C. Zhang, L. Demirciyan
Eastern migratory monarch butterflies have declined by over 80% since the 1990s and have a 56–74% chance of extinction by 2080, which has been attributed to climate change and habitat loss. As a native migratory insect widely distributed across North America, the monarch butterfly serves as a valuable bioindicator for environmental change and conservation needs. However, there is still a lack of understanding of the spatiotemporal nature, relative importance, and future risks of individual threats due to the monarch’s multi-generational and vast annual cycle. Given the monarch's distinct ecological niche and sensitivity to environment conditions for migration, this study used convolutional neural network species distribution models (CNN-SDMs), which enhance occurrence predictions by capturing the surrounding environmental neighborhood, to analyze suitability predictors of monarch butterflies and explain their contributions at each step of the migratory route. The models were projected onto future climate and land cover scenarios in 2061–2080. Monthly maximum and minimum temperature ranked highest in feature importance across the migratory cycle, while vegetative land cover became ranked high in importance for the overwintering monarch population and future breeding habitat forecasted to shift northward. This niche-switching suggests that conservation efforts to facilitate the northward expansion of suitable habitat and the cultivation of nectar sources near hibernating colonies will be critical with growing climate impact and emissions. This study was the first to establish a CNN-based predictive spatiotemporal model of monarch butterflies and incorporate a comprehensive set of environmental predictors to evaluate potential threats to the monarch decline.
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Published on 22/09/25Submitted on 07/07/25
Volume 7, 2025Licence: CC BY-NC-SA license
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