Abstract

'''The improvements in monitoring devices result in databases of increasing size showing dam behaviour. Advanced tools are required to extract useful information from such large amounts of data. Machine learning is increasingly used for that purpose worldwide: data-based models are built to estimate the dam response in front of a given combination of loads. The results of the comparison between model predictions and actual measurements can be used for decision support in dam safety evaluations. However, most of the works to date consider each device separately. A different approach is used in this contribution: a set of displacement records are jointly considered to identify patterns using a classification model. First, potential anomaly scenarios are defined and the response of the dam for each of them is obtained with numerical models under a realistic load combination. Then, the resulting displacements are used to generate a machine learning classifier. This model is later used to predict the most probable class of dam behavior corresponding to a new set of records. The methodology is applied to a double-curvature arch dam, showing great potential for anomaly detection.

Abstract

'''The installation of automatic data acquisition systems, together with the use of machine learning, allow obtaining useful information on the behaviour of dams. In this contribution, an example of application for a machine learning based predictive model is presented. Specifically, the level in a piezometer and its association with the reservoir level is studied for an embankment dam. The results show the model's ability to identify changes in dam response by taking full advantage of the available monitoring data. The flexibility of the algorithm allows different types of variables to be analysed without the need to determine a priori which are the most influential loads or how they affect the target value. The model has been implemented in a software tool that includes additional functionalities, specific for the treatment and exploration of dam monitoring data. It can be applied to different dam types and response variables.''' '''

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Predictive models are essential in dam safety assessment. They have been traditionally based on simple statistical tools such as the hydrostatic-season-time (HST) model. These tools are well known to have limitations in terms of accuracy and reliability. In the recent years, the examples of application of machine learning and related techniques are becoming more frequent as an alternative to HST. While they proved to feature higher flexibility and prediction accuracy, they are also more difficult to interpret. As a consequence, the vast majority of the research is limited to prediction accuracy estimation. In this work, one of the most popular machine learning techniques (boosted regression trees), was applied to model 8 radial displacements and 4 leakage flows at La Baells Dam. The possibilities of model interpretation were explored: the relative influence of each predictor was computed, and the partial dependence plots were obtained. Both results were analysed to draw conclusions on dam response to environmental variables, and its evolution over time. The results show that this technique can efficiently identify dam performance changes with higher flexibility and reliability than simple regression models.