to assess the impact of these countries’ policies in the field of digital platforms regulation and to develop recommendations regarding Russia’s policy on digital platforms and its participation in developing new global regulatory approaches. In order to achieve this goal, the working paper addresses the following objectives: to clarify the criteria and select the leading countries from among the G20 members on the basis of expert assessments and data from international ratings; to carry out the analysis of policies and priorities of the selected digital leaders (UK, USA, Canada, EU, Japan, Korea, India, China) as well as Russia in regulating digital platforms; to develop recommendations regarding Russia’s policy on digital platforms regulation at the national level, as well as promoting its approach within the G20 and other multilateral institutions. The study is highly relevant since the leading developed countries increase their regulatory potential, including through the consistent inclusion of their standards and cooperation norms they have developed in the documents adopted by multilateral organizations, and thus create a global market for their goods and services, and additional opportunities for their companies. The study shows that a strong potential exists for a positive effect in terms of a coordinated approach to regulating digital platforms’ activities at the international level. In this context, it is important for Russia to integrate the issues of digital platforms regulation into the BRICS and G20 digital economy agendas.
Abstract
The object of this working paper is the policy and priorities of the digital economy leaders (the G20 members) in regulating digital platforms. The goal of the study is to [...]
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Система стратегического планирования: глобальные тенденции, внешние шоки и разработка подходов адаптации к ним
V. Komarov, V. Akimova, A. Voloshinskaya, N. Moskvitina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 27

Abstract
An effective modern strategic planning system should be based on two basic concepts: resilience (resistance or stability against any shocks) and long-term sustainability (with special emphasis on long-term). It is the ability to adapt to modern realities that determines the relevance and effectiveness of the implementation of strategic planning documents. According to various estimates, a full frontal national strategy can “fade” completely within 4–5 years. For a regional or sectoral strategy, according to our estimates, this happens in 2-3 years, for urban - in one. In this regard, it is necessary to determine the factors contributing to the “fading” (forgetting) of strategic documents, and to identify the main approaches, which can be implemented to extend their relevance. The study is dedicated to the analysis of the applicability of existing economic concepts to ensure the solution of the modern problem of socio-economic development: improving the quality of life, ensuring the stability and viability (resilience) of the economic system without increasing economic growth and investment activity (like GDP growth and increase in investments raised) as well as to putting forward recommendations for updating methodological approaches to the development of strategic documents with the aim of creating an adaptive and up-to-date strategic planning system. It was revealed that the strategic planning documents being developed in Russia are static and not capable of responding to changes in the socio-economic, political, cultural situation, while the country’s socio-economic development strategy should be a response tool of state authorities to external challenges, a flexible tool that allows reconfiguring the public administration system to respond to these challenges. It was found that there are two groups of factors responsible for the “fading” of strategic documents: direct - arising from the end of the official validity period of the strategies or due to their cancellation by the authority responsible for the development and implementation of these documents, and indirect – arising from socio-economic transformations taking place in the field of strategic planning and influencing the achievement of the respective documents. According to the results of the analysis of the news background of 10 strategies at regional and municipal level, it was revealed that the “fading period” differs both between regions and municipalities, and between individual cities and regions, depending on the local institutional environment, activity level of the civil society, attitude to the strategy (“formal implementation of the rules” against an effectively working document), etc. Changes were also proposed to Law 172-FZ regarding revision of the existing principles of goal-setting, as well as special testing procedures to ensure the resilience and stainability of the documents.
Abstract
An effective modern strategic planning system should be based on two basic concepts: resilience (resistance or stability against any shocks) and long-term sustainability (with [...]
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“General Approaches to the Modernization of Economic and Social relations in the North Caucasus: institutional alternatives"
K. Kazenin, I. Starodubrovskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 28

Abstract
This paper examines the main theoretical approaches to the issue of economic catch-up. The preprint formulates the two key types of economic modernization policy – “top-down modernization” and “bottom-up modernization”. The idea of “top-down modernization” is to create new industrial enterprises in a struggling region at the expense of the state budget or large third-party investors. In turn, “bottom-up modernization” implies relying on existing resources in communities, supporting local firms already in operation, and implementing measures aimed at increasing the competitiveness of all existing firms in the community or region. The analysis of practical application of these strategies shows that most attempts at “top-down modernization” have not been too successful so far – despite achieving some acceleration of economic growth in the short run, they eventually failed to reduce the economic lag due to insurmountable management problems and creating wrong business stimuli. At the same time, the “bottom-up modernization” strategy has proven more successful, as shown by the example of Southern Europe and East Asia, albeit with reservations – to achieve accelerated economic growth, it is necessary that the region should already have the prerequisites for development (from the availability of human capital to the people’s willingness to trust each other)
Abstract
This paper examines the main theoretical approaches to the issue of economic catch-up. The preprint formulates the two key types of economic modernization policy – “top-down [...]
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Supporting employment through entrepreneurship: what international practices are appropriate for Russia
V. Barinova, S. Zemtsov, Y. Tsareva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 29

Abstract
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ more than 50% of the population of developed countries, so their support is one of the significant measures in maintaining employment. The relevance of this direction has grown since the crisis of 2020, which caused significant damage to the SME sector. The aim of the work was systematization and generalization of the developed countries’ experience in SME support in crisis and non-crisis periods, identification of support tools needed in Russia. The tasks of the study included analyzing both the experience of the development of employment support policies and tools for supporting and developing entrepreneurship using various crises as an example. The research was carried out using general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, induction and deduction, comparisons, generalizations, etc.). The authors reviewed the literature and open sources relevant for 2021, including reports by international organizations, regulatory legal acts. The results of the research are conclusions about the foreign experience of employment support and the possibility of its application in Russia. The main direction of the employment support policy in non-crisis periods abroad is to create motivation for medium- and long-term unemployed to look for work, to attract vulnerable social groups to work; acceleration programs are used to support SMEs by reducing administrative pressure and increasing regulatory transparency. During the current crisis, the government support for business abroad intensified in two directions: supporting the liquidity of companies and facilitating the maximum transfer of activities to a remote, digital mode. Over the past decade, Russia has actively advanced in non-crisis support for SMEs, but in the current crisis, it needs to expand the areas of preferential lending or cofinancing, and step up assistance to digitalize the activities of SMEs. The main direction of further research is to analyze the use of said foreign instruments in Russia, compare their effectiveness and adjust them taking into consideration Russian specifics.
Abstract
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ more than 50% of the population of developed countries, so their support is one of the significant measures in maintaining [...]
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MEDIUM TERM PARAMETERS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC, BUDGETARY AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FORECASTING FOR THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND KEY MACROECONOMIC RISKS MANAGEMENT
A. Vedev, K. Tuzov, M. Kovaleva, V. Eremkin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 30

Abstract
The topic of the study is relevant due to the fact that abrupt changes in the economy and in the financial system, particularly those caused by the coronavirus pandemic, have changed all existing development forecasts. At the same time, a whole range of new risks for the financial system appeared. In this regard, the development of a forecast for the development of the financial sector in various scenarios, taking into account risks and opportunities, seems to be the most important task for the Russian economy. The purpose of the study is to develop a medium-term forecast for the development of the financial sector in the Russian Federation. The subject of this research is the dynamics of the development of the financial system of the Russian Federation in the medium term. The research method or methodology is based on the study of key current and retrospective data on the state of the financial sector of the Russian Federation, highlighting the most important risks for the financial sector and building a medium-term forecast. As a result of the work carried out, the key components of the budgetary sphere, financial and credit markets have been analyzed, and the impact of the deterioration in the external environment has been assessed. Thus, the work presents the assessments of the prerequisites for the forecast and developed three possible scenarios for the development of the financial sector in Russia. The scientific novelty of the research lies in producing unique forecasts for the development of the financial sector in Russia. The recommendations obtained as a result of the study indicate the need to develop mechanisms for responding to certain risks for the financial system, taking into account the possible consequences of such an impact presented in the forecast. The project was carried out as part of research work by the Laboratory for Structural Research of the IAER at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in 2021.
Abstract
The topic of the study is relevant due to the fact that abrupt changes in the economy and in the financial system, particularly those caused by the coronavirus pandemic, have [...]
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Analysis of new approaches to identifying risks and ensuring financial stability in modern national financial systems
Y. Danilov, D. Pivovarov, I. Davydov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 31

Abstract
This paper explores new approaches to identifying financial stability risks and implementing financial stability policies in the contemporary national financial systems. The need for new approaches is primarily explained by a dramatic expansion of the range of financial stability risks due to the increasingly important role of non-banking financial institutions and financial markets in the operation of financial systems, as well as the growing financial inclusion of firms and households. The problems of assessing financial stability are given a special focus. Based on the analysis of financial stability metrics used by the world’s leading central banks and recommended by international financial organizations, the authors formulate proposals for modernizing the system of financial stability indicators used by the Bank of Russia. We formulated proposals on measures to protect the domestic market from external shocks arising from changes in the monetary policy conducted by the world’s leading central banks; on accounting for the expanded range of financial stability risks; and on harmonizing financial stability policies with other areas of financial development.
Abstract
This paper explores new approaches to identifying financial stability risks and implementing financial stability policies in the contemporary national financial systems. The [...]
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USING GOOGLE TRENDS FOR PREDICTIONS: REVIEW AND APPLICATIONS FOR RETAIL SALES FORECASTING
A. Zubarev, Y. Golovanova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 32

Abstract
Due to the growing popularity of the Internet, many purchases are made in online stores. The Google Trends service collects data based on user requests and breaks them down into categories. In this paper, we review the existing forecasting methods using this service, and make an attempt to predict the dynamics of retail sales using macroeconomic variables and categories in Google Trends corresponding to various commodity groups of food and non-food products. For each type of retail, we build the best predictive models from macroeconomic variables and try to improve them by adding trends.
Abstract
Due to the growing popularity of the Internet, many purchases are made in online stores. The Google Trends service collects data based on user requests and breaks them down [...]
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PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CIVIL SERVANTS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
T. Lavrova, S. Evarovich, S. Martynova, N. Gotovschikova, O. Karlova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 33

Abstract
Digital transformation in governance is possible subject to a change in the corporate culture of the federal authorities. Training and a modern system of professional development of public authorities based on digital solutions and requiring digital skills are becoming the most important tool for changing culture. At the same time, the digitalization of the processes of organizing the professional development of civil servants is impossible without improving this system, including building interconnection with the development strategy of the state body (sphere, department), the system for assessing and motivating civil servants, and their career development. The approaches to planning the professional development of civil servants, quality assessment and examination of educational programs require updating. These processes must be based on modern digital solutions and services. The object of the research is the activities of state bodies and subdivisions regulating the sphere of professional development of civil servants. The purpose of the study is to develop proposals for improving the system of professional development of public authorities in the context of the government digital transformation. The tasks are related to the analysis of the current state of the professional development system in public authorities, the development of proposals for improving the system of professional development in governance in the context of digitalization and client (citizen) centricity. The novelty of the research is determined by the introduction of new state data of the professional development system of civil servants and the proposed model of the system maturity levels under study. The research is based on a systemic approach and a comparative method. The following empirical methods are used: sociological research (in-depth interviews, polls of civil servants); analysis of documents, expert sessions; modeling. The result of the research was the development of proposals for improving the system of professional development in the aspect of creating unified methodological approaches to the professional development of civil servants. The main conclusions relate to the application of the maturity level model of this system and the possibility of its use to update the existing approaches and methodological tools. A special place is occupied by proposals for the improvement of the Unified Information System for Personnel Management of the State Civil Service of Russia (EISU KS) and the Unified Specialized Information Resource (EIR) services for professional development of civil servants. The results of research can be used in the interests of federal authorities and regional governments, the Office of the President of the Russian Federation for Civil 7 Service and Personnel, the Human Resources Department of the Government of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation to improve work on the professional development of civil servants. The prospects of the study are associated with the implementation of the proposed model of maturity levels and the development of methodological tools for moving to higher levels in terms of organizing professional development
Abstract
Digital transformation in governance is possible subject to a change in the corporate culture of the federal authorities. Training and a modern system of professional development [...]
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THE POSSIBILITIES OF USING INTERACTIVE DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES OF PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF ORGANIZING AND CONDUCTING MANAGEMENT COMPETITIONS
A. Mudarisov, Y. Sinyagin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 34

Abstract
The relevance of this research is primarily due to the intensive development of technologies for remote work with personnel. Interest in digital tools for the assessment and development of human resources is increasing both in business and in the field of public service. The growing trend in recent years to search and select the most promising personnel through open management competitions has formed a request for methodological and technological modernization of already proven evaluation tools and their adaptation to the specific conditions of such personnel projects. The purpose of the study is to study the possibilities and prospects of using interactive digital technologies for evaluating personal, professional and managerial resources within the framework of organizing and conducting managerial and personnel projects (competitions). The object of the study is personal and professional resources and psychological qualities of managers participating in management competitions. Research methods: general scientific, psychological and mathematical; analysis of literary sources, testing, statistical data processing. As part of the research work, an extensive analysis of the modern world practice of using digital interactive technologies in the field of personnel management was carried out. The key trends in the use of interactive digital technologies are identified and described. An interactive digital methodology of personal and professional diagnostics in the format of a test to assess the respondent's level of knowledge in the field of public administration in the Russian Federation has been developed and tested. Based on the developed tools, an empirical study was conducted on a sample of more than three and a half thousand managers participating in the management competition. According to the results of an empirical study, significant differences in personal and professional characteristics were revealed between participants who demonstrated different levels of knowledge. The conducted empirical research allows us to draw conclusions about the expediency of using knowledge tests in the context of personal and professional diagnostics. A variant of creating a methodology for assessing the level of claims based on the developed knowledge test is proposed. Recommendations on the use of an interactive format for the implementation of digital methods for assessing managerial and personal-professional resources in the context of mass remote assessment are formulated. The prospects and possibilities of using such digital assessment tools in the framework of projects for the development of state personnel policy are outlined.
Abstract
The relevance of this research is primarily due to the intensive development of technologies for remote work with personnel. Interest in digital tools for the assessment and [...]
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OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASING THE EFFICIENCY OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE STATE OF PERSONNEL POLICY BASED ON THE USE OF UNIFIED PROCEDURES OF PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL DIAGNOSIS AND ASSESSMENT IN THE SYSTEM STATE CIVIL SERVICE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
I. Sheburakov, Y. Sinyagin, L. Tatarinov, O. Sheburakova, Z. Goyayeva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 35

Abstract
The research work is devoted to analyzing the assessment practice in the public civil service, defining conditions and factors affecting the level of maturity of assessment in the HR technology system, and determining the possibilities for the introduction of unified procedures for personal and professional diagnostics and assessment in the activities of the government HR services to improve the effectiveness of personnel policy implementation in the civil service. In the process of researching, based on the analysis of trends characterizing the development of approaches to assessment in the civil service, directions for increasing the effectiveness of personnel policy were determined; proposals were substantiated for the formation of a system of unified procedures for personal and professional diagnostics and assessment in the civil service of the Russian Federation; methodological recommendations were developed and identified. The conditions necessary for the large-scale implementation of a system of unified procedures for personal and professional diagnostics in the state civil service of the Russian Federation.
Abstract
The research work is devoted to analyzing the assessment practice in the public civil service, defining conditions and factors affecting the level of maturity of assessment [...]
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FEATURES OF THE FORMATION OF MANAGEMENT TEAMS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NATIONAL PROJECTS USING REGIONAL PERSONNEL COMPETITIONS
Y. Sinyagin, E. Selezneva, A. Rozhok, O. Sheburakova, N. Sinyagina, O. Pereverzina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 36

Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the need to scientific and practical improvement of approaches to the selection and formation of management teams for the implementation of national projects; The purpose of the study is to identify the features of the selection and formation of management teams for the implementation of national projects using personnel regional competitions; Research tasks: a) identify the specifics of personnel regional competitions as instruments for the formation of management teams; b) to analyze the specific characteristics of teams for the implementation of national goals and projects based on the generalization of the results of personnel regional competitions; c) develop a model of requirements for managers and managerial teams on the implementation of national projects in the subjects of the Russian Federation; d) determine the characteristic features of effective management teams for the implementation of national projects; e) analyze personal and group factors of the effectiveness of managers as members of the management team on the implementation of national projects. The study was conducted in 2021 at the Faculty of Assessment and Development of Management Personnel VSSU Ravgigs. As research methods, scientific and methodological analysis, psychobiographic analysis, observation, expert survey, questionnaire, personal and professional diagnostics, content analysis of documents were used as research methodologies. The analysis of 2019- 2020 was used to analyze., Which includes the results of the personal and professional diagnosis of civil servants, as well as the results of the expert survey. The main results of the study are: clarification of the content of the concept of the "Management team" in relation to the public administration system; Expert and analytical note "Personnel regional contests as instruments for the formation of management teams"; Guidelines for optimizing the process of selection of teams to implement national projects using personnel regional competitions. Basic conclusions: The results of research work may be useful for creating a base for the formation of effective management teams in all the structures of public administration, as well as the development of specific mechanisms for the selection and formation of management teams for the implementation of national projects using personnel regional competitions. Research prospects may be associated with: identifying value-semantic factors for the development of team potential and improving the efficiency and productivity of project activities in the public administration system; studying the psychobiographic factors of development in civil servants of readiness to fulfill certain management and commanding roles; development of instruments for assessing the management team in the system of public administration as a group entity of activities; Improving the technology of regional personnel competitions as a tool for selecting effective management teams.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the need to scientific and practical improvement of approaches to the selection and formation of management teams for the implementation [...]
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