== Abstract ==

​

<div style="cursor: text; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;">

<p style="font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;" xml:lang="EN-US"><span>In t</span><span>his</span><span> study</span><span> we construct</span><span> economic policy uncertainty indices </span><span>for Russia</span><span> using </span><span>online news articles</span><span> and</span><span> </span><span>VK</span><span> posts. A comparative analysis of quantitative measures of economic uncertainty show</span><span>s</span><span> that the news ind</span><span>ex</span><span> captures periods of economic uncertainty better than the Baker-Bloom-Davis index. On the contrary, the Baker-Bloom-Davis index for Russia is extremely sensitive to political instability and the period of the coronavirus.</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">&nbsp;</span></p>

</div>

​

<div style="cursor: text; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;">

<p style="font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;" xml:lang="EN-US">The </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: bold;" xml:lang="EN-US">goal</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;" xml:lang="EN-US"><span> of this study is </span><span>to assess economic policy</span><span> </span><span>uncertainty</span><span> in Russia</span><span>.</span><span> </span><span>The study solves</span><span> the</span><span> </span><span>following</span><span> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: bold;" xml:lang="EN-US">tasks</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;" xml:lang="EN-US"><span>:</span><span> </span><span>r</span><span>eview of theoretical and empirical </span><span>works</span><span> on the analysis of the impact of uncertainty on the behavior of economic agents</span><span>; </span><span>a</span><span>nalysis of</span><span> approaches to quantitative assessment of economic policy uncertainty</span><span>; </span><span>c</span><span>ollecting and preparing </span><span>data</span><span>;</span><span> a</span><span>ssessment</span><span> of </span><span>economic policy uncertainty</span><span> </span><span>index</span><span> based on Russian data</span><span>;</span><span> e</span><span>conometric analysis of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on economic </span><span>activity</span><span>.</span><span> </span><span>The </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: bold;" xml:lang="EN-US">subject</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;" xml:lang="EN-US"><span> of the study is a quantitative assessment of the economic policy uncertainty index based on Russian data.</span><span> </span><span>The </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: bold;" xml:lang="EN-US">novelty</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;" xml:lang="EN-US"><span> of the scientific research </span><span>is</span><span> the analysis of the level of economic uncertainty in Russia using text analysis of</span><span> online</span><span> news articles and V</span><span>K</span><span> posts.</span><span> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: bold;" xml:lang="EN-US">Methods</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;" xml:lang="EN-US"><span>: </span><span>text analysis, statistical and econometric methods of time series analysis</span><span>. </span><span>The study </span><span>is</span><span> carried out on Russian data during </span><span>1999</span><span>-202</span><span>2</span><span>.</span><span> </span><span>The paper shows that news articles from online </span><span>media</span><span> can be used to assess economic policy uncertainty indices. The authors calculate three types of economic uncertainty</span><span> </span><span>index</span><span>: news</span><span>-based </span><span>economic policy uncertainty</span><span> index</span><span>, </span><span>e</span><span>conomic policy uncertainty index based on V</span><span>K</span><span> posts and measures of financial uncertainty</span><span>. </span><span>The </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: bold;" xml:lang="EN-US">results</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;" xml:lang="EN-US"><span> of the econometric analysis</span><span> </span><span>indicate</span><span> that an increase in economic policy uncertainty is associated with a decrease in real GDP, real </span><span>consumption</span><span> and real investment. </span><span>The </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: bold;" xml:lang="EN-US">main conclusion</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;" xml:lang="EN-US"><span> of the study </span><span>is</span><span> that the news</span><span>-based</span><span> economic policy uncertainty</span><span> index</span><span> is useful for analyzing periods of economic instability in Russia</span></span></p>

</div>

​

​

​

== Full document ==

<pdf>Media:Draft_Семенов_999431471-1538-document.pdf</pdf>

​