RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION : Scipedia

PROBLEMS OF READINESS OF THE SECONDARY VOCATIONAL EDUCATION SYSTEM FOR THE GROWTH OF THE INCOMING POPULATION
E. Lomteva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 223

Abstract
Introduction. The relevance of the study of this problem is due to the growing burden on the secondary vocational education system, namely the increase in the number of graduates of 9th and 11th grades who choose this level of education after school. The purpose of the article was to study the problems, consequences and risks of the growth of the number of entrants to the secondary vocational education system. Methodology. The leading method of research was the analysis of statistical data in the field of vocational education, as well as a sociological study conducted by the Center for the Economics of Continuing Education of the RANEPA in August 2020 among 903 graduates of educational organizations of the secondary vocational education system, which revealed the main motives for young people to choose the next stage of education. The Results of the study are the conclusions that the secondary vocational education system is not currently ready for increased interest on the part of young people. The growing number of middle-level and skilled personnel entering training programmes is constrained by limited resources for secondary vocational education, which forces young people to enter professional educational organizations on a paid basis or choose other regions for admission. The author considered the factors limiting the possibility of the secondary vocational education system to the tendency to increase the number of people wishing to enter professional educational organizations and the associated risks. Conclusion. The materials presented in the article can be used by the executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to assess the dynamics of development indicators and evaluate the performance of the secondary vocational education system and educational organizations.
Abstract
Introduction. The relevance of the study of this problem is due to the growing burden on the secondary vocational education system, namely the increase in the number of graduates [...]
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PUBLIC HEALTH IN GERMANY BEFORE 1848: PRACTICE AND THEORY
D. Mikhel

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 222

Abstract
The rise of public health care in Germany was part of a modernization process, the first product of which was the state. As part of the cameralist policy of encouraging population productivity, the dignitaries of Prussia and other German states began to establish special authorities responsible for the health and well-being of the population as early as the late seventeenth century. The 18th century saw a bureaucratization of health management methods, with district doctors (Kreisphysickus) as representatives in the field. They were entrusted with a wide range of administrative responsibilities, but their social status remained low. Some of the district doctors became known as the authors of treatises on medical police, presenting their views on the development of public health. Their theories, however, were far removed from actual practice. The situation began to change only after 1848, when political events in Germany prompted a new generation of physicians to vigorously demand political, social and medical reforms.
Abstract
The rise of public health care in Germany was part of a modernization process, the first product of which was the state. As part of the cameralist policy of encouraging population [...]
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Import Price Reaction to the Ruble Exchange Rate and Leaving the Russian market by Foreign Suppliers
A. Firanchuk

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 221

Abstract
The aim of the work is an empirical analysis of the ruble exchange rate pass-through into prices under reorientation of imports to suppliers from neutral countries due to the withdrawal of some suppliers from the Russian market. The motivation is related to the structural transformation of Russian foreign trade and the continued volatility of the ruble exchange rate. I collected a database of Russian imports based on statistics of the main trading partners. The data shows three periods since February 2022: a drop of import flows from all countries in February-April 2022; a period of reorientation (increase) of imports from neutral countries in May – December; and following general stabilization of trade. The result of econometric analysis at commodity-group level consistent with the hypothesis of reorientation of imports: the average growth rates of import prices from 'unfriendly' countries during the considered period significantly exceed the rate of price growth in the pre-crisis period. The difference is from 1.9 to 4.9 percentage points in a year basis. At the same time, there is no evidence in favor of the hypothesis of an increase in the growth rate of import prices from neutral countries during the crisis period. The main conclusion is that, by the end of 2022, the ruble exchange rate pass-through into import prices returned to the characteristic values of previous periods. This suggests that the current weakening of the ruble will affect import prices and lead to a reduction of imports volumes. The period of turbulence and reorientation of Russian imports has ended. Its result was a multiple drop in imports from 'unfriendly' countries and a higher increase in the prices of imports from them.
Abstract
The aim of the work is an empirical analysis of the ruble exchange rate pass-through into prices under reorientation of imports to suppliers from neutral countries due to [...]
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Determinants of invoice currency selection by Russian exporters
D. Kuznetsov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 220

Abstract
The presented paper empirically accesses the determinants of invoice currency choice by Russian exporters. The relevance of the work is dictated by the sanctions imposed against Russia, which, among other things, make international settlements in the dominant currencies difficult and facilitate the transition of Russian exporters and importers to settlements in other currencies. The existing economic literature considers the invoice currency as one of the most important factors of the magnitude of the exchange rate passthrough into prices and quantities. The basic assumption of such models is short-term price rigidity in terms of invoice currency, which is in line with the data. The dominant view is that the choice of contract currency made by exporters based on the desired medium-term exchange rate pass-through, which in turn depends on company’s share in the market and the intensity of imported components using. In this paper using the detailed data of customs statistics of the Russian Federation it is show that key determinants of the Russian exporter’s contract currency choice are the competitor’s choice of the contract currency, the firm’s market share, the invoice currency import structure and firm productivity, as well as the degree of differentiation of the exported product. The main conclusion is that the currency structure of export payments will change due to changes in the currency structure of imports, and in many product markets the short-term stability of the share of Russian exporters will suffer, including due to difficulties in using the US dollar as the currency for nominating exports.
Abstract
The presented paper empirically accesses the determinants of invoice currency choice by Russian exporters. The relevance of the work is dictated by the sanctions imposed against [...]
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Construction of a global vector autoregression with trade and financial relationships between countries and forecasting of Russian macroeconomic indicators
A. Zubarev, M. Kirillova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 219

Abstract
The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of external shocks on the Russian economy and build forecasts for the dynamic of Russian macroeconomic variables within the framework of a global vector autoregression model. In this study, special attention is focused on including channels for transmitting not only real but also financial shocks into the model by using different weights for aggregating variables. Also, the model for the Russian economy has been expanded by including not only variables of the real sector, but also indicators of the inflation rate and interest rate. The results provide impulse response functions for Russian indicators in response to a US interest rate shock.
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of external shocks on the Russian economy and build forecasts for the dynamic of Russian macroeconomic variables within [...]
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Russia-CIS co-operation development in the context of world economic structural transformation. (Part I)
A. Knobel, K. Bagdasaryan, Y. Zaytsev, V. Sedalishchev, A. Firanchuk, M. Baeva, M. Kazaryan, D. Kuznetsov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 218

Abstract
The first part of the research studies theoretical approaches, models and factors in determining the structural transformation of the world economy and presents some empirical assessments. The object of this study is trade and economic cooperation of the CIS countries in the context of structural transformation of the world economy and new trade and political restrictions introduced against Russia and Belarus, which have a significant impact on the entire system of foreign economic relations. The aim of the study is to assess the changes in the level of integration in different spheres of Russia, the EU, China with the CIS countries and CIS countries among themselves and the impact of sanctions against Russia and Belarus on the CIS countries. The relevance of the work is justified by the transformation of economic ties of the CIS countries, the forced need for Russia to search for new international transport and logistics routes and financial schemes and the processes of transformation of the system of international economic relations, which together form a new economic reality for the CIS. The paper uses an empirical method of quantitative data research, econometric method of calculating various indicators and indices, as well as systemic analysis. The main results of the study consist in analyzing changes in the conditions of trade and economic cooperation of post-Soviet countries and integration in different spheres in 2022, including interrupted projects, including those with third countries.
Abstract
The first part of the research studies theoretical approaches, models and factors in determining the structural transformation of the world economy and presents some empirical [...]
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ESTIMATES OF DISTORTIONS OF THE ECONOMIES OF THE EAEU COUNTRIES FROM EXISTING NON-TARIFF BARRIERS» (first stage)
V. Eremin, V. Sedalishchev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 217

Abstract
Inevitably, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that exist in trade between countries generate rents associated with them, which can either be distributed in some ratio between trading partners or dissipate, thereby leading to a loss of resources. The valuation of these rents and their distribution is not an easy task, because the effect of NTBs in their entirety is usually difficult to quantify due to the different nature of the trade restrictions that make up NTBs. Nevertheless, in the light of the global trend towards tariff liberalization that has been going on for more than a hundred years, this task sometimes becomes more important in the study of trade than classical studies of the impact of import and/or export tariffs, since NTB rents can multiply tariff revenue. One of the possible tools for modeling the impact of NTBs on the economies of various countries (and in particular on the domestic prices of goods), taking into account the existing trade relations between states, are static CGE trading models (from the English Computable General Equilibrium models computable general equilibrium models). One of the objectives of this study is to prepare our own database based on the most recent available statistical data, similar in structure to the GTAP 10 database, but with a smaller number of regions and supplemented with information about the ad valorem equivalents of the goods we are interested in in the context of trading partners. As the results in this study, the following aspects of the work carried out can be distinguished, such as a review of the literature on existing approaches to assessing the imbalances of economies generated by NTM, as well as an analysis of trade in goods and services between the EAEU countries and their main partners, which is necessary for interpreting the results of the numerical modeling stage, a scheme for preparing input data for calibration of the used CGE models.
Abstract
Inevitably, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that exist in trade between countries generate rents associated with them, which can either be distributed in some ratio between trading [...]
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PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LONGEVITY ECONOMY IN THE REGIONS OF RUSSIA
. I.Grishina, A. Polynev, A. Filatov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 216

Abstract
The relevance of the work is justified by the fact that it is devoted to the rapidly developing sector of the economy associated with the needs of the older generation. The growth of this sector is associated with the global trend of population aging. The subject of the study is the comparative level of the quality of life of senior citizens and the potential for the development of the longevity economy in the regions of Russia. Purpose of work: a comprehensive study of the factors and evaluation of the prospects for the development of the longevity economy in the regions of Russia and development of priority areas of regional policy. To achieve the goal, the following tasks were undertaken: analysis of scientific approaches to the study of the factors of formation and assessment of the prospects of the «longevity economy at the national and regional levels in the framework of foreign and domestic experience; development of an approach to a comprehensive assessment of factors and prospects for the development of the longevity economy in the regions of the Russia, taking into account the specifics of national and regional statistics; analysis of demographic, social and economic factors in the formation of the longevity economy and assessment of the prospects for its development in the regions of the Russia; a typology of the regions of the Russia in accordance with the assessment of the prospects for the development of the longevity economy; development of proposals on the priorities of regional policy, taking into account the course on import substitution in the conditions of sanctions pressure and the obtained estimates of the prospects for the development of the longevity economy in the regions of Russia. The scientific novelty of the work is determined by the justification of the typology of Russian regions on the basis of the developed integral quality of the older generation life index and the prospects for the development of the longevity economy. Research methods applied: system, factor and statistical analysis of sectoral development, index method, etc. Based on the application of the author's approach, several Russian regions that need additional federal support to improve the older generation life quality and to develop a longevity economy were identified. Priority measures of regional policy have been developed for such regions. The application of the authors’ approach is recommended for information and methodological support of the state regional policy of Russia and increasing of its effectiveness.
Abstract
The relevance of the work is justified by the fact that it is devoted to the rapidly developing sector of the economy associated with the needs of the older generation. The [...]
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Analysis of the possibilities of improving the quality of forecasting prices for certain types of raw materials using the simplest methods of combining individual forecasts
E. Astafyeva, M. Turuntseva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 215

Abstract
Currently, combining forecasts is considered as the easiest way to improve the quality of forecasting compared to individual models. The purpose of this work is to test the possibilities of the simplest methods of combining, such as a simple average and estimates based on the average squared error of forecasts of previous periods, to improve the qualitative characteristics of short-term forecasts of five indicators of resource prices. The work is based on the forecast base of the Bulletin of Short-term Forecasts of the IEP, which provides an array of primary (combined) forecasts and allows you to build their combinations in real time. The results obtained allow us to conclude that even the simplest methods of combining can be considered as a way to improve the accuracy of forecasts. In addition, in the case of fluctuations in resource prices, it is even possible to single out a group of methods (namely, combining with weights inversely proportional to the squared errors of individual forecasts) that provide the maximum gain in quality for most periods.
Abstract
Currently, combining forecasts is considered as the easiest way to improve the quality of forecasting compared to individual models. The purpose of this work is to test the [...]
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Improving the accuracy of bubble date estimators under time-varying volatility
E. Kurozumi, A. Skrobotov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 214

Abstract
In this study, we consider a four-regime bubble model under the assumption of timevarying volatility and propose an algorithm of estimating the break dates with volatility correction. First, we estimate the emerging date of the explosive bubble, its collapsing date, and its recovering date to the normal market under the assumption of homoskedasticity. Second, we collect the residuals and then employ the weighted-least-squares-based estimation of the bubble dates. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the accuracy of the break date estimators improves significantly via this two-step procedure in some cases compared to those based on the ordinary least squares method.
Abstract
In this study, we consider a four-regime bubble model under the assumption of timevarying volatility and propose an algorithm of estimating the break dates with volatility [...]
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Review of approaches to ecological and economic modeling and assessment of the effects of the development of transport and transport infrastructure on environmental indicators of territories
K. Rostislav, D. Evdokimov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 213

Abstract
The main theoretical and empirical approaches to modeling the interaction between socioeconomic indicators and anthropogenic load on the environment are considered. The most common approaches to measuring the environmental load on territories and population are environmental models IPAT, STIRPAT, modeling the impact of socio-economic characteristics on the environment. Extension of the models also allows taking into account the characteristics of the transportation industry and modeling their impact on the volume of emissions from road transport. According to economic studies, road infrastructure development has a dual impact on the environment. While better infrastructure can help reduce emissions from road transport, it also stimulates economic activity and travel demand, which increases emissions. The emission reduction effect of road network development is more likely to be observed in regions where infrastructure saturation exceeds the level needed to meet current, including latent, travel demand. Thus, the development of road transport infrastructure at a pace that outpaces the economic development of the region can contribute to reducing the environmental burden. In addition, approaches to analyzing causal relationships between variables and assessing the overall, direct and indirect effects of factors on ecology are discussed: structural modeling and path analysis based on the structure of a simple directed graph.
Abstract
The main theoretical and empirical approaches to modeling the interaction between socioeconomic indicators and anthropogenic load on the environment are considered. The most [...]
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A brief overview of theoretical and empirical approaches to solving transport problems and problems on the development of transport networks
K. Rostislav, D. Rusakov, M. Saprykin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 212

Abstract
The paper presents a brief review of some aspects of existing theoretical and empirical research on transportation and transport networks development problems. Despite the fact that in general this direction is well developed in the research literature, in practice some issues require more detailed consideration, in particular, approaches to modeling the transportation of various goods over a multilayer network, representation of transportation and other costs, setting the criteria of optimality of network development. In addition, this paper considers cost functions and variables determining them, the influence of borders on the transport system, optimal routing and its paradoxes.
Abstract
The paper presents a brief review of some aspects of existing theoretical and empirical research on transportation and transport networks development problems. Despite the [...]
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Far East and Far North: how to prevent an outflow of young people
V. Lyashok, N. Mkrtchyan, Y. Florinskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 211

Abstract
The outflow of the population of young working age from the regions of the Far East and the Far North is a serious constraint on the economic and social development of these regions. Unfavorable climatic working and living conditions, underdeveloped economic and social infrastructure, distance from development centers, relatively low wages and lack of career and personal prospects - these factors encourage a significant part of young people to leave the region of the Far East and Far North. The objectives of the study are to answer the following questions: • What is the scale of departure of young people from the Far Eastern Federal District and the Far North? • What are the reasons for their departure? • How reliable are disposal volume statistics? • Is it possible for at least some of the young people to return to the regions of origin and under what conditions? The study was conducted on the basis of Rosstat statistics on the volume and structure of internal migration in Russia for 2011-2020, the results of a sample survey of the labor force in 2029-2022, as well as Rosstat reports “Socio-economic situation in Russia” in 2018-2022. The study shows that published statistics underestimate the real scale of the outflow of young workers from the regions of the Far East and Far North due to the so-called “auto-return” process. The North and Far East are losing young people during migration exchanges with large and major cities in the European part of the country. Large cities of the North and Far East compensate for the loss due to the influx from the periphery of these same regions. Retaining young people in the labor markets of the regions where they were born is only possible if there is an influx of investment into the regional economy and social sphere, and this process should not have the character of a short-term campaign, but be a long-term guarantee for several generations of workers.
Abstract
The outflow of the population of young working age from the regions of the Far East and the Far North is a serious constraint on the economic and social development of these [...]
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Current approaches to the study of local entrepreneurial ecosystems
A. Voloshinskaya, D. Gertsovsky, S. Zemtsov, M. Ivanova, R. Semenova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 210

Abstract
Relevance of the research: In economics, a variety of approaches are used to study local entrepreneurial ecosystems from statistical methods to network analysis, which allow to quantify the scale of a phenomenon or the magnitude of the potential effect. In the case when it is necessary to determine the key causes and factors of the process under study, the methodological tools of the scientist can be expanded through the methods of sociological survey of entrepreneurship. The results of the presented work will allow not only to expand the methodological apparatus of researchers of local SME ecosystems, but also to develop proposals for improving the effectiveness of state support measures for entrepreneurship in the regions of Russia. The aim of the study is to reveal the possibilities of using different methods to study entrepreneurship at the local level, as well as to analyze and generalize Russian and foreign experience in studying entrepreneurship. Research methods and methodology: comparative analysis, system analysis, qualitative analysis, historical and economic analysis. Scientific novelty is the author's classification of possible sociological approaches to the study of SMEs within local entrepreneurial ecosystems, as well as systematization of Russian and international empirical studies of entrepreneurship at the local level and identification of factors that stimulate business development. Results: Sociological methods, namely in-depth interviews, allow us to explore key causal relationships and offer new research hypotheses that can be further evaluated using statistical analysis methods. Achieving sustainable socio-economic development of the region will be facilitated by the implementation of targeted programs to support SMEs, taking into account regional institutional conditions and the specifics of the development of local entrepreneurial ecosystems. The key factors for the development of SMEs are the high volatility of markets, which motivates the development of new ideas for business, the availability of physical and commercial infrastructure. High risks for SMEs are associated with insufficient functional coordination of power structures, the lack of dialogue between business and government, the quality of government support measures implemented and business financing mechanisms. For start-up young entrepreneurs (under 30), the main barriers are the lack of start-up capital and the necessary business competencies, the lack of a business idea, and high taxes.
Abstract
Relevance of the research: In economics, a variety of approaches are used to study local entrepreneurial ecosystems from statistical methods to network analysis, which allow [...]
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Economic resilience: theory and empiricism
S. Zemtsov, M. Ivanova, A. Mikhailov, R. Semenova, A. Voloshinskaya, D. Gertsovsky, V. Komarov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 209

Abstract
Sanctions pressure, disruption of production chains leads to crisis phenomena in the Russian economy in the context of most regions. For both federal and regional authorities, it is necessary not only to understand the main characteristics of the socio-economic development of the regions, but also to consider the sensitivity of regional resilience (shock resilience). The resilience of regions in terms of the rate of decline and recovery of GRP, investment activity, and budget revenues is calculated based on a large number of factors. The causes and factors of crisis phenomena in the economy, as well as the resilience, can be considered in the prism of theory and empiricism and become the basis for understanding public policy and making anti-crisis decisions. The aim of the study is to fully cover the phenomena of shock resilience of the economy using the analysis of theoretical views and empirical approaches. Research methods and methodology: historical-economic, comparative and system analysis, scientific-logical method, cartographic methods, index method. Scientific novelty consists in conducting a thorough and in-depth analysis of theories and concepts that describe the causes and factors of crisis phenomena in the economy with a final presentation of a comprehensive review of them, in which the emphasis is on revealing the historical context of their occurrence and describing crisis theories and models of modern economic reality. In addition, approaches to the definition of the phenomenon of shock resilience are classified, structural aspects and methods for calculating resilience are systematically described, and the author's systematization of works on the study of socioeconomic resilience is presented. Results: The analysis of economic cycles and models of economic crises revealed a regular cyclicity in the development of the views of economists on the nature of economic cycles, causes and overcoming possible consequences. Modern crisis processes happen largely because they are associated with two types of contradictions or imbalances - there are political and financial-economic ones, while the deep causes are universal world processes associated with changes in technological patterns. A grounded theory approach as the qualitative sociological method is becoming more and more in demand in modern studies related to the crisis in the economy; the results of its application to the disease pandemic, for example, showing that the corona crisis is a complex phenomenon that is directly or indirectly affected by the health crisis, government policies and human behavior. Among the most common methods of empirical research of economic resilience, the construction of complex indices and regression analysis of research resilience indicators stand out. The evolution of scientists' views on the causes and factors of crises, a review of the main approaches to the analysis of the phenomena of shock resilience, as well as an analysis of empirical studies of its results at the level of the economy of countries and regions are the main results of this study that expand the possibilities for understanding public policy and making the right anti-crisis decisions.
Abstract
Sanctions pressure, disruption of production chains leads to crisis phenomena in the Russian economy in the context of most regions. For both federal and regional authorities, [...]
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TRENDS IN THE EVOLUTION OF AUTHORITIES OF SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION WITHIN JOINT JURISDICTION WITH THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
V. Klimanov, E. Timushev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 208

Abstract
The relevance of identifying the main trends in the system of powers legally assigned to the subjects of the Russian Federation is due to the lack of relevant work for more than twenty years of its existence. The purpose of the study is to establish the main trends in the evolution of the content and functional areas of the powers of the subjects of the Russian Federation within the joint jurisdiction of the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation in accordance with the federal legislation. The object of the study is the mechanism of distribution of powers in the budgetary system of the Russian Federation. The hypothesis of the study was that during the long period of the formation of the mechanism of the distribution of powers, the goal of their clear differentiation was not achieved, independence of the state authorities remained low, and a new federal law regulating this area did not make cardinal changes. According to the results obtained, federal legislation allows for the actual expansion of the closed list of powers of the subjects of the Russian Federation on within the joint jurisdiction. Taking into account the possibility of delegating federal state powers and the absence of a closed list of powers of the Russian Federation, this causes the absence of a clear distribution of authority between the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation. The tendency to expand the areas assigned to the subjects along with a constant amount of budget revenues actualize the risks of imbalance and financial instability. The novelty of the research consists in establishing the main trends in the evolution of the content and functional areas of the powers of the subjects of the Russian Federation within the joint jurisdiction of the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation. For the first time, the nature of the change in the composition of powers due to the adoption of the new federal law No. 414-FZ instead of federal law No. 184-FZ are analyzed. Research methodology: structural and substantive analysis of federal legislation, grouping and systematization, comparative analysis.
Abstract
The relevance of identifying the main trends in the system of powers legally assigned to the subjects of the Russian Federation is due to the lack of relevant work for more [...]
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE INTERNATIONAL VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING SYSTEMS IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL TURBULENT ECONOMIC SITUATION
V. Blinov, A. Satdykov, L. Kurteeva, Z. Dulaeva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 207

Abstract
The main aim of international comparative studies is to identify trends in the functioning and development of vocational education and training systems, to describe institutional units that ensure successful development of VET system and to identify bottlenecks and problem areas that need to be addressed. Basing on the data obtained, methodological recommendations for the implementation of best practices are usually compiled. When conducting this study, we were limited in information resources, since the topic of VET systems in developing countries of Asia are out of focus for most scientific institutions and researchers. Basing on the existing methodological approaches of international organizations, an analytical framework was developed. Its application made possible, despite scarce information resources, to conduct research of the functioning of VET systems in India, China in the context of global turbulent economic situation. The results obtained testify the great heterogeneity of VET systems. In India even today the most important task remains teaching basic literacy to the majority of population, creating acceptable conditions for students in educational institutions, expanding the availability of vocational education. At the same time, China faces the challenge of transforming the economy into innovative one, and the world's largest VET system must be adapted to the needs of this economy. The implementation of unified and standard solutions derived from the 'reference' systems of vocational education of European countries is unlikely to give a stable positive effect in developing countries. The main conclusion that can be drawn from the results of the analysis conducted is that VET systems are a product of the politics, economy and culture of their countries. Their institutional structure is unique in each case and the mechanisms that allow it to fulfill tasks and to develop require a close and rigorous study. In case of some structural changes to implement, preliminary experimental work is a necessity. The purpose of the preprint is to present the results of a carried comparative analysis of the functioning and development process of vocational education and training systems in developing countries basing on developed analytical framework that makes possible to identify and to compare fundamental institutions, to identify the main trends despite scarce information resources. The study is based on the methodology of system analysis, the method of comparative analysis, the method of systematization and generalization of scientific literature and educational practice, the method of descriptive statistics were used. As a result, the outcome of a comparative analysis of the systems of vocational education and training of "friendly" countries India, China a were presented. The main development trends were highlighted, statistical indicators and the institutional structure of VET were analyzed. The novelty of the is the synthetic methodology for conducting comparative analysis, based on the methodological approaches of the OECD, UNEVOC and the World Bank. The results of the study can be applied while developing the VET policy and implementing institutions that increase the flexibility and adaptability of the VET system to the external impacts.
Abstract
The main aim of international comparative studies is to identify trends in the functioning and development of vocational education and training systems, to describe institutional [...]
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CONVERGENCE OF VALUES IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT
V. Ustyuzhanin, Y. Zinkina, A. Korotaev, V. Arkhangelsky, I. Efremov, D. Pustovalov, K. Novikov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 206

Abstract
Relevance. The issue of convergence/divergence of value systems remains debatable, and the expectation that, as they develop, the countries of the semi-periphery and periphery of the World System will move in one universal direction and become increasingly closer to Western countries does not seem unconditionally justified. The subject of the study is the dynamics of value attitudes of the population of Latin American countries. The purpose of the study is to establish the convergence/distance between the population of Latin American countries and the countries of the Old World in terms of their value systems. The objectives of the study are to predict the dynamics of value attitudes of the population of Latin American countries relative to the countries of the Old World. Scientific novelty – for the first time, the dynamics of value systems of the population of Latin American countries relative to the countries of the Old World is considered. Research method – To analyze the influence of various factors on the two value axes identified by Inglehart, a general additive model with mixed effects on the country (random intercept) was used. Data source – the World Values Survey. Results: in terms of traditional/secular values, the countries of South America had almost no overlap with the countries of Western Europe at the beginning of the 21st century, but the gap is narrowing from year to year. In terms of survival/self-expression values, there is a certain kind of conservation of persistent differences between the developing countries of the New World and the developed countries of the Old World, when both regions almost do not overlap. Conclusions – over time, largely thanks to the rapid breakthrough of developing countries, the world will converge along the axis of traditionalreligious/secular-rational values. Recommendations. The New World is increasingly catching up with the Old World in terms of secular-rational values, which should be considered when forecasting the sociocultural dynamics of this region. However, this does not mean that Latin America will become completely identical to Western Europe in terms of religiosity/secularism.
Abstract
Relevance. The issue of convergence/divergence of value systems remains debatable, and the expectation that, as they develop, the countries of the semi-periphery and periphery [...]
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WHERE BRICS IS HEADING: DEMOGRAPHIC AND VALUE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS
V. Ustyuzhanin, Y. Zinkina, A. Korotaev, V. Arkhangelsky, I. Efremov, D. Pustovalov, K. Novikov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 205

Abstract
Relevance. The relevance of “non-Western” associations of states, such as BRICS, is rapidly increasing as the global world order is in transit to multipolarity, going through geopolitical aggravation. The subject of the study is the demographic future of the BRICS countries and value shifts in these countries. The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of the demographic future of the BRICS countries on the prevalence of certain value attitudes among the population of these countries. The objectives of the study are to construct scenario forecasts for the demographic future of the BRICS countries and forecast the most significant consequences of each scenario in terms of shifts in value attitudes. Novelty – for the first time, the consequences of certain demographic development scenarios of the BRICS countries for the value landscape of these countries are considered. Research method: to construct scenario demographic forecasts, a cohort-component model (“age shifts”) of the “female-based” type was used. Data sources – to determine the value portrait of the country, the WVS data of the seventh wave was used; a country’s place on the map of values is determined by two axes – the axis of survival/selfexpression values and the axis of traditional-religious/secular-rational values. Results – it is shown that negative demographic scenario can lead to a noticeable weakening of BRICS both economically (due to a reduction in labor resources) and in value-cultural terms on the world stage. Conclusions – the implementation of the BRICS+ project will contribute to the significant impact of the union on the value-cultural map of the world. Recommendations. If the governments of China and Brazil do not soon take care of the problems of fertility rates and do not introduce the most active measures to support them, then the countries will find themselves in a “fertility trap” with a strong decline in population that cannot be compensated by migration. India should also begin to develop and take measures to support fertility rates, because due to active modernization, they will begin to naturally decline (which is what has been happening over the last decade, especially in the developed south of the country). Russia needs to simultaneously both pursue a proactive fertility-supporting policy, eliminate excess mortality from unhealthy lifestyles, and increase health care spending.
Abstract
Relevance. The relevance of “non-Western” associations of states, such as BRICS, is rapidly increasing as the global world order is in transit to multipolarity, [...]
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Practices of preparing students of vocational educational organizations for the process of labor adaptation
G. Golub, V. Prudnikova, I. Fishman, L. Fishman

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 204

Abstract
The relevance of the research is determined by the increasing importance of professional qualities of an individual, ensuring quick and successful labor adaptation, in connection with the situation of production restructuring, including those due to a change in technological priorities in several industries and the import substitution strategy, as well as instability of regional labor markets. The object of observation is working practices both individual events and features of the educational process as a whole – aimed at ensuring successful labor adaptation of graduates of vocational educational organizations. The purpose of the research is to identify the practices of vocational educational organizations aimed at ensuring successful labor adaptation of graduates and assessing its effectiveness on the part of the management of these organizations, as well as the attitude of managers to the task of developing key competencies of graduates as a resource for labor adaptation. The research tool is an unstructured interview. Main results. A contradiction was identified between the need for regular labor adaptation in connection with both a change of workplace and fundamental changes in the conditions and requirements for the occupied workplace and the position of the management of vocational educational organizations, whose representatives see their task in employing a graduate and facilitating his/her retention in the workplace, and not in the formation of a personal resource for his/her successful adaptation. Employees of vocational education and training (VET) organizations share the idea that the basic components of the personal resource for labor adaptation are universal competencies in the field of communication, working with information and problem solving, but these ideas in most cases are not implemented in educational activities. At the same time, it was possible to identify and describe the practices of individual VETs that ensure the formation of a personal resource for labor adaptation, which can be recommended for dissemination. Scientific novelty. Based on a survey of the management of VET organizations, current practices in preparing young people studying in VET programs for the process of labor adaptation are described and analyzed; in the aggregate of which practices are identified which allow the formation of a set of qualities that are a personal resource for labor adaptation. Recommendations. The results obtained make it possible to adjust the target orientation and update the processes of preparing graduates for the process of labor adaptation using the practices of educational organizations that are adequate to the purpose. The results of the study can be used by federal and regional educational authorities to set tasks for professional educational organizations and vocational education and training organizations in terms of selecting means to solve the problem of forming a personal resource for labor adaptation.
Abstract
The relevance of the research is determined by the increasing importance of professional qualities of an individual, ensuring quick and successful labor adaptation, in connection [...]
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THE IMPACT OF THE DYNAMICS OF THE RUBLE EXCHANGE RATE ON THE INFLOW OF FOREIGN INVESTMENTS INTO THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND THE CONDITIONS OF SANCTIONS
K. Bagdasaryan, M. Baeva, Y. Zaitsev, A. Knobel, A. Loschenkova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 203

Abstract
The statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) for 2017 published in early April by the Central Bank of Russia shows a change in the dynamics of an increase in FDI inflows to the Russian Federation that was outlined in 2016 and in the first three quarters of 2017. The slowdown in capital inflows in 4Q 2017 reflected the deteriorating sentiment of foreign investors associated with negative expectations of new US sanctions, as well as a drop in demand for Russian government bonds. Positive investor sentiment was reflected by the positive dynamics of FDI flows in the first three quarters of 2017, when the level of incoming FDI amounted to USD 24.8 billion, which is more than 2 times compared to the same period in 2016. The increase in inflows over this period is due to transactions such as the sale of a 10% stake in the Russian petrochemical holding Sibur to the Chinese Silk Road Fund, the launch of the construction of a Mercedes-Benz automobile plant by the German company Daimler in the Esipovo industrial park, which became the first largest project after the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions by the Western company in Russia. Existing assessments of the impact of sanctions on key macroeconomic indicators provide a rough understanding of their significance for foreign investors. Under the new conditions, foreign investors developed their own approaches to respond to the sanctions regime, depending on their sectoral specialization and the degree of orientation towards the Russian and/or foreign markets. Nevertheless, according to the results of 2017, the volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) attracted to Russia from the EU countries exceeded USD 14 billion (which is more than 6 times the level of 2016). Consequently, a high potential for investment cooperation remains between Russia and the EU countries, despite the sanctions regime. Relevance of the study: portfolio and foreign direct investment are an important source of capital that complements domestic private investment and is often associated with creating new jobs, stimulating technological exchange and encouraging overall economic growth in host countries. Important factors in FDI inflows are the level of the exchange rate and its volatility. The need for an empirical analysis of the impact of the exchange rate on FDI inflows to Russia is caused by the currency crisis of 2014-2015, when the Russian ruble devalued due to the fall in world oil prices, as well as a number of foreign policy events. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the level of the exchange rate and its trend on the inflow of direct and portfolio foreign investment in the Russian Federation. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks will be solved: – Review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the role of the exchange rate in the inflow of foreign investment; – Analysis of foreign direct investment flows in Russia and in the world; – Building models that take into account the impact of the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia on the inflow of foreign direct investment in the sectors of the Russian economy; – Evaluation of econometric models to study the influence of the exchange rate on the inflow of foreign direct investment to the countries of the world in order to test the hypotheses put forward in the work; – Interpretation of the results and development of recommendations for the Russian foreign economic policy, taking into account the results of the study. The initial data of the work were statistical databases, both international and Russian, in particular, open statistical data provided by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Eurasian Economic Commission, regulatory and program documents regulating the activities of the regions of the Russian Federation with a special (special legal) regime for the implementation of entrepreneurial and other activities, as well as cases of the largest and most successful investment projects implemented on the territory of individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
Abstract
The statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) for 2017 published in early April by the Central Bank of Russia shows a change in the dynamics of an increase in FDI inflows [...]
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MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT STRATEGIES OF FOREIGN COMPANIES IN RUSSIA IN THE CONTEXT OF THEIR FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITIES A. Knobel, Yu Zaytsev, D. Kuznetsov
A. Knobel, Y. Zaytsev, D. Kuznetsov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 202

Abstract
This working paper is devoted to identifying patterns of spatial and sectoral distribution of foreign direct investment enterprises in the Russian Federation and to developing recommendations for optimizing the strategy of attracting foreign direct investment to the Russian Federation. In the framework of the study, the following methods were applied: the method of macroeconomic modeling, evaluation of econometric models, as well as logical, systemic, comparative, economic and statistical analysis. Statistical data at the enterprise level were used from the «RUSLANA» and «SPARK-INTERFAX» databases. The results of the study allows to point out some characteristic features of the spatial distribution of foreign enterprises, which must be taken into account when forming a picture of preferences of foreign investors and the policy of attracting foreign investors to Russian regions.
Abstract
This working paper is devoted to identifying patterns of spatial and sectoral distribution of foreign direct investment enterprises in the Russian Federation and to developing [...]
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New Challenges for the Russian Energy Industry
V. Potashnikov, P. Levakov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 201

Abstract
Currently many sectors of the Russian economy, including the fuel and energy sector, are undergoing structural changes. This is due both to the energy transformation (a significant change in the structure of the energy balance) and the recent events of 2022. The article analyzes how these changes will affect the Russian energy sector. Firstly, the risks of reducing natural gas exports to the EU countries are assessed. Gas supplies to the EU are a significant part of Russia's export earnings, and the supplies themselves are difficult to redirect to other directions. Secondly, it is analyzed how recent changes will affect the development of the energy sector using the example of two scenarios for the development of the energy industry before and after 2022. Finally, it is assessed how the changes that have taken place will affect the effectiveness of an active climate policy in Russia. The possibility of a reduction in domestic demand for gas in the EU or an increase in production is unlikely. However, an increase in LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports is possible, which may allow the EU to abandon natural gas imports from Russia in the coming years. EU nominal regasification capacity allows for a potential increase in EU LNG imports by 110 billion cubic meters per year. This can be done both by redirecting supplies from other countries to the EU, and by increasing production and liquefaction of LNG. As a result of an increased sanctions pressure, with a high degree of probability, without an active climate policy, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will increase significantly. In addition to climate effects and associated negative environmental impact, this also negatively affects the prospects for economic development. Thus, greater consumption of fossil fuels makes the economy more dependent on their prices and reduces the potential for an increase in the volume of export. An analysis of decarbonization scenarios has shown that because of the recent events, an active climate policy will cost more, with more modest results.
Abstract
Currently many sectors of the Russian economy, including the fuel and energy sector, are undergoing structural changes. This is due both to the energy transformation (a significant [...]
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Consequences of economic inequality of countries dependent on oil exports
M. Shapor

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 200

Abstract
The final part of the presented study, which consisted of four parts, is devoted to assessing the consequences of the economic inequality of countries, including those dependent on the export of hydrocarbon energy. Note that the estimates presented in this paper also cover the period of various types of sanctions, which also have certain consequences for income inequality. Based on the presented thesis, the purpose of this part of the study is to assess the consequences of economic inequality in the group of countries under study based on the use of econometric models, as well as to conduct a dynamic assessment of indicators of income inequality between countries.
Abstract
The final part of the presented study, which consisted of four parts, is devoted to assessing the consequences of the economic inequality of countries, including those dependent [...]
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SHARE OF SCHOOL GRADUATES ENTERING HIGHER EDUCATION IS DECLINING
E. Lomteva, L. Bedareva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 199

Abstract
Social and economic changes resulted in a transformation of youth’ values: the attitude towards higher education, granting both social status and, consequently, privileges in employment, became a history. However, the changes taking place in Russia, external to the vocational education system, may have a serious impact on the behavior of young people in the near future, especially young men, who will be more targeted to enroll in full-time higher education programs.
Abstract
Social and economic changes resulted in a transformation of youth’ values: the attitude towards higher education, granting both social status and, consequently, privileges [...]
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FOOD INSECURE HOUSEHOLD GROUPS: DEFINITION AND CHARACTERISTICS
V. Uzun, N. Shagaida, D. Ternovskiy, A. Potapova, E. Shishkina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 198

Abstract
The relevance of the topic - assessing the level of economic access to food - remains poorly developed in Russia. This study aims to fill this gap within the framework of the main ideas of the Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation. The purpose of this work is to develop approaches for assessing the level of food security among household members and highlight the main characteristics of households with different levels of food insecurity. The statistical basis for this study is the microdata from budget surveys conducted by Rosstat. The main content and results of this study are as follows: The concept of "food insecurity of the household" and its members is introduced. An overview of approaches used in different countries to identify individuals experiencing food insecurity is provided. The focus of the assessment shifts from evaluating the level of economic affordability of food based on decile groups and available resources to assessing the level of economic affordability of food for each household member. This analysis highlights the main characteristics of households or their members with varying levels of food insecurity.
Abstract
The relevance of the topic - assessing the level of economic access to food - remains poorly developed in Russia. This study aims to fill this gap within the framework of [...]
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THE FORMATION OF A METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING THE STATE OF PERSONNEL WORK AND THE PERSONNEL OF THE STATE CIVIL SERVICE USING THE SERVICES OF FEDERAL STATE INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND OTHER PLATFORM SOLUTIONS
I. Sheburakov, O. Sheburakova, L. Tatarinova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 197

Abstract
The relevance of the research is due to the need to form a system of personnel audit in the civil service through the application of a unified methodology using the capabilities of the national information system for managing the personnel of the state civil service. The purpose of the research is to develop a methodology for a comprehensive analysis of the personnel, its processes (personnel dynamics) and the conditions of personnel work in the state civil service in the federal executive authorities and authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation using the services of state information systems and other platform solutions.The objectives of the study are: to determine the conceptual foundations of the personnel audit of the state civil service; the development of a system of indicators characterizing the effectiveness of personnel management processes; the study of the possibility of the integration system and accumulation of information, analytical and statistical data, depending on the areas of personnel audit; the determination of the need for the development of specialized diagnostic tools to reach the goals of personnel audit; the development of a methodology for conducting a personnel audit, including: technologies for analyzing personnel processes (HR analytics); personnel statistics; algorithms for integrating data on the level of maturity of personnel and management technologies; the results of standardized socio-psychological surveys and public opinion surveys, as well as the possibility of taking into account the results of personal and professional diagnostics; preparation of a "road" map for the implementation of a methodology for analyzing the state of personnel work and the staffing of the state civil service in federal executive authorities and authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation using state information systems services and other platform solutions; description of the methodology for organizing and conducting an audit of the state of the civil service in the federal executive authorities and authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation; preparation of the regulative document’s draft fixing the methodology. The research methods and methodology: the comparative analysis, the method of expert assessments, the appraisal work, the analysis of statistical data, the group discussion method, the results of sociopsychological surveys and personal and professional diagnostics. While summarizing and analyzing empirical materials, methods of statistical data processing were used. The main practical results of the study: the preparation of a "road" map for the implementation of a methodology for analyzing the state of personnel work and personnel of the state civil service in federal executive authorities and authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation using the services of state information systems and other platform solutions; the preparation of a methodology for organizing and conducting an audit of the state of the civil service in federal executive authorities and authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation: the general procedure for organizing and conducting an audit, criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of each element of the work, the general estimated indicators of the personnel services work, the procedure for eliminating shortcomings; the preparation of the regulative document’s draft fixing the methodology; the development of a methodology for conducting a personnel audit, including: technologies for analyzing personnel processes (HR analytics); personnel statistics (data on the personnel, staff turnover, absenteeism, reasons for dismissals, etc.). The main conclusions: the results of the research can be useful for scientific and methodological support for improving the mechanisms for implementing personnel policy and personnel technologies in the state civil service; a comprehensive increase in the effectiveness of personnel policy in the state civil service, including increasing the involvement of employees in the processes of personal professional and career development, reducing the possibility of unreasonable personnel decisions and corruption risks; reducing the imbalance in the processes of managing human resources in the system of the state civil service. The research prospects may be related to: refinement of the results and conclusions obtained through testing in one of the federal government bodies, as well as the development of algorithms for using the services of the Federal State Information Systems and other platform solutions that allow systematizing the data obtained and using the results of data analysis in operational activities.
Abstract
The relevance of the research is due to the need to form a system of personnel audit in the civil service through the application of a unified methodology using the capabilities [...]
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Toward a competence model of data literacy for middle and secondary school
A. Deryabin, A. Popov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 196

Abstract
The study examines the practices of teaching data literacy for adolescents. The intersections of data literacy with statistical literacy, quantitative thinking, computational skills, and Data Science are explored. A competence model for data literacy is introduced with key competency clusters – technical, scientific, and social – aligned with the components of a scientific practice and data mining research cycle. The conclusions underscore the importance of students engaging in the exploration and modeling of socio-humanitarian data as part of their learning process. This content, firstly, aligns most closely with the sociocognitive specificity of the age, secondly, it lays the foundations for students’ interdisciplinary understanding of contemporary phenomena, which is in demand across a wide range of professions. Future directions encompass refining the data literacy model, creating methodological resources for developing data literacy within education systems, and providing pedagogical guidance and materials for educators adopting data literacy techniques.
Abstract
The study examines the practices of teaching data literacy for adolescents. The intersections of data literacy with statistical literacy, quantitative thinking, computational [...]
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Modern Approaches to Modeling the Function of Household Consumption on Microeconomic Data
M. Shapor

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 195

Abstract
As part of the presented literature review, foreign and Russian experience in using microeconomic data to model the household consumption function using various types of models for the US, EU and Russia, based on the respective types of panel data: PSID, ECHP and RLMS, respectively, is considered. The construction of such models is necessary for the state in connection with the need to achieve a rational level of differentiation of incomes and consumption of the population. Thus, the purpose of the presented work is to analyze the approaches used to assess the level of income of the population based on the use of panel microeconomic data for the US, EU and Russia.
Abstract
As part of the presented literature review, foreign and Russian experience in using microeconomic data to model the household consumption function using various types of models [...]
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Macroeconomic Forecasting with the Use of News Data
D. Mikhailov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 194

Abstract
During the last decade a lot of academic papers consider the possibility of predicting the economic fluctuations and macroeconomic variables volatility with the use of news data. The reason for this is the development of new machine learning techniques and enhancement of the existed methods. The scientific problem of our study is the investigation of whether predictive power of the forecast of macroeconomic variables can be improved with the use of news data in the context of Russia. We apply NLU algorithms and techniques for topic modeling. Especially, we implement LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) since this approach has shown its effectiveness in the published papers related to the mentioned framework. Then the frequency news and sentiment news indexes are constructed with the use of modeled topics. The end point of our research is the forecast analysis of the set of macroeconomics variables [CPI (π), Business Confidence Index (BCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), Export (EX), Import (IM), Net Export (NX)] supplemented by inclusion of frequency and sentiment news indexes in order to evaluated the improvement in predictive power. We have shown that the inclusion of frequency news indexes and sentiment news indexes, based on the LDA approach in the forecast models can improve the quality of the predictions and increase the predictive power for some variables.
Abstract
During the last decade a lot of academic papers consider the possibility of predicting the economic fluctuations and macroeconomic variables volatility with the use of news [...]
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Institutional foundations and peculiarities of the classification of income inequality in countries with a raw material oriented economy
M. Shapor

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 193

Abstract
In the presented work, various aspects and methods for conducting a quantitative assessment of the relationship between income inequality and the level of institutionalization of the country's economy are considered. As the main quantitative method for assessing income inequality, this study uses the regression analysis technique, as well as vector autoregressive models.
Abstract
In the presented work, various aspects and methods for conducting a quantitative assessment of the relationship between income inequality and the level of institutionalization [...]
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Relationship between inequality and economic growth in countries highly dependent on oil exports
M. Shapor

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 192

Abstract
This section of the work is devoted to the analysis of the relationship between inequality and economic growth in countries with a high dependence on oil exports. In this section, as in the first part of the study, approaches to modeling the relationship of various types of inequality, mainly related to income inequality in countries with a high dependence on oil exports, are considered, but not from the point of view of the quality of the institutional development of the countries under study, but in the context of dependence of the formation of the revenue part of the country's budget on the export of hydrocarbon energy. Thus, the purpose of this study was to determine the place and role of oil revenues in modeling the relationship between income inequality and economic growth in oil exporting countries and to quantify their significance in reducing inequality in the country and increasing economic growth rates.
Abstract
This section of the work is devoted to the analysis of the relationship between inequality and economic growth in countries with a high dependence on oil exports. In this [...]
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Modern trends and problems of income inequality in an open economy
M. Shapor

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 191

Abstract
This section of the present study analyzes current trends and problems of income inequality. It should be noted that the studies structurally analyzed in the work were divided taking into account the theoretical, country, as well as the general part concerning the most modern aspects of international trade related to the sanctions confrontation and the coronavirus pandemic.
Abstract
This section of the present study analyzes current trends and problems of income inequality. It should be noted that the studies structurally analyzed in the work were divided [...]
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INDONESIA’S CLIMATE POLICY
I. Popova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 190

Abstract
This paper studies Indonesia’s climate policy and its transformation in the context of the geopolitical and economic crisis. Indonesia is one of the world's fastest growing economies and a major emitter. Its actions to combat climate change will facilitate achievement of Paris goals globally. In addition, the country is playing an increasing role in developing the tools of global economic governance, including in the field of climate. The purpose of the study is to distinguish the main priorities and directions of Indonesia's climate policy and their transformation. Based on the results of the study, the authors conclude that Indonesia is demonstrating its commitment to the goals of decarbonization, showing its readiness to introduce even the strictest instruments, including carbon pricing. International partners need to support Indonesia's aspirations and efforts as they advance the achievement of the Paris goals. The principle of common and differentiated responsibilities enshrined in the UNFCCC processes takes into account the national context, therefore, given the centrality of coal to the economic development model and the traditionally high share of emissions from land and forest use, Indonesia's strategy and policy can be considered ambitious.
Abstract
This paper studies Indonesia’s climate policy and its transformation in the context of the geopolitical and economic crisis. Indonesia is one of the world's fastest [...]
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Trends and imbalances in the development of additional professional education for workers and specialists
S. Alasheev, T. Kuteinitsyna, N. Postalyuk, V. Prudnikova, E. Reprintseva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 189

Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the current Russian agenda in the field of personnel advanced training and retraining in connection with the change in technological priorities and the policy of 'import substitution'. The objects of observation were the programs of advanced training and professional retraining of workers, employees and mid-level specialists being implemented in the regions of Russia and the organizations providing these programs. The purpose of the study is to identify the state and trends in the development of the system of personnel with applied qualifications advanced training and professional retraining in the context of transformations in the qualification demand in regional labor markets. The research tools included indicators that characterize various aspects of the implementation process and results of additional professional programs for personnel with applied qualifications. To describe the structure of data and their distributions, dynamic and structural analysis, mapping and other tools of descriptive statistics were used. Main results. Inter-regional differences and intra-regional disproportions in the field of additional professional education and training of workers and mid-level specialists in Russia are revealed. Significant disproportions in the employment structures of the regions in the context of workers categories and contingents of advanced training and retraining programs for personnel with applied qualifications have been established. A rating of subjects of the Russian Federation to the Structural Imbalance Index, which fixes the level of mismatch between the coverage of additional professional programs for workers and mid-level specialists and their place in the region labor market was formed. Scientific novelty. For the first time, a comprehensive study of the evolution of additional vocational education and training of workers, employees and mid-level specialists was carried out, in which inter-regional and intra-regional comparisons were made, revealing trends and disproportions in its development, taking into account the regional economic context. Recommendations. The data obtained make it possible to assess the extent to which the potential of personnel with applied qualifications is maintained, increased and updated in the Russian regions, taking into account their place in the structure of employment of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation. The results of the study can be used by federal and regional executive authorities in order to eliminate imbalances in the quality of labor markets staffing.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the current Russian agenda in the field of personnel advanced training and retraining in connection with the change in technological [...]
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DYNAMICS OF THE POPULATION'S ATTITUDE TO THE NON-CRIMINAL SHADOW ECONOMY
A. Pokida, N. Zybunovskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 188

Abstract
The scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center for Socio-Political Monitoring of the Institute of Social Sciences of the RANEPA. The relevance of research. Involvement of a significant part of the employed population in shadow processes. The demand for the shadow market of goods and services among the population. The need to obtain regular operational scientific information about the processes taking place in the shadow labor market in the new socio-economic reality, as well as the effect of the measures already taken aimed at limiting the shadow labor market. The purpose of the study is to analyze and evaluate of the dynamics of the prevalence of shadow forms of relationships in the modern labor market. The subject of the study is the main trends in the shadow labor market in modern conditions. The main research method is an all-Russian sociological survey of the employed Russian population and a comparison of the results obtained with the results of previous surveys. Based on the results of the study, an analysis and assessment of the attitude of the employed population to non-criminal shadow economic activity, from the point of view of the involvement of the population in the shadow labor market and the consumption of products produced on it. The study allows us to draw the following conclusions. Over the past year, there has been a decrease in the involvement of workers in various forms of shadow relations in the labor market. The decrease in the participation of respondents is recorded for various forms of their employment in the shadow labor market, including main and additional work. A significant part of the respondents still believe that informal (shadow) economic activity brings both benefits and harm to society in equal measure. This rather loyal attitude of employed citizens to informal employment and tax evasion supports the shadow labor market and creates prerequisites for their personal participation in shadow processes. The results of the study demonstrate a certain effect of the activities of state authorities to limit the participation of workers in the shadow labor market. Among those engaged in private practice, the attractiveness of using the new tax regime (NPD) is noted. At the same time, the fear of changing the conditions of the experiment act as constraining factors for its use among potential users. The results of the study demonstrate that awareness of the illegality of non-payment of taxes and the need to bear responsibility in this case is gradually increasing among citizens. Scientific novelty lies in obtaining up-to-date sociological information about the main trends in the field of noncriminal shadow economic activity, including the dynamics of population involvement in the shadow labor market. The recommendations based on the results of the study are related to the need to adjust management decisions in the field of stimulating official employment and limiting the participation of the population in the shadow labor market.
Abstract
The scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center for Socio-Political Monitoring of the Institute of Social Sciences of the RANEPA. The relevance of [...]
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The impact of crises on the sustainable development of regions: foreign empirical evidence
V. Barinova, K. Demidova, P. Levakov, F. Petrosyan

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 187

Abstract
The current frequency of crises and the increasing risks to the sustainable development of regions around the world create a need for significant research on this issue. The relevance of the proposed work lies in the high degree of importance of the concept of sustainable development for Russia and the entire world community. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the presentation of the most detailed analysis of current foreign studies on the impact of crisis phenomena on the sustainable development of regions - at the same time, various crises are considered, including the global financial crisis of 2008, the COVID19 pandemic, as well as natural disasters, humanitarian disasters, etc. In addition, a wide range of aspects of sustainable development are presented, which are subject to the influence of crisis phenomena. The purpose of this literature review is to present a wide range of approaches to managing risks to the sustainable development of regions caused by crisis phenomena. At the same time, the tasks set are to study the very concept of a crisis, analyze the theoretical approaches of schools of regional development, study aspects of sustainable development, as well as identify the impact of crisis phenomena on the sustainable development of regions and present sustainable regional strategies to combat crisis phenomena. The main research method is literature analysis. Based on the results of the work, it was concluded that in foreign literature the impact of crises on regional sustainable development is considered from different perspectives. When analyzing one specific case, it is important to take into account the following variables: the scale of the crisis (local, global), the nature of the crisis (economic, political, environmental, social), the resilience of the region to the crisis, cultural and historical factors, social capital. Sustainable regional development is one of the processes that are affected by the crisis associated with the environmental, social, economic and even political component.
Abstract
The current frequency of crises and the increasing risks to the sustainable development of regions around the world create a need for significant research on this issue. The [...]
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ESSENTIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF PEDAGOGICAL SUPPORT CHILDREN IN DIFFICULT LIFE SITUATIONS IN RUSSIA AND ABROAD
I. Popova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 186

Abstract
The relevance of the study we determine the need to study pedagogical support as a factor that can have a significant impact on the formation of conditions for the development and positive socialization of children in difficult situations. Addressing this issue is associated with the solution of problems of the state level in terms of prevention of destructive phenomena in children and adolescents. The subject of the study is the specifics of the conditions of pedagogical support for children in difficult life situations in Russian and foreign practice. The purpose of the study: analysis of scientific approaches and developments that provide theoretical and methodological justification and effectiveness of practical activities to provide pedagogical support for children in difficult life situations as a condition for preventing victimization of the child population and the development of destructive phenomena in the child and adolescent environment. The basis of the study were the results of content analysis of Russian dissertations for the period 1996-2019 years and foreign scientific articles in the framework of the stated problems. Research methods: content analysis of dissertation studies and scientific publications, systematization, analysis and synthesis of the information obtained. Scientific novelty of the study is to assess the current state and development of the problems of pedagogical support for children in difficult situations in contemporary Russian scientific research. As a result, we found that Russian scholars in their dissertations widely presented the areas of study of pedagogical support. The study examined 340 Russian dissertations for degrees in pedagogy and psychology. Among the angles of scientific development of the problems of pedagogical support are the varied aspects of support for children with difficulties in the educational process (56%), issues of support for students (27%), and families (17%). However, Russian researchers have reflected the specifics of pedagogical support for children in difficult situations in a small number of works (14%), usually focused on children with disabilities. Among the deficient aspects of studying pedagogical support are such areas as research on comparative basis (2%), development of methodological and technological support of pedagogical support (14%), addressing the problem of teachers' readiness to provide pedagogical support to children in the educational process (13%). Russian scholars in their dissertation studies have not sufficiently disclosed the potential of the participatory approach in solving the problems of pedagogical support (14%). Based on the results obtained, the main conclusion is that the study of the essential characteristics of the phenomenon of pedagogical support for children of socially vulnerable categories is important for the development of pedagogical science. Currently, science and practice are in demand to develop promising scientific directions for the methodology of designing conditions of support for various groups of children in difficult life situations, not focusing only on children with disabilities. There is a particular need to develop scientific research on this issue in the direction of supporting children from low-income families, from migrant families, from families with socially destructive educational content. Recommendations: at a time of global geopolitical transformation, in order to create conditions for the development and positive socialization of children in difficult situations, it is necessary to disseminate among practicing teachers the results of scientific developments in the field of pedagogical support for children of socially vulnerable categories. The model of resistant schools, which has proven effective in working with children from families with low socio-economic and cultural status, should now be widely implemented in the Russian education system. In the conditions of Russian reality, the application of an empathic and participatory approach and facilitation. Implementation of these recommendations is possible if teachers and heads of educational organizations are better prepared to master modern evidence-based approaches and evidence-based practices in solving the problems of pedagogical support for children of socially vulnerable categories.
Abstract
The relevance of the study we determine the need to study pedagogical support as a factor that can have a significant impact on the formation of conditions for the development [...]
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Challenges of Digital Platforms Regulation
M. Larionova, A. Shelepov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 185

Abstract
The working paper studies the problems of digital platforms regulation related to consumer protection, countering anti-competitive practices, designing preventive (ex-ante) regulations, interdepartmental and international cooperation. The study is highly relevant since digital platforms act as private regulators of their ecosystems. They set rules for users, shape the business environment, control the implementation of rules and the behavior of ecosystem participants. Thus, digital platforms control the behavior of citizens and businesses, while they (until recently) have not been controlled by the state and society. The working paper aims to analyze the main challenges that states face when shaping the new and extending the existing regulatory practices to digital platforms’ activities. Based on the results of the study, the authors assess the main regulatory challenges related to consumer protection, countering the monopoly behavior of developing platforms, developing ex-ante measures, establishing cooperation between various government bodies and international cooperation. The authors conclude with recommendations for improving digital platforms regulation, taking into account the identified challenges.
Abstract
The working paper studies the problems of digital platforms regulation related to consumer protection, countering anti-competitive practices, designing preventive (ex-ante) [...]
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RESEARCH OF LEGAL AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT FOR THE RETARGETING OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION TO DIVERSE EQUIPMENT AND TECHNOLOGIES (INCLUDING IMPORT SUBSTITUTION)
V. Blinov, S. Osadcheva, L. Kurteeva, Z. Dulaeva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 184

Abstract
The aim of a study on the legal and regulatory framework for the retargeting of industrial production to diverse equipment and technologies is to identifying the stages and directions for the development of sectors of the economy that are strategically important for the country (end-to-end technologies, critical industries, etc.). The idea is to analyze the logic of the state regulation, tracking measures in terms of implementation of anti-sanction policy, fixing opportunities and conditions for import substitution and import independence. The data obtained are the first stage of the study on retargeting of industrial production to diverse equipment and technologies, including import substitution. The main conclusion that can be drawn from the results of the analysis is that monitoring state regulation allows us to see the logic of the retargeting of industrial production to diverse equipment and technologies, to see emerging of a system of measures to counter the sanctions policy, and also to identify the conditions for import substitution. The purpose of the preprint is to present the results of the study on the legal framework for the retargeting of industrial production to diverse equipment and technologies (including import substitution), which makes it possible to see the stages and sequence of application of state regulation mechanisms. The research is based on the methodology of system analysis, the method of systematization and generalization of the regulatory legal framework is used. During the study, regulatory legal documents were studied in chronological order, considering them as a set of tools (mechanisms) for the retargeting of industrial production to diverse equipment and technologies (including import substitution). The results of the study can be applied while developing public policy that can enhances the flexibility and adaptability of the system of vocational education and training system in the context of the retargeting of industrial production, technology and software, taking into account industry specifics (end-to-end technologies, critical industries, etc.) and the anti-sanction measures.
Abstract
The aim of a study on the legal and regulatory framework for the retargeting of industrial production to diverse equipment and technologies is to identifying the stages and [...]
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International practices of supporting small and medium-sized enterprises’ (SMEs’) in times of coronavirus pandemic crisis
V. Barinova, P. Levakov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 183

Abstract
The small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) are the most vulnerable in times of crisis due to their scarce resources: financial, human, information etc., that is why the issues of providing support to entrepreneurs are relevant during crisis. The analysis of SMEs’ support international practices during recent economic crisis caused by COVID-19 infection might be used to form new approaches to supporting entrepreneurship in times of crises in Russia. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the analysis of foreign practices of supporting SMEs during the recent COVID-19 crisis. The purpose of this article is to summarize international experience in supporting SMEs in times of crisis. For this, the following objectives were set: the analysis of institutional, fiscal, monetary and regional measures of supporting entrepreneurs during the pandemic, as well as the analysis of the empirical works that access their effectiveness. General scientific methods are applied - generalizations, comparisons, synthesis, inductive approach. The authors come to the following conclusions: In response to the economic crisis caused by coronavirus, many countries have taken comprehensive measures to support small and medium-sized businesses; the most common are fiscal support measures, which include grants for entrepreneurs, direct investment, finance guarantees, temporary reimbursement of expenses and temporary tax holidays for entrepreneurs. According to the first empirical evidence, the most significant positive effect is caused by measures aimed at reducing the tax burden on entrepreneurs and compensating for their operating expenses.
Abstract
The small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) are the most vulnerable in times of crisis due to their scarce resources: financial, human, information etc., that is why the [...]
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CURRENT STATE OF FACILITIES AND EQUIPMENT WITHIN VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TECHNICAL SYSTEM GIVEN INTENSIFYING IMPORT SUBSTITUTION PROCESSES IN RUSSIA (CLUSTER ANALYSIS)
V. Blinov, I. Sergeev, E. Esenina, A. Satdykov, Z. Dulaeva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 182

Abstract
Sanctions and import substitution processes in Russian enterprises have changed not only the catalogue of equipment used but, in many cases, even technological processes. This is a serious challenge for the vocational education and training system (VET), that has to adapt to new economic environment. The purpose of the preprint is to find out to what extant Russian VET organizations are prepared to solve the problem of updating technologies and replacing previously imported equipment based on the data obtained during an empirical study. The study is based on the methodology of acquisition of empirical data using an electronic form of a questionnaire that included 22 closed questions. Primary results obtained were processed applying cluster analysis, generalization, grouping and ranking approaches. As a result: a low degree of readiness of Russian VET organizations to take part in solving problems of import substitution and to participate in achieving technological sovereignty goals set by Government was revealed. The contribution of employers to the process of modernizing facilities and equipment in VET organizations turned out to be much less than it was expected. Different management strategies used by an educational organization has a little effect on the quality of its infrastructure. Availability of financial sources in the regions of Russian Federation and capability of organizations to obtain them play the leading role. The nature and level of influence of different factors on the effectiveness of the processes of modernizing infrastructure and import substitution in VET organizations are defined. Differences in management strategies used by VET organizations to solve the problems of facilities and equipment (diversification of funding sources, cooperation with employers, import substitution planning, personnel training) are specified. A set of factors and management strategies to improve the efficiency of facilities and equipment modernization and import substitution processes have been defined. The pending problem areas of infrastructure management in VET organizations were identified.
Abstract
Sanctions and import substitution processes in Russian enterprises have changed not only the catalogue of equipment used but, in many cases, even technological processes. [...]
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DIGITAL «MATURITY ASSESSMENT»: APPROACHES, METHODOLOGIES, TOOLS
N. Tarasova, I. Pastukhova, A. Kazakov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 181

Abstract
Relevance. The general trends and consequences of digital transformation have touched all levels of the education system, manifested in the creation of a digital educational ecosystem, significant changes in the theory and practice of teaching and education, the introduction of electronic and network didactic means and tools, the formation of a digital culture of an educational organization, etc. Digital transformation does not mean a set of IT programs or software, but, first of all, it is a transformation of the educational process, manifested in an innovative format of teaching, education and learning, forming a new thinking and culture of the subjects of educational relations, taking into account digital transformations in the economy and society. The solution of the actual task of assessing the 'digital maturity' of organizations of various forms of ownership, spheres of production activity, including the level of higher education, will contribute to the development of a model for assessing the 'digital maturity' for the general education system. Object of the study: digital maturity assessment. Subject: approaches, methodologies, tools for digital maturity assessment. Objective: to identify and describe approaches, techniques, tools for assessing digital maturity. Objectives: to analyze the essence and meaning understanding of the category 'digital maturity'; assessment of 'digital maturity', to analyze the existing foreign and domestic methods and tools for assessing the level of 'digital maturity' of organizational systems. Methods: comparative analysis of the concept of "digital maturity"; bibliographic search; methods of systematization and generalization of data. Conclusions: there is no unity of scientific attribution of the concepts of "digital maturity"; assessment of "digital maturity"; the concept of "digital maturity" and its assessment systems in the Russian Federation are studied mainly only in the framework of higher education. In the case of general education, these problems are insufficiently represented in scientific research, as well as the number of empirical descriptions of practices of digital maturity assessment in general education schools is insignificant. In this regard, there is a need to analyze the approaches, methods and tools for comprehensive assessment of the digital maturity of organizational systems. The results of such work will serve as a source for designing profiles of digital maturity levels in the general education system. Recommendations: the assessment of the level of "digital maturity" should become a reference point not only and not so much for the transformation of the processes of functioning of the education system in the Russian Federation, but for the systemic renewal of the entire education sphere.
Abstract
Relevance. The general trends and consequences of digital transformation have touched all levels of the education system, manifested in the creation of a digital educational [...]
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Modern approaches to studying economic sanctions
K. Nesterova, A. Maigur, D. Sugaipov, A. Shumilov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 180

Abstract
The Russian economy has been operating under sanctions pressure in recent years. And there are risks of further strengthening of sanctions pressure both from the restriction of financial relations with the outside world and from the restriction of trade. The paper presents an overview of modern research devoted to the study of various types of economic sanctions. Despite the fact that the introduction of economic sanctions is most often motivated by political goals, the effectiveness of this tool in achieving these goals not always high. However, the economic consequences of sanctions are almost always they turn out to be significant.
Abstract
The Russian economy has been operating under sanctions pressure in recent years. And there are risks of further strengthening of sanctions pressure both from the restriction [...]
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CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF STABLE FORMS PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP IN THE SYSTEM OF SECONDARY VOCATIONAL EDUCATION
V. Blinov, A. Satdykov, S. Osadcheva, L. Kurteeva, Z. Dulaeva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 179

Abstract
The uneven socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation has a significant impact on the modernization of secondary vocational education and vocational training. There is a significant reduction in the number of graduates in the programs of training skilled workers in vocational education and training and the flow of this contingent into the vocational training sector. The number of SPO graduates who are employed in the received specialties and professions rarely reaches fifty percent. Labor migration of vocational graduates to more developed regions is steadily increasing. The amount of funding for vocational education programs depends on regional budgets, which leads to a significant territorial differentiation of investments in the human capital of students, as well as the material and technical base of educational organizations and their personnel. Fifty percent of the output of skilled worker training programs is concentrated within the 10 most sought-after professions. A similar situation develops in the training of mid-level specialists, where half of the graduates concentrate within 16 specialties. These and many other facts indicate a significant discrepancy between the results of personnel training in regional vocational education systems to the demands of labor markets, a decrease in the quality of education in vocational education, and the need to take targeted measures to improve the effectiveness of this level of vocational education as a source of staffing for the economies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the preprint is to present the results of the analysis of the conditions for the formation of sustainable forms of public-private partnership in the system of secondary vocational education. The results of the study can be applied in the formation of secondary vocational education and training programs based on digital technologies; the creation of systems of personnel support for vocational education and training, depending on the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation.
Abstract
The uneven socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation has a significant impact on the modernization of secondary vocational education and vocational [...]
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ANALYSIS OF PROMISING DIRECTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAEU INTEGRATION WITH CONSIDERING ITS EXISTING FOREIGN TRADE RELATIONS
V. Sedalishchev, V. Eremin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 178

Abstract
Over the past century, as one of the main trends in international trade, one should note the noticeable liberalization of trade throughout the world, this trend is still widely supported today in the activities of many economic associations, ranging from the activities of the WTO and the IMF to the activities of economic associations in within the framework of regional trade agreements, for example, the EAEU, the EU and others. Along with the trend towards globalization, there is a decrease in non-tariff barriers to trade in goods and services, and other obstacles to capital flows. The issue of countries taking part in integration processes is widely discussed and debatable, as the object of study is the economies of the EAEU countries, the EU and the economies of Russia's key trading partners. The purpose of the study is to assess the consequences (macroeconomic and sectoral) for the EAEU countries from the implementation by various countries of a number of provisions of agreements governing the functioning of potential integration associations that include the EAEU, and, based on the estimates obtained, to form a profile of foreign trade policy strategies for the EAEU countries, taking into account internal and external situations for choosing the optimal integration directions of the EAEU. The results of the study presented in this paper are as follows: Calculations based on data in the form of a global matrix of social accounts for 2019 showed that under any bilateral scenario of Russia's integration with the 16 listed on the EAEU site, Russia is unlikely to be able to achieve an increase of more than half a percent of GDP. At the same time, no significant industry risks are expected for it. As the country-by-country analysis of the games showed, with the simultaneous entry of several countries into the EAEU, there are no noticeable synergy effects and Russia's gains are approximately equal to the sum of the gains from agreements with each of the partners.
Abstract
Over the past century, as one of the main trends in international trade, one should note the noticeable liberalization of trade throughout the world, this trend is still widely [...]
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An algorithm for quickly finding long-term equilibria in models of overlapping generations
A. Zaytsev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 177

Abstract
In this paper, we consider the problem of finding long-term equilibria in models of overlapping generations with a large number of periods. It is often possible to reduce the solution of a model to finding the roots of a system of equations. Some OLG models, after the introduction of additional variables, can be reduced to the form of a system of polynomials. Thus, one can represent the set of long-term equilibria as algebraic diversity. This makes it possible to use computational methods from algebraic geometry in economic problems. In particular, the method using Grebner bases has become popular. However, this approach can be effectively applied only when there are few variables. We propose an algorithm for finding solutions to the system and use it to investigate the presence of a plurality of solutions in realistically calibrated models with long-lived agents.
Abstract
In this paper, we consider the problem of finding long-term equilibria in models of overlapping generations with a large number of periods. It is often possible to reduce the [...]
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Analysis of the relationship between inequality and environmental pollution
D. Sugaipov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 176

Abstract
The regions of the Russian Federation are characterized by a strong differentiation of both the level of income and the level of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, income inequality can both contribute to an increase in pollution levels and hinder its growth. In this regard, there are risks of increasing the amount of emissions into the environment when conducting inconsistent tax or social policies. The paper presents an overview of modern research devoted to the study of the impact of inequality on environmental pollution. It turns out that high levels of income inequality can have a positive impact on environmental pollution in developed countries and rich regions and a negative impact in developing countries and poor regions.
Abstract
The regions of the Russian Federation are characterized by a strong differentiation of both the level of income and the level of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere. [...]
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Modeling the impact of news shocks on the economy in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models
D. Sugaipov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 175

Abstract
This paper systematizes the experience of empirical research on news shocks, in particular on models of vector autoregressions, as well as dynamic stochastic models of general equilibrium. The review examines the work with various types of shocks, presents the main disadvantages of different classes of models used to analyze the impact of news shocks on developed and developing economies. The main prerequisites that need to be included in the DSGE are highlighted models so that these models can demonstrate a co-directional change the main macroeconomic indicators in response to the news shock. It has also been demonstrated that VAR models and DSGE models use many similar ideas – it is useful to include predictive indicators in each of these models. During the research it was found that the proportion of explained variation in works with DSGE models is very different from the proportion of explained variation in works with VAR models. A possible reason may be that VAR models are characterized by the problem of non-fundamentality.
Abstract
This paper systematizes the experience of empirical research on news shocks, in particular on models of vector autoregressions, as well as dynamic stochastic models of general [...]
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Autoregression model for the GDP of the Russian Federation, supplemented by the indicator of business activity of trading partner countries
L. Tadzhibaeva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 174

Abstract
The model proposed in this paper is a modification of the second-order autoregressive process with the addition of an external variable that allows taking into account the cycles of trading partners to predict output. This model has shown a significant advantage in forecasting for the long-term horizon, which confirms the importance of taking into account the economic activity of partner countries when forecasting the GDP of the Russian Federation.
Abstract
The model proposed in this paper is a modification of the second-order autoregressive process with the addition of an external variable that allows taking into account the [...]
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HUMAN CAPITAL CONCEPT AND MECHANISMS OF ITS INFLUENCE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
M. Kazakova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 173

Abstract
Economic science considers human capital as a fundamental factor that stimulates the accumulation of productive capital and, accordingly, has a positive effect on economic growth. Improving labor force quality can lead to an increase in the well-being of an individual due to an increase in his labor cost. An increase in public welfare will affect the economic growth of the state as a whole. The above conditions the relevance and timeliness of this work, aimed at illustration of human capital concept (subject of the study), as well as determination of human capital place in theoretical economic growth models and empirical mechanisms of its influence on growth. A review of theoretical works analyzing human capital concept and its relationship with economic growth rates aimed at achieving this goal. The study was conducted at the IPEI Center for the Study of Central Banking Problems as part of the RANEPA state task for 2022 using relevant academic literature and as the major source of information and methods such as descriptive, statistical, comparative analysis, as well as systematic approach. Analysis of human capital concept allows concluding that this indicator represents a set of innate and acquired through investment knowledge, skills and practical skills that determine labor productivity and future income of an employee. The mechanisms of human capital impact on economic growth include the relationship between growth and education level, the impact of human capital on technological progress, the relationship between health indicators and economic growth rates, the growth effect of public spending on education and health, and, finally, the effect of human capital in terms of poverty reduction. In the future, this review can serve as a starting point for an empirical study of investments in human capital in Russia within the framework of models with uncertainty and individual heterogeneous discounting.
Abstract
Economic science considers human capital as a fundamental factor that stimulates the accumulation of productive capital and, accordingly, has a positive effect on economic [...]
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Cointegration with time-varying parameters: literature review
E. Malikova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 172

Abstract
This paper reviews the literature devoted to the analysis of cointegrated time series in the economy, where the parameters of cointegration vary over time. The main studies that develop methods for modeling the movement of parameters, different approaches to evaluating the model, as well as tests for cointegration are considered. In addition, the areas of application of cointegration models with time-varying parameters in macroeconomic studies are highlighted.
Abstract
This paper reviews the literature devoted to the analysis of cointegrated time series in the economy, where the parameters of cointegration vary over time. The main studies [...]
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Robust Inference on Income Inequality: t-Statistic Based Approaches
R. Ibragimov, P. Kattuman, A. Skrobotov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 171

Abstract
Empirical analyses on income and wealth inequality and those in other fields in economics and finance often face the difficulty that the data is heterogeneous, heavy-tailed or correlated in some unknown fashion. The paper focuses on applications of the recently developed t-statistic based robust inference approaches in the analysis of inequality measures and their comparisons under the above problems. Following the approaches, in particular, a robust large sample test on equality of two parameters of interest (e.g., a test of equality of inequality measures in two regions or countries considered) is conducted as follows: The data in the two samples dealt with is partitioned into fixed numbers
Abstract
Empirical analyses on income and wealth inequality and those in other fields in economics and finance often face the difficulty that the data is heterogeneous, heavy-tailed [...]
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Opportunities and Constraints for G20 Leadership in Data Governance
M. Larionova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 170

Abstract
The working paper studies the approaches of the digital economy leaders (the US, the EU and China) to data governance and approaches they promote in international institutions. Data can generate not only profits for tech giants, but also social value. However, the market forces by themselves will not create data-based public goods. Government actions are needed at the county level and inter-state and multilateral institutions cooperation at the international level. The study is highly relevant, since to date despite numerous initiatives to establish coordination mechanisms and data regulation, cooperation on data governance is highly fragmented and gridlocked due to contradictions and tough competition between key players. One of the key disagreements is related to the regulation of cross-border data flows. The working paper aims to explore contradictions between the regulatory practices of the key actors in digital economy, the US, EU and China in the first place, and approaches they promote in international institutions (the WTO, G20, G7, OECD). In particular, the author looks into the G20 agenda on data governance and the Initiative on free data flow with trust, its challenges, and risks of cooperation stagnation. The working paper presents possible scenarios of future cooperation on data governance, their risks and perspectives, including the establishment of the Digital Economy and Data Governance Board by the G20, G7 initiative on shaping global digital order, deepening of cooperation on data governance within the G7 and the OECD, and the UNCTAD proposal on building a multilevel distributed polycentric data-governance model with the UN central role. The author concludes with a proposal on BRICS cooperation aimed at shaping inclusive multilateral data governance.
Abstract
The working paper studies the approaches of the digital economy leaders (the US, the EU and China) to data governance and approaches they promote in international institutions. [...]
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Trade policy priorities of the leading states in the context of post-COVID global economic recovery
A. Pakhomov, K. Bagdasaryan

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 169

Abstract
Due to the changes in the geo-economic situation at the beginning of 2022, the focus of this research is shifted from the general analysis of foreign trade strategies of foreign countries to the study of trade policies of key countries against Russia (including common approaches and sanctions), as well as the response of the Russian side. This approach determines the novelty and relevance of this study. The significance of the work is determined by the research in scientific and applied aspects of the problems of forming common priorities and tools in trade policy of the leading countries of the world, which depend on the global scientific and technological development. Trade policy is a purposeful activity of the state to promote and protect the interests of national business in global markets. The results of the study indicate attempts to create and consolidate new rules of the world economy based on the concept of energy transition and technological breakthrough, which has a negative impact on the established rules of the world economy and international trade.
Abstract
Due to the changes in the geo-economic situation at the beginning of 2022, the focus of this research is shifted from the general analysis of foreign trade strategies of foreign [...]
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FOOD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES OF RUSSIA AND THE USA: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
A. Nikulin, A. Kurakin, I. Trotsuk

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 168

Abstract
The relevance of the food superpower study is determined not only by the scientific interest of agrarian economics, sociology or history, but, primarily, by the tasks of agricultural policy, by the need in strategic and practical decisions of the subjects of public administration. The study aims at a comparative analysis of the food development strategies of Russia and the United States in the historical and contemporary perspectives. The subject is food-development and food-security strategies applied by Russia and the USA. Interdisciplinary and comparative methods are used to identify the key features of the food and agro-industrial development in two countries. Based on the results, the study presents not only environmental or technological factors in the formation of the agrarian strategies of the USA and the USSR, but also political and economic factors (American depression and Soviet collectivization; NeoNEP in the USSR and the New Deal in the USA). The paper concludes with a set of variables for the study of strategies for becoming a food superpower and for keeping this status: at the stage of becoming a food superpower – state policy to support agriculture, introduction of new technologies and methods of farming, development of consulting services, agricultural cooperation, wholesale markets and supply chains, social development of the village and information infrastructure, integration with world markets and expansion of food trade; at the stage of keeping and strengthening the status – the use of the newest technologies and agricultural practices, effective consulting services, expanding links with retail markets and international food trade, regional climate resilience. The novelty of the study is determined by the attempt to model a path for becoming a food superpower based on the comparative analysis of the US and Russia food strategies, and by testing of the hypothesis that there are two stages in the evolution of a food superpower. Based on the study of the real global leadership of Russia and the United States as wheat exporting countries and of the planned development of organic food production, the paper provides some recommendations on the possible ways for combining these two strategies and overcoming their limitations.
Abstract
The relevance of the food superpower study is determined not only by the scientific interest of agrarian economics, sociology or history, but, primarily, by the tasks of agricultural [...]
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Assessment of the impact of major infrastructure projects on the development of integration processes in the CIS countries
A. Knobel, Y. Zaytsev, K. Bagdasaryan, M. Baeva, N. Volovik, V. Sedalishchev, M. Kazaryan, D. Kuznetsov, D. Mirakyan

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 167

Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to fill a gap in academic and practical research on the effects of infrastructure projects on the economic development of countries. Since the economic development of countries may depend on the indicators of the sectoral development of neighboring regions: there is a need to answer the question of the significance of different initial levels and the further pace of economic development of countries on the effectiveness of their cooperation. As one of the main factors of spatial economic development, it is proposed to consider infrastructure, the development analysis of which is proposed to be compared with the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of countries, including international trade, the development of integration. This problem is of particular relevance for the CIS countries, where a large number of national, regional and international infrastructure projects are being implemented. Of particular interest in the study of the countries of the post-Soviet space are the so-called partially recognized republics. The situation around the Ukrainian crisis and the subsequent unprecedented sanctions against Russia adds relevance to the study of the problems of post-Soviet countries, their integration and the development of infrastructure projects. In the last ten years, there has been an increase in the activity of studying these problems, in connection with the development of the European neighborhood policy on the one hand and Eurasian integration on the other. The ambiguity of terminology in the field of infrastructure projects is noted. Among the researchers of the impact of infrastructure projects on economic development, one can single out, for example, O.Yu. Patrakeev, K.P. Glushchenko, I.V. Mitrofanov, as well as some authors studying infrastructure projects in China: S. Barizits, A. Radzyner, A. Gabuev, F. Jai, Y. Kaho, S. Chan, A. Garcia-Herrero; X. Jianwei and others.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to fill a gap in academic and practical research on the effects of infrastructure projects on the economic development [...]
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Comparative legal analysis of Green Finance market regulation in OECD countries and in Russia: present experience and harmonization challenges
A. Levashenko, I. Ermokhin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 166

Abstract
The paper analyzes the regulation of the green finance market in Russia and in the world, and also formulates proposals for the development of regulation in order to improve Russian mechanisms for sustainable (including green) development and harmonize the Russian approach to such regulation with international approaches. The relevance of the work lies in the need to develop regulation of the market for sustainable (including green) financing in Russia, taking into account the growth in the size of the global market, as well as the development of such regulation in foreign countries. The object of the research is the regulation of the market for sustainable (including green) financing in Russia and in the world. The purpose of the study is to formulate proposals for regulating the market for sustainable (including green) financing in Russia in order to improve Russian mechanisms for sustainable (including green) development and harmonize the Russian approach to such regulation with international approaches. Based on the study, the following results were obtained: an analysis was made of the approaches of foreign countries and international organizations in the field of regulation of green finance; an analysis of the regulation of green finance in Russia was carried out, inconsistencies between Russian practices of such regulation and international ones were identified. In addition, the risks that such a discrepancy creates were described; proposals for the development of market regulation in Russia were formed, taking into account the best international practices. The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of using its results for the development of regulatory legal acts aimed at developing the regulation of the market for sustainable (including green) financing in Russia.
Abstract
The paper analyzes the regulation of the green finance market in Russia and in the world, and also formulates proposals for the development of regulation in order to improve [...]
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Digital economy non-market components accounting methodology
A. Knobel, A. Abroskin, N. Abroskina, K. Bagdasaryan, Y. Zaytsev, V. Zyamalov, V. Sedalishchev, M. Turuntseva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 165

Abstract
An inclusion of non-market goods and services which are core to the digital economy in the system of economic circulation affects the basic socio-economic indicators both in Russian and in international practice. In this connection, the goal of this study is to develop a methodological basis for accounting and measuring non-market components in the emerging digital economy of the Russian Federation. As methods and methodology of the study, we use the provisions of the 2008 SNA methodological base relating to the accounting of new objects in the system of economic turnover; methods of forming input-output tables in the SNA application system; methods of transforming the indicators of the formation and use of resources into a system of indicators of symmetric input-output tables; methods of matrix calculations in building indicators of intersectoral relations, taking into account the digitalization processes of the Russian economy; methods of accounting the influence of price and hedonistic The main are: the development of a methodological framework for accounting for nonmarket components in the formation of a system of indicators of the digital economy; the development of methodological approaches to the valuation of non-market components in measuring the economic effects of digitalization; testing the proposed methodology for accounting and measuring non-market components in the digital economy based on Russian data, and developing recommendations for using the results in the formation and implementation of economic and industrial.
Abstract
An inclusion of non-market goods and services which are core to the digital economy in the system of economic circulation affects the basic socio-economic indicators both [...]
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DIVERSIFICATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AS A SOURCE OF SUSTAINABILITY OF INCOMES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS AND AND A PATHWAY TO DECREASE THE ECOLOGICAL EXTRENALITIES
A. Strokov, V. Potashnikov, A. Potapova, E. Shishkina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 164

Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to analyze the consequences of monocultures in crop production in the regions of Russia, not only from an economic point of view, but also from an environmental one. The objective of the study is to develop ways for the sustainable development of agriculture in Russia, taking into account the possibilities for the development of diversification and the possibility of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The subject of the presented research is the production and environmental indicators of crop production in the regions of Russia. In the course of the work, traditional scientific methods were used - descriptive, analytical, statistical and methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The sources of information were Russian and foreign scientific publications, official publications of regulatory and legal documents and statistical data of Russian state authorities, as well as foreign databases on agricultural statistics. The results of the study conclude that in the period 2011-2019, the increase in crop production took place mainly in the Central Black Earth and South-Western regions of the country, where the plowing of abandoned lands was accompanied by an increase in crop yields (intensification), which led to a relatively low carbon track per unit of output. On the contrary, in the regions of the Far East, where the plowing of the fallow has led to an increase in soybean crops (usually low-yielding), this has affected a higher carbon footprint, which cannot be considered a sustainable characteristic for further development. Thus, the scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of scientific and analytical tools for the correct identification of regional and global environmental risks in assessing the efficiency of crop production in the regions of Russia. Thus, in our study, regional risks were assessed through the concentration of crops in the region or through the diversification index (variety of cultivated crops). Global risks were assessed through the indicator of greenhouse gas emissions, which also allowed us to estimate the so-called cumulative "carbon footprint" of each region in terms of grain unit of crop production. As a result of the study, policy recommendations were developed to improve statistical reporting on the agricultural sector. It is also recommended to promote knowledge about new and old practices for introducing diversification, incl. and the classic method of growing legumes in crops, which is not being successfully implemented by all regions so far.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to analyze the consequences of monocultures in crop production in the regions of Russia, not only from an economic point [...]
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Beyond Bitcoin: A Taxonomy of Cryptocurrencies in a Historical Perspective
A. Zubarev, K. Shilov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 163

Abstract
The field of cryptocurrencies has been in existence and dynamically developing for over 14 years. Each year sees the advent of new cryptocurrencies, with their total count now exceeding 8,500, and it is evident that these differ from one another in some respects. However, there currently exists no exhaustive categorization of cryptocurrencies that could comprehensively describe the landscape of the cryptocurrency market. This situation underpins the relevance of the present study. The object of this study is cryptocurrencies. The aim of the research is to create a taxonomy of cryptocurrencies based on their primary characteristics and functions. The main method of research is a retrospective analysis of the development of the cryptocurrency sector from the creation of Bitcoin to the present day. Over the course of the industry's evolution, new projects emerged, substantially different in their properties from anything that had come before, thus forming entirely new categories and niches in the cryptocurrency space. Furthermore, the advent of certain types of cryptocurrencies could lead to changes in the existing classification. The outcome of this study is a hierarchical categorization (taxonomy) of interchangeable cryptocurrencies/tokens. The proposed taxonomy is supplemented by an in-depth examination of cryptocurrencies belonging to each category, as well as a consideration of the largest cryptocurrencies in terms of capitalization through its prism. The scientific novelty of this research lies in the absence of similar studies that look at the issue of categorizing cryptocurrencies through a historical lens.
Abstract
The field of cryptocurrencies has been in existence and dynamically developing for over 14 years. Each year sees the advent of new cryptocurrencies, with their total count [...]
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Return factors of Ether cryptocurrency: on chain metrics and DeFi
K. Shilov, A. Zubarev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 162

Abstract
In this study, we analyse whether such inner features of Ethereum blockchain as creation of smart contracts and decentralized applications influence in any way the price dynamics of Ethereum’s native cryptocurrency Ether or the latter can be mainly explained by the cryptocurrency market movements. Our results show that various on-chain metrics and total value locked in Ethereum’s DeFi protocols are almost insignificantly correlated with Ether returns on daily and weekly data. The corresponding regression models are also not able to explain a sufficient part of the variation of Ether returns relative to USD and BTC.
Abstract
In this study, we analyse whether such inner features of Ethereum blockchain as creation of smart contracts and decentralized applications influence in any way the price dynamics [...]
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THE IMPACT OF PROGRESSIVE TAXATION REFORMS ON DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: WHAT THE LITERATURE SAYS
M. Kazakova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 161

Abstract
The progressive tax system is a tax structure in which the tax rate increases as the taxpayer's income level increases. This means that people with higher incomes pay a larger percentage of their income in taxes than people with lower incomes. The relevance of this work is determined by the fact that currently the issues of reducing inequality and increasing economic growth remain on the agenda of both developed and developing countries, and for the latter the problem of reducing poverty remains acute. In turn, tax system reforms have an impact on the macroeconomic indicators listed above and, thus, can serve as a tool for regulating inequality and poverty, as well as a way to accelerate economic growth. The main purpose of the study is to systematize the results of empirical studies examining the impact of progressive taxation reforms on inequality, poverty and economic growth in countries with different levels of development (subject of the study). A review of academic literature (source of information) devoted to the analysis of the impact of progressive tax reforms on inequality, poverty and economic growth in developed and developing economies contributes to the achievement of the stated goal (research objectives). The study was conducted using such methods as descriptive, statistical and graphical analysis, data analysis, a systematic approach, and comparative analysis. According to the results of the study, it can be concluded that 1) progressive taxation reforms can play a significant role in reducing income inequality in developed countries by redistributing income and providing financing for social programs and services that benefit low-income households; 2) the impact of such reforms on economic growth in developed countries depends on the specific structure of the tax system. the system and the broader economic context in which reforms are being implemented; 3) the described reforms can potentially become an effective tool for poverty reduction in developing countries, but their success will depend on a number of factors, including the specific conditions of each country and the quality of governance and institutions; 4) the impact of progressive tax reforms on economic growth in developing countries is a complex issue that depends on various factors, and the actual impact it can vary greatly depending on the specific circumstances of the country under consideration (scientific novelty of the work). In this regard, a promising direction for future research on this issue is a review of the main approaches to modeling the impact of progressive taxation reforms on macro indicators in developed and developing countries. The results of the review can also be used to develop tax policy measures in the Russian Federation aimed at reducing inequality and increasing economic growth in the country.
Abstract
The progressive tax system is a tax structure in which the tax rate increases as the taxpayer's income level increases. This means that people with higher incomes pay [...]
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A LOOK AT INFLATION IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY THROUGH THE PRISM OF THE PHILLIPS CURVE
. A.Gorodnov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 160

Abstract
This paper is devoted to the estimation of the Phillips curve for small open economies with the inclusion of the expected change in the real exchange rate of the ruble. The nonlinear generalized method of moments (CUE GMM) is used as an estimation method. According to the estimates obtained, the dynamics of inflation in Russia depends on external factors, in particular on expectations about changes in the terms of trade. At the same time, the role of expectations in the formation of inflation has undergone several significant changes. The first change is associated with the transition to the inflation targeting regime, the second with the outbreak of the pandemic. In addition, the rigidity of prices was also subject to changes under the influence of these factors.
Abstract
This paper is devoted to the estimation of the Phillips curve for small open economies with the inclusion of the expected change in the real exchange rate of the ruble. The [...]
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ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OF MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
A. Vedev, A. Silchuk, K. Tuzov, M. Kovaleva, V. Eremkin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 159

Abstract
The relevance of the topic is related to the need to organize systems of macroeconomic analysis, as well as to improve the accuracy of forecasting in the Republic of Uzbekistan. In this regard, the development of a socio-economic development forecast for various scenarios that take into account risks and opportunities seems to be the most important task for the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The purpose of the study is to identify mechanisms and develop proposals for improving economic growth and investment attractiveness in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The subject of the study is the system of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting in the Republic of Uzbekistan in the medium term. The method or methodology of the study is based on the study of key current and retrospective data on the state of the sectors of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, highlighting the most important risks for building a medium-term forecast. As a result of the work carried out, the key components of the public sector, financial and credit markets were analyzed, and an assessment was made of the impact of the worsening external environment. Thus, the paper presents estimates of the prerequisites for the forecast and develops possible scenarios for the development of sectors of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of unique forecasts for the development of sectors of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The recommendations received as a result of the study indicate the need to develop mechanisms for responding to certain risks for the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, taking into account the possible consequences of such an impact presented in the forecast.
Abstract
The relevance of the topic is related to the need to organize systems of macroeconomic analysis, as well as to improve the accuracy of forecasting in the Republic of Uzbekistan. [...]
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ASSESSMENT OF THE PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIA TO ENTER THE PATH OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AFTER 2021: ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT RISKS AND DEVELOPMENT OF PROPOSALS FOR RISK MANAGEMENT
A. Vedev, A. Silchuk, K. Tuzov, M. Kovaleva, V. Eremkin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 158

Abstract
The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that the sharp changes in the sectors of the economy generated by the coronavirus pandemic have changed all existing development forecasts. At the same time, a number of new risks have emerged. In this regard, the development of a forecast for the development of economic sectors, taking into account risks and opportunities, seems to be the most important task for the Russian economy. The purpose of the study is to develop a forecast for key parameters of the socio-economic development of Russia, assess the risks of the forecast and develop tools for responding to risk situations, develop a forecast for the development of the financial sector in the Russian Federation in the medium term The subject of the study is the dynamics of the economic development of the Russian Federation in the medium term. The method or methodology of the study is based on the study of key current and retrospective data on the state of the sectors of the economy of the Russian Federation, highlighting the most important risks and building a medium-term forecast. Main research methods: economic observation, economic modeling, construction of economic hypotheses, historical analysis of economic phenomena, formalization and mathematization method, logical interpretation method, axiomatization method, analogy method As a result of the work carried out, the key components of the public sector, financial and credit markets were analyzed, and an assessment was made of the impact of the worsening external environment. Thus, the paper presents estimates of the prerequisites for the forecast and develops three possible scenarios for the development of sectors of the Russian economy. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of unique forecasts for the development of sectors of the Russian economy. The recommendations received as a result of the study indicate the need to develop mechanisms for responding to certain risks, taking into account the possible consequences of such an impact, presented in the forecast.
Abstract
The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that the sharp changes in the sectors of the economy generated by the coronavirus pandemic have changed all existing development [...]
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MODIFICATION OF MECHANISMS FOR REGULATING BANKING COMPETITION IN CONDITIONS OF FINANCIAL INSTABILITY
S. Zubov, A. Vedev, M. Kovaleva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 157

Abstract
The relevance of the study lies in the fact that credit institutions are actively involved in the process of transforming the financial market in the context of the digital transformation of the economy. The object of the study is commercial banks operating in the financial and banking services market. The subject of the study is the system of economic relations between participants in the financial and banking services market in a competitive environment. The purpose of the study is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the level of banking competition and its impact on the qualitative and quantitative indicators of the functioning of the national banking system. The research methodology includes methods of scientific abstraction, economic and statistical analysis, functional and structural analysis, a systematic approach, a comparison method, graphical and tabular techniques for visualizing statistical and other data, generalization and formalization. The project was carried out as part of the research work of the Structural Research Laboratory of the IAER RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation in 2022. Research results: development of the theoretical concept of banking competition, taking into account the changed external and internal conditions (digitalization of all spheres of life, transformation of the global financial architecture); study of the processes of banking competition in the Russian Federation and abroad, identification of the main markers of the dynamics of changes in the competitive environment in the context of growing development of ecosystems and banking marketplaces; determination of the main prospects for the transformation of the Russian banking system, analysis of risks associated with the practice of banking mergers and acquisitions. Research prospects: development of methodological tools for an integrated assessment of the level of banking competition in various segments of the financial market.
Abstract
The relevance of the study lies in the fact that credit institutions are actively involved in the process of transforming the financial market in the context of the digital [...]
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ANALYSIS OF THE READINESS OF BUSINESS, THE FINANCIAL SECTOR AND THE STATE TO INCREASE INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN THE POST-PANDEMIC PERIOD IN RUSSIA: KEY RISKS AND INCENTIVE MECHANISMS
O. Izryadnova, M. Kovaleva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 156

Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the urgent need to assess the potential conditions for the consolidation of public and private resources and the capabilities of the financial sector in the implementation of large-scale investment programs. The purpose of the study is to assess the ability and readiness of key economic agents and the financial system to increase investment activity in Russia. The subject of the study is the analysis of the main trends and features of the formation of investment resources by sources of financing and forms of ownership, characteristics of financial and material potential of investment and construction activities. The analysis of investment activity trends was carried out on the basis of methods of comparative analysis of official statistical data, review of strategic planning documents and regulatory and legislative framework. As a result of the study, general and specific features of investment activity in the period 2015-2021 were identified and systematized. Overcoming the consequences of crisis phenomena in the investment sphere is considered in the paradigm of changing the role and participation of the state, business, population and financial markets in resource mobilization and financing of investment projects. The analysis of trends in the formation of the material structure of investment resources allowed us to draw conclusions about the impact of imports of investment goods and determine the potential of domestic production in solving import substitution problems as a factor of innovation and technological modernization of the economy. The evaluation of the system of anti-crisis measures to support and finance investment projects allowed us to determine the potential for mobilizing budgetary and extra-budgetary sources and the distribution of risks between the state, private business and the population. The scientific novelty of the study consists in summarizing the current data on the state of the investment sphere, the practice of regulatory and organizational and managerial impact and assessing the financial sector's capabilities in consolidating resources. The recommendations based on the results of the study are related to the need to further improve the methods of state stimulation of investment activity and the development of tools for consolidating the resources of the public and private sectors, increasing the coherence of investment programs for industrial, technological, infrastructural and social development, reducing the risks of spatial and territorial differentiation and resource provision of investment programs.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the urgent need to assess the potential conditions for the consolidation of public and private resources and the capabilities of [...]
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Exchange rate shocks and foreign trade of Russian manufacturers
D. Kuznetsov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 155

Abstract
The goal of this paper is to empirically assess the impact of exchange rate shocks on prices and quantities of Russian exports and imports. The relevance of the work is dictated by the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022, which can complicate international payments in the dominant currencies in international trade, and by subsequent economic policy measures aimed at reducing the role of the dollar and the euro in Russian foreign trade. Modern studies consider the currency of the contract as one of the most important factors influencing the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through effect on prices and quantities of exports and imports. The main assumption of such models – short-term price rigidity in terms of contract currency – matches the behavior of real data. These models also predict the dependence of the pass-through effect on the firm's share of the product-country market. In this paper, based on econometric analysis of detailed data from customs statistics of the Russian Federation, it is shown that the key to the dynamics of exports and imports is not bilateral exporter-importer rates, but exporter and importer rates to the dominant currencies in world trade (US dollar and euro), and prices are rigid in the contract currency. Because of the asymmetry in the response between importer currency shocks and exporter currency shocks to the contract currency, there is a statistically and economically significant effect of a uniform appreciation of the dominant currency. This means that Russia's foreign trade prices and quantities respond to the dynamics of the contract currency even if neither the exporter nor the importer is a country issuing the contract currency. This response persists in the long run, and therefore cannot be explained solely by short-term price rigidity. The pass-through effect depends on the value of exports and imports, which is consistent with the predictions of the theory. The main conclusion of the paper is that diversification of the currency structure of foreign trade contract payments will contribute to the sustainability of Russian foreign trade, but the question of the costs of such a transition remains beyond the scope of this study.
Abstract
The goal of this paper is to empirically assess the impact of exchange rate shocks on prices and quantities of Russian exports and imports. The relevance of the work is dictated [...]
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DIRECTIONS OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGIONS OF THE RUSSIAN RURAL PERIPHERY
A. Nikulin, T. Gusakov, I. Trotsuk

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 154

Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that in recent decades, peripheralization of rural spaces in Russia has intensified in the form of the expansion of abandoned agricultural lands, disappearance of rural settlements, and a general long-term social-demographic depression. Concerning the spatial and food security of Russia, the re-development of peripheral rural territories is the most important condition for the viability and sustainable development of the country. The study aims at presenting a typology of models of rural development and rural differentiation in the peripheral territories of Russia as based on regional resources and the potential of local territories – in order to integrate them into the all-Russian programs of rural development. The subject is specific Russian cases of the development of rural peripheral territories and general trends in the revival of the depressed rural periphery. The methods combine the elements of the quantitative (statistical data, secondary analysis) and qualitative (expert semi-formalized interviews) approaches within the case study. Based on the results of the study, the paper describes the latest trends in the peripheralization of even the old-developed Russian regions, i.e., measures for the centralization of spatial development often exacerbate the depth of peripherization. The paper concludes with the main indicators of the rural periphery viability (ability to cope with systemic shocks and uncertainty, ability to radically change the trajectory of one’s development) and the features of the sustainable peripheral rural system. The novelty of the study is determined by an attempt to develop a typology of rural periphery and by a systematic analysis of its problems within both the agrarian re-development strategies and projects of ecological-recreational and cultural-historical types. The paper provides some recommendations on the development of rural periphery: more diverse economic activities of rural residents; more market-oriented institutions to ensure a transition from informal economic interactions to the formalized ones; stronger social capital in order to more easily mobilize internal and external resources.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that in recent decades, peripheralization of rural spaces in Russia has intensified in the form of the expansion of abandoned [...]
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Analysis of trends in legal regulation of employment on online platforms in the world and in Russia
A. Levashenko, M. Girich

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 153

Abstract
The subject of the study is the analysis of legal relations arising in connection with employment on online platforms, including the provision of minimum labor guarantees by the platforms, regulation of self-employment, taxation, social insurance, cab platforms and courier services. The relevance of the study stems from the fact that a number of countries, including Russia, are trying to develop approaches to regulate the application of labor law, taxation and social insurance to persons providing services or work through platforms. In addition, there are various aspects of the regulation of employment on platforms in certain sectors of platform work, in particular in the provision of cab services and courier delivery. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that the work solves the problem of creating in Russia an effective system of regulating the status of persons working through online platforms, employment on online platforms, taking into account the standards of international organizations. The purpose of the study is to formulate proposals for the extension of minimum labor guarantees (the right to work safety, to guaranteed wages not lower than the minimum wage, the right to protection against unemployment, the right to rest, etc.) to persons providing services or work through platforms, as well as to determine the criteria for the existence of labor relations with such persons, the possibility of recording the labor (insurance period) of self-employed working through platforms, social insurance and taxation, regulation of cab and courier platforms activities etc. The methodology of the study is based on the application of methods of logical, systematic and comparative analysis using Russian and foreign normative legal acts, analytical materials of competent authors and international organizations. As a result of the study proposals for the development of the regulation of employment on online platforms, as well as the status of persons employed on the platforms, based on the analysis of OECD standards and the legislation of member countries and partners of the Organization are formulated. In order to achieve the goal the following tasks are planned: analysis of the standards of the OECD and other international organizations on the regulation of the status of persons working through platforms and platform employment on the application of labor law, tax law, social insurance law, on the regulation of cab and courier services, on the formation of statistics; analysis of the experience of the OECD member states in regulating the status of persons working through platforms and platform employment; analysis of legal problems in Russia related to the regulation of the status of platform workers and platform employment; the formation of proposals for the development of legal regulation of the status of persons working through platforms and platform employment in Russia, including in terms of the adoption of response measures that affect the development of online employment. The results of the study were the development of proposals for Russia on the development of guarantees for persons employed on online platforms in terms of providing some rights similar to labor, the development of taxation and social insurance, statistical records of platform employment, providing guarantees in certain industries (cab services and courier services). The perspective of the study lies in the need to improve the Russian legislation in terms of protecting the rights of persons employed on platforms, which enter into a relationship with the platform, similar to labor.
Abstract
The subject of the study is the analysis of legal relations arising in connection with employment on online platforms, including the provision of minimum labor guarantees [...]
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DETERMINATION OF THE NATURE OF THE CYCLICAL FISCAL POLICY OF DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
I. Sokolov, S. Belev, T. Tischenko, E. Leonov, K. Vekerle, E. Matveev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 152

Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the fact that, caused by the coronavirus pandemic of 2020, it put on the agenda issues about choosing the best methods to support businesses and citizens. However, the choice, evaluation, and practical choice of steps faces with the still existing lack of elaboration of the methodological aspects of performance evaluation. Both instruments (tax expenditures and direct expenditures) have their own advantages and implementation, their application should be directly linked to the goal. The subject The subject of the study is the list and mechanisms for the formation of tax expenditures used as part of support measures. The aim of the study is to determine how to use the methodological approaches accumulated in the scientific literature and international experience to the definition and assessment of tax expenses, as well as their accounting and management. When forming the work, such methods as reasoned-critical analysis, hypothetical-deductive method, case methods, method of analysis of generalizations and extrapolation (interpolation) of results were used. The study used data from the Federal Treasury, Rosstat and the Ministry of Finance of Russia and GTED Database. The scientific novelty of the study consists in the use of new data to analyze the structure of tax expenditures and compare the methodologies of different countries. The result of the work was a report containing: 1. Generalization of methodological approaches to the definition and evaluation of tax expenditures in scientific research 2. Analysis of international experience in accounting and management of tax expenditures 3. Analysis of the Russian practice of granting tax expenditures 4. Evaluation of the effect of the introduction of the fiscal rule on the nature of the cyclicality of fiscal policy in developed and developing countries 5. Description of opportunities for optimizing tax expenditures in the Russian Federation. The results obtained allowed us to conclude that the Russian tax system is replete with too many deviations from the standard rules, which produce a significant amount of tax expenditures by world standards. In addition, the stated goals of preferences do not fully correspond to the distribution of tax expenditures by type of tax. Part of the tax expenditure generated under indirect taxes is implicitly intended as a tool to stimulate business and investment. This creates an opaque system for distributing preferences and comparing their volume (imputed subsidy) with the result. In turn, this contributes to the strengthening of the effect of fiscal illusion. In the future, the authors plan to continue the study of the effectiveness of tax expenditures in Russia and the world.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the fact that, caused by the coronavirus pandemic of 2020, it put on the agenda issues about choosing the best methods to support businesses [...]
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DEBT SUSTAINABILITY AT THE SUBNATIONAL LEVEL IN RUSSIA: THEORY, SITUATION, RECOMMENDATIONS
V. Klimanov, E. Timushev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 151

Abstract
The relevance of the analysis of debt sustainability is explained by the need to preserve the state's borrowing capacity under the increasing risk of non-fulfillment of debt obligations. A decrease in the borrowing potential during the economic downturn reduces the overall potential of countercyclical fiscal policy. The purpose of the study is to develop recommendations to regional public authorities on the implementation of a balanced debt policy based on a comprehensive analysis of the implementation of debt policy in Russia and countries of the world at the subnational level and to identify the causes, opportunities and limitations of regional loans. The object of the study is the subnational units of countries of the world and their budget and debt policy. The hypothesis of the study was that intergovernmental transfers, but not debt, are the main tool for overcoming negative crisis phenomena at the regional level. According to the results obtained, budget loans, being initially an instrument of debt policy, in fact, has become a new type of intergovernmental transfers. An additional problem is that this creates increased uncertainty for fiscal policy at the regional level. Debt instruments are increasingly becoming the mechanism of intergovernmental relations that reduces the efficiency of the functioning of the budget system as a whole. The novelty of the study consists in detecting significant risks of loss of debt sustainability at the regional level of Russia, despite the low nominal size of the state debt of the regions and measures undertaken at the federal level. The presentation of the theoretical foundations and the conducted diagnostic of regional public finance system allowed us to formulate measures towards further improvement of the measures of the federal policy of regulating the debt sustainability of the regions. Research methodology: review of analytical materials, structural and substantive analysis of regulatory legal acts at the federal and regional levels of countries of the world, comparative analysis of international debt policy experience, systematization of debt policy instruments used in Russia and abroad, development of scientific and practical recommendations.
Abstract
The relevance of the analysis of debt sustainability is explained by the need to preserve the state's borrowing capacity under the increasing risk of non-fulfillment of [...]
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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRICE DYNAMICS IN THE ONLINE SEGMENT AND STANDARD PRICE INDICATORS
M. Kazakova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 150

Abstract
The development of e-commerce in the context of digitalization of the economy contributes to the introduction and expansion of opportunities for the use of new macro and microeconomic indicators based on big data to study inflationary processes. The relevance of this work is determined by the fact that due to their availability and high frequency online prices of multi-channel retailers can be a more representative source of information for measuring and forecasting inflation levels than traditional data. Price indices based on online data made it possible to track price dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic in real time. The main purpose of the study is to systematize the results of empirical work on the use of online trading data to analyze the features of inflationary processes (subject of the study). In addition, the work is aimed at exploring the possibilities of using online data and online price indices to predict offline prices. The achievement of the stated goal is facilitated by a review of academic literature devoted to the use of online price data for constructing high-frequency online indicators, measuring and forecasting the inflation rate, analyzing price dynamics in the online segment and comparing the rigidity of online prices and prices in traditional retail (tasks of research). The study was conducted using relevant academic literature and as the major source of information and methods such as descriptive, statistical, graphical analysis, a systematic approach, and comparative analysis. Based on the results of the study of the empirical experience of using online price data, it can be concluded that at present, online trade data are intensively used by foreign statistical agencies to build high-frequency price indices and can serve as a representative source of information about the level of inflation. Nevertheless, the review revealed that the official CPI was not replicated completely in any of the existing studies due to the high complexity of data collection and maintaining the database in working order (scientific novelty of the work). In this regard, the prospects for further research of the problem are presented in the maximum possible elimination of this shortcoming based on the previous world experience in the use of online price data and high frequency online indicators. The results of the review can be used in the interests of the monetary authorities of the Russian Federation to build forecast models of inflation, considering high-frequency online data on prices.
Abstract
The development of e-commerce in the context of digitalization of the economy contributes to the introduction and expansion of opportunities for the use of new macro and microeconomic [...]
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THE IMPACT OF THE RUBLE EXCHANGE RATE ON PRICES AND VOLUMES OF RUSSIAN IMPORTS FROM THE EU
A. Firanchuk

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 149

Abstract
The paper analyzes the impact of the ruble exchange rate on Russian imports from the EU27. The theoretical model considers exporters with elastic output and incompletely free redistribution of outputs between destination markets. The model predicts that an appreciation (depreciation) of the ruble exchange rate leads to an increase (decrease) in volumes, and the adjustment degree decreases as a destination market’s share in the firm's total exports increases. The degree of prices (in euros) adjustment to exchange rate changes, on the contrary, increases as the share of a destination market increases. The empirical results based on Eurostat data for 2005-21 are consistent with these hypotheses. The extensive component of import reaction is considered separately. I show the ruble depreciation reduces the probability of new companies entering the market and increases the probability of existing suppliers exit the market. At the same time, the probability of a firm's exit increases stronger when the share of the Russian market in the firm's total output decreases.
Abstract
The paper analyzes the impact of the ruble exchange rate on Russian imports from the EU27. The theoretical model considers exporters with elastic output and incompletely free [...]
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ANALYSIS OF THE FEASIBILITY OF INTRODUCING VOLUNTARY REGISTRATION OF FOREIGN SUPPLIERS USING THE VAT OFFICE WHEN CARRYING OUT ACTIVITIES IN RUSSIA: INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE
E. Chernyakova, G. Korolev, E. Yastrebova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 148

Abstract
By the "Main Directions of the Budget, Tax, and Customs Tariff Policy for 2021 and the planning period of 2022 and 2023", voluntary registration for foreign suppliers using the VAT office when carrying out any type of activity (sales to Russian buyers) is stated as part of the topical issues of taxation in the future. This issue was proposed by the business community and should be considered by the Government of the Russian Federation soon. In Appendix 2 (Tax Policy Measures by Types of Taxes) of the “Main Directions of the Budgetary, Tax, and Customs Tariff Policy for 2022 and the Planning Period of 2023 and 2024”, paragraph 5 of the subsection “Value Added Tax” is also devoted to the issue of changing the procedure for determining places of sale of works (services) for VAT purposes and voluntary registration for foreign suppliers using a VAT office, which states that a foreign supplier of works (services) will be able to pay VAT independently in the event of voluntary tax registration in the Russian Federation Federation. Thus, the relevance of the research topic was indicated in the Main Directions for two years in a row, in 2021 and 2022. The geopolitical changes taking place today only increase the relevance of this study, the purpose of which is to free from the formal barriers of the system of registration for VAT purposes of foreign companies providing electronic services to recipients in Russia, to attract as many foreign companies to taxation in the Russian Federation. The implementation of the results of this work can make the conditions for the work of foreign companies in Russia more attractive. The main tasks to be solved within the framework of the study are: to analyze the foreign experience of paying VAT by foreign companies with an emphasis on the voluntariness of registration and online interaction with tax authorities and; to analyze the current tax legislation of Russia in terms of paying VAT by foreign companies, including the issue of applying the institution of tax agents; prepare proposals for improving the tax legislation in Russia, including amendments to certain articles of Chapter 21 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation. The subject of the study is the procedure for indirect taxation of foreign companies in Russia using the VAT office. The method or methodology of research is a combination of general scientific and special methods of cognition, namely, system analysis, the method of analogy, the general logical method of generalization, comparative legal, structural, and functional analysis. The sources of information are research materials of Russian and foreign scientists, legislative bases, websites of tax authorities of the countries of the world, mass media, and other sources. The main applied result of the research is the answer to the question of the advisability or not of the introduction of voluntary registration of foreign suppliers using the VAT office in the implementation of activities in Russia (sales to Russian buyers), which is specified in the "Guidelines for the budget, tax, and customs tariff policy for 2021 and the planning period of 2022 and 2023" (Guidelines). In addition to the above main applied result, the applied results of the study will be proposals for improving the payment of VAT in Russia by foreign companies. The scientific novelty of the main applied result is due to the novelty of the question itself about the advisability of introducing voluntary registration within the framework of the Guidelines. The scientific novelty of other applied results is due to the analysis of the current tax legislation of Russia, and foreign experience, on the topic of the study for 2021, and 2022, initiatives in 2023. As a result of the analysis of foreign experience, the following conclusions were drawn in the world, voluntary registration for the purpose of paying VAT of foreign suppliers, and not always through personal accounts or special services similar to the VAT office on the websites of tax services. Voluntary registration is not limited to e-services, but also, for example, includes low-value goods. As a recommendation, it seems appropriate to allow voluntary registration for VAT purposes for foreign companies in Russia. In the future, this work can become a starting point for studying the issues of changing approaches to taxation, and administration of income of foreign companies in Russia, including direct taxation.
Abstract
By the "Main Directions of the Budget, Tax, and Customs Tariff Policy for 2021 and the planning period of 2022 and 2023", voluntary registration for foreign suppliers [...]
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ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO DETERMINING THE TARGET LEVEL OF INFLATION IN RUSSIA
Y. Perevyshin, S. Drobyshevsky, P. Trunin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 147

Abstract
The paper examines the property of the core inflation indicator to predict future values of headline inflation, which is a critical task in preparing a medium-term inflation forecast to support decision-making on monetary policy. To test this property (on the example of the core inflation by Rosstat and inflation excluding fruits and vegetables, gasoline and housing and communal services), two approaches were applied. The first approach projected headline inflation based on actual core inflation and the historical relationship between these indicators, and then projected headline inflation based on actual headline inflation. The accuracy of the two headline inflation forecasts was then compared. As a result, it turned out that core inflation indicators, starting from 2011, better predict headline inflation than current headline inflation values over a horizon of up to a year. The second approach answer the question of whether the accuracy of the headline inflation forecast is improved if the core inflation forecast is used instead. To do this, within a certain class of models, a core inflation forecast was built, which was used as a headline inflation forecast, then its accuracy was compared with a forecast based on the same class of models estimated for headline inflation. As a result, it turned out that in the framework of VAR, MA(1) and ARIMA models, the use of a core inflation forecast instead of a headline inflation forecast increases the accuracy. We estimate VAR model and decompose core inflation by factors (output gap, ruble exchange rate, and monetary policy rate). It helps us to estimate the magnitude of the price shock in the 1st quarter of 2022 in Russian economy, which amounted to 6.2 p.p. Our inflation forecast based on the VAR model assumes its acceleration from 1.6% q/q SAAR in the 4th quarter of 2022 to 4.1% in the 1st quarter and 6.0% in the 2nd quarter of 2023, then it followed by stabilization at 7% QoQ SAAR by the end of 2023.
Abstract
The paper examines the property of the core inflation indicator to predict future values of headline inflation, which is a critical task in preparing a medium-term inflation [...]
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ANALYSIS ON MONETARY POLICY COORDINATION IN EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION
E. Dobronravova, S. Kolesnik, M. Orekhov, M. Chembulatova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 146

Abstract
In this paper we the synchronization of monetary policy in Eurasian Economic Union. The relevance of the study arises from two points: first, independent monetary policy may be a flexible tool of economic stabilization, so is important for countries; second, fluctuations of Russian economy and global shocks affect all the economies of EAEU, so their monetary policy depends on global and Russian interest rates anyway. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the reaction of EAEU central banks to individual, regional and global shocks. For the empirical model we use monthly data on EAEU key macroeconomic indicators from 2013 to 2021, the basic methods are general method of moments, error correction models and global vector autoregressions. Our results show that the reaction of EAEU countries’ macroeconomic variables to global shocks is by large the same, and spillovers from Russian economy play the key role. We conclude that despite heterogenous production structure, level of capital mobility and financial development the key trends in monetary policy depend on Russian inflation and financial cycle. But the future results will depend on the prospect of trade and financial integration in EAEU under external restrictions. The study can be extended with detailed analysis of capital mobility in EAEU transmission by financial channels.
Abstract
In this paper we the synchronization of monetary policy in Eurasian Economic Union. The relevance of the study arises from two points: first, independent monetary policy may [...]
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STATE SECTOR: ASSESSMENT CHALLENGES AND PERFORMANCE CRITERIA
A. Abramov, A. Pershin, A. Radygin, M. Chernova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 145

Abstract
The purpose of this study is to assess and compare the scale of the state sector in Russia, as well as the impact of the state ownership on the effectiveness of companies in Russia and BRICS countries. The study focuses on the major public companies, including state-ownership enterprises (SOEs). The methodology is based on the classification of the largest private and state-owned public companies, evaluation of SOEs’ contribution to key economic and financial indicators, regression analysis of the impact of state ownership on the financial performance. The state sector growth together with the unstable growth and volatile stock markets has been the trend in many economies since the crises of the last 20 years. The role of the state in corporate governance also increased. However, research on the performance of SOEs has become scarce, with virtually no reports from international financial organizations on the subject in the past few years. The issue of cross-country comparisons of the state role in the economy remains unsolved even thought it is of great theoretical importance in the discussions on models of state capitalism and development of methodology of state sector analysis, and is relevant for the management decisions in long-term strategies of socioeconomic development. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that the authors, using their own methods, collected and updated until 2021 indicators of the scale of the state sector, identified issues of assessment of the state sector, and used a unique database of companies from BRICS countries to study the performance of SOEs. The main results are the development of methodological approaches to the assessment of the state sector, updated state sector scale measures up to 2021, which show a continuing trend of growth. The authors have also shown how ambiguous are the existing solutions to measuring the size of the state sector and how large is the gap in estimates. The paper also shows that the state ownership had predominantly negative effect on companies’ performance in BRICS countries and South Korea. The main conclusion of the work is that it is necessary to develop a methodology that allows for an integrated assessment of government intervention on the economy, and to upgrade existing databases to increase corporate information transparency, both private and SOEs. This is especially important for the Russian economy, given the trend towards state sector growth. Such measures will improve the accuracy of state sector research and allow to improve the pace of economic recovery and ongoing monitoring.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to assess and compare the scale of the state sector in Russia, as well as the impact of the state ownership on the effectiveness of companies [...]
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ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE APPLICATION OF ANTICRISIS BUDGET POLICY MEASURES IN RELATION TO THE SUBNATIONAL LEVEL
N. Barbashova, A. Deryugin, A. Komarnitskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 144

Abstract
The research analyzes the practice of anticrisis support of the subnational level in foreign countries and Russia. The influence of the anticrisis budget policy of the federal center on the balance and sustainability of regional budgets in Russia is assessed. The features of the effectiveness of intergovernmental transfers and budget loans to sub-federal budgets are revealed. It is recommended to take into account the results obtained in the anticrisis support of the regions, as well as to introduce mechanisms that increase the flexibility of federal budget rules to the parameters of subnational finances.
Abstract
The research analyzes the practice of anticrisis support of the subnational level in foreign countries and Russia. The influence of the anticrisis budget policy of the federal [...]
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Prospects for improving the efficiency of the system of social contracts in the Russian Federation
A. Abroskin, N. Abroskina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 143

Abstract
The subject area of the research is issues related to improving the effectiveness of the System of Government Social Assistance on the basis of the Social Contract (GSA SC). The purpose of the research is to construct proposals for development of the GSA SC based on its transformation into an activation-type program with a dominance of activities aimed at stimulating the participation of low-income households in labor activity. The relevance of the research topic is determined by the need to improve the effectiveness of the current system of the Social Contracts in the Russian Federation, improve the methodology used to measure its effectiveness and increase the informativeness of the estimates being developed. The scientific novelty of the research connects with the new approaches developed within the research frameworks to measure the GSA SC economic effects at the households sector level. The methodology and methodological approaches implemented within the research framework were based on taking into account the impact of the GSA SC activities on the development of the household sector economy, in which dynamics measuring a system of indicators developed in the national accounting statistics is used. The main results of the research include: assessments of the GSA SC system current state and the problems of its insufficient effectiveness identified in the analysis; proposals for GSA SC development as an activation type program; the proposed approaches to the construction of estimates for the impact of GSA SC activation version on the basic indicators of the household sector; estimates of GSA SC economic effects. Conclusions and recommendations. In its current form GSA SC only in certain areas is focused on achieving the main goals of the social contract systems - getting out of poverty and forming permanent sources of income. In a number of areas, GSA SC duplicates the activities provided within the other programs of social assistance to the population. Prospects for improving the GSA SC efficiency in the Russian Federation are associated with its transformation into an activation-type program with economic effects provided when the poor are included in production activities.
Abstract
The subject area of the research is issues related to improving the effectiveness of the System of Government Social Assistance on the basis of the Social Contract (GSA SC). [...]
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VET STAFFING MODELS DEPENDING ON THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION’S REGIONS
V. Blinov, A. Satdykov, E. Esenina, Z. Dulaeva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 142

Abstract
Professional and teaching personnel training and the staffing of the secondary vocational education (SVE) system is one of the most important tasks both in the Russian education state policy and in scientific research. The problem of the SVE digital transformation and building the corresponding teachers’ competencies, the legislative requirements for educational activities, the new requirements for SVE teachers in the framework of the federal project "Professionality" are tasks that require balanced decisions at the federal and regional levels. Significant events of the last three years (the COVID-19 pandemic, global economic crisis, challenging foreign policy situation) result in the need to focus on updating the SVE teaching staff competencies. Equally pressing are the “eternal” problems, including the aging of teaching staff and the predominance of female teachers in the secondary vocational education system, ways to rejuvenate teaching staff in the SVE institutions and ways to obtain pedagogical qualifications in secondary vocational education, ensuring targeting and personalization of the teachers’ educational trajectories through additional professional education. The purpose of the preprint is to present the analysis of staffing models for the secondary vocational education system, taking into account domestic and foreign approaches, and to develop proposals for building a perspective model for staffing the secondary vocational education system. The study is based on the methodology of system analysis, uses the methods of comparative analysis, systematization and generalization of scientific literature and educational practice, the modeling method. As a result of the study, the characteristics of the staffing models of the vocational education system were presented based on the analysis of foreign and domestic experience in building and developing staffing requirements for the vocational education and training system. The novelty is connected to the development of proposals for building a future-oriented model of secondary vocational education system staffing. The results of the study can be applied in making decisions on the formation and development of staffing system for secondary vocational education at the federal and regional levels.
Abstract
Professional and teaching personnel training and the staffing of the secondary vocational education (SVE) system is one of the most important tasks both in the Russian education [...]
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THE WAGE OF STEM PROFESSIONALS IN RUSSIA: THE IMPORTANCE OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
A. Putintseva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 141

Abstract
In the age of digital transformation, there is an increasing discussion about human resource shortages. In particular, IT professionals, in general, specialists in science and technology (STEM - Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics). One of the decisive factors in attracting and retaining highly qualified employees is the level of remuneration, so it is important to understand what the determinants of its level in Russia are. Thus, our research answers the question: what factors influence the compensation of STEM professionals in Russia? The influence of human capital (special experience and availability of higher education) and institutional factors (organization size, economic sector, organization profile) were considered. The data of the National Research University Higher School of Economics Russian Monitoring of Economic Situation and Health for 2010-2020 were used for the analysis. The results show that the level of financial compensation increases when a STEM specialist has higher education, works in a large and commercial organization. Work experience has no effect on compensation. The profile of the organization (technical or not) also did not show an unambiguous result in this study.
Abstract
In the age of digital transformation, there is an increasing discussion about human resource shortages. In particular, IT professionals, in general, specialists in science [...]
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Cross-border migration in the era of the pandemic: analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the processes of geographical mobility
V. Malakhov, M. Simon, D. Letnyakov, A. Motin, N. Kokoeva, I. Semenov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 139

Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about dramatic changes in all areas of public life, both at the country and global levels. In a situation of disorientation in which national governments found themselves in the spring of 2020, unprecedented measures were taken to close state borders, which led to a cessation or a sharp reduction in migration inflows. However, it soon became clear that the dependence of a number of sectors of the economy on migrant labor is so significant that it requires a significant mitigation/removal of the imposed restrictions. Thus, management structures are facing a serious challenge, namely the need to choose a course in migration policy that reflects a reasonable balance between the imperatives of socio-economic development and the imperatives of security in the health sector.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about dramatic changes in all areas of public life, both at the country and global levels. In a situation of disorientation in which national [...]
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Migrant communities in Western European countries and in Russia: social demands and structural constraints
V. Malakhov, M. Simon, D. Letnyakov, A. Motin, S. Goryashko, A. Dubrovsky, A. Karulin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 140

Abstract
The study of communities formed by migrants is crucial for understanding the political communication in industrialized countries. There are three circumstances that actualize such a study. First, in countries with a long history of immigration, institutions of public representation of migrants have been developed to ensure the participation of the latter in the political life of the host societies. Secondly, migrants can form associations at the grassroots level to find common solutions without direct interaction with government institutions. Thirdly, migrants are often involved in the social and political life of the country of origin, as they maintain contact with organizations operating in their homeland. This connection is facilitated and intensified due to various online platforms. This paper provides an overview of current research on this topic, made in Western European countries, as well as the results of our own field research conducted in several Russian cities.
Abstract
The study of communities formed by migrants is crucial for understanding the political communication in industrialized countries. There are three circumstances that actualize [...]
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CONSUMPTION, LEISURE, SOCIAL INTERACTIONS: THE WAY OF LIFE OF RUSSIANS IN CONDITIONS OF INSTABILITY
D. Loginov, V. Titov, A. Salmina, M. Eliseeva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 138

Abstract
The aim of the study is to identify the features of lifestyle and social practices in the spheres of consumption, leisure and social interactions, implemented by various groups of the population in conditions of instability. Informational base of the study is questionnaire surveys, held in 2021-2022, each of which was conducted based on all over Russia representative sample. The review of theoretical and conceptual developments allowed to classify main approaches to understanding of lifestyle in social sciences. The analysis of empirical data produced the opportunity to examine online consumption practices settled in the post pandemic period and specifics of consumption in conditions of new 2022 risks. Models and limitations of implementing leisure practices were studied. There were studied the specifics of social interactions system including in the context of its resource significance from the point of view of adaptational tasks.
Abstract
The aim of the study is to identify the features of lifestyle and social practices in the spheres of consumption, leisure and social interactions, implemented by various groups [...]
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MEASUREMENT AND EVALUATION APPROACHES CHARACTERISTICS OF LOCAL LABOR MARKETS IN RUSSIA BASED ON MICRODATA
P. Pavlov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 137

Abstract
The aim of the work is to test approaches to the analysis of the characteristics of local labor markets in Russia using big micro-level data. The first chapter deals with modern theoretical and empirical approaches to the study of local labor markets, the concept of market power and concentration of the labor market. The second chapter presents a model of the connection between the market power of employers and the wages of employees, and formulates the theoretical hypotheses of the study. The third chapter reveals approaches to the development of a database on local labor markets, highlights patterns that are characteristic of the Russian labor market. The fourth chapter provides an empirical analysis of the influence of the characteristics of Russian local labor markets on the level of wages of workers. The fifth chapter summarizes the results and formulates recommendations based on the results of the study.
Abstract
The aim of the work is to test approaches to the analysis of the characteristics of local labor markets in Russia using big micro-level data. The first chapter deals with [...]
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EFFECT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC UPON DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN REGIONS OF RUSSIA
V. Kozlov, E. Mitrofanova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 136

Abstract
The preprint considers official statistical data on fertility, migration and mortality across Russian regions in 2020-2021 and is aimed at a comparison of dynamics of these processes in the time of COVID-19 pandemic and in the preceding years. To carry out this comparison, changes of several key demographic indicators (life expectancy at birth and inputs of different age groups and causes of death into its changes; total fertility rates of children of different birth orders; indicators of migration balance) in regions of Russia in the time before and during the pandemic are considered. It is shown that regional differences in dynamics of the mortality indicators were especially large. Sources of these differences need a separate study. Changes in fertility were more uniform: the pattern with decreasing fertility of first and second children with stable fertility of 3+ children was most common across regions. For migration, a considerable decrease of number of regions with a positive migration balance was observed in 2020 and, still more, in 2021.
Abstract
The preprint considers official statistical data on fertility, migration and mortality across Russian regions in 2020-2021 and is aimed at a comparison of dynamics of these [...]
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Assessment of migration potential from different countries of the world to Russia
E. Varshaver, A. Rocheva, N. Ivanova, T. Karabchuk

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 135

Abstract
The paper presents the results of a study conducted with the purpose of assessing various countries of the world in terms of migration potential to Russia, defined as the prospect of the emergence or increase in the volume of migration to Russia as a result of the purposeful efforts of the Russian state and society. The text presents a theoretical model, methodology and calculations of three main indicators: the general migration potential of the country, the migration potential to Russia and the migration potential to Russia, taking into account the population of the respective country. The formulas developed for calculating the migration potential take into account a variety of factors: demographic, geographic, economic, political, etc. For each indicator, calculations were made based on the available statistics for 129 countries. The results of the calculations allow singling out the countries that are most interesting from the point of view of migration potential to Russia – these are, first of all, the countries of Africa and the former USSR. The final part of the text discusses the limitations of the presented study and prospects for further work.
Abstract
The paper presents the results of a study conducted with the purpose of assessing various countries of the world in terms of migration potential to Russia, defined as the [...]
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METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT NON-MONETARY FACTORS IN MEASURING THE LEVEL OF POVERTY
A. Abroskin, N. Abroskina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 134

Abstract
The relevance of the research is related to the need of improving the methodology for measuring the population poverty level in the Russian Federation. The purpose of the research is to develop methodological approaches to inclusion of non-monetary components in the system of factors taken into account in the process of estimates construction of population poverty level and its dynamics in the Russian Federation. The tasks to be solved within the framework of the ongoing research include: analysis of existing methodological approaches to measuring the poverty level; identification of problematic aspects of the monetary indicators use in measuring the poverty level; analysis and systematization of promising international measurement experience taking into account non-monetary components; development of proposals for improving the methodology for constructing estimates of the poverty level in Russian statistics. The research was conducted as part of the research work of the 2021 RANEPA state task. During the research, methods of analysis and systematization of existing promising developments in the field of integrated measurements of the level and dynamics of the population poverty level were used. The information basis of the research was promising developments in the methodology of accounting for non-monetary factors in measuring poverty, presented in documents of international organizations UN, IMF, World Bank, OECD and EU, as well as relevant developments implemented in the statistics of individual countries. The specific results of the research include: developed methodological basis for constructing multidimensional estimates of the population poverty level, recommended approaches to taking into account non-monetary components in measuring the poverty level and its dynamics, proposals for taking into account deprivation characteristics in constructing multidimensional estimates of the population poverty level. The main conclusions of the research: the most promising approaches to accounting for non-monetary factors include the development of material deprivation indicators, which can be supplemented with information on indicators of social isolation. The prospects of the research and the directions of further work are related to the development of methodological basis for constructing estimates of the poverty level based on a combination of its monetary and material characteristics.
Abstract
The relevance of the research is related to the need of improving the methodology for measuring the population poverty level in the Russian Federation. The purpose of the [...]
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BRICS Sustainable Development Index
A. Sakharov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 133

Abstract
The relevance of the study stems from the fact that the global economic crisis of 2020, caused by the spread of coronavirus infection, had a negative impact on the prospects of implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2015 and the relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For the Russian Federation, measures to overcome the consequences of the crisis need to strike a balance between short-term economic objectives and long-term social and environmental goals outlined both in the SDGs and in the Decree "On the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030". The R&D is aimed at studying the experience of the BRICS countries in ensuring sustainable economic recovery and growth in the post-crisis period. Based on the data obtained, the BRICS Index of SDG Implementation will be developed, which will provide data on the progress and contribution of the BRICS countries to the implementation of the SDGs. Further annual updates of the Index will provide an objective assessment of the progress and contribution of the BRICS countries to the achievement of the SDGs. This study was conducted within the framework of the study "Building the BRICS SDG Index based on the analysis of national sustainable development policies. The object of the study is the sustainable development policies of the BRICS countries. The purpose of the study was to develop and test a mechanism for the assessment and comparative analysis of the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals in the BRICS countries. In preparing the paper, we used the methods of content analysis, comparative analysis of key international indices, statistical analysis and expert assessment. The paper presents the results of the analysis of the BRICS countries' (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) progress on 64 indicators of sustainable development for 2015 and 2020. The research resulted in the creation of the BRICS Sustainable Development Index, reflecting the progress in implementation and the level of priority of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (Agenda 2030) in the five countries. Conclusions. The following results were recorded based on the results of the Index formation: China made the most significant progress in all key SDG areas in 2015-2020, scoring highest on SDG 6, Clean Water and Sanitation, SDG 10, Reducing Inequality, and SDG 14, Preserving Marine Ecosystems. India, in second place, has progressed faster than other countries on SDG 1, Eradicate Poverty; SDG 4, Quality Education; and SDG 13, Combating Climate Change. Russia, ranked third, led in SDG 8, "Decent Work and Economic Growth," and SDG 9, "Industrialization, Innovation and Infrastructure. Brazil scored the highest in SDG 2 Ending Hunger and SDG 5 Gender Equality. Finally, South Africa made the most progress on SDG 15, "Preserve Terrestrial Ecosystems. Prospects for the study, directions for further work. In continuing the work in the future, it seems advisable to consider the possibility of taking the average values of sustainability indicators for three-year time periods as baseline data for the formation of the Index. The continuation of the study in the coming years will also ensure the accumulation of data over a longer period of time, which will allow for a multi-year analysis of the progress of the BRICS countries in their transition to more sustainable growth patterns.
Abstract
The relevance of the study stems from the fact that the global economic crisis of 2020, caused by the spread of coronavirus infection, had a negative impact on the prospects [...]
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Working Pensioners in the Russian Labor Market
M. Lopatina, V. Lyashok

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 132

Abstract
The problem of working pensioners in Russia is becoming more and more relevant in the context of the increase of the retirement age. The situation of this population group differs significantly from other groups on the labor market, as shown by numerous studies. This work focuses on the analysis of changes in this situation by 2022, four years after the start of the pension reform. It shows, on the one hand, an increase in employment in the age groups affected by the reform, and an increase in the length of working careers. A negative consequence of raising the retirement age was an increase in unemployment in older age groups and an increase in age-related wage differentials. On the other hand, the situation of working pensioners remains virtually unchanged compared to earlier studies. The highest proportion of the elderly are in budget-funded sectors, among those with a high level of education, and among specialists with medium and high qualifications. In light of this study, the problem of pension provision for working pensioners in Russia seems unresolved. The possibility of combining pensions and labor income leads to dramatic changes in the financial situation of senior citizens after they reach retirement age and for a short period of such a combination. At the same time, the reform currently underway to raise the retirement age should reduce the gap between retirement age and the age of exit from the labor market.
Abstract
The problem of working pensioners in Russia is becoming more and more relevant in the context of the increase of the retirement age. The situation of this population group [...]
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SUBJECTIVE WELL-BEING IN ADOLESCENTS’ ASSESSMENTS
A. Ipatova, M. Vyrskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 131

Abstract
The paper is based on the results of the research work «Methodology for conducting an administrative survey on issues of child well-being», accomplished by the team of the Field Research Center of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting (RANEPA) in 2021-2022. One of the most important criteria for the country's social development is the welfare of children. In order to make the concept of «child well-being» more definite, it is necessary to reach agreement between the experts’ community, the state and its society in determining the quality of life, and to develop social research tools that allow measuring the social well-being of children. The purpose of the study is to develop and test a survey toolkit to measure the social well-being of children. The objectives of the study are to form a questionnaire that allows a complex survey of children and parents and to conduct an administrative survey in the selected regions and in Russia as a whole, as well as in the context of various social groups of children living in two-parent, single-parent, foster families and childcare institutions. Methods used include online survey, administrative survey. The object of the research is families with children. The subject of the study is the mechanism for measuring a happy childhood based on six domains: education, health, financial situation, safety, social relations, and self-fulfillment. The results of this research work can be used in (1) formulating recommendations for improving the state policy in the field of child protection and education; (2) developing recommendations for the ongoing national program of systemic support and improving the quality of life of families with children, and 3) developing recommendations to the executive authorities, taking into account the needs of children, to determine the main directions and activities of family policy
Abstract
The paper is based on the results of the research work «Methodology for conducting an administrative survey on issues of child well-being», accomplished by the [...]
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The influence of migration processes on the transformation of the urban environment: a spatial aspect
V. Malakhov, M. Simon, D. Letnyakov, A. Motin, K. Yurina, M. Pralkova, A. Vasilchenko, E. Kandaurova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 130

Abstract
In recent years, the focus of urban studies has been gradually shifting from the issue of “ethnic enclaves” to the infrastructure created by migrants. The problem of territorially closed migrant communities in big cities does not lose its relevance, however, the settlement factor ceases to be a universal explanatory model for analyzing the dynamics of social integration. The attention of researchers is increasingly attracted by market, medical, information and entertainment infrastructures, through which members of migrant communities are involved in building new social ties without rigid reduction to their place of residence. In Russia, just as in Europe, migrants accumulate various resources through labor and neighborhood relations, as well as through participation in public organizations. However, how these relations are localized in the Russian cities and what institutions mediate them remains poorly understood. This work sheds light on the specifics of the post-Soviet context through comparison with the situation in Western European megacities.
Abstract
In recent years, the focus of urban studies has been gradually shifting from the issue of “ethnic enclaves” to the infrastructure created by migrants. The problem [...]
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MODELS AND MECHANISMS OF BUDGET FINANCING OF EDUCATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS OF HIGHER EDUCATION
K. T.L, T. G.S

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 129

Abstract
The paper discusses the main models and mechanisms that provide budget financing for higher education institutions. It analyzes the sources from which universities receive income, tools and procedures for budget financing, approaches and principles for building models on the basis of which the allocation of budget appropriations by a higher education institution is carried out
Abstract
The paper discusses the main models and mechanisms that provide budget financing for higher education institutions. It analyzes the sources from which universities receive [...]
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Factor models of cryptocurrency return within homogeneous groups
M. Kuznetsova, E. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, K. Shilov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 128

Abstract
There is still no common understanding of whether cryptocurrencies should be classified as financial assets or as currencies. The ambiguity and versatility of the definition of the nature and functions of cryptocurrencies give rise to a variety of views on the methods of modeling their returns. Therefore, the issue of essence of cryptocurrencies is topical. The main subject of the study is the return of cryptocurrencies. The main aim of this work is to identify the determinants of return of homogeneous groups of cryptocurrencies. To achieve this goal, such tasks as the formation of various groups of cryptocurrencies, modeling of factors that take into account the peculiarities of the cryptocurrency market, and the evaluation of multifactor models of the Fama-French type for the analysis of cryptocurrency returns have been performed. Based on the collected daily data on capitalization, trading volumes and the price of cryptocurrencies for the period from 01.04.2014 to 29.05.2022, standard factors for cryptocurrencies based on market capitalization, trading volumes and the first momentum, as well as factors reflecting the return of the cryptocurrency market as a whole and the return of the stock market (S&P500) were constructed. The main method of estimating regressions is econometric modeling using the least squares method. The results of an empirical study indicate a positive relationship between the return of homogeneous groups of cryptocurrencies and the difference in the yields of the upper and lower 30% of cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization. Weighted return of the cryptocurrency market based on market capitalization (analogous to the S&P500) has a positive impact on the return of homogeneous groups of cryptocurrencies. The main conclusion of the study is that the transition to empirical analysis based on homogeneous groups of cryptocurrencies allowed us to obtain stable results indicating the absence of a relationship between the return of financial assets and the return of cryptocurrencies that are in a single homogeneous group. The scientific novelty of the work consists in presenting an assessment of the impact of modeled factors on various groups (portfolios) of cryptocurrencies in certain periods of time. This study recommends conducting a search for the determinants of cryptocurrency returns and subsequent analysis of their impact.
Abstract
There is still no common understanding of whether cryptocurrencies should be classified as financial assets or as currencies. The ambiguity and versatility of the definition [...]
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MODERN APPROACHES TO ASSESSING THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: INTERNATIONAL PRACTICE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RUSSIA
D. Petrova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 127

Abstract
In this study we construct economic policy uncertainty indices for Russia using online news articles and VK posts. A comparative analysis of quantitative measures of economic uncertainty shows that the news index captures periods of economic uncertainty better than the Baker-Bloom-Davis index. On the contrary, the Baker-Bloom-Davis index for Russia is extremely sensitive to political instability and the period of the coronavirus. The goal of this study is to assess economic policy uncertainty in Russia. The study solves the following tasks: review of theoretical and empirical works on the analysis of the impact of uncertainty on the behavior of economic agents; analysis of approaches to quantitative assessment of economic policy uncertainty; collecting and preparing data; assessment of economic policy uncertainty index based on Russian data; econometric analysis of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on economic activity. The subject of the study is a quantitative assessment of the economic policy uncertainty index based on Russian data. The novelty of the scientific research is the analysis of the level of economic uncertainty in Russia using text analysis of online news articles and VK posts. Methods: text analysis, statistical and econometric methods of time series analysis. The study is carried out on Russian data during 1999-2022. The paper shows that news articles from online media can be used to assess economic policy uncertainty indices. The authors calculate three types of economic uncertainty index: news-based economic policy uncertainty index, economic policy uncertainty index based on VK posts and measures of financial uncertainty. The results of the econometric analysis indicate that an increase in economic policy uncertainty is associated with a decrease in real GDP, real consumption and real investment. The main conclusion of the study is that the news-based economic policy uncertainty index is useful for analyzing periods of economic instability in Russia
Abstract
In this study we construct economic policy uncertainty indices for Russia using online news articles and VK posts. A comparative analysis of quantitative measures of economic [...]
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ANALYSIS OF THE PROCESSES OF ADAPTATION OF THE NORTHERN CAUCASIAN MIGRANTS IN THE MEGAPOLIS (EVIDENCE FROM ST. PETERSBURG)
I. Starodubrovskaya, D. Sitkevich

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 126

Abstract
Relevance: Migration processes largely determine the face of the modern world. Their results lead to serious problems of intercultural communication, and successful approaches of solving them have not yet been developed. Different attempts both to pursue a policy of assimilation and to introduce the principles of multiculturalism often do not have a positive effect. Subject of research: Adaptation strategies of Northern Caucasian migrants in St. Petersburg. The purpose of this work is to analyze the processes of adaptation of Northern Caucasian migrants to the social and cultural environment of the metropolis, as well as to identify factors affecting its success. The scientific novelty of the preprint will consist in the description of foreign cultural internal migration in Russia from the point of view of various migration theories. Research methods: Review of migration theories available in literature, field research in St. Petersburg. Main results: A field study conducted showed that the theories under consideration have different explanatory potential for analyzing the processes of adaptation of Northern Caucasians in the metropolis. Thus, the concept of acculturation strategies, although it turned out to be a rather crude analysis tool, allowed us to characterize the differences between the adaptation of Northern Caucasian migrants of the first and second generation. The theory of transmigration has also revealed its productivity, in particular for describing the existing links between migrant communities of the metropolis and the regions of departure, as well as for determining the design of ethnic networks. At the same time, the theory of segmental assimilation in its classical form turned out to be inapplicable – both because of the lack of local protest countercultures that could be perceived by migrants, and because of the absence of a pronounced problem of the "second generation". At the same time, the field study demonstrated that migrants could adapt to the metropolis through specific cultural environments that are not countercultural – for example, sports or Islamic communities. These mechanisms of embedding in the city carry both certain benefits and inherent risks. Conclusions: Natives of the North Caucasus moving to St. Petersburg can use various adaptation strategies in the city - both in the urban mainstream and in specific cultural environments (but not in countercultures). At the same time, in some cases, there are also processes of separation of migrants from the urban community.
Abstract
Relevance: Migration processes largely determine the face of the modern world. Their results lead to serious problems of intercultural communication, and successful approaches [...]
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MANDATORY PENSION SAVINGS IN RUSSIA: EXPERIENCE AND PROSPECTS
A. Abramov, A. Radygin, M. Chernova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 125

Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the experience of creating a system of mandatory pension savings and assess the effectiveness of the activities of non-state pension funds. The research is focused on the management of pension savings portfolios in Russia. As a research method we use portfolio optimization, analysis of long time series on the return of various investment strategies, regression analysis for decomposition of non-state pension fund returns, stochastic modeling of return and risk with given asset allocation and benchmarks, modelling replacement ratio of a pension savings system’s participant. The modern demographic trends, the development of the labour market in the context of the progress of industrial technologies and other processes create the prerequisites for changes in pension systems. At the same time, the increasing volatility of financial markets and the trend of low yields give rise to discussions about the role of the pension savings system, its ability to increase the sustainability of pension system. The ability of existing pension portfolio management strategies to generate the necessary returns for pension savings is challenged. However, the number of studies and reports devoted to the problems of pension fund performance is relatively small. All this predetermines the relevance of studying the aspects of the pension savings system effectiveness, the effectiveness of portfolio management strategies in modern financial markets, and the implementation of regulation practices. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that the authors tried to comprehend the experience of the system of mandatory pension savings, conditions and prerequisites of its implementation, achievements and difficulties, to analyze the effectiveness of the activities of non-state pension funds on pension savings investment. The main result of the study is the development of methodological approaches necessary to assess the success of pension savings reforms in Russia. According to our estimates, the decision to introduce a pension savings pillar had been justified and, under certain circumstances, could have improved the well-being of future pensioners. We conclude that the successful implementation of the mandatory pension savings was violated by the frequent change of the regulation on the long-term horizon, unbalanced development of state and savings pension pillars, and low investment efficiency. In the future, the development of our study should contribute to the development of an institution of long-term and trusted internal savings.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the experience of creating a system of mandatory pension savings and assess the effectiveness of the activities of non-state pension [...]
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«PRODUCTIVE AND ERRONEOUS STRATEGIES OF THEORETICAL WORK IN MODERN PSYCHOLOGY»
K. Mustafina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 124

Abstract
Subject Psychological theories in cognitive science. Goal To identify theoretical and metatheoretical approaches to describing the field of cognitive psychology. Relevance During the 65 years of its existence, cognitive psychology has passed the path of development from a newly emerging interdisciplinary area of research to an independent discipline that incorporates various theoretical and methodological traditions. Experimentation as the main method of research, the diversity of research groups working on similar problems, and the use of mathematical modeling and behavioral dependent variables have resulted in the highest level of reproducibility of results obtained in cognitive psychology. Given the success, rapid development, and broad applied and public interest in the field of cognitive psychology, attempts to make sense of the metatheoretical aspects of cognitive research and especially changes in the way theories are constructed and empirically tested are of particular interest for further research both in cognitive psychology and in other psychological fields. Such metatheoretical work is needed: to identify the types of existing cognitive theories that are used in research; to clarify criteria for analyzing current empirical research, as well as for their interpretation; to indicate the changes that have occurred in theoretical work in the field over the past 30-40 years as a separate task. Scientific novelty The paper will review and analyze the main theoretical and metatheoretical approaches to describing the field of cognitive psychology. There are no works that comprehensively analyze the state of psychological theories in cognitive science. Methods Literature analysis. Results Over the past 40 years, research and theories have focused on narrow areas of cognitive science. Theories describing the solution to one problem are limited: they do not accumulate knowledge for the entire field, they do not address higher level processes. Conclusions In cognitive psychology, there is a high degree of fragmentation in theories. One possible solution to the theoretical contradictions is the way of modeling cognitive processes. Another solution is the development of a Unified Theory of Cognition (UTC). Recommendations This study is intended to answer several important theoretical and methodological questions related to the construction and change of theories in cognitive psychology. One of the key problems in the construction and development of cognitive theories is the lack of a clear description of how such theories have changed, what properties they have gained and what properties they have lost. Also, there is a lack of a classification of cognitive psychology theories, the creation of which is one of the results of our research series.
Abstract
Subject Psychological theories in cognitive science. Goal To identify theoretical and metatheoretical approaches to describing the field of cognitive psychology. Relevance [...]
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«COGNITIVE MECHANISMS OF MENTAL MODELS FUNCTIONING WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF NAIVE THEORIES»
N. Yachmeneva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 123

Abstract
Subject Academic dishonesty (fraud) Goal To develop a plan to modify and adapt a version of a questionnaire to measure the propensity for planned academic dishonesty in students based on planned behavior theory. Relevance Statistics on the scale of dishonesty and fraud in higher education are of concern to many countries, including Russia. Academic fraud leads to a number of negative consequences not only in the form of reduced efficiency and quality of education, but also the implementation of dishonest behavior in the workplace after graduation. Scientific novelty The paper will present a plan for adapting the first Russian-language methodology that measures the components of Planned Behavior Theory that predict the propensity for planned academic fraud. Methods Literature analysis. Results Based on the literature analysis, the problem, goal, objectives were defined, reasonable hypotheses were put forward, and practical relevance was spelled out. Conclusions An empirical research design for adapting a questionnaire to measure the propensity to engage in planned academic cheating was prepared. Recommendations The adapted Russian-language methodology for determining the propensity for academic dishonesty can be used as a working tool to identify attitudes, intentions, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and moral obligations of Russian students with regard to academic dishonesty, on the basis of which subsequent changes in the educational process, such as introduction of student ethical codes and building a system to deal with plagiarism can be implemented.
Abstract
Subject Academic dishonesty (fraud) Goal To develop a plan to modify and adapt a version of a questionnaire to measure the propensity for planned academic dishonesty in students [...]
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REDISTRIBUTION OF TAX REVENUES BETWEEN THE LEVELS OF THE BUDGET SYSTEM IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Y. Arlashkin, N. Barbashova, A. Deryugin, A. Komarnitskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 122

Abstract
The subject of the study is the distribution of tax revenues between the levels of the budget system in the Russian Federation. The relevance of the study is caused by the need to strengthen the vertical balance of the budget system through tax decentralization in the context of the restructuring of the Russian economy. The aim of the study is to find parameters of tax decentralization that do not worsen the horizontal balance of regional budgets. The research method is the modeling of tax revenues of the consolidated regional budgets. The study used data from the Federal Treasury, the Federal Tax Service and the Ministry of Finance of Russia for 2019–2021. The scientific novelty of the study consists in modeling the effects of tax decentralization on the level of differentiation of regional tax revenues using the latest available data. As a result of the study, it was shown that an increase in regional shares for personal income tax, some components of the MET, water tax and fees for the use of aquatic biological objects up to 100 % will not lead to an increase in inter-regional differentiation of per capita tax revenues. The conclusion of the study is that there is a potential for tax decentralization in Russia, which can be realized by redistributing tax revenues to the regional level without worsening the horizontal budget balance. The prospects of the study are to take into account the effects of the structural transformation of the economy on the territorial distribution of tax bases and the level of taxation, as well as to detail the calculations of the MET as new data are accumulated.
Abstract
The subject of the study is the distribution of tax revenues between the levels of the budget system in the Russian Federation. The relevance of the study is caused by the [...]
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GOVERNANCE QUALITY AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL: METHODIC APPROACH TO EVALUATION
E. Dobrolyubova, A. Starostina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 121

Abstract
The need for systemic efforts to improve governance quality at the regional level makes the subject of the study highly relevant to the policy agenda. The goal of the study is to develop and test a methodological approach to measuring the quality of governance at the regional level. The subject of the study includes governance performance at the regional level in Russia. The authors apply general analytical scientific methods such as quantitative, qualitative, and comparative analysis. The study is based on a review of statistical, administrative data, as well as regulatory documents, regional strategic documents, and related implementation performance reports. The study results include a review of existing approaches to measuring governance quality at the regional level, a methodological approach to evaluating the quality of governance and the results of its application. The study concludes that there is significant variation in terms of governance quality both within one region (i.e., over various quality parameters) and among regions. The dynamics of governance quality indicators also varies among regions, with some territories demonstrating improvements and others deterioration. The interregional variation cannot be explained exclusively by difference in the resources available. The regions with better governance quality demonstrate better social and economic performance. Improving quality of public governance would call for adapting reform approaches to specific regional needs. The novelty of the paper is related, first of all, to adaptation of governance performance indicators and testing the system based on the regional data, undertaking a comprehensive evaluation of the justification, effectiveness, and efficiency of the governance in Russian regions. It is recommended to use the methodology proposed in the paper for preparing and implementing governance improvement programs at the regional level.
Abstract
The need for systemic efforts to improve governance quality at the regional level makes the subject of the study highly relevant to the policy agenda. The goal of the study [...]
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THEORETICAL APPROACHES TO THE STUDY OF FUNCTIONS, STRUCTURE AND ELEMENTS OF THE SYSTEM OF PROFESSIONAL CULTURE OF CIVIL SERVANTS
T. Bogatyreva, S. Martynova, T. Lavrova, S. Evarovich, N. Gotovschikova, A. Yaroshenko

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 120

Abstract
The object of the research is the functions, structure and elements of civil servants’ professional culture system. It is undergoing transformation, following the changes that public administration undergoes under the influence of a service/client-centric development trend that meets current societal transformations and the possibilities of the technological revolution. The goal of the study is to systematize the range of mechanisms for developing a modern professional culture of civil service, primarily from the standpoint of client-centricity. The objectives are to identify the clientcentered governance values, highlighting the main characteristics of the modern professional civil service culture, which can be treated as the fundamental basis for its development; analyze modern tools for the formation and development of key values of civil servants, including, first of all, the values of the client-centered state. The research method is the review of scientific and professional sources from the standpoint of their reflecting the conceptual and instrumental aspects of the formation of the professional civil service culture. As a result, numerous characteristics of the modern professional civil service culture are identified, which can be attributed to the fundamental basis for the development of a client-centered culture and are based on the generalization of foreign and Russian experience. An ecosystem approach to the formation and development of components of a client-centered professional civil service culture is proposed. The novelty of this research work is determined by the lack of Russian or foreign scientific studies of tools that would be directly focused on the development of a client-centered professional culture, as well as the technologies through which these tools are to be used. Theprospects are related to the relevance of the introduction of client-centricity in the Russian government agencies, in accordance with the testing of respective tools, which began in 2022. They are also related to the need to update the scientific agenda of the professional culture formation with the issue of the productivity of introducing the values of client-centricity into the activities of government authorities.
Abstract
The object of the research is the functions, structure and elements of civil servants’ professional culture system. It is undergoing transformation, following the changes [...]
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KEY TRENDS IN THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF CITIES-REGIONAL CENTERS OF THE FAR EASTERN FEDERAL DISTRICT
D. Zemlyanskiy, V. Chuzhenkova, A. Abdullaev, L. Kalinovskiy, D. Medvednikova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 119

Abstract
The research work presents a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of the cities in Russia’s Far Eastern Federal District (DFO) and reflects both the current level of territorial development and the dynamics of key parameters over the period under review. The study is relevant due to the fact that Russian cities in recent years have regularly become the subject of discussion and analysis, both among the scientific community and among government representatives. The cities of the Far East are a priority given the remoteness of the territories and the number of projects implemented here in recent years. The goal of the study is to perform basic diagnostics of the socio-economic development of the regional centers of the Far Eastern Federal District and to identify medium- and long-term trends in the development of regional capitals of the macro region. To achieve this goal, the following objectives are identified: conducting socio-economic diagnostics of the socio-economic situation of the DFO regional capitals; comparing the development context of the DFO regional capitals ; identifying sustainable medium- and long-term trends (the choice of a time slice depends on the availability of data for each indicator). The work relies on open data sources. First of all, these include Rosstat data (data from the Rosstat website, the statistical collections of the department, EMISS (Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistics System) and BDPMO (Municipal Formations Performance Database) databases). For the parts of the work where there are no special links to the data source, Rosstat data is used. In addition, departmental data of the Federal Treasury, the Federal Tax Service, the Federal Air Transport Agency, etc. was used for individual sections. The key research methods used were: statistical analysis, economic analysis, mapping and GIS analysis, infographic construction methods and comparative analysis. The results of the study showed a significant differentiation between the DFO regional capitals in terms of the socio-economic development level and its dynamics in recent years. The best situation is observed in the capitals of extractive regions (due to high salaries and tax revenues of mining companies), as well as the key macro-regional centers, the largest in terms of population, Vladivostok and Khabarovsk, although the latter is noticeably inferior in terms of the residents’ personal income and local budget indicators. The situation is the worst in other regional centers along the Southern border of the Far Eastern Federal District, where low income compared to the national level fails to stimulate the development of market service industries, the share of "shadow" employment is high, and the real sectors of the urban economy are characterized by extended depression and low investment appeal, despite the potential of extractive industry development and trans-border opportunities. The research materials will be useful to the executive authorities at different levels, urban stakeholders and a broad range of experts and analysts.
Abstract
The research work presents a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of the cities in Russia’s Far Eastern Federal District (DFO) and reflects both [...]
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THE SOCIAL SITUATION IN RUSSIA IN 2022: INCOME OF THE POPULATION AND THE NEED FOR SOCIAL SUPPORT
T. Maleva, E. Tsatsura

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 118

Abstract
Given the significant current challenges for the socio-economic situation of the country, it is important to monitor the main indicators of the financial situation of the public, which emphasizes the relevance of this work. The goal of the study is to analyze statistical and sociological indicators of income and poverty of the population, as well as the need for additional social assistance. The objectives of the study are to analyze the dynamics of the following indicators: real disposable incomes of the population, the real size of the assigned pensions, the real wages of employees of various organizations, the retail turnover, the consumer price index, the total cash income, the amount of remuneration for employees of various organizations, the structure of cash income, the usage structure of cash incomes, the share of the population with cash incomes below the poverty line. Within the framework of the sociological section, the objective of the study is to analyze the public opinion about the financial situation of the families and its change, the availability of savings, and the need for social support. The methods used include the review of Rosstat data for 2022, as well as the analysis of findings from a survey conducted by RANEPA during 2022. The object of the study is the financial situation of the population in Russia. The subject of the study is the dynamics of indicators describing income and poverty. The results of the study show that in 2022 there is a decrease in real wages, real pensions and real disposable incomes of the population, retail trade turnover, and an increase in inflation. All this indicates an increase in the risks of poverty. Polls show that about a quarter of the population only has enough money to buy food, or even less than that; almost a third of the respondents have per capita incomes of less than 1 subsistence minimum. More than a third of the respondents have practically no savings: if they happen to lose all their income streams, they will be able to cover current expenses for no more than one month. More than half of the respondents report their need for additional social payments, more than 20% talk about the need for free food packages.
Abstract
Given the significant current challenges for the socio-economic situation of the country, it is important to monitor the main indicators of the financial situation of the [...]
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International Migrants and Indigenous Residents in the Russian Labor Market: An Empirical Analysis Based on Labor Force Survey Data
Y. Florinskaya, M. Kartseva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 117

Abstract
Millions of international migrants are living in Russia today. This paper, based on Rosstat’s “Selective Observation of Migrant Labor” survey conducted in 2019, provides an econometric comparative analysis of the labor market situation for migrants arriving to Russia since 1992 vs. the local population. The migrants’ situation is compared by multiple indicators, depending on the duration of their residence in Russia – less than one year; one to five years; 5 years or more. It is demonstrated that the migration has no statistically significant effect on the availability of paid employment. At the same time, the sectoral structure of employment, as well as the structure of employment in terms of occupational groups, show significant differences depending on the period of migrants’ stay in Russia. Recent migrants, living in Russia for less than 5 years, are significantly more likely to work in construction and trade, and much less likely to go into healthcare, education, or public administration, compared to those who have been living in Russia for more than 5 years. At the same time, old-timer migrants are much more likely to be middle or top-level specialists, or to hold managerial positions. The most notable differences between the situations of recent and old-timer migrants, as well as the locals, can be observed in labor relations between the employee and the employer. All other things being equal, recent migrants are significantly more likely to have no formal employment contract, as opposed to old-timer migrants or the locals. The longer the migrants stay in Russia, the more they adapt to the Russian labor market, and with a sufficiently long period of residence, the labor market shows almost no difference between the situations of migrants and the locals
Abstract
Millions of international migrants are living in Russia today. This paper, based on Rosstat’s “Selective Observation of Migrant Labor” survey conducted in [...]
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Indecision about vaccination: individual, organizational, contextual factors
S. Korzhuk

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 116

Abstract
Developing and successfully implementing effective vaccination programs requires understanding the peculiarities of the people’s attitude towards vaccination. The prevalence of indecision regarding vaccination (understood as refusing or postponing vaccination despite the availability of vaccines) among the population can undermine the formation of collective immunity and compromise the effectiveness of vaccination programs. The goal of this work is to analyze the key factors influencing the people’s behavior and attitude towards vaccination. For this purpose, the authors review domestic and foreign studies devoted of the public behavior and attitude towards vaccination. As a result, three large groups of factors of population behavior in relation to vaccination are described: individual, organizational, and contextual. The most important socio-demographic predictors of readiness to be vaccinated are age and level of education. Such psychological features as the presence of cognitive distortions, intuitive thinking style, highly reactive temperament type contribute to indecision regarding vaccination. Other significant determinants of the readiness for vaccination are a high level of trust in the government, political actors, science and health authorities, social and interpersonal trust. In the context of the pandemic, concerns about the safety and effectiveness of vaccines and unknown long-term side effects have become the main reasons for hesitation regarding vaccination. At the same time, awareness about the vaccines and the diseases they prevent, the availability of reliable and transparent information is positively associated with the willingness to get vaccinated. The intention to get vaccinated will be higher if the perceived probability of COVID-19 infection is high and the expected consequences for one's own and others’ health and well-being are assessed as serious. Previous vaccination experience, the presence of those vaccinated against COVID-19 and/or those who have contracted the disease in one’s social environment can act as the incentives for vaccination. The most important organizational factors contributing to a positive attitude and desire to get vaccinated are the availability of vaccination services, high awareness of the vaccines and a positive attitude towards them on the part of medical professionals. At the same time, the short development time of the new vaccines, the novelty of some platforms carrying the COVID-19 vaccine antigen, contribute to indecision regarding vaccination. Contextual factors include historical, political, and socio-cultural factors, as well as the state of the communication and information environment.
Abstract
Developing and successfully implementing effective vaccination programs requires understanding the peculiarities of the people’s attitude towards vaccination. The prevalence [...]
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INFORMAL ECONOMY WORKERS: WELLBEING AND NEED OF SOCIAL ASSISTANCE
E. Tsatsura, E. Grishina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 115

Abstract
The challenges for the socio-economic situation in the country have been growing since 2020. The issues of prompt, accessible and sufficient state support for different population groups affected by the current crisis come to the fore, which emphasizes the relevance of this work. The goal of the study is to analyze the prevalence of employment in the informal economy, the financial situation of workers employed in the informal economy, their social support coverage and the need for additional social assistance. The objectives of the study are to analyze the prevalence of informal employment and employment in the informal sector, including among various socio-demographic groups of workers, as well as to analyze the financial situation, social support coverage and the need for additional social assistance for informally employed workers and workers in the informal sector. The methods used include the analysis of data from the Rosstat Labor Force Survey for 2019, 2020 and 2021, as well as the analysis of data from RANEPA surveys conducted in December 2021 and September 2022. The object of the study is those employed in the informal economy in Russia. The subject of the study is the prevalence of employment in the informal economy, the financial situation of workers employed in the informal economy, the social support coverage and the need for additional social assistance. The results of the study show that the share of people working in the informal economy as their main place of work in 2019-2020 amounted to 18-19% of the total number of employees. Among those employed in the informal economy, there is a higher share of men, young workers, people with a lower level of education, employed as blue-collar workers, in the service sector, trade, agriculture and construction. Informally employed employees face increased risks of monetary and deprivation poverty, are more likely to be forced to spend savings, and have high risks of losing their jobs and reducing labor incomes. At the same time, individual entrepreneurs and the self-employed are in a better position than the working population as a whole. The results obtained contribute to the development of ideas about the financial situation of the workers employed in the informal economy.
Abstract
The challenges for the socio-economic situation in the country have been growing since 2020. The issues of prompt, accessible and sufficient state support for different population [...]
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BEHAVIORAL PRACTICES OF THE POPULATION TO PROTECT ITS HEALTH
A. Pokida, I. Gazieva, N. Zybunovskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 114

Abstract
This scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center for Social and Political Monitoring of the RANEPA Institute for Social Sciences. The relevance of research. Protecting the public health is a priority of state policy. The quality of life of citizens, their labor potential, and the health of future generations depend on the state of health. The pandemic has changed the habitual way of life for the Russians, as it affected their ideas on how to maintain their health, exacerbated the contradiction between the values of a healthy lifestyle and the actual behavior of the citizens. In this regard, it is necessary to constantly diagnose the current situation in the sphere of self-preservation behavior of Russians. The goal of the study is to identify, analyze and evaluate changes in the key behavioral practices of various social and demographic groups of the Russian population aimed at improving the state of health; to assess the priority areas of state policy for the formation of a healthy lifestyle of the population. The object of the study is the behavioral practices of various social and demographic groups of the Russian population related to healthy lifestyles. The main research method is an all-Russian sociological survey based on a sample representing the territorial distribution of the Russian population, the ratio of residents in different types of settlements, as well as the main socio-demographic groups, and comparing the results with the results of earlier surveys. Based on the results of the study, this paper presents an analysis of changes in the main behavioral practices of various social and demographic groups of the Russian population, aimed at improving the state of public health. The study allows us to draw the following conclusions. Despite an increase in the demand for qualified medical care in case of a discomfort or illness, self-treatment remains a common practice. There is still a significant number of citizens who are deprived of necessary medical services and medicines due to a lack of money or the unavailability of suitable medical professionals in their area of residence. Most of the respondents believe that they have a healthy lifestyle, but over the past year, the proportion of citizens with this point of view does not show positive dynamics. Meanwhile, these statements by the respondents tend to differ from the actual behavior practice. Some of them, despite classifying themselves as leading a healthy lifestyle, continue smoking or using alcohol regularly. The scientific novelty of this study lies in the fact that it seeks to obtain up-to-date sociological information about the health condition of citizens in a changing epidemiological and socio-economic situation, the impact of various behavioral practices on their physical and social well-being. Recommendations based on the results of the study are related to the need to adjust management decisions related to promoting a healthy lifestyle of the population based on the findings of the study.
Abstract
This scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center for Social and Political Monitoring of the RANEPA Institute for Social Sciences. The relevance of [...]
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THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE SHADOW LABOR MARKET
A. Pokida, I. Gazieva, N. Zybunovskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 113

Abstract
This scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center for Social and Political Monitoring of the RANEPA Institute of Social Sciences. The relevance of research. A significant part of the able-bodied population in the country is engaged in in the shadow economy, with a significant amount of funds remaining unaccounted for. There is an obvious need to resolve the conflict of interest between the state and the citizens involved in the shadow economy, to stimulate official employment and limit non-criminal shadow economic activity while maintaining a balance of interests of all economic actors. The goal of the study is to analyze and evaluate the dynamics of the involvement of various groups of the employed population in the shadow labor market, to find optimal solutions stimulating official employment and limiting non-criminal shadow economic activity. The subject of the study is the state and dynamics of the formation of the shadow labor market in modern conditions. The main research method is an all-Russian sociological survey of the employed Russian population and a comparison of the results obtained with earlier surveys. Based on the results of the study, this paper presents an analysis and assessment of the dynamics of the involvement of various groups of the employed population in various forms of shadow relations in the labor market. The study allows us to draw the following conclusions. The results of the study show that over the past two years there has been an increase in the participation of the public in the shadow economy. The largest proportion of informal workers is still noted among those employed in private practice as their main job. Among the hired workers, the share of those without formal registration remains unchanged and even increased slightly over the past year. In general, a significant share of the employed population continues to be quite loyal to various manifestations of non-criminal shadow economic activity. This situation creates the prerequisites for maintaining the involvement of the population in the shadow labor market. Among the measures contributing to the reduction of informal employment, the respondents primarily note a reduction in tax payments, a decrease in social inequality and an increase in the role of social guarantees and social protection for workers in the formal economy. The scientific novelty of this study lies in the fact that it seeks to obtain up-to-date sociological information about the main processes taking place in the shadow labor market, their development trends in a changing epidemiological and socio-economic situation. The recommendations based on the results of the study are related to the need to adjust management decisions in the field of stimulating official employment and limiting the participation of the population in the shadow labor market.
Abstract
This scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center for Social and Political Monitoring of the RANEPA Institute of Social Sciences. The relevance of research. [...]
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«NAIVE EPISTEMOLOGY: ARE OUR CONTEMPORARIES SPONTANEOUS FOLLOWERS OF DESCARTES?»
V. Spiridonov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 112

Abstract
Subject of study The subject of naive epistemology can be defined more narrowly: it studies naive ideas about the nature and nature of knowledge. Researchers in this field are also interested in how people receive and transmit knowledge, and under the influence of what factors this knowledge is transformed in the process of communication? Goal The main purpose of the study is to find answers to the following questions: how do modern educated adults describe the interaction of mind and body? Are they spontaneous empiricists or rationalists? How do they cope with the explanation of cognitive paradoxes? Relevance In the second half of the 20th century, disciplines such as naive psychology and theory of consciousness were born, which study beliefs, assumptions and hypotheses about the world in everyday life, their influence on behavior and the development of processes that cause these processes. Researchers in this field are also interested in how people receive and transmit knowledge, and under the influence of what factors this knowledge is transformed in the process of communication. Do people rely on induction and empirical evidence in favor of their ideas (naive empiricism), or deductively deduce knowledge from premises that they consider axioms (naive rationalism). Scientific novelty Over the past decade, due to the proliferation of studies using reaction time analysis, which allows us to study the functioning of intuitive theories, a lot of empirical evidence has accumulated indicating the stability of early intuitive theories. The white spot in such works remains precisely the stability of ideas during a specific study. As a rule, each stimulus that needs to be evaluated is presented only once, which complicates the possibility of checking how consistent the subjects are in their responses related to the same mental model. Methods It is planned to conduct a series of factorial experimental studies using special network services (such as Pavlovia). Results Mental models explaining different options for acquiring knowledge about knowledge (i.e., theories of naive epistemology) are classified; The analysis and systematization of existing experimental methods for studying mental models has been carried out; A plan has been developed for an experimental method of analyzing mental models of naive epistemology based on the reaction time of the responses of the subjects. Conclusion The differences in reaction time for conflicting and congruent statements can be explained in different ways. One of the possibilities is related to the functioning of mental models. On the one hand, the elements of the semantic network are activated by the first response, which provides acceleration of «closer», but not "distant" elements of it. On the other hand, the differences in response time may be due to the activation of inhibitory processes in the situation of verification of conflicting statements. Although the result is quite expected, the mechanisms of such a phenomenon remain an urgent topic for further research. Recommendations The results of this research can be used in the interests of the Department of Science, High Technology and Education of the Government of the Russian Federation, as well as the Council for Science and Education under the President of the Russian Federation for • scientific and methodological support for changes in social sectors aimed at improving the effectiveness of education and science; • analysis of fundamental and long-term factors of trends in the formation of state policy in the field of scientific and innovative development; • qualitative improvement of education standards in the humanitarian sphere. Possible practical significance of research: analysis and prognostic examination of long-term factors and trends in the formation of state policy in the field of organization, development of education, public relations, as well as improvement of personnel policy.
Abstract
Subject of study The subject of naive epistemology can be defined more narrowly: it studies naive ideas about the nature and nature of knowledge. Researchers [...]
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ANALYSIS OF THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF GENERAL EDUCATION
N. Tarasova, I. Pastukhova, S. Chigrina, A. Kazakov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 111

Abstract
Digital transformation of the society, boosted by the COVID-19 pandemic, has determined new processes in the socio-economic sphere. Foreign and domestic researchers are unanimous in their opinion that digitalization is the main trend of global development, and the need for digital transformation of education is preconditioned by organizational, technological, managerial, economic, and other changes taking place in various spheres of society, economy and production. Object of the study: the digital transformation process. Subject: general education. Goal: to identify the essence and characteristics of the implementation of digital transformation processes in general education. Objectives: to analyze the essence and semantic understanding of the "digital transformation" category; to describe the types and structure of the main processes of digital transformation in general education. Methods: methodological approaches: systemic approach; research methods: theoretical (analysis of information sources; comparative study; content analysis; generalization, systematization). Conclusions: there is no unity in the scientific attribution of the concepts of "digitalization of education", "digital transformation of education"; analysis of the prospects of digital transformation of general education indicates that its main positive effects may be as follows: ensuring equality of educational opportunities and continuity of education; updating the goals and content of education; optimizing forms, methods, teaching and methodological support of the educational process and the students’ learning and cognitive activities; creating conditions for personalized learning; increasing the effectiveness of quality control and monitoring; reducing the amount of routine work for management and teaching staff, etc.; based on the analysis of scientific research, the problem of information security of electronic educational resources used in general education has been identified; an analysis of the current situation on the software market is presented, and general recommendations on the protection of data recorded in electronic educational resources are given
Abstract
Digital transformation of the society, boosted by the COVID-19 pandemic, has determined new processes in the socio-economic sphere. Foreign and domestic researchers are unanimous [...]
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PROTECTION OF PUBLIC VALUES: EVALUATING STATE REGULATORY ENFORCEMENT ACTIVITY FROM CITIZEN PERSPECTIVE
V. Uzhakov, A. Pokida, E. Dobrolyubova, N. Zybunovskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 110

Abstract
The federal legislation defines a list of regulatory enforcement activities aimed at minimizing risks to legally protected public values (such as life and health, property, privacy, other human rights, plants and animals, natural habitats). Therefore, monitoring studies aiming at collecting public perceptions of the protection of these public values are highly relevant for tracking the reform progress. The goal of this paper is to identify public perceptions of the extent of protection of public values and evaluate regulatory enforcement performance. The subject of the study is regulatory enforcement activity aimed at reducing risks to the public values. The primary method of the study is a representative public survey, the findings of which are compared to earlier surveys carried out in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. The results presented in the paper include an analysis of the dynamics in public perception of the effectiveness and efficiency of the state regulatory enforcement activities. The paper concludes that while there are some positive trends in improving public perceptions of the safety of public values, the overall level of these perceptions is unsatisfactory. Less than a half of all the survey participants have positive perceptions on any of the risks considered. The frequency of risk events remains high: half of the respondents faced at least one risk in the 2 years preceding the survey. Both time and financial costs borne by citizens applying for protection to the state regulatory and enforcement authorities have not changed significantly. This shows that the efficiency of state regulatory enforcement authorities has not improved in the public view. The novelty of the study is related to collecting and analyzing empirical data to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of state regulatory enforcement bodies, as perceived by the public. The paper recommends streamlining the procedures for handling citizen complaints to state regulatory enforcement bodies and improving public access to information on the ways of protecting public values from the risks.
Abstract
The federal legislation defines a list of regulatory enforcement activities aimed at minimizing risks to legally protected public values (such as life and health, property, [...]
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QUALITY OF GOVERNMENT REGULATORY ENFORCEMENT AND REGULATORY BURDEN LEVEL IN 2022: EVALUATION FROM PRIVATE BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE
V. Uzhakov, E. Dobrolyubova, A. Pokida, N. Zybunovskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 109

Abstract
Evaluating the outcomes of the large-scale reforms of regulatory policies and enforcement and inspection practices conducted in Russia requires a business perspective, making this study highly relevant to the current governance agenda. The goal of the paper is to evaluate the private businesses’ perceptions regarding the quality of state regulatory enforcement and inspection activities and the regulatory burden on businesses. The subject of the study is the quality of state regulatory enforcement and inspection activities, including its justification, effectiveness, and efficiency, and the regulatory burden. The key method of the study is a representative sociological survey of private business entities. The results presented in the paper include the analysis of private business perceptions regarding all parameters of state regulatory enforcement and inspection quality (justification, effectiveness, and efficiency) as well as evaluations of regulatory burden. The study concludes that the perceptions of justified nature and efficiency of state regulatory enforcement activities have improved, compared to the outcomes of previous surveys conducted in 2017, 2020, and 2021. The business perceptions of adequacy of the regulatory requirements and the ease of compliance have also improved. However, the perceived impact of state regulatory enforcement on reducing risks of damage to the public values still remains low. No significant changes have been recorded in the perception of regulatory burden. The novelty of the study is related to collection and analysis of new empirical data on how businesses perceive the quality of regulatory enforcement and inspection activities and regulatory burden. The recommendations made based on the study results suggest the need for further improvement of both regulatory enforcement and regulation itself. Both regulation and regulatory enforcement activities should be more oriented at minimizing the risks of damage to public values and strengthening the positive impact of inspection activity on the safety of business facilities, processes and products
Abstract
Evaluating the outcomes of the large-scale reforms of regulatory policies and enforcement and inspection practices conducted in Russia requires a business perspective, making [...]
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GOVERNMENT DIGITALIZATION: EVALUATING EFFECTIVENESS AND RISKS FROM PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE
E. Dobrolyubova, V. Uzhakov, A. Pokida, N. Zybunovskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 108

Abstract
Digital transformation is one of Russia’s national goals and development objectives. Therefore, monitoring sociological studies aimed at collecting public perceptions of effectiveness and risks of government digitalization are highly relevant. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the effects of government digitalization from the public perspective. The subject of the study is the interaction between the state (public authorities and state institutions) and citizens with the use of digital technologies during the performance of publicly relevant government functions. The primary method of the study is a representative sociological public survey. The results presented in the paper contain an evaluation of the effectiveness of government digitalization from the citizens’ perspective, an analysis of the public readiness to engage in digital interaction with the public authorities as well as an evaluation of the risks associated with government digitalization, as perceived by the public. The paper demonstrates that a vast majority of Russians (88.2 percent) have engaged in digital interaction with the state over the past year. The study concludes that while overall evaluation of government digitalization effectiveness in terms of improving governance quality is positive, some areas are more problematic. For instance, less than a quarter of the respondents feels that the use of digital technology has improved the quality of education. Despite significant experience in digital interaction with the state, most respondents are not always ready to choose the digital channel for every issue. The choice of digital channel over other possible interaction means mostly depends on digital skills. The respondents evaluate the risks associated with government digitalization as high. Better educated respondents with higher digital skills are more likely to note that government digitalization risks are substantial, compared to other citizens. The novelty of the study is related to developing and implementing sociological instruments for measuring effectiveness and risks of government digitalization as perceived by the public. The paper recommends to account for the public evaluation of digital government effectiveness and risks while planning and implementing the government’s digital transformation initiatives at the federal and at the regional level.
Abstract
Digital transformation is one of Russia’s national goals and development objectives. Therefore, monitoring sociological studies aimed at collecting public perceptions [...]
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ARCHIVE AND DOCUMENT IN PERFORMATIVE ARTS: THEORIES, METHODOLOGIES AND PRACTICES
Z. Vasil'yeva, A. Dunaeva, V. Zolotukhin, U. Liderman

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 107

Abstract
The problem of archiving and document status has long been one of the cornerstones for the theory of performative arts. Moreover, for decades its discussion has inevitably accompanied discussions about the key concepts of the theory of performative arts: presence, media and mediatization, participation, etc. In the modern art of the last third of the twentieth century, thanks to institutional criticism, the archive was interpreted as an artistic form. Conceptual art and the art of institutional criticism are associated with numerous projects of fictitious, composed archives, author's collections, etc. Archiving and documentation as a problem and technique have spread widely beyond the gallery and museum into cinematography, theater, street art. The concept of a New Archive appeared in aesthetics, which was developed in Russian philosophy by Elena Petrovskaya. These circumstances require the reaction of both the professional community of historians, archivists engaged in art archives, and the community of historians.
Abstract
The problem of archiving and document status has long been one of the cornerstones for the theory of performative arts. Moreover, for decades its discussion has inevitably [...]
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Socio-demographic and economic factors of health and health behavior of children and adolescents
T. Maleva, M. Kartseva, P. Kuznetsova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 106

Abstract
Children’s health not only largely determines the health of the population at the current time but is also a key determinant of health and other aspects of life in adulthood. Understanding the factors that determine health in childhood can provide important information for the design of an effective state policy in the field of children’s health. The paper presents the results of a critical analysis and systematization of Russian and foreign scientific studies of the determinants of children's health and health-related behaviors. The literature review is based on contemporary publications in the fields of economics, sociology, medicine and public health. The results of scientific research indicate that the most important socio-economic determinants of children's health in developed countries are material well-being, living conditions, migration status, education and employment of parents, parental health, lifestyle and behavior of people around the child, and environmental factors. Among the demographic factors of child health, the demographic structure of the household and the gender of the child stand out. The results of Russian and foreign studies in the field of medicine and public health show that, despite the differences in national health systems, children from wealthier families tend to show better health compared to children from less wealthy families (social gradient in health). To the best of our knowledge, the number of studies of the health factors of Russian children and adolescents, based on nationally representative data, is very limited. Existing studies were carried out quite a long time ago, their methodology and results need to be updated. Literature review lays the theoretical and methodological foundations for conducting a modern econometric study of the health factors and health-related behavior of Russian children.
Abstract
Children’s health not only largely determines the health of the population at the current time but is also a key determinant of health and other aspects of life in adulthood. [...]
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"FACTORS OF SEXUAL SATISFACTION AND FEATURES OF THE DISCOURSE ABOUT SEXUAL RELATIONS: RESULTS OF A TELEPHONE SURVEY"
M. K.M, S. O.B.

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 105

Abstract
The paper highlights the results of the research study “Partnership and romantic relationships during the pandemic and afterwards”, conducted by the team of the Field Research Center of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting (RANEPA) at the beginning of 2021. The work includes a systematic review of relevant foreign literature about changing attitudes during a pandemic in various countries, characteristics of sexual behavior, and sexual satisfaction. Turned out in a situation of self-isolation, the relationships within families, married couples and between partners were subjected to a serious test. The experience of such a long stay together was unfamiliar for many people. How did this affect the couple? How did the relationship change during the period of self-isolation and quarantine? What happened after? What are the consequences of the pandemic in this area of human life? These issues require close study by experts of various disciplines – sexologists, psychologists, physicians, as well as sociologists. The research work is based on the findings of empirical studies which can be used in social and family policy, particularly for: 1) information support of executive authorities on demographic development and demographic policy affairs; 2) development of specific directions in the field of family policy.
Abstract
The paper highlights the results of the research study “Partnership and romantic relationships during the pandemic and afterwards”, conducted by the team of the [...]
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National and regional innovation systems: best practices in developed and developing countries
M. Ivanova, S. Zemtsov, A. Mikhailov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 104

Abstract
Relevance of the research: The totality of national and regional innovation systems, implying sustainable interaction and cooperation between scientific, educational, government organizations and businesses, is the basis for the country's innovative and economic development. Due to the wide variety of systems existing in the world, it seems appropriate to identify the main problems and patterns of their development in the advanced and developing economies. The results of the study will help determine the directions for improving the regional policy of the Russian Federation in the field of innovation economics. The goal of this study is to analyze and summarize foreign experience in organizing national and regional innovation systems. Research methods and methodology: comparative analysis, system analysis, qualitative analysis, historical and economic analysis. Scientific novelty: We conducted a deep analysis and identified best practices for organizing national and regional innovation systems in developed (USA, France, Switzerland, Japan, Republic of Korea) and some rapidly developing countries (China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Colombia, Mexico). Results: The effectiveness of the national innovation system is largely determined by the level of interaction between scientific institutions and entrepreneurs. The development of innovation support infrastructure, the existence of targeted programs tailored to the demands of innovative businesses, as well as the coherence of the goals of the development programs at various territorial levels, contribute to an increase in the effectiveness of innovation activities. The degree of centralization of the innovation system directly depends on the political and administrative structure of the country. The effective development of innovative systems in the long run is only possible if the actual territorial, ethnical and cultural barriers are overcome, the operations of high-tech SMEs are stimulated, and the innovative capabilities of universities are increased.
Abstract
Relevance of the research: The totality of national and regional innovation systems, implying sustainable interaction and cooperation between scientific, educational, government [...]
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“Not allowing to pernicious ways”: Jewish movement and reproduction of intolerance
G. Zelenina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 103

Abstract
Based on ego-documents (personal and open letters, memoirs), Samizdat (self-published books) and oral history sources, the article examines the Soviet Jewish movement activists’ (“Refuseniks”) attitudes towards their own Others, inner dissidents: Judeo-Christians and so-called noshrim, who used Israeli visas to emigrate to the USA or other Western countries, as well as to the “silent” majority who refused to emigrate, and some other groups. The article describes how they were marginalized and transformed into inner enemies, and discusses probable patterns and reasons for this intolerance in the contexts of Jewish history, sociology of envy, and studies on Soviet personality and collective values. The relevance of the research is defined by its use of sources that have not been used in scientific research before, as well as the choice of topic, which is somewhat painful for its parties, which affects the canonical image of the refusenik movement and therefore is often omitted in the related commemorative and scientific literature. The analysis shows that in this case (and at least in some other cases) the victimization experience does not produce tolerance to the others, as the victims of intolerance are just as intolerant, often adopting their oppressors’ practices and rhetoric, and that the community developing or reconstructing one or another identity naturally tends to build walls and segregate their own dissidents.
Abstract
Based on ego-documents (personal and open letters, memoirs), Samizdat (self-published books) and oral history sources, the article examines the Soviet Jewish movement activists’ [...]
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SANITARY REFORMS IN EAST ASIA IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 19TH AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURIES (HONG KONG’ AND SHANGHAI’ CASES)
D. Mikhel, I. Mikhe, O. Malinovskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 102

Abstract
The aim of the study is to analyze the history of sanitary reforms in East Asia on the territory of two European enclaves (Hong Kong and Shanghai), which became important centers of transit of Western public health theories and practices to China in the second half of XIX - first half of XX centuries. The relevance of the research is conditioned by the necessity of understanding the historical experience of social processes management in complex epidemiological situations and development of Russian society response to new big challenges, connected with epidemic spreading. The novelty of the study consists in clarifying the existing scientific picture of the formation of modern public health management institutions in East Asia during the period from the beginning of European expansion into China to the Japanese invasion. The study was conducted in 2022 using primary sources from digital libraries in London (Wellcome Collection), Hong Kong (Digital Repository of Hong Kong University), and Shanghai (Virtual Shanghai), as well as works by Western and Chinese historians on public health and sanitation in Asia. During the study methods of historical knowledge were used: problem-chronological, comparative-historical, historical-typological. Methodology of social history of public health became the theoretical base of research. The conclusions of the study are as follows. Sanitary reforms began in those parts of East Asia where European influence was strong. At the forefront of the reforms were the British colony of Hong Kong and the international settlements in Shanghai, where Europeans had to adapt to the difficult conditions of climate, the burden of infectious diseases, and constant overcrowding. Rationalizing the management of urban space, they did not try to offer their way of life to the Chinese population, seeing them as culturally backward and unable to assimilate such civilizational achievements as sewage and running water, but under the pressure of economic and epidemiological 6 needs this step was taken. As a result, by the end of the 1930s, Hong Kong and Shanghai had become prosperous cities with relatively good sanitary and epidemiological conditions
Abstract
The aim of the study is to analyze the history of sanitary reforms in East Asia on the territory of two European enclaves (Hong Kong and Shanghai), which became important [...]
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THE DARK TRIAD TRAITS AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR IN RELATION TO TOLERANCE TO UNCERTAINTY
K. D.S., B. M.V., Y. N.P.

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 101

Abstract
The relevance of this research lies in the fact that it investigates psychological characteristics as predictors of economic behavior, specifically personal financial management and risky economic decisions. The purpose of this study is to examine 1) the characteristics of economic behavior concerning tolerance to uncertainty, 2) the impact of dispositional variables in economic behavior decisions made by individuals with various levels of the Dark Triad traits (Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy), and different levels of materialism. The methodological basis of the research is the theory of psychological traits. Economic behavior and decision-making were analyzed using the perspective theory and an economic-psychological approach. Two studies are presented, one using correlational method and the other using quasi-experimental design. The research was conducted online, with diagnostic methods including a survey and resolution of situational tasks. The research sampling consists of undergraduate students. Principal findings. Tolerance to ambiguity and the level of Dark Triad traits raise the chance of making risky economic decisions in actual behavior. With varying degrees of tolerance to uncertainty and the Dark Triad traits, framing has the same influence on economic decision-making. While the combination of the Dark Triad traits and materialism contributes to disparities in personal financial management, an inclination toward materialism is more predictive of economic behavior. Economic behavior varies according to the mix of materialistic orientation and the Dark Triad. The findings of the study can serve as the basis for additional research into economic behavior and the creation of practical programs to develop and prevent dangerous economic behavior.
Abstract
The relevance of this research lies in the fact that it investigates psychological characteristics as predictors of economic behavior, specifically personal financial management [...]
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REGULAR MONITORING OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
D. Zemlyanskiy, V. Chuzhenkova, A. Abdullaev, L. Kalinovskiy, V. Kulikov, D. Medvednikova, I. Shampurov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 100

Abstract
This study focuses on the changes in the dynamics of socio-economic development and interregional inequality of the Russian regions in 2019-2020. Peculiarities of territorial development of the Russian Federation, unevenness and key trends in the socio-economic development of Russian regions have become central issues of the federal development agenda in the last few years. At the same time, at the present stage there is no comprehensive database and systematically updated aggregated analytical information that allows tracking key trends in the development of the economies of the subjects of the Russian Federation on a regular basis. The goal of the study is to develop and test the methodology for building a system for regular monitoring and evaluation of the main directions of socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation using statistical and departmental data. In accordance with the overall goal, the following objectives are determined to be addressed within the study: conducting a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation in recent years; determining the composition of the spheres (aspects) of development and indicators of systematic assessment of socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation (separately for monthly, quarterly and year-end monitoring); developing a system for visualizing the key socio-economic processes in the regions of Russia. Considering earlier assessments of crisis effects in the regions of the Russian Federation, the hypothesis was formulated that inequality and divergence of directions of socio-economic development between different regions of the Russian Federation have significantly increased in recent years. The results achieved are as follows: examples of design of systematic monitoring of socio-economic indicators in the context of the subjects of the Russian Federation were given; indicators for the establishment of regular monitoring of socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation were selected; proposals on the publication format, structure and content of regular monitoring of socio-economic development of subjects were made; a methodology for integrated assessment of short-term dynamics of socio-economic development of subjects of the Russian Federation for monitoring and identifying crisis situations was developed; a methodology for conducting an integrated assessment of the socio-economic development level of subjects of the Russian Federation was elaborated, with the ability to track its changes over time; the peculiarities of territorial development, interregional inequality, socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation in 2019-2020 (based on annual indicators) and in 2020 and the first 8 months of 2021 (based on operational indicators) were analyzed; the basic trends of territorial development, which failed to be overcome during the crisis and post-crisis recovery, were identified, namely: the concentration of the economic and investment activity in Moscow (to the detriment of other large regions) and gradual but slow improvement in the level of socio-economic development of Russian regions; stabilization or reduction of interregional inequality indicators, convergence of the dynamics of socio-economic development of the regions with the national average. Materials for in-depth diagnostics of socio-economic development of key regions have also been prepared. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the development of a three-level monitoring system, including annual monitoring, which focuses on interregional inequality, medium-term monitoring aimed at studying the dynamics of interregional differences, and short-term monitoring focused on assessing current changes in the regions. According to the results, it can be stated that the COVID-19 crisis had only a short-term effect on territorial development in Russia. Unlike the previous crises, interregional inequality did not grow in 2020 and stabilized in 2021. At the same time, for most socio-economic indicators, the medium-term dynamics of the regions were unidirectional. The situation is somewhat worse in the regions with high socio-economic development per capita, whose economy depends on oil production. Only two regions were still showing clear signs of crisis phenomena. While the crisis in the Sakhalin Region is largely time-serving, the decline in Komi Republic is systemic and has been going on for several years (started before 2020). Given the relatively positive socio-economic dynamics after the crisis, there is a significant change in the system of inter-budgetary relations and federal support measures. Measures are being actively implemented to reduce the independence of regional administrations in determining the goals of spending inter-budget transfers (the share of transfer payments is decreasing in favor of subsidies). While this situation has little effect on regions with high fiscal capacity (and low transfers) due to the relatively small amounts of transfers they receive, then in highly subsidized regions the changes become very large-scale (up to dozens of percent of the total budget revenues) and may limit the regional initiative in the future. At the same time, the Government has launched incentives aimed at supporting breakthrough investment and projects in the regions. The shift in distribution of these financial resources towards financial and credit support changes the logic of the project formation in the regions. Almost all the funds provided are repayable, which means they must be used towards the growth of tax and non-tax revenues of the regional budgets. However, the mechanisms for allocating funds from the “infrastructure menu” measures do not take into account the actual needs of the regions and are based either on proportional distribution (budget infrastructure loans) or on previous borrowing history.
Abstract
This study focuses on the changes in the dynamics of socio-economic development and interregional inequality of the Russian regions in 2019-2020. Peculiarities of territorial [...]
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A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN CITIES IN 2015-2019
D. Zemlyanskiy, V. Chuzhenkova, A. Abdullaev, L. Kalinovskiy, V. Kulikov, D. Medvednikova, I. Shampurov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 99

Abstract
The research work is dedicated to a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2015-2019 and reflects both the current level of territorial development and the dynamics of key parameters for the period analyzed. Russian cities regularly become the subject of discussion among representatives of government authorities and the scientific community, as one of the key factors of the socio-economic development of the country as a whole. Contemporary urban scientists usually limit their studies of the current state and peculiarities of social and economic development to just a single municipality or small groups of cities. The goal of this study is to determine the main trends in the socio-economic development of Russian cities between 2015 and 2019. To achieve this goal, the following objectives were formulated: setting up a database of key socio-economic indicators of Russian cities (in the period from 2015 to 2019); a systemic review of socio-economic development trends of Russian cities; identification of main problems and resources of socio-economic development of cities; classification of the cities by the current socio-economic development level. The input data for the research work is taken from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for Municipalities (Database of Indicators of Municipalities, Rosstat), with data from ministries and departments, open sources, including analytical reports, geoinformation systems data, etc. The following research methods are used: analysis of literature and open sources, statistical analysis, econometric and GIS analysis, qualitative comparative analysis, mapping. The results are as follows: an overview of trends in the socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2010-2020 is developed; approaches and methods for assessing the socio-economic development of Russian cities are studied; a database of indicators of socio-economic development of cities for the period 2015-2019 is set up, and an analysis of the structure and features of the database is carried out; the features of socio-economic development of cities depending on population, geographical location, administrative status are studied; the key problems of socio-economic development of cities at the present stage are considered; the classification of Russian cities by socio-economic development level is proposed; a forecast of socio-economic development trends of Russian cities in the short run is made; the Atlas “Socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2015-2019” is compiled. According to the results, the key trends in the socio-economic development of cities are as follows: the preservation of substantial differentiation in terms of socio-economic development; increasing hyper-centralization of population and resources in metropolitan agglomerations; accelerating depopulation of cities; polarization of the settlement system; reduction of the population incomes and city budgets. The most important problems of socio-economic development of cities at the present stage are as follows: a shortage of demographic and migration resources for quantitative growth; slow post-industrial transformation together with a shortage of investment for the development of large and medium-sized enterprises; low level of budgetary independence and a shortage of budget funds for the implementation of development projects. The Atlas of Cities, compiled by the authors based on the results of the work, provides a detailed illustration of trends and problems, supported by an analysis of 40 key statistical properties of the socio-economic development of Russian cities. The Atlas materials will be useful in guiding competent government decisions regarding urban development. They will be helpful to executive authorities of various levels, local stakeholders, and representatives of the expert and a wide range of experts and analysts.
Abstract
The research work is dedicated to a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2015-2019 and reflects both the current level of territorial [...]
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FACTORS OF THE DEBT BURDEN IN URBAN DISTRICTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION WITH A POPULATION OF MORE THAN 100 THOUSAND PEOPLE
D. Zemlyanskiy, V. Chuzhenkova, A. Abdullaev, L. Kalinovskiy, V. Kulikov, D. Medvednikova, I. Shampurov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 98

Abstract
The study examines debt situation in 189 urban districts of Russia with more than 100 thousand inhabitants in 2015-2020 and assesses key factors determining level of budget debt. The relevance of the study is established by the fact that an overwhelming majority of large urban municipalities in Russia currently have a significant budget debt. The public debt burden significantly limits the cities’ ability to plan and finance urban projects and therefore becomes a key constraint on their development at the present stage. At the same time, the scale and dynamics of municipal debt in Russian cities remain poorly researched. The goal of the study was to identify key factors determining formation of the debt burden in the 189 largest urban districts in Russia and to assess the impact of the debt burden on the level and dynamics of their socio-economic development. The following tasks were completed: analyzing the level of municipal debt burden in the largest cities in 2015-2020 and creating a classification of large cities by the scale and dynamics of debt; determining key factors of formation of the debt burden in large urban districts and calculating their impact, as well as forecasting the debt situation of the largest centers. The analysis was carried out on the basis of the municipal debt volume and structure indicators, collected from the official portals of local administrations and data on the execution of budgets of urban districts of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). The following key research methods, among others, were used: statistical and economic analysis, mapping and GIS analysis, infographic construction methods and comparative analysis. The results of the study showed that although the country's large cities are characterized on average by a relatively favorable level of debt burden, significant differences in the debt situation between cities remain. Only 37 large urban districts had no debt at the end of the study period, while about 1/3 (53 out of 189) had a debt burden exceeding 50%, and 15% of cities are approaching its critical level. It is proved that at the present stage, municipal debt is not a real tool for the implementation of urban development projects, but is mainly directed to cover the budget deficit and fulfill basic social responsibilities by the end of the fiscal year. It has been revealed that the greatest influence on the debt situation in large cities is exerted by the factor of the city's population (the level of debt burden increases with population growth), as well as the factor of having a regional capital status (regional capitals have higher debt). The factors of the budgetary and financial situation in municipality, as well as economic factors (apart from several cities) resulted to be insignificant. The absence of high correlations of the debt burden of large urban districts with key indicators of the financial and socio-economic situation suggests a high influence of other institutional factors. It is proved that an increased level of debt burden leads to a decline in migration appeal and investment activity in large cities. The growth of debt slows down the rate of wages increase. The forecast of the debt situation in large cities showed that if the current trends persist in the next three years, even a greater deterioration in the debt situation of the country's largest centers can be expected, as well as an increase in their differentiation by debt. The measures planned for introduction in 2022 in order to limit the volume of municipal debt will have little effect and will not result in a significant reduction in the debt burden of cities. All in all, the findings of the study form a negative forecast of the development of Russian large cities for the coming years. The current situation warrants an urgent need to revise the fiscal policy and the power distribution system at the local government level towards expanding the financial and managerial capabilities of municipalities.
Abstract
The study examines debt situation in 189 urban districts of Russia with more than 100 thousand inhabitants in 2015-2020 and assesses key factors determining level of budget [...]
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Antitrust Law Enforcement in Primary And Aftermarkets
S. A.Y., M. A.I

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 97

Abstract
The aftermarkets occupy a dependent position in relation to the primary product market. The textbook examples of this kind of dependence are the car market and the service market, the printer market and the cartridge market, the shaving stick market and razor cartridge market, the markets for software products and their updates. In such cases, manufacturers in so-called primary markets may restrict competition in the aftermarkets through dealer licensing or through consumer contract terms related to warranty service. The study is relevant due to the emergence of new scenarios of anti-competitive behaviors and agreements (for example, restricting access to personal data of primary product owners – to the Big Data of a car engine’s control sensors – limits the possibility to enter the aftersales service market for new players). In this context, the Internet of Things and the digitalization of production chains give primary market participants the opportunity to control data flows and access conditions, which determines exclusive access to aftermarkets associated with the risk of monopolization. The purpose of the study is to identify the sources of anti-competitive behavior in the markets for the primary product and after-sales service (including consumables and components). The objectives of the study include: identifying the sources of antitrust law violations in the markets for the primary product and after-sales service; analyzing international and Russian antitrust practice in relation to the markets for the primary product and aftermarkets. The research methodology includes models of market analysis for various industries, quantitative methods of antitrust analysis, tools of the new institutional economic theory. The conclusions of the study describe the properties of the markets for the primary product and aftermarkets, which are significant for the antitrust regulation of such markets, and provide a theoretical justification of the need to use refined methods of quantitative analysis for the purposes of antitrust law enforcement, taking into account the specifics of the primary markets and aftermarkets.
Abstract
The aftermarkets occupy a dependent position in relation to the primary product market. The textbook examples of this kind of dependence are the car market and the service [...]
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Comparison of competition authorities’ approaches to entry barriers definition and analysis
V. Sluzhevskaya, A. Morosanova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 96

Abstract
Studying the existence and type of barriers to entry is an integral part of competition analysis conducted by antitrust authorities in different countries. As a result, competition authorities in different countries have accumulated a lot of knowledge on this matter, which can be shared between regulators to define best practices and identify the weaknesses of the approaches used. This preprint compares the approaches to defining and measuring barriers to entry used by the antitrust authorities in Russia, USA, EU, Germany, Spain and Australia, which makes it possible to identify the shortcomings of the approach used by FAS of Russia and foreign antitrust regulators. Among the shortcomings of the studied approaches, the author highlights lack of consistency in identifying entry barriers, which is exceptionally noticeable in terms of barrier level analysis. Also, the cases reviewed by competition authorities lack quantitative assessment of entry barriers, which shows the gap between the ongoing academic research and law enforcement practice. The Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia stands out in comparison to foreign competition authorities, because it often conducts only a formal definition of the entry barriers, limiting the description to a simple enumeration of market barriers or even completely skipping this part of the analysis. As a result, the Russian antitrust authority often draws unsubstantiated conclusions when assessing market entry barriers.
Abstract
Studying the existence and type of barriers to entry is an integral part of competition analysis conducted by antitrust authorities in different countries. As a result, competition [...]
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The analysis of small and medium enterprises’ (SMEs’) support, aimed at achieving sustainable development goals in the EU Countries, policy recommendations for Russia
V. Barinova, K. Demidova, A. Loginova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 95

Abstract
The Sustainable Development Goals remain relevant in times of crisis, especially such goals as eradicating poverty, inequality, ensuring economic growth, developing innovation and infrastructure. Achieving these goals is where small and medium-sized enterprises can play a key role. An analysis of the EU countries’ experience in the application of entrepreneurship support measures is of particular interest for the prompt adjustment of the Russian SME support policy, since they take into account not only short-term political and economic needs, but are aimed at achieving a long-term result - sustainable development. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the analysis of the best foreign SME support practices in terms of achieving certain indicators of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The purpose of the work is to generalize the experience of SME support in the EU in connection with the implementation of sustainable development goals. For this, the following tasks have been set: establishing links between the SME activities and the implementation of the SDGs; analysis of support for various target groups of entrepreneurs in the context of achieving SDGs 8, 9 in the EU; analysis of anti-crisis support measures in the context of achieving SDGs 8, 9 in the EU. General scientific methods are applied - generalizations, comparisons, synthesis, inductive approach. The following conclusions and results were obtained in the study: SMEs contribute greatly to value creation, development and use of innovations, promoting employment, and they are most consistent with SDGs 8, 9; the main support measures include traditional loans and guarantees, subsidies, public procurement, tax incentives, as well as digital platforms, improving the digital skills of the population, financing scientific research; support for vulnerable groups of entrepreneurs is carried out through the promotion of entrepreneurship, the development of entrepreneurial skills and culture, information and advisory support, access to financing, development of entrepreneur networks and improvement of labor legislation; development of assistive technology to access support measures; provision of premises for doing business, coaching, mentoring. Among the recommendations for the Russian practice, it is necessary to note facilitating the SME access to financial resources, promoting entrepreneurship, creating networks of entrepreneurs in areas with different specifics, training entrepreneurs and the public in digital technologies, and providing special benefits for doing business to vulnerable groups of the population. Research prospects: analysis of the Russian experience of SME support in conjunction with the SDGs and generalization of the most effective practices in order to form an effective policy.
Abstract
The Sustainable Development Goals remain relevant in times of crisis, especially such goals as eradicating poverty, inequality, ensuring economic growth, developing innovation [...]
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BRICS. Compliance Amid Global Governance System Crisis
P. Doronin, A. Ignatov, O. Kolmar

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 94

Abstract
The paper assesses the effectiveness of BRICS as a global governance institution in the time of global social-economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and escalation of political tensions in the first half of 2022. The main object of the study is the implementation of the decisions made at the BRICS summit in New Delhi in 2021. The goal of the study is to monitor and assess the BRICS compliance with the collective decisions made in the key areas such as security, macroeconomics, finance, international institutions’ reform agenda, etc. The research is relevant as it attempts to find an optimal strategy for preserving Russia’s position at the global fora in order to mitigate growing pressure over Russia’s economic and political system. The ongoing study will enable an objective assessment of the role BRICS plays in the context of realizing Russia's interests in key areas - macroeconomic policy, healthcare, energy sector, etc. The study is based on the methodology of comparative analysis of the effectiveness of international institutions, content analysis and criterial selection method. The authors conclude that in the crisis situation, BRICS has maintained adherence to the key decisions made in top-priority spheres and demonstrated high solidarity amid growing tensions between Russia and the Western countries, which signifies the value of the BRICS role in meeting Russia’s strategic priorities and keeping the country’s influence in the global politics
Abstract
The paper assesses the effectiveness of BRICS as a global governance institution in the time of global social-economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and escalation [...]
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Regional policy in the countries of the world: a comparative analysis
V. Akimova, S. Zemtsov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 93

Abstract
ocio-economic development of countries and regions is historically uneven. But in some cases, too much territorial inequality can lead to the collapse of the state. In constantly changing conditions, it is necessary to use the spatial policy experience of the most successful countries. The conclusions obtained in the work will make it possible to offer recommendations for updating methodological approaches to the development of strategic documents in the field of regional policy, considering the global best practices. The goal of the study is to analyze and summarize foreign experience in implementing regional policies, including the conditions of uncertainty (COVID-19 pandemic). Research methods and methodology: comparative analysis, system analysis, qualitative analysis, historical and economic analysis. Scientific novelty: We conducted a comprehensive qualitative and value-content analysis of the best regional policy practices in Europe and North America, as well as the experience of developing countries, including India, China and Brazil. Separately, the strategies of regional policy in the context of the pandemic are highlighted. Results: Equalizing and stimulating regional policy is generally typical for the EU and Poland; for Germany - exclusively equalizing. France and the United States choose system-wide, equalizing (stimulating) policy, while the United Kingdom prefers system-wide selective. Japan, in addition to the system-wide equalizing (stimulating) policy, adds a restraining policy. Selective polarized regional policy is typical for the Republic of Korea. China, India and Brazil have the same direction of regional policy, which indicates similar problems of regional development of the BRICS member states. These are developing countries with large territories, with a similar level of economic development and a high level of regional development. The direction of the regional policy of this group is system-wide, equalizing (selective + restraining).
Abstract
ocio-economic development of countries and regions is historically uneven. But in some cases, too much territorial inequality can lead to the collapse of the state. In constantly [...]
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Preferential policies around the world: success stories
V. Akimova, S. Zemtsov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 92

Abstract
In the context of external shocks, technological and other changes, it is becoming increasingly relevant to study tools that stimulate the development of entrepreneurship as an internal source of economic growth. One such common tool is the creation of territories with preferential (special) conditions for doing business. Here the developed and developing countries use different approaches, depending on the institutional environment and the financial capabilities of countries and regions. The goal of the study is to identify and systematize the best practices for creating preferential regimes in developed and developing countries of the world. Research methods and methodology: comparative analysis, system analysis, qualitative analysis, historical and economic analysis. Scientific novelty: This is the first attempt at systematization and comparison of the best practices for the introduction of preferential regimes in developed and developing countries in order to develop small and medium-sized businesses. The scientific novelty of the study is based on a comprehensive, multidimensional analysis of approaches to the analysis of various types of preferential regimes. Results: In the United States, among the key areas for creating preferential regimes, we have identified the following: foreign trade zones, entrepreneurial zones in depressed urban and rural areas and enhanced opportunity zones, the establishment of entrepreneurial communities. In the UK, they initially took the path of organizing business zones in declining former industrial territories. In 2012, the efforts were focused on sectoral approach to the development of key sectors of the economy, such as financial services, digital and creative industries, high-tech engineering, and green energy. After 2017, Opportunity Zones were added to the Enterprise Zones, which are aimed at stimulating regional growth through large capital investments. Great Britain started to create so-called free ports with simplified customs procedures and other benefits. Germany followed suite, focusing on duty-free imports and re-exports. An interesting innovation in Germany was the creation of digital hubs. The hubs are aimed at supporting startups through business accelerators. Of particular importance for use in the Russian realities is the experience of developing countries, BRICS partners such as China and India. Chinese free economic zones are an example of the most successful preferential territories. A distinctive feature of the FEZ policy in China is the autonomy of local administrations from the central government in decision-making regarding the establishment of preferential trade regimes and the establishment of companies with foreign participation, as well as regarding the conduct of foreign trade activities. Indian SEZs were fundamentally different: significantly smaller in physical size and more open to both public and private capital
Abstract
In the context of external shocks, technological and other changes, it is becoming increasingly relevant to study tools that stimulate the development of entrepreneurship [...]
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New global development conditions of international economic relations: reforming directions
A. Pakhomov, K. Bagdasaryan

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 91

Abstract
The study analyzes the latest trends in the reform of international economic relations, especially global trade and capital flows worldwide. It also analyzes the opportunities and limitations of Russia’s participation in international economic reform processes in the interests of the national economy and foreign trade. The main purpose of the study is to identify emerging trends in global economy and international relations at the present stage and define the opportunities for Russia’s participation in the new processes. The main objectives of the study are: a) to identify the main factors and areas of transformation of international economic relations; b) to determine possible directions of reforming various sectors of the global economy; c) to study potential shifts in the balance of power and interests in the global economy at different levels - i.e. country, region and global; d) to identify opportunities and limitations for the Russian Federation to participate in the processes of transformation of international economic relations with regard to national interests; e) to reveal the main directions of Russia’s interaction with various groups of countries and international organizations under the new conditions. Special attention is given to the reform of global value chains, transformation of world trade and shifts in the balance of power in international economic relations. Finally, the study provides an expert assessment of the problem of maintaining the market status of the Russian economy and practical recommendations for a possible solution of this issue
Abstract
The study analyzes the latest trends in the reform of international economic relations, especially global trade and capital flows worldwide. It also analyzes the opportunities [...]
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BEHAVIORAL STRATEGIES OF THE RUSSIAN POPULATION TO PROTECT ITS HEALTH: NEW CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
P. A.N., G. I.A., Z. N.V.

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 90

Abstract
The scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center of Socio-Political Monitoring of the School of Public Policy and Management at RANEPA Institute for Social Sciences. The relevance of the study: Preserving and strengthening the health of the population is a priority task for the Russian state. Currently, this problem is acquiring special significance in the context of changes in the social reality associated with a challenging COVID-19 pandemic situation. The purpose of the study is to analyze the behavioral strategies of the population related to maintaining and improving their health. The objectives of the study are related to assessing the degree of influence of the main behavioral factors on the health and social well-being of the citizens, with an assessment of the measures taken by the state to form behavioral strategies of the population aimed at protecting and strengthening their health. The subject of the study is the prevalence of various types of behavioral strategies and their impact on the health status and social well-being of representatives of different socio-demographic groups and strata. Methods: The main source of empirical information was the all-Russian sociological survey of the population, conducted on April 8-19, 2021 using the method of formalized personal interviews at the respondents’ place of residence. 1,500 people aged 18 and over were interviewed in 30 regions of the Russian Federation. Results: The study records an increase in the people’s positive self-perception of their health over the past two decades; at the same time, the respondents are susceptible to a wide range of diseases. There is an increase in demand for qualified medical care in case of illness; however, self-medication remains widespread, which can negatively affect people's health. The people’s actual behavior often does not correspond to their ideas about a healthy lifestyle. Russians do not have a well-developed culture of healthy lifestyles; they lack the habit of daily positive activities to maintain and strengthen their health. In general, the results of the study show insufficiency of the measures taken by the state to create conditions for strengthening the public health. Conclusions. The problems identified show the need to increase the availability of medical care, improve health awareness of the public, expand incentives for self-preservation and health promotion. Scientific novelty. The value of this study lies in obtaining up-to-date information on the priorities of the Russian citizens, their self-preservation behavior in a force majeure situation of an epidemiological crisis and its consequences, which can contribute to promoting managerial decisions in healthcare and social development that are adequate to the needs of the population.
Abstract
The scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center of Socio-Political Monitoring of the School of Public Policy and Management at RANEPA Institute for [...]
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HISTORICAL ROOTS OF THE PERCEPTION OF RUSSIA IN FRANCE PUBLIC OPINION
N. Tanshina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 89

Abstract
Relevance of the study. The attitude towards the Russian Federation in the modern world is highly complex and contradictory. This is due, in part, ’to the traditional perception of Russia in the west in the context of the binary “Friend-or-Foe” juxtaposition. Studying the origins of these processes is undoubtedly relevant. The object of the study is the perception of Russia in the public opinion of France in the XIX century, and the development of the image of Russia in the public opinion of France during the XIX - XXI centuries. The purpose of the study is to examine the historical roots of the perception of Russia in the public opinion of France and in the French intellectual circles, based on the analysis of the works of French authors of the 1840s-1880s, and to compare this image with modern ideas about Russia in the French intellectual and political circles. The study was conducted in 2021 as part of the RANEPA research work. Research method or methodology: The research involves the use of an interdisciplinary synthesis methodology based on classical historical analysis. The study of stereotypes of mutual perception and the reconstruction of the “image of the Other” require applying the methodology of imagological research. In addition, the study of political ideology involves applying the methodology of intellectual history and the history of ideas. The results of the study: using the example of the analysis of the image of Russia formed in the public opinion of France in the XIX - XX centuries, the authors attempt to: - identify the main circle of authors writing about Russia in the period under review, to determine the main circle of sources and to classify them; - study the works about Russia written in the 1840s, after the publication of the book by Astolphe de Custine; - analyze the transformation of the view of Russia on the eve and during the Crimean War (1853-1856); - study the changes in the perception of Russia after the Crimean War, given the improvement of Franco-Russian relations in the years preceding the conclusion of the Franco-Russian Union.
Abstract
Relevance of the study. The attitude towards the Russian Federation in the modern world is highly complex and contradictory. This is due, in part, ’to the traditional [...]
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Accentuation of the Ormuri-Parachi languages (Iranian group) and its Indo-European origin
A. Trofimov, A. Kasyan, I. Egorov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 88

Abstract
Subject. The article examines the system of accentuation of the minor Iranian languages, Parachi and Ormuri, and its connection with the Pashto system. Purpose. Etymological description of the Parachi and Ormuri accent systems. Relevance. Importance of Iranian data for Indo-European reconstruction. Novelty. First, the authors give a historical review of existing studies, which establish the archaic character of accentuation of both Pashto and Parachi-Ormuri, and then, based primarily on the research of V. A. Dybo and V. A. Efimov, a list of lexical etymological connections between these languages is compiled, which allows us to indicate the place of the original Proto-Iranian stress. Methods. Etymological, lexicographic. Results. The list shows that the accent system in Ormuri-Parachi languages corresponds in detail to the one described for Pashto: traces of baritonesis and oxytones are preserved in two- and three-syllable nouns, in numerals and verbs; accent in derivative names is placed “by contrast”, of the same type that is established for the Vedic language. Moreover, a number of similarities under consideration are exclusive to Eastern Iranian languages, and in general, there are even more lexical and morphological isoglosses between Parachi and Ormuri and Eastern Iranian languages. Findings. The two factors described above indicate that Parachi and Ormuri, according to the traditional classification, are more likely to be closely related to the South-Eastern Iranian languages, primarily Pashto and, possibly, Mundjan and Yidga. Recommendations. It is desirable to collect new field data on Parachi and Ormuri.
Abstract
Subject. The article examines the system of accentuation of the minor Iranian languages, Parachi and Ormuri, and its connection with the Pashto system. Purpose. [...]
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CUSTOMER FOCUS AND EFFICIENCY OF PUBLIC SERVICE PROVIDERS
T. Maleva, D. Rogozin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 87

Abstract
Implementing the goals related to the modernization of the sphere of public services requires revising the reform stages that have been completed and assessing its current results. This study proposes an integrated approach to the development of a methodology for such an assessment, as well as a communication environment that creates an effective demand for the data obtained. The research objective is to develop and test a methodology for assessing the customer focus of government institutions. The tasks are: to formulate a problem, build a research methodology, form an array of data, assess the general perception of the public services sector by the respondents, identify the most problematic sectors of public services in the public perception, and analyze the respondents’ proposals. The research methodology is based on analytical procedures related to the collection and processing of primary and secondary data, conducting opinion polls and interpreting research results. The study is aimed at identifying the public perception of the level of customer focus of public service providers and government agencies, which determines the relevance of this work. The object of the research is the socio-economic situation of the population of Russia. The subject of the research is the satisfaction of the public with the quality and procedure for the provision of public services. The survey was conducted on March 23-27, 2021 on a non-random river sample. In total, 2110 people were interviewed. The sample is not representative and does not represent the population of Russia; however, it allows us to formulate significant hypotheses and highlight the characteristic features of the perception of the quality of public services by various social groups. The results of the study show that the public has a generally positive attitude towards public services: the maximum value of the Index for assessing the quality of public services reveals the top three (migration registration services, obtaining personal vehicle documents, medicine). Nevertheless, the high assessment of the quality of medical services contradicts the data of other surveys that state the Russians’ critical attitude towards the healthcare sector. Approval of the depersonalization of the service provider in areas such as education and health deserves in-depth study.
Abstract
Implementing the goals related to the modernization of the sphere of public services requires revising the reform stages that have been completed and assessing its current [...]
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Relevance Assessment of Long-Term Care Formats in Russia
K. Manuilskaya, O. Solodovnikova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 86

Abstract
The paper is based on the findings of the research work “The Elderly People’s Needs for the New Type of Social Housing: Perception, Assessment And Expectations”, conducted by the team of the Field Research Center of the RANEPA Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting in 2021. The work is an extension of the last year’s project and includes a systematic review of current foreign literature on aging, long-term care, and the analysis of the results of an all-Russian telephone survey. Currently, the main approach in long-term care is the concept of “aging at home”. However, the concept of “home” and living space is considered quite broadly and is not limited to the formal dwelling. The 2020 research work resulted in the development of the concept of a “new type of social home”, which can apply both to the design of new residential compounds and to renovation or adaptation of an existing residential compound and social infrastructure to the needs of the older generation. The implementation of any concept should be preceded by an assessment of its relevance and population demand. That was the aim of this year’s telephone survey, the results of which are presented in the paper, and may be useful for scientific and methodological support of programs and strategies in the field of aging and old age, for the formation of state policy in the field of social protection of the elderly, as well as for the development of specific social policy directions, measures and mechanisms
Abstract
The paper is based on the findings of the research work “The Elderly People’s Needs for the New Type of Social Housing: Perception, Assessment And Expectations”, [...]
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Excess mortality in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: regional analysis
S. Shcherbov, S. Shulgin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 85

Abstract
One of the most important tasks for assessing the damage from a pandemic is the assessment of human losses resulting from the disease. As a rule, it is rather difficult to estimate the direct number of deaths from COVID-19, due to both the methodological difficulties in assessing the causes of death and the choice of a reference point for assessing excess mortality. The existing approaches, such as comparing with the previous year or the average mortality figure over the past few years are associated with numerous problems. To get a more objective assessment of the number of deaths in the absence of a pandemic, it is necessary to use the projected number of deaths considering the age structure of the population. To assess excess mortality, this paper uses the method of constructing a demographic forecast. The baseline scenario against which excess mortality is calculated is estimated using a multi-regional demographic projection. In this paper we are using statistical data from Rosstat and the results of demographic modeling to analyze the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We compare the mortality data for 2020 with the projected number of deaths for 2020. The paper provides estimates of excess mortality in the regional context. Estimates are given both for the Russian Federation as a whole and for individual Russian regions. Estimates of excess mortality are also provided for separately for men and women and older age groups.
Abstract
One of the most important tasks for assessing the damage from a pandemic is the assessment of human losses resulting from the disease. As a rule, it is rather difficult [...]
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Structural breaks in cointegration models
A. Skrobotov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 84

Abstract
This review discusses methods of testing for a cointegration in a time series in the presence of structural breaks. The review covers a large number of recently developed testing methods based on both one equation and multiple equation frameworks. In addition, various methods for estimating the dating of break dates and constructing of their confidence intervals are presented. In addition, nonlinear cointegration methods with regime swithings are considered
Abstract
This review discusses methods of testing for a cointegration in a time series in the presence of structural breaks. The review covers a large number of recently developed testing [...]
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Analysis of the effect of e-commerce increase on inflation
A. Grebenkina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 83

Abstract
The anti-pandemic restrictions of recent years fueled an explosive growth of e-commerce in goods and services in Russia and worldwide. Therefore, the issue of macroeconomic consequences of the process of e-commerce growth is relevant. The subject of this research is economic transformation under the influence of the spread of e-commerce. The study aims to identify key theoretical mechanisms of how development of e-commerce influences main economic indicators, including inflation. It is based on the methods of generalization, systematization, descriptive and graphical analysis. According to the results of the study, e-commerce most notably influences aggregate factor productivity, the cost of production factors, consumer welfare, international trade volume and the cost of information for consumers. The study concludes that e-commerce causes predominantly downward pressure on prices and inflation, regardless of the mechanism of influence, because of a decrease in production and transport costs, reduction in the corporate monopoly power, and better product variety. This conclusion is also confirmed by some empirical countrywide studies. The scientific novelty of the research lies in systematization of the channels via which e-commerce influences various spheres of the economy. The study recommends considering the factor of downward pressure while conducting Russian monetary policy in the condition of continued e-commerce spread. A promising area of further research is the empirical verification of identified theoretical mechanisms of influence based on the data on e-commerce development in Russian regions.
Abstract
The anti-pandemic restrictions of recent years fueled an explosive growth of e-commerce in goods and services in Russia and worldwide. Therefore, the issue of macroeconomic [...]
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Political Kuznets curve: the effect of democratization and collective action on income distribution
I. Matveev, I. Konovalov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 82

Abstract
Economic inequality is often portrayed as an objective fact that can only be changed by redistributive policies. This leads economists to link inequality to other strictly economic factors – first and foremost, economic growth. This approach is based on Simon Kuznets’ famous hypothesis on the association between growth and inequality. This association has long been treated as economic in nature: after a certain level of economic development is reached, inequality begins to decline. However, in this paper, we deal with theories that refuse to consider inequality to be a purely economic phenomenon. We focus on Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson’s model that indicates the Kuznets curve having a political nature. This model treats inequality as a result of the conflict between masses and elites, and suggests searching for a strategic compromise by building democratic institutions. We investigate the model’s assumptions and through studying empirical works we indicate possible ways to advance Acemoglu and Robinson’s theory. We conclude that the model’s basic structure is sound, however, its development requires detailed case studies, not just general econometric analysis. We also claim that Acemoglu and Robinson’s model should involve a more nuanced understanding of the causes and effects of collective action both before and after democratization
Abstract
Economic inequality is often portrayed as an objective fact that can only be changed by redistributive policies. This leads economists to link inequality to other strictly [...]
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Kokovtsov V.N.: life and work
B. Akatovich

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 81

Abstract
This work describes life and activity of Vladimir Nikolaevich Kokovtsov, prime-minister (1911-1914) and minister of finance (1904-1905, 1906-1914) of the Russian Empire. In the history of the Russian Empire, of the USSR and of the Russian Federation, Kokovtsov was the only statesman to combine the position of minister of finance and of prime-minister. Though there are a number of works and several PhD theses devoted to Kokovtsov – a key actor of his time, a general evaluation of his personality and his influence on the economic development of Russia in the beginning of the 20th century is yet to be made. Filling this gap is the main goal of this work. The object of investigation is Kokovtsov’s political biography, his economic and financial policy, and his efforts to reasonably limit military expenditures. The work is based on both personal materials left by Vladimir Kokovtsov (memoirs, letters), and official documents. Several archived materials – memos on financial matters of military defense made up by Kokovtsov – are published for the first time. The author verifies authenticity of the sources and confirms or refutes some facts presented by Kokovtsov using an array of modern methods of historical science including the principle of historicism, principle of classification, comparative-historical method, and some others. Beyond doubt, Vladimir Nikolaevich Kokovtsov was an outstanding statesman. He was not a politician in the traditional sense. On the contrary, he served his country as an “honest bureaucrat”. Steadfast observation of laws, honesty, efficient financial policy, love for Russia – all these characteristics describe his personality
Abstract
This work describes life and activity of Vladimir Nikolaevich Kokovtsov, prime-minister (1911-1914) and minister of finance (1904-1905, 1906-1914) of the Russian Empire. [...]
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE HIGH-LEVEL STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS
M. Dmitriev, . V.B.Krapil

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 80

Abstract
The study analyzes the practice of strategic planning in the Russian Federation. The key goal of the study is to analyze the implementation results of strategic documents prepared by various institutions, and to compare them with the implementation results of other top-level strategic documents in the context of evolution of the institutional framework of strategic planning in Russia over the past two decades. The study uses methods of analysis of the implementation results of strategic planning documents and information on the implementation of reforms in the public administration system. The authors use standard expert assessments and official government information to evaluate and compare the results of different types of top-level strategic documents. The results of the study present a methodology for collecting information on the implementation results of top-level strategic documents, a methodology for comparing the implementation results for different kinds of strategic documents. They allow us to identify key institutional problems in the existing strategic planning system and to develop recommendations for improving the institutional component in the strategic planning system. Scientific novelty of the study is based on the analysis of institutional strategic planning problems, produced using the findings of the study of implementation results of previously adopted top-level strategies. The results of the study can be used in preparing future top-level strategic documents
Abstract
The study analyzes the practice of strategic planning in the Russian Federation. The key goal of the study is to analyze the implementation results of strategic documents [...]
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTER TECHNOLOGIES IN EDUCATION, SCIENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES IN FRANCE AND RUSSIA
D. Teslenko

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 79

Abstract
The study examines mechanisms of interconnection and competitive cooperation between educational, research and business structures in the territory, interaction between universities, scientific laboratories and business structures in the development of territories for the innovation and modernization of existing technologies, and the development of digital technologies. The relevance of the study is determined by the contemporary development of individual regions (territories) in different countries around the world, which use cluster technologies as part of the new industrial policy for the development of international competitiveness of individual regions and the entire country. The aim of such networks is not just development, but also the implementation and realization of various products and technologies, including information products and technologies, in a variety of areas of activity. Balanced modern territorial development, including establishment of “smart” cities, is impossible without engaging the local educational structures, companies and scientific institutions in the process. One of the most successful examples of such cooperation is the cluster policy of today’s France, which managed to create a sensible model of interaction between universities, businesses and territorial administration bodies to find successful mechanisms for coordinating efforts of highly diverse structures, directing their actions towards common goals of economic and territorial development. Such experience, adapted to the Russian reality, is highly needed today for the implementation of large-scale programs to overcome the aftermath of the crisis caused by continuing economic and political sanctions against Russia. The Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation identifies “transition to advanced digital, intelligent production technologies, robotic systems, new materials and construction methods, creation of Big Data processing systems, machine learning and artificial intelligence” as the top priority of Russia's development for 10-15 years. The main purpose of the study is to substantiate effective models, necessary and sufficient conditions of institutional and infrastructural nature supporting competitive cooperation between science, education and territorial administrations for sustainable, balanced development, creation of innovative products, training of in-demand personnel (based on the generalization of Russian and adaptation of French experience); to study and use the specific tools of interaction mechanisms, incentives for all participants of networks in competitiveness clusters – between educational and scientific units of universities; between universities and business entities, and relations of all participants with the territorial communities. The following main fundamental and applied problems are addressed within the research: - Comparative analysis of the relationship between science, education and territorial administrations at the macroeconomic level; identification of the influence of education and science on the economic and innovative development of territories (regions); - Generalization of foreign experience in promoting digital technologies in the development of competitive cooperation of science, education and territories; - Studying the experience of France (poles of competitiveness, as well as new experimental institutions created by individual decrees of the President of France) in the formation of coordinators of development of the territory (megalopolis, metropolis, region, etc.); - Relevant issues of digital economy and digital state; - Analysis of the Russian experience in cluster development: higher educational institutions, scientific research, business, public administration (innovation clusters of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and industrial clusters of the Ministry of Industry and Trade), and the models of their interaction, identifying positive and negative instruments; - Development of recommendations to Russian higher educational institutions and all cluster members to expand their innovation activity in conditions of low demand for innovations; Research methods and methodology: The theoretical and methodological basis of the study are legislative and regulatory documents of the Russian Federation, European countries, international organizations in the field of education and science, cluster initiatives, scientific articles and monographs of modern French and Russian scientists, materials of scientific conferences, as well as a comparative analysis of international databases of key indicators in scientific research, online education, reports of international organizations. Methods of international comparative analysis. Methods of comparative analysis of socio-economic information. Methodology of comparative analysis of educational systems of different countries, taking into account their economic development level. Statistical analysis of regional and territorial development data in the field of education and innovations. Databases used: international statistics, Rosstat statistical compilations “Regions of Russia”, “Tekhuspekh” (Tech Success) rating of innovation-driven companies of Russia, HSE rating of innovation development of the Russian regions, reviews by rating agencies, data from the Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovation of the French Republic, National Statistics Institute of France, statistical collections of Eurostat, etc. This research is implemented jointly with scientists of RANEPA partner university - University of Côte d'Azur, the coordinating center of territorial development of Metropolis Côte d'Azur in France. The results of this research can be used to the benefit of: a) RANEPA and other Russian higher education institutions interested in implementing international educational and research programs; b) Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, c) Rossotrudnichestvo; d) Federal Service for Supervision in Education and Science (Rosobrnadzor) for: - generalizing foreign experience of the interconnection between science, education, business and territorial administrations; - analyzing the Russian experience of new industrial policy: higher education institutions, scientific research, business and state administration; - produce recommendations to Russian higher educational institutions to expand innovation activity given the low demand for innovation. Recommendations on adapting the most successful practices for enhancing the competitiveness of universities in the digital revolution era.
Abstract
The study examines mechanisms of interconnection and competitive cooperation between educational, research and business structures in the territory, interaction between [...]
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GADGETS AND COGNITIES "PROSPECTIVE ESTIMATES OF TIME WHEN USING GADGETS"
V. Ardislamov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 78

Abstract
Subject: the study is dedicated to a retrospective assessment of time intervals. Relevance: The theory of contextual change states that both attention and long-term memory are involved in estimating the length of past time intervals. However, the same manipulations on the test subjects under experimental conditions can lead to opposite effects. The probe task can either consume the resource of attention or create more short memorable events. The former should lead to a decrease in the interval estimate, and the latter to an increase. Scientific novelty: The predictions of this model have not been confirmed in the metaanalysis by its author, as well as in several studies with long (9-58 min) intervals. Methods: We conducted an experiment (N = 92) trying to establish the role of the resource of attention and long-term memory in the assessment of long time intervals. The results of the study show the assessment of time has no relationship with the cognitive load, or with the number of events remembered. However, a posteriori analysis of the data was carried out, inspired by the theory of metacognitive evaluation of the passage of time, first published in 2022. The results of a posteriori analysis showed the existence of a relationship between the estimated time and the discrepancy between the remembered events and the number of events perceived by the subjects (metacognitive component). Conclusions: based on this data, a metacognitive time estimation model is put forward and further studies are proposed to verify it.
Abstract
Subject: the study is dedicated to a retrospective assessment of time intervals. Relevance: The theory of contextual change states that both attention and long-term memory [...]
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THE PHENOMENON OF RESOCIALIZATION OF ADOLESCENTS, THAT ARE IN A DIFFICULT LIFE SITUATION, IN RUSSIAN AND FOREIGN STUDIES
I. Popova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 77

Abstract
The relevance of this research is associated with the need to study the conditions of effectiveness of the secondary socialization of adolescents in a difficult life situation, caused by the deep-rooted traumatic experience in their personal development in the process of primary socialization. This issue points to the need to solve the problems of nationwide level in terms of preventing marginalization of minors and the development of criminal behavior in adolescence. The object of the study is the specifics of modeling the conditions of resocialization of adolescents in socially vulnerable categories in the Russian and foreign scientific practice. The goal of the study is to analyze scientific approaches and developments that provide a theoretical and methodological rationale and effectiveness of practical activities to create conditions for resocialization of adolescents in difficult situations. We carried out the research based on the results of content analysis of Russian dissertation research in the period from 2000 to 2021 and foreign scientific articles dedicated to the stated problems. Research methods: analysis of information sources, content analysis of dissertation studies and scientific publications, systematization, analysis and synthesis of the information obtained. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by the assessment of the current development of the resocialization problems of socially vulnerable minors in modern Russian scientific research. This is the first time such a study is conducted in the Russian Federation. As a result, we found that the issues of juvenile resocialization are developed in the studies conducted within the framework of penitentiary pedagogy and psychology on a systemic basis. Only a few studies on this topic exist as part of the general education system. The majority (more than 60%) of Russian scientific research on juvenile resocialization covers adolescents with experience of deviant and delinquent behavior, including those sentenced to punishment. Other categories of socially vulnerable adolescents are either not covered at all, or covered within isolated precedents. Questions of resocialization of children raised in migrant families are the most difficult to study. Currently, there is a trend of substituting the term “resocialization” with such categories as “cultural adaptation” and “social integration” in relation to this group of adolescents. Based on the results obtained, the main conclusion is that the development of research on the study of resocialization of adolescents in vulnerable categories needs a focused analysis of promising directions, covering the methodology of the issue and different target groups of minors, not focusing only on the resocialization of adolescent offenders. Recommendations: to create required conditions and implement effective pedagogical activities aimed at supporting the resocialization of adolescents in socially vulnerable categories, it is necessary to disseminate among practicing education specialists the scientific developments proven by the testing and implementation results. It is necessary to stimulate the development of relevant scientific research that reveals aspects of resocialization of not only adolescents sentenced to punishment, with deviant/delinquent behavior, but also adolescents belonging to other groups of children in difficult situations (teenagers from poor families, from migrant/resettled families, children without parental care, unwatched/neglected children, victims of armed conflicts, victims of objective life circumstances, including domestic violence, parental neglect, health conditions, etc.).
Abstract
The relevance of this research is associated with the need to study the conditions of effectiveness of the secondary socialization of adolescents in a difficult life situation, [...]
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ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF RUSSIAN FIRMS EXIT TO EXPORT MARKETS WITH SELECTION EFFECTS INCLUDED
A. Knobel'

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 76

Abstract
A prerequisite for sustainable economic growth Russian economy is to increase the efficiency of enterprises. One of factors that can lead to this is the expansion of Russia's involvement in international trade. The most obvious are the consequences of the effects, related to the growth in the number of more efficient exporting companies as a result of increased international specialization. Enterprises with a positive export status, as a rule, are larger, therefore, with an increase in the level of involvement countries in international trade, production resources flow towards more productive exporting companies, which leads to an increase in the overall level economic efficiency. At the same time, under the hypothesis of learning through exports, the entry of new companies into export markets will lead to an increase in their efficiency, and hence the growth of the efficiency of the Russian economy as a whole. Thus, economic growth can be associated with three regularities: firstly, the number of exporting firms increases, and secondly, at the beginning of the export activities, according to the assumption of learning through export activity, firms that have entered the foreign market become more efficient, thirdly, exporting enterprises are becoming larger, which leads to the spillover of factors production to more efficient firms with a positive export status. This paper explores the hypothesis of learning through exports. A task is complicated by the fact that direct measurement leads to system errors. Exit to foreign markets is associated with overcoming barriers, which leads to additional costs for businesses. Benefit from this kind of activity can only firms are initially more productive, which corresponds to the selection effect. It turns out that in a simple comparison of firms with different export status, exporters will be more efficient, but it will be impossible to say what share of the effect of learning through export in this difference.
Abstract
A prerequisite for sustainable economic growth Russian economy is to increase the efficiency of enterprises. One of factors that can lead to this is the expansion of Russia's [...]
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Updating of Input-Output tables in Russia by machine learning methods
V. Potashnikov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 75

Abstract
Input-output tables are the basis for many types of analysis of the real sector, which are necessary to build a well-thought-out long-term and short-term policy. Evaluation of input-output tables is an expensive and time-consuming procedure. At the same time, national statistical agencies publish additional forecast information, which makes it possible to extend the input-output tables, for example, output and intermediate consumption by sector. The main methods of extending the RAS tables (or its modification GRAS) and Cross Entropy, use data on intermediate demand, the calculation of which requires additional time-consuming work. The use of information only for the previous period and the current period is the main disadvantage of this method. In recent decades, machine learning methods have been gaining popularity, the main advantage of which is finding relationships that can be hard to identify, for example, due to the large dimension of the task or the lack of evidence of cause-and-effect relationships. These methods have proven themselves well in all kinds of image recognition tasks, voice-to-text conversion, and so on. Currently, attempts are being made to apply machine learning methods to economic problems. The application of machine learning methods to the task of updating inputoutput tables carries a scientific novelty. The purpose of the study is to extend the input-output tables by machine learning methods. The method of extending the input-output tables using convolutional neural networks is the result of the work, as well as the forecast of the coefficients of the direct cost matrix for Russia. Conclusion: the use of input-output tables can improve the quality of forecasts of input-output tables. Recommendations: it is necessary to continue the research in this direction
Abstract
Input-output tables are the basis for many types of analysis of the real sector, which are necessary to build a well-thought-out long-term and short-term policy. Evaluation [...]
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MODELING AND FORECASTING OF THE WHOLESALE MARKET INDICATORS OF ELECTRIC POWER IN RUSSIA USING COMBINATION METHODS DATA OF DIFFERENT FREQUENCY
A. Kaukin, K. Kas'yanova, V. Kosarev, Y. Miller

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 74

Abstract
The aim of this study is to develop new methods for forecasting time series with data of different frequencies among exogenous factors; forecasting the indicators of the wholesale electricity market in Russia using methods of combining data of different frequencies, including those based on algorithms of convolutional neural networks. The structure of the work is presented in four sections. The first section analyzes methods for forecasting time series with combining data of different frequencies. The second section presents the architecture of a convolutional network that allows the use of data of different frequencies. The third section presents a price model for the wholesale electricity market using data from the Atlas of Russian Energy. The fourth section presents recommendations and main conclusions of the work.
Abstract
The aim of this study is to develop new methods for forecasting time series with data of different frequencies among exogenous factors; forecasting the indicators of the wholesale [...]
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIATION OF THE POST-SOVIET VILLAGE: SOCIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE FACTORS OF RURAL TRANSFORMATION
A. Nikulin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 73

Abstract
The social and economic differentiation in the countryside is a classic issue of agrarian sociology; however, in the post-Soviet period it was considered not only by rural sociologists, but also by agrarian economists and geographers. The object of the research is dual in nature: on the one hand, it is a number of rural regions in which the processes of social and economic differentiation were studied; on the other hand, it is a number of rural communities and rural households which undergo such processes in varying degrees. The study aims at identification of the main types of social-economic differentiation in the countryside and at describing its dynamics in different social groups of the Russian countryside. To achieve this goal, the authors consider social transformation processes in the main rural strata of the post-Soviet period, compare processes of social and economic differentiation in rural areas in various countries, and take into account gender and generational characteristics of different forms of rural differentiation
Abstract
The social and economic differentiation in the countryside is a classic issue of agrarian sociology; however, in the post-Soviet period it was considered not only by rural [...]
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INVESTMENT RISKS MANAGEMENT OF PRIVATE INVESTORS IN THE RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET
A. Abramov, A. Radygin, M. Chernova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 72

Abstract
The goal of this study is to develop a system of measures to increase investment activity and limit the risks of the private investors in the stock market. The object of research is the behavior of private investors in the formation of their individual portfolios. The research method includes analysis of Bloomberg’s historical data series on the return and risk of financial instruments, various methods for quantifying the investor's risk profile. The work features a comparative analysis of various approaches to assessing the individual risk profile of private investors based on analyzing the international experience. The current financial market regulation system is improving slowly and in many ways lags behind the changes in the stock market. The legal prerequisites for the accumulation of long-term savings by the population have not yet been created, the measures proposed by the regulator to limit investments and reduce risk exposure for certain categories of citizens cause serious debate in society. The relevance of the study is explained by a lack of theoretical and empirical studies of the specifics of individual investments in the domestic stock market, the behavior of private investors and the possibilities of risk management in asset allocation. The novelty of the study lies in adapting the best risk profiling practices for Russian private investors, identifying recommendations on asset allocation across all available time horizons, and demonstrating the benefits of diversification not only in the domestic but also in the global market. The main result of the work is the development of methodological approaches necessary to ensure that the generated individual portfolios of private investors match their risk profile. In addition, the main results of the work include the identified advantages of the portfolio approach, in terms of both reducing risks and increasing returns. A risk map of instruments available to a private investor has been compiled. We identified the basic rules and patterns for investing in the Russian market in the long term. The main conclusion of the work is that it is extremely important for the Russian investor to use both factor-based and widely diversified portfolios, as well as global diversification regardless of the risk profile and horizon. In the future, the development of our work aimed at studying private investment in various countries will contribute to the development of the institution of private investment in Russia.
Abstract
The goal of this study is to develop a system of measures to increase investment activity and limit the risks of the private investors in the stock market. The object of research [...]
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"ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF SPATIAL WEIGHT MATRIXES ON ASSESSMENTS OF REGIONAL INDICATORS»
T. Gorshkova, M. Turuntseva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 71

Abstract
The article is devoted to modeling the spatial dependence between macroeconomic indicators of Russian regions, using spatial weight matrices. The authors perform a comparative analysis of five matrices taking into account only the values of the indicators themselves in neighboring regions, without the influence of other macroeconomic series of data. The article analyzes papers that describe ways to build weighting matrices, both based only on geographic data and on economic indicators; the five matrices are applied to three models built on Russian regional data. The study is based on regional inflation and GRP data. In addition to modeling on data about all regions, spatial models were also built separately for the Western and Eastern parts of Russia. Based on the results of the study, we can conclude that for a number of GRP figures, the choice of spatial matrix significantly affects the ratio estimates and errors of in-sample forecasts. The way in which these matrices are considered in the model is of secondary importance. For regional inflation, on the contrary, the model type is more important, and most matrices give nearly identical results in each model.
Abstract
The article is devoted to modeling the spatial dependence between macroeconomic indicators of Russian regions, using spatial weight matrices. The authors perform a comparative [...]
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The research of pricing mechanisms of public procurement system in the Russian Federation
S. Belev, A. Efremov, A. Kireeva, A. Zolotareva, E. Leonov, E. Matveev, I. Sokolov, A. Komarnitskaya, O. Suchkova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 70

Abstract
This article presents the main results of research on the topic of the research of the pricing mechanisms within the public procurement system in the Russian Federation. The goal of this article is to estimate the effect of the pricing mechanism on the efficiency of public procurement system in the Russian Federation. This research examines the initial maximum contract price (IMCP) mechanism as one possible reason for persistent inefficiency of the public procurement system. The authors discuss composite auctions (in which the winner is selected based on more than just price criteria) in the procurement of the results of research and development (R&D) work in Russia. It is found that unscrupulous customers can collude with suppliers to manipulate (overstate) the IMCP and restrict competition, which results in a higher final contract price and losses to the state budget. Using the metric of interaction frequency, we identified suppliers potentially affiliated with the customers. The results of econometric modeling suggest that potentially affiliated suppliers win the auctions with bids closer to the initial maximum contract price (IMCP) than independent suppliers. This result is observed regardless of specification changes and different evaluation methods. Potentially affiliated bidders have higher quality scores in contests with potentially affiliated organizers. At the same time, independent participants receive lower scores in such auctions. Therefore, a potentially affiliated bidder can set a higher price, winning due to overstated quality criteria
Abstract
This article presents the main results of research on the topic of the research of the pricing mechanisms within the public procurement system in the Russian Federation. The [...]
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MIGRANTS FROM NEAR AND FAR ABROAD COUNTRIES IN RURAL RUSSIA: TYPES OF EMPLOYMENT AND THE INFORMAL ECONOMY
A. Nikulin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 69

Abstract
The article aims at identifying the main employment types of foreign migrants in the Russian countryside. The authors describe different employment types of migrants in the Russian agriculture and in a number of foreign countries; they also conducted a quantitative and qualitative study of the Russian agricultural sector potential for attracting foreign labor migrants, identified the regional features of labor migration to rural areas, including in the historical perspective; analyzed the types of informal economic and social relations of migrant workers with local rural communities.
Abstract
The article aims at identifying the main employment types of foreign migrants in the Russian countryside. The authors describe different employment types of migrants in the [...]
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FARMING IN RUSSIA: SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIATION AND INTEGRATION
A. Nikulin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 68

Abstract
The study aims at systematization of the trends in the differentiation and integration of social-economic practices typical for Russian farmers. The authors identify prospects and limitations of such processes including based on the results of the empirical studies conducted in key agricultural regions of the Russian Federation. The research data collected during the field case studies allow identifying the main social-economic strata of farms, describing the types of their economic practices, and analyzing alternative directions of their social and regional differentiation and integration.
Abstract
The study aims at systematization of the trends in the differentiation and integration of social-economic practices typical for Russian farmers. The authors identify prospects [...]
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Updating of Input-Output tables in Russia by machine learning methods
V. Potashnikov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 67

Abstract
Relevance: Input-output tables are the basis for many types of analysis of the real sector, which are necessary to build a well-thought-out long-term and short-term policy. Evaluation of input-output tables is an expensive and time-consuming procedure. At the same time, national statistical agencies publish additional forecast information, which makes it possible to extend the input-output tables, for example, output and intermediate consumption by sector. The main methods of extending the RAS tables (or its modification GRAS) and Cross Entropy, use data on intermediate demand, the calculation of which requires additional time-consuming work. The use of information only for the previous period and the current period is the main disadvantage of this method. In recent decades, machine learning methods have been gaining popularity, the main advantage of which is finding relationships that can be hard to identify, for example, due to the large dimension of the task or the lack of evidence of cause-and-effect relationships. These methods have proven themselves well in all kinds of image recognition tasks, voice-to-text conversion, and so on. Currently, attempts are being made to apply machine learning methods to economic problems. The application of machine learning methods to the task of updating inputoutput tables carries a scientific novelty. The purpose of the study is to extend the input-output tables by machine learning methods. The method of extending the input-output tables using convolutional neural networks is the result of the work, as well as the forecast of the coefficients of the direct cost matrix for Russia. Conclusion: the use of input-output tables can improve the quality of forecasts of input-output tables. Recommendations: it is necessary to continue the research in this direction.
Abstract
Relevance: Input-output tables are the basis for many types of analysis of the real sector, which are necessary to build a well-thought-out long-term and short-term policy. [...]
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«RESEARCH OF APPROACHES TO THE FORMATION OF UNIFIED OF INTERREGIONAL TARIFFS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNIFIED OF THE STATE TARIFF POLICY IN THE POWER INDUSTRY»
O. Mozgovaya, O. Temnaya, V. Kuznetsov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 66

Abstract
This paper presents the results of the study "Research of approaches to the consolidated interregional tariff formations implemented as part of the common state pricing policy in electricity industry”. The authors study the regional differentiation of electricity grid tariffs in Russia and reveal the principles of the consolidated interregional tariff formation. According to the results of the research, the electricity price differentiation factors occurring at the different pricing levels have been revealed. For non-household customers, the main factor of electricity price differentiation is the electricity network transmission tariff differentiation, which accounts for a high percentage of the electricity price structure. The regional differentiation between max and min electricity network tariffs could be as high as 400 to 800%. Practical recommendations for abandoning the electricity price differentiation as part of the implementation of the consolidated interregional tariff formation have been established.
Abstract
This paper presents the results of the study "Research of approaches to the consolidated interregional tariff formations implemented as part of the common state pricing [...]
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Developing the Approach to Spatial Analysis of the Distribution of Air Passenger Traffic in Russia
K. Borzykh, Y. Ponomarev, D. Radchenko, D. Salimova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 65

Abstract
Air transport accounts for the largest share of passenger turnover compared to other modes of transport, which makes it of particular importance in Russia. The strategic goals to develop the regional airport network, which are fixed by Presidential Decrees No.204 of 2018 and No.474 of 2020, as well as the recent external shock – the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, which resulted in an 85% decrease of domestic air traffic – explain the relevance of studying the factors which affect the development of regional markets for air passenger traffic. The aim of the study is to analyze the determinants of the spatial distribution of air passenger flows in Russia. This research applies a number of scientific methods, such as synthesis, analysis, induction, deduction, etc. It also entails the analysis of relevant literature and open statistical sources, and applies spatial econometrics models to take into account the geographical distribution of air passenger flows. The results of the study are conclusions about the impact of regional socioeconomic characteristics as well as spatial interdependence on the volume of air passenger traffic. The model estimates indicate that the actual distribution of regional air traffic is subject to a gravity mechanism. What is more, the spatial heterogeneity of the passenger traffic distribution has been confirmed. One of the major characteristics of the current network configuration in Russia is the pronounced star-shaped structure of air traffic: in 2009-2018 up to 95% of the total passenger traffic from the Russian regions passed through the Moscow hub, whereas the regional opportunities to generate passenger flows bypassing Moscow were limited. According to the scenario analysis, which was carried out to estimate the potential effects resulting from stimulation of air passenger traffic, the strongest effect on the air traffic is provided by stable regional economic growth. This effect becomes even more pronounced if the measure is combined with the support of air carriers through reduction of flight service costs and stimulation of consumers’ demand through subsidies. Further research is aimed at a more detailed scenario analysis of possible effects resulting from the optimization of the regional airport network in Russia.
Abstract
Air transport accounts for the largest share of passenger turnover compared to other modes of transport, which makes it of particular importance in Russia. The strategic goals [...]
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Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment models of the economics of climate change: a literature survey
A. Shumilov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 64

Abstract
This paper presents an overview of studies on numerical analysis of various kinds of uncertainties in integrated models climate and economy. Applications of uncertainty analysis techniques are considered as for deterministic models (Monte Carlo experiments, sensitivity analysis), and for stochastic models of climate and economy (stochastic dynamic programming).
Abstract
This paper presents an overview of studies on numerical analysis of various kinds of uncertainties in integrated models climate and economy. Applications of uncertainty [...]
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Mortality rate of the Russian population in 2020-2021
P. Kuznetsova, E. Seredkina, R. Khasanova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 63

Abstract
In 2020-2021, the new coronavirus pandemic significantly changed the global demographic situation. Most countries of the world faced a significant increase in mortality. The spread of COVID-19 presented the greatest challenge in recent history for the health systems, as well as the social sphere and the economy of most states and has influenced the increase in the mortality in 2020-2021 in almost every country. The objective of this study is to analyze the dynamics of population mortality in 2020-2021 (January-August) and the impact of coronavirus infection on mortality and life expectancy of the Russian population. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 by directly counting the number of deaths due to coronavirus infection has its limitations: the increase in the total number of deaths significantly exceeds the official mortality from coronavirus infection. In this regard, when determining mortality from coronavirus, indicators of excess mortality and changes in life expectancy are used. Excess mortality is one of the main indicators characterizing the direct and indirect impact of the spread of COVID-19 on the population mortality and the effectiveness of different countries’ efforts to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 pandemic. The paper analyzes the operational information on the population mortality for 8 months of 2021 and detailed data for 2020 as a whole. The authors note that the decrease in life expectancy in 2020 is associated with an increase in mortality from COVID-19, circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases, digestive diseases, external and other causes in middle and older age groups.
Abstract
In 2020-2021, the new coronavirus pandemic significantly changed the global demographic situation. Most countries of the world faced a significant increase in mortality. The [...]
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THE CONCEPT OF FREEDOM IN LIBERAL AND CONSERVATIVE POLITICAL THOUGHT AT THE TURN OF THE 19TH AND 20TH CENTURIES.
I. Budraitskis, G. Vanunts, A. Yegorova, A. Zapolskaya, G. Yudin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 61

Abstract
The subject of our research is the evolution of the concept of "freedom" in liberal political thought at the end of the 19th century – first half of the 20th century, as well as its influence on further academic discussions of "freedom" as a concept. Our main sources, therefore, are the texts by liberal, conservative as well as left-wing theorists of the period in question (Isaiah Berlin, Carl Schmitt, Edmund Burke, Max Weber, Joseph Schumpeter, Walter Benjamin) and their interconnections with the subsequent development of the liberal tradition (Jurgen Habermas, Hannah Arendt) as well as its critics (Giorgio Agamben, Judith Butler). The aim of the project was to confirm our basic hypothesis that the key transformation of the concept of "freedom" in political and social thought takes place at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries – this was the moment when liberal doctrines took shape, in which collective freedom gave way to individual freedom. Thus, our project had three objectives: 1) to trace the transformation of the notion of freedom in the liberal tradition of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, 2) to identify lines of criticism of individual freedom in conservative and leftist thought of the early twentieth century, 3) to analyze the current crisis of liberalism related to the non-democratic basis of actual political representation and to show how the notion of freedom formed in early twentieth century liberal theory has affected the institutions of modern liberal democracy. The relevance of the research is determined by the deepening crisis of liberalism in our days and the pursuit of programmatic alternatives to liberal democratic institutions. Through an analysis based primarily on the "history of concepts" method, we have described the contradictions in liberal thought associated with the form of the democratic process and its elitist content. The scientific novelty of this study lies in the fact that, for the first time in domestic political theory, an attempt was made to examine the key category of "freedom" in the liberal tradition in a broad historical and theoretical context, which made it possible to identify its contemporary understanding. We conclude that this anti-democratic and antiegalitarian element of the liberal tradition has common origins with the conservative critique of democracy of the early to mid-20th century. Since the Russian Federation's policy documents (in particular, the National Security Strategy) pay considerable attention to rethinking the relationship between individual freedoms and securing the collective freedom of the Russian people in the face of external challenges, the practical recommendation of the study is to further develop an original historical and theoretical concept of freedom that meets the contemporary conditions of our country.
Abstract
The subject of our research is the evolution of the concept of "freedom" in liberal political thought at the end of the 19th century – first half of the 20th [...]
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ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES (INCLUDING EPIDEMICS COVID-19) TO ACHIEVE THE NATIONAL GOAL OF INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCY IN RUSSIA
Y. Papanova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 62
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FIXING OR PERSPECTIVE MODELING SOCIAL RITUAL? CONSTRUCTING A NEW ETHICS IN HOMING BY JOHN TOWLER
M. Reutin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 60

Abstract
This work consists of two chapters and focuses on the formation of a new bourgeois ethics within the framework of the medieval mentality. This process is considered on the material of German folk preachers of the first half of the 14th century. The personalities of the preachers (16 names in total) are studied in Chapter 1; Chapter 2 contains an analysis of their doctrine, taken in its integral form. This teaching is based on Neoplatonist emanationism, according to which God is present in man as his image, a “spark”, a “synteresis”. God reveals himself in man's actions and in all his outward manifestations, so that man is basically an instrument through which God's actions are carried out. This is the “auto-determination” of man, where he is not grounded in church rituals and affiliation to particular social institutions, but in the objective dynamics unfolding in him. The paper concludes with an attempt at a new reading of Max Weber's study “Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism”
Abstract
This work consists of two chapters and focuses on the formation of a new bourgeois ethics within the framework of the medieval mentality. This process is considered on the [...]
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DIRECTIONS AND FACTORS OF THE PLANNED EDUCATIONAL MIGRATION OF SCHOOLCHILDREN IN 9 AND 11 GRADES: RESULTS OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
D. Loginov, E. Semionova, G. Tokareva, I. Yakovlev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 59

Abstract
The uneven territorial and population development of the educational infrastructure and the labor market, the differentiation of educational aspirations and resource capabilities of different social groups, the possibility of enrolment to educational organizations in different regions of Russia based on the examination results explain the relevance of researching the scale, motives, directions and restrictions of educational migration of the Russian school graduates. It is important to find out what groups of modern youth and their families develop the attitudes towards educational migration, what resources are required to implement these attitudes, which directions of actual and potential educational migration in the context of regions and types of settlements there are. Revealing stable routes of educational migration of the Russian youth is an urgent research problem. The main goal of this work is to determine the directions and factors of the planned educational migration of the 9th and 11th grade schoolchildren for receiving secondary vocational and higher education, on the basis of sociological data. The objectives of the study are, in particular, to identify the grounds for demand by households with schoolchildren in graduation grades to receive secondary vocational and higher education outside the settlement or region of current residence; identification of the motives for obtaining education outside the settlement or region of current residence; analysis of the educational trajectories of schoolchildren in graduation grades involving educational migration. The methodology of sociological research involves the use of a combined quantitative and qualitative toolkit, carried out using specially developed field documents. The main findings of the study are as follows: it was discovered that the parents are divided into two groups of comparable size – those inclined towards educational migration (56%) and those planning to receive vocational education in the settlement of residence; the composition of these groups varied significantly depending on the settlement types and educational aspirations; to a large extent, when planning to receive secondary vocational education and higher education, the younger generation repeats the educational trajectory of their parents, reproducing the family status. The research results can be used in the interests of public education authorities to assess the consequences of educational migration for the socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation.
Abstract
The uneven territorial and population development of the educational infrastructure and the labor market, the differentiation of educational aspirations and resource capabilities [...]
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REFORM OF SCHOOL EDUCATION OF THE PREREVOLUTIONARY (1917) PERIOD: LANGUAGES OF THE PEOPLES OF RUSSIA
O. Artemenko, M. Kuzmin, S. Anzorova, T. Borgoyakova, P. Gasanova, A. Subrakov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 58

Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by an examination of the processes of reforming the education system in the Russian Empire between 1726 and 1917, which was carried out with the aim of modernizing the society and overcoming universal illiteracy. It is the degree of development of the education system that ensures the level of literacy, education of the population, forms certain personality qualities, which contributes to the state’s economic development and social growth. In this context, issues related to organizing education for the peoples of the Russian Empire, which was implemented within the framework of the doctrine of State integrity of a multinational State, deserve special attention in a multi-ethnic state, historically formed not by migrants but by local residents. Only Russia has such experience, and it needs to be studied. Subject of study. Reform of the education system from 1726 to 1917. The purpose of the study. Study of the experience of the Russian Empire in organizing educational activities aimed at forming interethnic harmony, preserving the integrity of a multinational state. Research tasks. Identification and description of periods of educational reform in the Russian Empire. Research methods. In solving specific research problems, comparative historical, biographical, synchronous, and diachronic methods were used. Sources of information. The implementation of the research tasks required a comprehensive identification of both archival and published sources: in the Russian State Historical Archive (RGIA), in the State Archive of the Russian Federation (GARF). In the Russian State Library (RGB), the authors reviewed the holdings of the Ministry of Education and its Departments, verbatim reports of the State Duma, personal funds of the Ministers of Education (V.G. Glazov, Peter M. von Kaufmann, I.I. Tolstoy, A.N. Schwartz). In the scientific archive of the Russian Academy of Education (RAO), documents were revealed in the collection of historical documents and the legacy of prominent teachers, public figures V.P. Vakhterov, N.V. Chekhov and others. Results of the study. The materials revealed and described are introduced into scientific circulation in a systematic way for the first time. They help restore the stages of formation 6 of the education system in the Russian Empire and the results of its reform. The systematization of these diverse sources, complementing and clarifying each other, made it possible to restore a fairly solid picture of the formation of public education in the Russian Empire. The sources described contain valuable material for studying the development of education in the pre-revolutionary period, reveal the experience of the state in the formation of interethnic harmony, preserving the integrity of a multinational state. Findings of the study. The need to improve the literacy and education of the population of the state determines the economic, political, socio-cultural development of a multinational society. The effectiveness of modernization is more dependent on, and determined by, reforms in education, in the formation of a certain type of personality, which must be considered in a historical context. The study was conducted in 2021 by the employees of the Research Center for National Education Problems of the RANEPA Federal Institute for the Development of Education (FIRO).
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by an examination of the processes of reforming the education system in the Russian Empire between 1726 and 1917, which was carried [...]
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USING GOOGLE TRENDS FOR PREDICTIONS: REVIEW AND APPLICATIONS FOR RETAIL SALES FORECASTING
A. Zubarev, Y. Golovanova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 57

Abstract
Due to the growing popularity of the Internet, many purchases are made in online stores. The Google Trends service collects data based on user requests and breaks them down into categories. In this paper, we review the existing forecasting methods using this service, and make an attempt to predict the dynamics of retail sales using macroeconomic variables and categories in Google Trends corresponding to various commodity groups of food and non-food products. For each type of retail, we build the best predictive models from macroeconomic variables and try to improve them by adding trends.
Abstract
Due to the growing popularity of the Internet, many purchases are made in online stores. The Google Trends service collects data based on user requests and breaks them down [...]
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Financial Sector Efficiency as a Factor maximizing long-term economic growth rates
Y. Danilov, D. Pivovarov, I. Davydov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 56

Abstract
The paper analyzes various concepts of financial sector efficiency, and, based on this analysis, the authors established financial sector indicators that are the most appropriate for empirical research and for the establishment of key performance indicators for financial regulators. The authors develop a set of performance indicators, based on which they analyze changes in various aspects of efficiency of the Russian financial sector, including its usefulness for the investment recipients and for households, as the main suppliers of investment resources. Based on the Russian data, empirical studies of the impact of efficiency on economic growth have been conducted. Proposals for the construction of a set of key performance indicators that evaluate the performance of social and economic functions by the financial sector, its participation in the achievement of strategic national objectives and the level of financial development are formulated.
Abstract
The paper analyzes various concepts of financial sector efficiency, and, based on this analysis, the authors established financial sector indicators that are the most appropriate [...]
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Main Approaches to the Use of Time-Varying Parameter Models in Macroeconomic Modeling
M. Kazakova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 55

Abstract
Time-varying parameter models have been widely spread in macroeconomic studies carried out over the past 20 years. Following the seminal papers in this field, various authors began to apply such models to analyze the time-varying behavior of such macroeconomic parameters as volatility, long-term economic growth, trend inflation, the persistence of inflation and oil prices, as well as the dependence of the main macroeconomic variables on oil prices. This review provides a methodological basis for using time-varying parameter models as one of the underlying tools of macroeconomic modeling and forecasting, as such models allow taking into account temporary changes in the relationships between different variables.
Abstract
Time-varying parameter models have been widely spread in macroeconomic studies carried out over the past 20 years. Following the seminal papers in this field, various authors [...]
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"PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE URBAN RESIDENTS' BEHAVIOR IN A PANDEMIC SITUATION"
N. Loginov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 54

Abstract
Enormous amounts of empirical facts have been gathered regarding the content and structure of mental models in astronomy, biology, psychology, and so on. Mental models, or their individual parts (beliefs), are usually understood as stable domain-specific representations of a specific group of phenomena. A typical study using response time analysis includes demonstrating a sequence of statements that must be evaluated by the respondents as true or false. A stable experimental result is an increase in response time to statements that conflict with scientific and naive theories, in comparison to coherent statements. Relevance: the study was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic (20202021), so we used a set of semantically related statements about the mechanisms of coronavirus infection, protective measures, etc. Scientific novelty: in this study, we considered the stability factor of the naive representations studied, presenting each statement multiple times. In predecessor studies, statements were presented only once. Research goal: To determine whether reaction time can serve as an indicator of the consistency of strong beliefs about a particular set of phenomena. This study tested the hypothesis that response time would be shorter for coherent answers to semantically related statements in comparison to incoherent answers. The study was conducted online in spring-summer 2020 and winter 2021. Methods: the participants evaluated pairs of statements regarding COVID-19 and their behavior during pandemic conditions, in randomized order. The results from two series of an online survey confirmed this hypothesis and a simple theoretical model behind it. The delta reaction times for coherent statements are lower than for incoherent ones. Findings: no differences were found in the RT of “yes” and “no” responses; we assume that the delta reaction times have a semantic origin.
Abstract
Enormous amounts of empirical facts have been gathered regarding the content and structure of mental models in astronomy, biology, psychology, and so on. Mental models, or [...]
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APPROACHES TO STUDYING THE IMPACT OF CONSUMER DEMAND ON FORMATION OF INCENTIVES TO THE TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF COMPANIES
A. Zhemkova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 53

Abstract
The paper assesses the impact of the expected market size on the stimulation of the technological development of Russian durable goods manufacturing companies. The work is structured as follows: the first chapter examines theoretical foundations of analyzing the impact of demand on the productivity and innovation activity of the companies, and examines the key sources of productivity growth and technological progress. The second chapter presents an analysis of indicators of the market size for durable goods in Russia, as well as data for Russian durable goods producers. The third chapter presents the empirical strategy and the results of the empirical assessment of the influence of market size on productivity and innovation, including for certain sectors of durable goods production. The fourth chapter analyzes the main measures of economic policy in the field of increasing productivity through the market channel. The main conclusions of the study and recommendations are presented at the end of the work
Abstract
The paper assesses the impact of the expected market size on the stimulation of the technological development of Russian durable goods manufacturing companies. The work is [...]
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ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE EXISTING FEDERAL STATE STANDARD OF SECONDARY GENERAL EDUCATION MODEL IN SECONDARY VOCATIONAL EDUCATION
V. Blinov, A. Satdykov, E. Esenina, Z. Dulaeva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 52

Abstract
Presidential Decree No. 204 dated May 7, 2018 “On the National Goals and Strategic Objectives of the Development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024” defines the development directions of the education system in the medium term. The Decree sets such goals as ensuring global competitiveness of Russian education, bringing Russia into top ten countries worldwide in terms of general education, and modernization of vocational education, including through the introduction of adaptive, practice-oriented and flexible educational curricula. The “Development of Education” state program of the Russian Federation for the years 2018-2025 puts forward the requirement to improve Russia’s position in the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) in the fields of natural science, reading and mathematical literacy, increase the number of employed graduates of educational organizations trained in secondary vocational education programs. Approved by the Collegium of the Russian Ministry of Education in October 2020, the draft Strategy for Improvement of the Workforce Training and Applied Qualifications Development System in the Russian Federation for the period until 2030 includes the improvement of the general education quality by updating teaching methods and technologies as one of the top priorities in the development of secondary vocational education (SVE) institutions, taking into account the professional orientation of vocational education programs, inclusion of intensive training methods, applied modules and the use of distance learning and electronic education technologies, networked education programs and annual Russia-wide testing works. However, the quality of general secondary education in SVE and ways to improve it still remain an issue. The aim of the preprint is to present the analysis findings of the existing general education model at Russian secondary vocational education institutions compared to their foreign counterparts. The study is based on the methodology of system analysis and uses methods of comparative analysis, interviews and expert methods. The study produced findings of comparative analysis of various approaches to the organization of general education in the vocational education system in Russia and abroad. The relevance of the study is represented by a set of proposals for building a promising general education program for students in secondary vocational education institutions, based on the analysis findings. The results of the study can be applied in organizing general education training as part of the secondary vocational education programs at the federal and regional levels.
Abstract
Presidential Decree No. 204 dated May 7, 2018 “On the National Goals and Strategic Objectives of the Development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024” [...]
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Review of the main approaches to the use of models with time-varying parameters in the macroeconomic modeling
M. Kazakova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 51

Abstract
Evaluation of models with time-varying parameters is widely used in macroeconomic research carried out over the past 20 years. Following the pioneering work in this area, various authors have begun to apply such models to analyze the time-varying behavior of such macroeconomic parameters such as volatility, long-term economic growth, trend inflation, persistence of inflation and oil prices, as well as the dependence of the main macroeconomic variables on oil prices oil. This review provides a methodological basis for the use of time-varying models. time parameters as one of the important macroeconomic modeling tools and forecasting, which allows you to take into account temporal changes in the relationships between different variables.
Abstract
Evaluation of models with time-varying parameters is widely used in macroeconomic research carried out over the past 20 years. Following the pioneering work in this area, various [...]
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ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT OF PROJECT ACTIVITIES IN HEALTHCARE IN RUSSIA AT THE TURN OF THE THIRD DECADE OF THE XXI CENTURY
L. Gabueva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 50

Abstract
The purpose of the study: substantiation of the role, place and mechanisms of modern economic methods of managing the health of the population of Russia to increase efficiency use of planned and mobilization funds allocated for priority national goals and tactical objectives in the health sector. Research methods and methodology: management theory, concepts of social sciences, methodology of public health, methods of medical statistics, economic and mathematical modeling of social processes, risk management tools, evaluating the effectiveness of development projects, quality management standards. Research results can be used for: − Medical and demographic prognostic examination of the factors of formation healthy lifestyle of the older generation of Russia, − Drafting of interdepartmental information exchange regulations information on medical and social security of the elderly, − Qualitative improvement of the standards of preventive and rehabilitation work with citizens of older gender and age groups, − Refinements of medium-term programs of measures for medical examination pensioners. − The practical significance of the study is due to: − Development of practical tools for budgeting facilities health care according to national health priorities (cancer care, cardiovascular disease, primary health care with preventive measures, etc.) at the expense of budgets and CHI. Systematization of the competencies of federal government bodies that have administrative regulations (orders, rules) for the regulation of health measures in the departmental system of managing social processes of the development of society, and as well as regional public health authorities, including the work regional project offices
Abstract
The purpose of the study: substantiation of the role, place and mechanisms of modern economic methods of managing the health of the population of Russia to increase efficiency use [...]
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“The views of the population of the regions of the Russian Federation on the birth rate in the conditions pandemics: results of a qualitative study”
K. Kazenin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 49

Abstract
This preprint outlines the results of a sociological survey (focus groups) carried out in May-June 2021 in five regions of Russia. The purpose of the survey was to study the respondents’ attitude towards childbearing and the new pronatalist state policy measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and to discover the respondents’ views on the conditions necessary for becoming a parent in the pandemic conditions. The results of the survey are of interest for forecasting birth rates in Russia.
Abstract
This preprint outlines the results of a sociological survey (focus groups) carried out in May-June 2021 in five regions of Russia. The purpose of the survey was to study the [...]
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Changes in urban infrastructure under the influence of migration: challenges for cultural policy
V. Malakhov, M. Simon, D. Letnyakov, A. Motin, L. Nikol'skiy, M. Pirova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 48

Abstract
Research on the impact of migration on the urban cultural infrastructure plays an important role in the European social anthropology. The city cultural space appears as a kind of ‘multicultural machinery,’ whose operation is supported by multiple actors, from officials to ‘cultural brokers’. In the Russian scientific literature, there is a certain gap in the study of urban ‘multicultural machineries.’ Some studies of the migrants’ leisure practices and cultural consumption have been published, but the topic of public representation of cultural diversity associated with migration remains poorly researched. Meanwhile, the national policy, which is largely based on the Soviet cultural heritage in organizing intercultural interaction, faces new challenges associated with the generational change. Young people from Central Asia who come to Russia for study and work, do not consider Soviet cultural background as a self-evident point of reference anymore. In these conditions, a revision of the existing approaches to the integration of migrants into the cultural sphere of the host cities is required.
Abstract
Research on the impact of migration on the urban cultural infrastructure plays an important role in the European social anthropology. The city cultural space appears as a [...]
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PLACES OF SPECTACLE AND SPACES OF PERFORMANCE IN EXPERIMENTAL THEATER CULTURE OF THE XX-XXI CENTURIES (RUSSIAN CONTEXT)
Z. Vasil'yeva, A. Dunayeva, V. Zolotukhin, Y. Liderman

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 47

Abstract
The work resulted in theoretical developments for the study of the spatial aspects of the latest practices in live arts, as well as the identification of social and cultural contexts that are key to the history of art in situ in Russia. The negative aesthetics of theatrical events mastering non-theatrical spaces: streets, foyers, roofs, squares, natural landscapes open up the possibility of analyzing the theatrical process and its auto-reflective function. Theatrical and performative events turn out to be closely integrated into such social processes as cultural democratization (inclusion of more and more new groups in the processes of cultural interactions), commemoration (the creation of new rituals and narratives for memory and preservation of cultural heritage), as well as in the processes of creating and drawing attention to the public spaces of a modern city. We believe that a necessary step for the development of the theory of contemporary art is the inclusion of a cross-disciplinary understanding of the object of study, in which live performing arts, installation arts, visual arts, video and audio experiments in exhibition projects would be considered together and thus the ideas and concepts of post-structuralist cultural criticism could be applicable to the contemporary art process.
Abstract
The work resulted in theoretical developments for the study of the spatial aspects of the latest practices in live arts, as well as the identification of social and cultural [...]
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STRATEGIES AND MECHANISMS FOR CONSTRUCTING HISTORICAL MEMORY AND FORGETTING IN THE SPACE OF PUBLIC HISTORY
S. Mereminskiy, I. Zhenin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 46

Abstract
At present, historical science is experiencing a new historiographical wave associated with the study of commemorative practices (anniversaries of significant events of the past, reevaluation of the activities and merits of historical, political and cultural “heroes”), which is reflected in the public space and largely shapes the current sociopolitical agenda. The systematization and analysis of existing theoretical and methodological approaches to comprehending the commemorative practices aimed at preserving and/or removing the memory of the past in the public space is one of the significant problems of social sciences in general and historical science in particular. Historical memory is an essential building block in the development of national identity. It is often based on one or more historical myths, which determine not only the society’s perception of the past, but also largely construct the attitude to the present (current) events. Understanding the mechanisms of how remembering the past determines group behavior and individual strategies of interaction with the surrounding world is important from the perspective of studying the transformation of national identity and the sustainability of the society as a whole. This determined the object of this study, namely the practice of constructing historical memory in the space of public history. The aim of the study is to systematize and analyze the existing theoretical and methodological approaches to comprehending the commemorative practices aimed at preserving the memory of the past and/or the process of forgetting the past in the public space. The analysis of theoretical models, as well as the mechanisms of formation, development, and consolidation of historical memory of events, figures, and “heroes” within this work will allow us to correlate the discourse of official history with the vernacular practices of remembering and/or forgetting about the past. In addition, a consideration of this issue based on the historical material of European countries (Great Britain and Germany) will allow us to see the models of developing and overcoming their own model of the past, which exist in the public space.
Abstract
At present, historical science is experiencing a new historiographical wave associated with the study of commemorative practices (anniversaries of significant events of the [...]
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APPROACHES TO THE UNDERSTANDING OF NATIONAL MARTYRY: THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ESSAY
A. Zygmont

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 45

Abstract
Political martyrdom is a vivid but extremely little-studied phenomenon. world political, social and religious culture, which originates in European New Age and is actively developing to this day. Since the 18th century he appeared in a huge range of historical contexts: these are the “martyrs of freedom” in the era of the French revolutions, martyred presidents in the USA, heroes of the 1916 Easter Rising in Dublin, martyrdom in the fascist movements of Spain, Romania, Germany of the 20th century, civil religions of the USSR and China, as well as sacrificial ideologies in the context of decolonization and postcolonialism. Over time, the number of political cults of martyrs not only decreased, but also increased: today is a civil holiday called "Day martyrs” is celebrated in more than 30 countries around the world, and the corresponding ideas continue to feed many national liberation and separatist movements around the world - for example, Kurds, Tamils, Welsh, Catalans or Indian Maoists (Naxalites). Accordingly, questions arise - why all this numerous nationalisms, established states and activist movements need martyrs, related practices and ideologies? What is the nature of this new and of the latest martyrdom - religious, secular or otherwise? Finally, is veneration of the martyrs as an expression of passion or as a mobilization strategy that has some function in group rallying, struggle and the subsequent founding of the state? The main hypothesis, which will be proved in the main part of the work, is that in the XVIII-XX centuries. many nation-states embraced the concept of martyrdom from religion (especially Christianity) and used it for the purpose of mobilization during its foundation and for the purpose of legitimation - after the foundation. martyrdom is foundation of civil religions of a number of modern nations, and they themselves in ideologically, they stand on the "bones" of all kinds of revolutionaries, freedom fighters or founding fathers. It seems that the study of this phenomenon can clarify the essence of nationalism, identify ideological and practical strategies formation of nation-states, as well as to promote understanding of the logic decolonization and current activist movements. The complexity of the subject of study makes it necessary interdisciplinary, located on the border between political science, religious studies and cultural history. This allows you to use extensive theoretical resources, including writings on nationalism, political theory, history socio-political thought, martyrdom, religion in the modern world, religion and five violence, and also, to some extent, the philosophy of sacrifice or post-secular. This scientific report presents the basic concepts, methods and research concepts: the relational nature of martyrdom as a narrative; him existence as a reputational project undertaken by specific interested people; martyrdom as an inversion of the founding murder paradigm (according to R. Girard); finally, the connection between martyrdom, violence, militancy (which considered on the example of early Christianity).
Abstract
Political martyrdom is a vivid but extremely little-studied phenomenon. world political, social and religious culture, which originates in European New Age and is actively [...]
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ANALYSIS OF THE EXISTING NETWORKS OF STATE UNIVERSITIES IN THE RUSSIAN REGIONS
T. KLYACHKO, G. TOKAREVA

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 44

Abstract
The development of higher education systems around the world is associated with an increase in the number of students, which has almost doubled over the past 30 years. The growth of student contingents has led to a reformatting of university networks. The question of the formation of a network of universities and their influence on spatial development, as well as the problem of the impact of economic development in certain territories on the need for the development of higher educational institutions is an urgent research problem. The main goal of this work is to assess the effectiveness of the spatial development of the higher education system, taking into account the effects that its different levels have on the processes of socio-economic development of Russian regions. The objective of this work is to analyze the existing networks of state universities in Russian regions. Research methods include analysis of statistical data and socio-economic information, economic and mathematical analysis and modeling. The main results of the research: the changes that took place in the network of state (municipal) universities in Russia in the 1990/91–2018/19 academic years are considered; the factors that caused the changes, as well as the consequences for the socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where the higher educational institutions are located, have been analyzed; the availability of higher education for the population and the economic sustainability of networks of state (municipal) universities in federal districts and various regions of Russia have been analyzed. The obtained results can be used in the interests of public authorities in the field of education for the development of a state policy of spatial development of the higher education system; assessing the consequences of the restructuring of networks of universities and branches of universities on the socio-economic development of Russian regions; assessing the directions of development of higher education in the regions of the Russian Federation.
Abstract
The development of higher education systems around the world is associated with an increase in the number of students, which has almost doubled over the past 30 years. The [...]
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RESEARCH OF METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRAMS FOR SOCIALIZATION OF CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS IN THE CONTEMPORARY INFORMATION SOCIETY
E. Alieva, A. Alekseeva, N. Avalueva, L. Asmolova, E. Vandanova, V. Zagvozdkin, A. Zvyagin, G. Rezapkina, E. Kartashova, M. Shekhter

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 43

Abstract
The priority task of the Russian Federation in the upbringing of the younger generation is the development of a highly moral person who shares Russian traditional spiritual values, has relevant knowledge and skills, and is able to realize his potential. The modern information society is characterized, on the one hand, by the growth of the electronic educational environment and distance technologies, which make it possible to bring education to a new level of opportunities for the development of children and adolescents, on the other hand, by additional risks of increased aggressiveness in the adolescent environment, peer bullying and other antisocial manifestations. The upbringing of children and adolescents in a family and an educational organization is a strategic nationwide priority that requires the consolidation of the efforts of various civil society institutions and departments at the federal, regional and municipal levels (the Upbringing Development Strategy in the Russian Federation for the period through to 2025). The preprint presented contains materials of research work carried out by the Center for Strategy, Design and Legal Support of RANEPA FIRO in 2021. The object of the described research is the process of socialization of children and adolescents in the modern information space. This preprint contains most of the research done. To achieve the goal of the study, the authors analyzed the literature on the issue and prepared a substantiation of scientific and methodological approaches in the development of programs for the socialization of children and adolescents in the information analysis societies. The subject of the analysis was the study of the psychological well-being of children and adolescents in the course of socialization in the educational space and communication in social networks (based on materials from foreign and domestic studies). In the course of solving scientific problems, the researchers identified the factors influencing the psychological well-being of children and adolescents in the modern educational space, and developed a system for assessing the subjective well-being of the Russian schoolchildren’s families based on the results of research on the psychological well-being of children and adolescents in the modern educational space and in social networks. As a scientific and practical development, the researchers offer one of the research results, an original program for the socialization of children and adolescents in a modern information society, which has been tested in 11 regions of the Russian Federation. Additionally, the preprint contains materials that will be useful for practical application by educational psychologists - a set of methods for assessing the psychological well-being of children and adolescents in the modern educational space and in social networks
Abstract
The priority task of the Russian Federation in the upbringing of the younger generation is the development of a highly moral person who shares Russian traditional spiritual [...]
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SUPPORTING FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN WITH AUTISM SPECTRUM DISORDERS (AS)
S. Morozova, S. Morozov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 42

Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by two interrelated points: the need to increase (1) the effectiveness of comprehensive support for persons with ASD and (2) the quality of life of children with ASD and the families in which they grow up. Comprehensive support can be neither (a) comprehensive without active, conscious, appropriately qualified participation of the family, nor (b) effective if the attitudes of specialists are not maintained for most of the day (when correcting autism, especially at the initial stage, it is actually necessary to change the lifestyle for the entire family). The only way to overcome these difficulties is to raise the awareness of family members in which there is a child with autism, their awareness of their real responsibility to the child and the possibilities of its effective implementation. Object of research: the process of support to families with children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Subject: Families with children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Purpose: to describe foreign and domestic experience on the problem of involvement of parents of children with ASD, contributing to an increase in the efficiency of the support process. Objectives: to analyze foreign and domestic literature on the problem of the involvement of parents of children with ASD in their comprehensive support. Methods: analysis of literature data; comparative studies; information visualization; comparison and generalization of the results obtained. Results: research materials can be used to qualitatively change work with parents and other family members of children with ASD in organizations implementing early assistance, preschool and primary general education programs, as well as in public organizations uniting parents of children with ASD. Conclusions: The results of analysis of foreign and domestic sources have established the possibilities and ways of involving parents and other family members of children with ASD, the following are included in the comprehensive support: biological characteristics of close relatives of a child with ASD; socio-psychological characteristics of a family with a child with ASD; interaction between specialists and parents. Recommendations: to continue research to study the correction of speech development, as the most important area of comprehensive support for children, adolescents and adults with ASD.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by two interrelated points: the need to increase (1) the effectiveness of comprehensive support for persons with ASD and (2) the quality [...]
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TRAINING SCHOOL STUDENTS IN THE SECOND AND THIRD SHIFTS: ANALYSIS OF CURRENT SITUATION
A. TISHCHENKO

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 41

Abstract
The Center for the Economics of Continuing Education of the RANEPA Institute of Applied Economic Research (IAER) performs annual monitoring of the efficiency of school education. The COVID-19 pandemic has made significant changes in the functioning and development of the educational system, which makes the analysis of the challenges and consequences an urgent research problem. Taking into account the tasks of the national project "Education" and the measures of the state program of the Russian Federation "Development of Education", eliminating the third shift in school education and achieving single-shift educational process is a significant characteristic of the state of the general education system. The main goal of the study is to assess the current state of regional general education systems, identifying and minimizing risks in achieving the targets. The objectives of this work are to analyze the organization of educational process in the Russian regions in the context of urban and rural settlements; analyze the changes in relation to the prepandemic situation at the beginning of the 2019/20 academic year. Research methods include analysis of open statistical data, comparison and generalization of the results. The main conclusions of the study are as follows: the problem of second-shift education for schoolchildren in rural areas is less acute than in urban areas; the proportion of schoolchildren in the third shift in rural schools is higher than in urban educational organizations; the pandemic had a negative impact on the mode of education – the increase in the number of schoolchildren studying in the second shift exceeded the growth in the number of schoolchildren in educational organizations by 12.2% in cities and by 87.4% in rural settlements. The results of the study can be used in the interests of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation, education authorities of the Russian Federation for assessing the state of regional systems of school education, forecasting the development of regional systems of school education in the medium term to ensure the validity of management decisions in this area in the face of epidemiological and economic instability.
Abstract
The Center for the Economics of Continuing Education of the RANEPA Institute of Applied Economic Research (IAER) performs annual monitoring of the efficiency of school education. [...]
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ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF FINANCING UNIVERSITY SCIENCE ON UNIVERSITY DEVELOPMENT
A. Fedotov, A. Kovalenko, A. Polushkina, B. L.Yu

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 40

Abstract
The object of the study is the system of research funding in Russian universities. The purpose of the study is to assess the potential of scientific research in universities of different profiles and the ability of higher education institutions to attract budgetary and nonbudgetary funding for research. Method and methodology of research – methods of statistical data analysis; methods of comparison and generalization of the results obtained; international methodology for calculating socioeconomic indicators; methods of comparative analysis of socioeconomic information. The study as a whole is aimed at solving the following main fundamental and applied problems: • Analysis of the principles, models and mechanisms of research funding in the system of higher education in Russia and abroad; 4 • Development of approaches (methodology) to assessing the impact of the amount of budgetary and non-budgetary funding of scientific research on the development of universities as scientific and educational centers; • Analysis of regulatory documents pertaining to non-financial support measures, financing of scientific research in Russian universities and the effectiveness of their implementation; • Analysis of the impact of the establishment of world-class research and education centers on the distribution of financial resources in Russia’s higher education system; • Assessment of the current financing volume of civilian research, development and engineering (RD&E) works at universities of different profiles by integrated multidisciplinary groups (IMG), individual training areas and types of activity in the last three years; • Determination of the impact of funding and non-financial support measures for university research on the development of universities of different profiles; • Development of recommendations to improve the existing support measures for university research in Russia, including support for the subsequent implementation of the results of university research and their commercialization. Research findings. The authors have analyzed the principles, models and mechanisms of financing university research that have been implemented during the last two decades in the USA, China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, France, India, Great Britain, Brazil, and Russia; they have also analyzed the regulatory norms of the system of state support for science development in the Russian Federation, as well as the system for development and application of these measures, assessed the current volume of university research funding by main sources and financing mechanisms for the last three years (based on the statistics available), conducted comparative analysis of funding volumes for universities and academic organizations in different areas (based on the statistics available), proposed a methodology for assessing the microeconomic efficiency and macroeconomic impact of the university’s research activity, conducted an assessment of the influence of university research funding on the development of universities of various profiles. The material was prepared based on the results of research work on research topic 11.3 “Financing and non-financial support measures of university science and their impact on the development of universities of different profiles,” performed within the framework of the state assignment to RANEPA.
Abstract
The object of the study is the system of research funding in Russian universities. The purpose of the study is to assess the potential of scientific research in universities [...]
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF COMPLIANCE WITH STRUCTURE AND VOLUME TRAINING OF STAFF WITH HIGHER EDUCATION NEEDS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT - REGIONAL ASPECT
T. Klyachko, A. Fedotov, A. Kovalenko, T. Blinova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 39

Abstract
CONTINUING PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION, ADDITIONAL PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION, LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT, STAFF DEMAND, STAFF WITH HIGHER EDUCATION, STRUCTURE OF STAFF TRAINING, STRUCTURE OF GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT This paper analyzes the correspondence between the structure of training personnel with higher education and the prospective sectoral structure of the subjects of the federation. Comparison of the structure of personnel training in the context of integrated multidisciplinary groups with the prospective structure of regional economies in the context of types of economic activity revealed that the disproportion in provision of needs of regional economies with specialists of relevant specialization in education is observed in 76 subjects of the Russian Federation; moreover, for 11 multidisciplinary training areas, this disproportion is noted in more than a quarter of the subjects of the federation. This scientific work shows a new trend in the development of the system of additional professional education – a faster growth in the volume of professional retraining programs with the assignment of a new qualification, which may indicate the growing role of the additional professional education system, to compensate the shortage of personnel with higher education through the retraining of specialists with unpopular qualifications in the labor market, and giving them new competencies that meet the demands of the labor market. Based on the results of the analysis, measures are proposed to align the training structure of personnel with higher education to the future structure of regional economies. The material was prepared based on the results of research work on the research topics "11.1 Analysis of the effectiveness of existing networks of public and private universities in the Russian regions in the context of the rapid development of distance learning technologies" and "11.4 Research of long-term development trends in the system of continuing professional education ", carried out within the framework of the state assignment to RANEPA.
Abstract
CONTINUING PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION, ADDITIONAL PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION, LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT, STAFF DEMAND, STAFF WITH HIGHER EDUCATION, STRUCTURE OF STAFF TRAINING, STRUCTURE [...]
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RESOURCE SUPPLY OF REGIONAL SECONDARY OF VOCATIONAL EDUCATION IN THE CONDITIONS OF INCREASING DISTANCE LEARNING FORMS
Y. Lomteva, L. Bedareva, Y. Polushkina, A. Polushkina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 38

Abstract
This scientific report presents the findings of a study of regional systems of secondary vocational education during the forced transition to distance learning. The large-scale lockdown of vocational educational institutions during the pandemic and the need to switch to distance learning as soon as possible revealed a number of problems: distance learning technologies are not used in eight regions of the Russian Federation to train either skilled workers and employees or secondary level specialists; e-learning and distance learning in the Russian Federation are used by no more than 20% of secondary vocational education institutions; teachers and industrial training supervisors do not possess the necessary skills to integrate digital technologies into the education process. The paper considers the directions of transformation of regional systems of secondary vocational education associated with the introduction of distance learning technologies and an increase in the enrollment. The study is based on an analysis of statistical data describing the current status of regional secondary vocational education systems, including statistical reporting forms. The work is important for the regional vocational education systems and is the basis for the implementing new principles of building regional vocational education systems and the development of new social partnership mechanisms ensuring active involvement of labor market participants in vocational education.
Abstract
This scientific report presents the findings of a study of regional systems of secondary vocational education during the forced transition to distance learning. The large-scale [...]
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SOCIO-COGNITIVE DETERMINANTS OF THE SUCCESSFUL MANAGEMENT IN THE MODERN GOVERNMENT SYSTEM
Y. Sinyagin, E. Chirkovskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 37

Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the following: traditionally, the problem of managerial success in the modern public administration system is considered from the standpoint of individual psychological characteristics of a person, their psycho-biographical factors, or based on indicators of the effectiveness of managerial activity. On the contrary, the issues of sociocognitive factors, their influence on the achievements of the individual are considered to a lesser extent. At the same time, social and cognitive features that explain managerial success and differences in management styles are important determinants of managerial success, along with the aforementioned characteristics. Studying this through the prism of personal life strategies, the system of personal meanings that determine individual consciousness, allows us to identify strategies for understanding the subjective effectiveness and success of management activities, especially in a situation of its increasing complexity. The purpose of the study is to identify the features of the social and cognitive sphere of modern leaders of the public administration system, its relationship with managerial and career success, and on this basis to substantiate the typology of managers with different management concepts for the development of their individual development programs. The object of the research is the socio-cognitive sphere of the managers’ personality. Research method: study of literary sources, review of scientific approaches, expert survey, questionnaires, content analysis of documents, testing using author's tools, quantitative and qualitative analysis of empirical data. Analysis of the array of empirical data, modeling, comparative data analysis. The main conclusions: based on empirical data from a representative sample of management personnel of the public administration system, which amounted to more than 8000 respondents, a study of the factors of influence of the socio-cognitive characteristics of the leader on their managerial (career) success, the socio-cognitive characteristics of the leader was conducted in 2021 and the typology of leaders based on the combination of these properties was built. The novelty of the research: for the first time, the issue of socio-cognitive determinants of managerial success is considered, a typology of managers is built, which is based on a combination of socio-cognitive characteristics that are determinants of the subjective picture of the manager's world: internality, distance, safety orientation. This can significantly expand the scientific field of research both in the field of the subject of management activities and in the field of professional activities of civil servants. Research prospects: research results can be used to develop scientific potential in order to improve the quality of educational programs for scientific and methodological support for the introduction of new principles of personnel policy in the civil service; develop the requirements for the assessment of managers of the public administration system, candidates for the positions of managers, as well as participants in the reserves of managerial personnel; develop the requirements for the structure and content of management training programs in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, and building individualized programs for professional and personal development.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the following: traditionally, the problem of managerial success in the modern public administration system is considered from the standpoint [...]
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FEATURES OF THE FORMATION OF MANAGEMENT TEAMS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NATIONAL PROJECTS USING REGIONAL PERSONNEL COMPETITIONS
Y. Sinyagin, E. Selezneva, A. Rozhok, O. Sheburakova, N. Sinyagina, O. Pereverzina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 36

Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the need to scientific and practical improvement of approaches to the selection and formation of management teams for the implementation of national projects; The purpose of the study is to identify the features of the selection and formation of management teams for the implementation of national projects using personnel regional competitions; Research tasks: a) identify the specifics of personnel regional competitions as instruments for the formation of management teams; b) to analyze the specific characteristics of teams for the implementation of national goals and projects based on the generalization of the results of personnel regional competitions; c) develop a model of requirements for managers and managerial teams on the implementation of national projects in the subjects of the Russian Federation; d) determine the characteristic features of effective management teams for the implementation of national projects; e) analyze personal and group factors of the effectiveness of managers as members of the management team on the implementation of national projects. The study was conducted in 2021 at the Faculty of Assessment and Development of Management Personnel VSSU Ravgigs. As research methods, scientific and methodological analysis, psychobiographic analysis, observation, expert survey, questionnaire, personal and professional diagnostics, content analysis of documents were used as research methodologies. The analysis of 2019- 2020 was used to analyze., Which includes the results of the personal and professional diagnosis of civil servants, as well as the results of the expert survey. The main results of the study are: clarification of the content of the concept of the "Management team" in relation to the public administration system; Expert and analytical note "Personnel regional contests as instruments for the formation of management teams"; Guidelines for optimizing the process of selection of teams to implement national projects using personnel regional competitions. Basic conclusions: The results of research work may be useful for creating a base for the formation of effective management teams in all the structures of public administration, as well as the development of specific mechanisms for the selection and formation of management teams for the implementation of national projects using personnel regional competitions. Research prospects may be associated with: identifying value-semantic factors for the development of team potential and improving the efficiency and productivity of project activities in the public administration system; studying the psychobiographic factors of development in civil servants of readiness to fulfill certain management and commanding roles; development of instruments for assessing the management team in the system of public administration as a group entity of activities; Improving the technology of regional personnel competitions as a tool for selecting effective management teams.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the need to scientific and practical improvement of approaches to the selection and formation of management teams for the implementation [...]
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OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASING THE EFFICIENCY OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE STATE OF PERSONNEL POLICY BASED ON THE USE OF UNIFIED PROCEDURES OF PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL DIAGNOSIS AND ASSESSMENT IN THE SYSTEM STATE CIVIL SERVICE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
I. Sheburakov, Y. Sinyagin, L. Tatarinov, O. Sheburakova, Z. Goyayeva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 35

Abstract
The research work is devoted to analyzing the assessment practice in the public civil service, defining conditions and factors affecting the level of maturity of assessment in the HR technology system, and determining the possibilities for the introduction of unified procedures for personal and professional diagnostics and assessment in the activities of the government HR services to improve the effectiveness of personnel policy implementation in the civil service. In the process of researching, based on the analysis of trends characterizing the development of approaches to assessment in the civil service, directions for increasing the effectiveness of personnel policy were determined; proposals were substantiated for the formation of a system of unified procedures for personal and professional diagnostics and assessment in the civil service of the Russian Federation; methodological recommendations were developed and identified. The conditions necessary for the large-scale implementation of a system of unified procedures for personal and professional diagnostics in the state civil service of the Russian Federation.
Abstract
The research work is devoted to analyzing the assessment practice in the public civil service, defining conditions and factors affecting the level of maturity of assessment [...]
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THE POSSIBILITIES OF USING INTERACTIVE DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES OF PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF ORGANIZING AND CONDUCTING MANAGEMENT COMPETITIONS
A. Mudarisov, Y. Sinyagin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 34

Abstract
The relevance of this research is primarily due to the intensive development of technologies for remote work with personnel. Interest in digital tools for the assessment and development of human resources is increasing both in business and in the field of public service. The growing trend in recent years to search and select the most promising personnel through open management competitions has formed a request for methodological and technological modernization of already proven evaluation tools and their adaptation to the specific conditions of such personnel projects. The purpose of the study is to study the possibilities and prospects of using interactive digital technologies for evaluating personal, professional and managerial resources within the framework of organizing and conducting managerial and personnel projects (competitions). The object of the study is personal and professional resources and psychological qualities of managers participating in management competitions. Research methods: general scientific, psychological and mathematical; analysis of literary sources, testing, statistical data processing. As part of the research work, an extensive analysis of the modern world practice of using digital interactive technologies in the field of personnel management was carried out. The key trends in the use of interactive digital technologies are identified and described. An interactive digital methodology of personal and professional diagnostics in the format of a test to assess the respondent's level of knowledge in the field of public administration in the Russian Federation has been developed and tested. Based on the developed tools, an empirical study was conducted on a sample of more than three and a half thousand managers participating in the management competition. According to the results of an empirical study, significant differences in personal and professional characteristics were revealed between participants who demonstrated different levels of knowledge. The conducted empirical research allows us to draw conclusions about the expediency of using knowledge tests in the context of personal and professional diagnostics. A variant of creating a methodology for assessing the level of claims based on the developed knowledge test is proposed. Recommendations on the use of an interactive format for the implementation of digital methods for assessing managerial and personal-professional resources in the context of mass remote assessment are formulated. The prospects and possibilities of using such digital assessment tools in the framework of projects for the development of state personnel policy are outlined.
Abstract
The relevance of this research is primarily due to the intensive development of technologies for remote work with personnel. Interest in digital tools for the assessment and [...]
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PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CIVIL SERVANTS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
T. Lavrova, S. Evarovich, S. Martynova, N. Gotovschikova, O. Karlova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 33

Abstract
Digital transformation in governance is possible subject to a change in the corporate culture of the federal authorities. Training and a modern system of professional development of public authorities based on digital solutions and requiring digital skills are becoming the most important tool for changing culture. At the same time, the digitalization of the processes of organizing the professional development of civil servants is impossible without improving this system, including building interconnection with the development strategy of the state body (sphere, department), the system for assessing and motivating civil servants, and their career development. The approaches to planning the professional development of civil servants, quality assessment and examination of educational programs require updating. These processes must be based on modern digital solutions and services. The object of the research is the activities of state bodies and subdivisions regulating the sphere of professional development of civil servants. The purpose of the study is to develop proposals for improving the system of professional development of public authorities in the context of the government digital transformation. The tasks are related to the analysis of the current state of the professional development system in public authorities, the development of proposals for improving the system of professional development in governance in the context of digitalization and client (citizen) centricity. The novelty of the research is determined by the introduction of new state data of the professional development system of civil servants and the proposed model of the system maturity levels under study. The research is based on a systemic approach and a comparative method. The following empirical methods are used: sociological research (in-depth interviews, polls of civil servants); analysis of documents, expert sessions; modeling. The result of the research was the development of proposals for improving the system of professional development in the aspect of creating unified methodological approaches to the professional development of civil servants. The main conclusions relate to the application of the maturity level model of this system and the possibility of its use to update the existing approaches and methodological tools. A special place is occupied by proposals for the improvement of the Unified Information System for Personnel Management of the State Civil Service of Russia (EISU KS) and the Unified Specialized Information Resource (EIR) services for professional development of civil servants. The results of research can be used in the interests of federal authorities and regional governments, the Office of the President of the Russian Federation for Civil 7 Service and Personnel, the Human Resources Department of the Government of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation to improve work on the professional development of civil servants. The prospects of the study are associated with the implementation of the proposed model of maturity levels and the development of methodological tools for moving to higher levels in terms of organizing professional development
Abstract
Digital transformation in governance is possible subject to a change in the corporate culture of the federal authorities. Training and a modern system of professional development [...]
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USING GOOGLE TRENDS FOR PREDICTIONS: REVIEW AND APPLICATIONS FOR RETAIL SALES FORECASTING
A. Zubarev, Y. Golovanova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 32

Abstract
Due to the growing popularity of the Internet, many purchases are made in online stores. The Google Trends service collects data based on user requests and breaks them down into categories. In this paper, we review the existing forecasting methods using this service, and make an attempt to predict the dynamics of retail sales using macroeconomic variables and categories in Google Trends corresponding to various commodity groups of food and non-food products. For each type of retail, we build the best predictive models from macroeconomic variables and try to improve them by adding trends.
Abstract
Due to the growing popularity of the Internet, many purchases are made in online stores. The Google Trends service collects data based on user requests and breaks them down [...]
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Analysis of new approaches to identifying risks and ensuring financial stability in modern national financial systems
Y. Danilov, D. Pivovarov, I. Davydov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 31

Abstract
This paper explores new approaches to identifying financial stability risks and implementing financial stability policies in the contemporary national financial systems. The need for new approaches is primarily explained by a dramatic expansion of the range of financial stability risks due to the increasingly important role of non-banking financial institutions and financial markets in the operation of financial systems, as well as the growing financial inclusion of firms and households. The problems of assessing financial stability are given a special focus. Based on the analysis of financial stability metrics used by the world’s leading central banks and recommended by international financial organizations, the authors formulate proposals for modernizing the system of financial stability indicators used by the Bank of Russia. We formulated proposals on measures to protect the domestic market from external shocks arising from changes in the monetary policy conducted by the world’s leading central banks; on accounting for the expanded range of financial stability risks; and on harmonizing financial stability policies with other areas of financial development.
Abstract
This paper explores new approaches to identifying financial stability risks and implementing financial stability policies in the contemporary national financial systems. The [...]
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MEDIUM TERM PARAMETERS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC, BUDGETARY AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FORECASTING FOR THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND KEY MACROECONOMIC RISKS MANAGEMENT
A. Vedev, K. Tuzov, M. Kovaleva, V. Eremkin

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 30

Abstract
The topic of the study is relevant due to the fact that abrupt changes in the economy and in the financial system, particularly those caused by the coronavirus pandemic, have changed all existing development forecasts. At the same time, a whole range of new risks for the financial system appeared. In this regard, the development of a forecast for the development of the financial sector in various scenarios, taking into account risks and opportunities, seems to be the most important task for the Russian economy. The purpose of the study is to develop a medium-term forecast for the development of the financial sector in the Russian Federation. The subject of this research is the dynamics of the development of the financial system of the Russian Federation in the medium term. The research method or methodology is based on the study of key current and retrospective data on the state of the financial sector of the Russian Federation, highlighting the most important risks for the financial sector and building a medium-term forecast. As a result of the work carried out, the key components of the budgetary sphere, financial and credit markets have been analyzed, and the impact of the deterioration in the external environment has been assessed. Thus, the work presents the assessments of the prerequisites for the forecast and developed three possible scenarios for the development of the financial sector in Russia. The scientific novelty of the research lies in producing unique forecasts for the development of the financial sector in Russia. The recommendations obtained as a result of the study indicate the need to develop mechanisms for responding to certain risks for the financial system, taking into account the possible consequences of such an impact presented in the forecast. The project was carried out as part of research work by the Laboratory for Structural Research of the IAER at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in 2021.
Abstract
The topic of the study is relevant due to the fact that abrupt changes in the economy and in the financial system, particularly those caused by the coronavirus pandemic, have [...]
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Supporting employment through entrepreneurship: what international practices are appropriate for Russia
V. Barinova, S. Zemtsov, Y. Tsareva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 29

Abstract
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ more than 50% of the population of developed countries, so their support is one of the significant measures in maintaining employment. The relevance of this direction has grown since the crisis of 2020, which caused significant damage to the SME sector. The aim of the work was systematization and generalization of the developed countries’ experience in SME support in crisis and non-crisis periods, identification of support tools needed in Russia. The tasks of the study included analyzing both the experience of the development of employment support policies and tools for supporting and developing entrepreneurship using various crises as an example. The research was carried out using general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, induction and deduction, comparisons, generalizations, etc.). The authors reviewed the literature and open sources relevant for 2021, including reports by international organizations, regulatory legal acts. The results of the research are conclusions about the foreign experience of employment support and the possibility of its application in Russia. The main direction of the employment support policy in non-crisis periods abroad is to create motivation for medium- and long-term unemployed to look for work, to attract vulnerable social groups to work; acceleration programs are used to support SMEs by reducing administrative pressure and increasing regulatory transparency. During the current crisis, the government support for business abroad intensified in two directions: supporting the liquidity of companies and facilitating the maximum transfer of activities to a remote, digital mode. Over the past decade, Russia has actively advanced in non-crisis support for SMEs, but in the current crisis, it needs to expand the areas of preferential lending or cofinancing, and step up assistance to digitalize the activities of SMEs. The main direction of further research is to analyze the use of said foreign instruments in Russia, compare their effectiveness and adjust them taking into consideration Russian specifics.
Abstract
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ more than 50% of the population of developed countries, so their support is one of the significant measures in maintaining [...]
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“General Approaches to the Modernization of Economic and Social relations in the North Caucasus: institutional alternatives"
K. Kazenin, I. Starodubrovskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 28

Abstract
This paper examines the main theoretical approaches to the issue of economic catch-up. The preprint formulates the two key types of economic modernization policy – “top-down modernization” and “bottom-up modernization”. The idea of “top-down modernization” is to create new industrial enterprises in a struggling region at the expense of the state budget or large third-party investors. In turn, “bottom-up modernization” implies relying on existing resources in communities, supporting local firms already in operation, and implementing measures aimed at increasing the competitiveness of all existing firms in the community or region. The analysis of practical application of these strategies shows that most attempts at “top-down modernization” have not been too successful so far – despite achieving some acceleration of economic growth in the short run, they eventually failed to reduce the economic lag due to insurmountable management problems and creating wrong business stimuli. At the same time, the “bottom-up modernization” strategy has proven more successful, as shown by the example of Southern Europe and East Asia, albeit with reservations – to achieve accelerated economic growth, it is necessary that the region should already have the prerequisites for development (from the availability of human capital to the people’s willingness to trust each other)
Abstract
This paper examines the main theoretical approaches to the issue of economic catch-up. The preprint formulates the two key types of economic modernization policy – “top-down [...]
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Система стратегического планирования: глобальные тенденции, внешние шоки и разработка подходов адаптации к ним
V. Komarov, V. Akimova, A. Voloshinskaya, N. Moskvitina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 27

Abstract
An effective modern strategic planning system should be based on two basic concepts: resilience (resistance or stability against any shocks) and long-term sustainability (with special emphasis on long-term). It is the ability to adapt to modern realities that determines the relevance and effectiveness of the implementation of strategic planning documents. According to various estimates, a full frontal national strategy can “fade” completely within 4–5 years. For a regional or sectoral strategy, according to our estimates, this happens in 2-3 years, for urban - in one. In this regard, it is necessary to determine the factors contributing to the “fading” (forgetting) of strategic documents, and to identify the main approaches, which can be implemented to extend their relevance. The study is dedicated to the analysis of the applicability of existing economic concepts to ensure the solution of the modern problem of socio-economic development: improving the quality of life, ensuring the stability and viability (resilience) of the economic system without increasing economic growth and investment activity (like GDP growth and increase in investments raised) as well as to putting forward recommendations for updating methodological approaches to the development of strategic documents with the aim of creating an adaptive and up-to-date strategic planning system. It was revealed that the strategic planning documents being developed in Russia are static and not capable of responding to changes in the socio-economic, political, cultural situation, while the country’s socio-economic development strategy should be a response tool of state authorities to external challenges, a flexible tool that allows reconfiguring the public administration system to respond to these challenges. It was found that there are two groups of factors responsible for the “fading” of strategic documents: direct - arising from the end of the official validity period of the strategies or due to their cancellation by the authority responsible for the development and implementation of these documents, and indirect – arising from socio-economic transformations taking place in the field of strategic planning and influencing the achievement of the respective documents. According to the results of the analysis of the news background of 10 strategies at regional and municipal level, it was revealed that the “fading period” differs both between regions and municipalities, and between individual cities and regions, depending on the local institutional environment, activity level of the civil society, attitude to the strategy (“formal implementation of the rules” against an effectively working document), etc. Changes were also proposed to Law 172-FZ regarding revision of the existing principles of goal-setting, as well as special testing procedures to ensure the resilience and stainability of the documents.
Abstract
An effective modern strategic planning system should be based on two basic concepts: resilience (resistance or stability against any shocks) and long-term sustainability (with [...]
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“G20 Members’ Approaches to Regulating Digital Markets”
A. Shelepov, O. Kolmar

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 26

Abstract
The object of this working paper is the policy and priorities of the digital economy leaders (the G20 members) in regulating digital platforms. The goal of the study is to assess the impact of these countries’ policies in the field of digital platforms regulation and to develop recommendations regarding Russia’s policy on digital platforms and its participation in developing new global regulatory approaches. In order to achieve this goal, the working paper addresses the following objectives: to clarify the criteria and select the leading countries from among the G20 members on the basis of expert assessments and data from international ratings; to carry out the analysis of policies and priorities of the selected digital leaders (UK, USA, Canada, EU, Japan, Korea, India, China) as well as Russia in regulating digital platforms; to develop recommendations regarding Russia’s policy on digital platforms regulation at the national level, as well as promoting its approach within the G20 and other multilateral institutions. The study is highly relevant since the leading developed countries increase their regulatory potential, including through the consistent inclusion of their standards and cooperation norms they have developed in the documents adopted by multilateral organizations, and thus create a global market for their goods and services, and additional opportunities for their companies. The study shows that a strong potential exists for a positive effect in terms of a coordinated approach to regulating digital platforms’ activities at the international level. In this context, it is important for Russia to integrate the issues of digital platforms regulation into the BRICS and G20 digital economy agendas.
Abstract
The object of this working paper is the policy and priorities of the digital economy leaders (the G20 members) in regulating digital platforms. The goal of the study is to [...]
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« Benefits and risks for Russian industries and individual enterprises from the implementation of trade and economic agreements of the CIS countries»
A. Knobel, Y. Zaytsev, K. Bagdasaryan, M. Baeva, N. Volovik, V. Sedalishchev, M. Kazaryan, D. Kuznetsov, D. Mirakyan, N. Toropov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 25

Abstract
The CIS countries, or more broadly the former republics of the USSR, are effectively making a choice between European (EU) and Eurasian (EAEU) integration, which leads to certain benefits and risks for all CIS+ countries (including Ukraine and Georgia), especially for Russia. The cases of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are of primary interest. Termination of trade and economic cooperation, disruption of value chains, etc. entail a serious threat to industrial development for Russian industries and individual enterprises. Crisis phenomena such as the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, only exacerbate these trends. Great Britain’s departure from the EU (Brexit) at the end of January 2020 is also of research interest. The topics of the post-Soviet countries and their trade and economic cooperation with different countries have been studied by various authors since the collapse of the USSR. In the past ten years, there has been an increase in the activity of studying these problems, in connection with the development of the European Neighborhood Policy on the one hand and Eurasian integration on the other. Research by foreign and domestic authors can be distinguished into the following groups:
Abstract
The CIS countries, or more broadly the former republics of the USSR, are effectively making a choice between European (EU) and Eurasian (EAEU) integration, which leads to [...]
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Development of an approach to the analysis of the impact of changes in the transport network on the interregional distribution of cargo flows in Russia
. K. V. Rostislav, . YU. YU. Ponomarev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 24

Abstract
The transportation system is less variable than settlement patterns or the allocation of economic activity. This necessitates checking the optimality of spending on the development of transportation networks. Previous work in this area proposed criteria for the optimal development of transport networks for a single mode of transportation. The study demonstrates how, with the help of carrying capacity, a multilayer network can be “collapsed” to a representation convenient for working with the usual tools of spatial general equilibrium models. The possibilities of the new approach have been tested on the example of the Kaliningrad oblast. It was found that the distribution of the carrying capacity between the urban districts of the Kaliningrad region is not optimal: the carrying capacity of the roads in the latitudinal direction is insufficient. It follows from the model that new investments in road construction should bring the carrying capacity of roads between municipalities closer to such levels that the ratios of carrying capacity between pairs of adjacent territories correspond to those in the model with a zero lower limit of the optimal carrying capacity value.
Abstract
The transportation system is less variable than settlement patterns or the allocation of economic activity. This necessitates checking the optimality of spending on the development [...]
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IMPROVING THE SYSTEM FOREIGN TRADE REGULATION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN RUSSIA IN CONDITIONS OF SHOCKS TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
N. Svetlov, D. Ternovsky, V. Uzun, N. Shagaida, E. Shishkina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 23

Abstract
The study proves the effectiveness of the tools used to regulate the export of wheat, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil that restrict the transfer of global prices to the domestic market, but it also evaluates the negative effects of their use and formulates proposals for their improvement. In justifying the use of floating duty mechanisms on grain exports and grain dampener, the authors also assess their positive effect on the level of consumer prices for foodstuffs made with grain. To prevent the negative effects of export restrictions, the use of a regularly updated base export price value is recommended when calculating the floating export duty on grain. The influence of tariff disparity on the restrictions on the export of sunflower seeds is substantiated, and it is shown that the use of export restrictions at a higher level of 3 competition in the domestic market does not reduce the effect of the agricultural producers’ income growth associated with an increase in the global sunflower oil prices, with a neutral effect on the position of the processing industry. It is shown that the introduction of a floating export duty on sunflower oil in September 2021 is equivalent in its effect on the consumer market to the effect of voluntary retail price capping agreements in 2020-2021.
Abstract
The study proves the effectiveness of the tools used to regulate the export of wheat, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil that restrict the transfer of global prices to the [...]
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FEATURES OF SMALL BUSINESS SUPPORT IN RURAL AREAS
E. Gataulina, A. Potapova, D. Ternovskiy, E. Shishkina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 22

Abstract
One of the priorities of state policy is small business and the development of rural areas. It is obvious that rural small business (SB) is an important aspect of the development of rural areas. However, it has been little studied, which justifies the relevance of the study. The purpose of the work is to analyze the state of rural small business, to identify the peculiarities of its support. The objectives of the study include an analysis of methodological issues of identification and support of small businesses in rural areas, the formation of a database based on a review of information sources, analysis of the current state of, and support measures for, small businesses in rural areas based on the generated data sets. A separate task of the study is to identify the status quo and peculiarities of support for rural small businesses in the context of COVID-19. The work was carried out at the Center for AgriFood Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in 2021. The main sources of information were data from the Unified Register of Small and Medium-sized Businesses and the Unified Register of Small and Medium-sized Businesses receiving support. The two registers are maintained by the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation. Comparative, computational-constructive, statistical methods were used. As a result, for the first time, an assessment of the current state of rural small business in Russia was obtained in regional and sectoral cross-sections in terms of the number and density of businesses; in comparison with the urban areas, which is also the novelty of this work. The regions with the highest concentration of rural small business, as well as regions where it develops less successfully, are highlighted. It is shown that the main volume of support for rural SBs falls on agriculture, although the main sphere of rural SBs is trade, transport, and only then agriculture. The results can be used to improve regional and federal policy in the field of rural development. Further research can develop in terms of further monitoring of rural small business, expanding the analysis of the characteristics of rural small businesses, now available through a limited range of indicators, identifying factors affecting the development of rural small businesses.
Abstract
One of the priorities of state policy is small business and the development of rural areas. It is obvious that rural small business (SB) is an important aspect of the development [...]
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MODELLING SCENARIOS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR
A. Strokov, V. Potashnikov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2023). 21

Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to analyze the consequences of the concentration of livestock farms, not only from an economic point of view, but also from an environmental one. The objective of the research is to develop ways for sustainable development of animal husbandry in Russia, taking into account the possibilities of continuous growth in production and export of meat and milk, balanced by current environmental problems (growth of farm waste) and the possibilities of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The subject of the research is the environmental indicators characterizing the externalities arising from the production of livestock products (meat, milk, eggs). The work uses traditional scientific methods - descriptive, analytical, statistical and methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The sources of information were Russian and foreign scientific publications, official publications of regulatory documents and statistical data of state authorities of Russia, as well as foreign databases on agricultural statistics. The reported results conclude that the concentration of livestock production facilities leads to different environmental consequences. Among the leading regions specializing in livestock products, the highest concentration is in the Central Black Earth Region: the Belgorod and Kursk regions account for almost 30% of all agricultural waste in Russia. The greenhouse gas emissions were estimated using the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model. The calculation results showed that Belgorod region has one of the lowest carbon footprint indicators in livestock production: 8 tons of СО2 equiv. per one ton of protein, which is associated with the lowcarbon development of poultry farming. In other regions, which specialize in dairy and beef cattle breeding, the carbon footprint is at least twice as high, for example, in the Krasnodarsky krai; however, the indicators of waste output per unit of production, on the contrary, are lower there. Thus, the scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of scientific and analytical tools for the correct identification of local, regional and global environmental risks when assessing the efficiency of meat, milk and eggs production. So, in our study, local risks were assessed through the concentration of manure (nitrogen) elements per unit of agricultural land and cultivated area at the level of municipalities. Regional risks were assessed through the indicator of waste from agricultural products. And global risks were assessed through an indicator of greenhouse gas emissions, which also allowed us to estimate the so-called cumulative carbon footprint of each region per unit of animal protein produced. Based on the results of the study, recommendations were developed to improve statistical reporting on production waste in the agricultural sector; to differentially collect and publish data on various types of feeding of farm animals in different categories of farms, which will subsequently help to better calculate animal diets and their potential waste and greenhouse gas emissions, in order to identify the most "wasteful” and “sustainable” animal husbandry practices.
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to analyze the consequences of the concentration of livestock farms, not only from an economic point of view, but also [...]
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Review of foreign experience in assessing the impact of qualitative indicators on economic processes using vector autoregression models
S. Maria

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 20

Abstract
This paper provides an overview of foreign experience in using panel data to assess various economic phenomena and processes. Note that this paper presents two types of models: panel vector autoregression model and vector autoregression model.
Abstract
This paper provides an overview of foreign experience in using panel data to assess various economic phenomena and processes. Note that this paper presents two types of models: [...]
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“IMPROVING THE METHODOLOGY OF TARIFF REGULATION AND ASSESSMENT OF THE TARIFF CONSEQUENCES OF LIBERALIZATION OF RELATIONS IN THE SPHERE OF HEAT SUPPLY»
O. Mozgovaya, B. Fayn, D. Agafonov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 19

Abstract
This paper presents the results of the scientific research "The Development of tariff regulation methodology and estimation of district heating liberalization effects”. The authors studied legislation of the price cap regulation on which the ‘No-MoreThan-Alternative-Boiler’ principle is based, constituting mechanisms of new economic relationships in the heating sector in Russia. The paper has studied the impact of the price cap regulation based on the ‘No-MoreThan-Alternative-Boiler’ principle established for the biggest unified heat supply companies operating in municipal areas where the heating market has completely transitioned to the new economic model as of the second half of 2021 (i.e. the transition period has ended). A lack of heat price explosion is noted; however, in 12 out of 15 unified heat supply companies studied, the conditions are in place for the consumer heating prices to rise faster than inflation in the next few years. According to the results of the research, the main problems of price cap regulation based on the ‘No-More-Than-Alternative-Boiler’ principle have been revealed, and practical recommendations for improving the mechanisms of ‘No-More-Than-Alternative-Boiler’ principle of the price regulation have been established.
Abstract
This paper presents the results of the scientific research "The Development of tariff regulation methodology and estimation of district heating liberalization effects”. [...]
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Professional qualifications of teaching staff of general and vocational education and training
G. Golub, L. Fishman, V. Prudnikova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 18

Abstract
The object of the research is the professional qualifications of teaching staff in the Russian general and vocational education and training system in the context of qualification requests of types of professional activity, requirements of the current professional standards, and the targets of national educational development programs. The purpose of the research is to scientifically substantiate and test in practice the technology of modeling prospective labor functions and the corresponding professional qualifications of teachers of the general education system in the context of changing demands of the labor market and customers of the education industry. Main results and conclusions. The qualification requirements to teachers of the general and vocational education and training system, as well as corresponding professional qualifications and characteristics, are provided in the descriptors of the Sectoral Qualifications Framework in Education. The actual labor functions of a teacher in the vocational education and training system, a form master, a methodologist have been established, as well as a list of prospective labor functions of the teaching staff, which need to be institutionalized in the short term to ensure adequate response by educational organizations to changing requirements and demands to the processes and results of its work. The research has revealed the value put on the relevance of actual labor functions and the demand for promising labor functions of teaching staff by the employers in the industry. The ideas of employers in the field of education about the ways of building a professional career as a teacher are summarized. Contradictions are revealed between industry employers’ recognition of the diversification of pedagogical activity context in an educational organization and the stable professional and social stereotype of a "universal teacher". The hypothesis of hybridization of labor functions as a basic way of development of the sectoral qualification system in the field of education has been confirmed
Abstract
The object of the research is the professional qualifications of teaching staff in the Russian general and vocational education and training system in the context of qualification [...]
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ANALYSIS OF COMPETITION DEVELOPMENT IN THE SPHERE OF ADDITIONAL EDUCATION
P. Gluhov, A. Popov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 17

Abstract
Today, the sphere of additional education for children is undergoing modernization processes, which, on the one hand, provide wider access to budget funds for private organizations and expand the individual capabilities of children, and on the other hand, are perceived by state organizations as restrictive measures aimed at withdrawing traditional funding. The processes of tightening the requirements and the development of supervision and control institutions in the originally liberal system of additional education for children are becoming noticeable. The purpose of the study is to identify qualitative trends in further development of the competitive environment and to propose optimal measures for neutralizing the negative effects hindering the development of the free market for educational services using empirical materials from the examination and analysis of the modernization progress in specific regions of the Russian Federation. The main methods include a full-scale assessment of the activities of organizational and managerial structures at the regional level with partial interviewing of the implementing subjects of the Target Model for the Development of Regional Systems of Continuing Education for Children, along with a high-quality examination of the documents adopted at the regional level. As a result of the study, it was possible to establish contradictions in the operations of educational systems at the municipal level, which indirectly result in unequal access to public funds for educational service providers, thereby limiting competition. As a result, a set of specific measures and changes in the regulatory framework is proposed to eliminate these contradictions. Further research prospects may be associated with a re-examination of the processes of modernization of regional systems of additional education for children, aimed at fixing established management models and assessing their effectiveness in terms of the private sector involvement, its legalization and institutional influence.
Abstract
Today, the sphere of additional education for children is undergoing modernization processes, which, on the one hand, provide wider access to budget funds for private organizations [...]
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TECHNOLOGICAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN RUSSIAN UNIVERSITIES: FACTORS OF CONTAINMENT AND ACCELERATION
N. Kurakova, V. Zinov, E. Olga, L. Tsvetkova, F. Kurakov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 16

Abstract
Relevance. The role of universities in contemporary social and economic systems of various countries is undergoing significant changes and involves the actualization of approaches to defining the functions of educational organizations. At the same time, university startups are viewed as the most dynamic elements of regional economies, capable of creating export-oriented science-intensive products and new high-tech jobs. The transformation and development of regional entrepreneurial ecosystems using universities as a trigger for academic entrepreneurship involves the stimulation by the authorities of the constituent entities of the federation of the start-ups establishment process by universities in cooperation with local or global enterprises of the real sector of the economy. The objective of this study is to analyze the factors that stimulate academic technological entrepreneurship, as well as barriers that impede the implementation of business ideas of university employees and students, related, inter alia, to the commercialization of the results of intellectual activity (RIAs). The subject of study is the individual elements of entrepreneurial ecosystems and the degree of their influence on the acceleration of the technological development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The study used general scientific analytical methods (case study, content analysis, comparative analysis). The sources of information were Russian and foreign scientific publications, official data of state authorities, the Bloomberg Terminal analytical system. Based on the results of the study, an overview of foreign practice of stimulating academic entrepreneurship is presented, key factors that determine the productivity of startup ecosystems of the world's leading universities and critical barriers that hinder the development of domestic technological entrepreneurial ecosystems are highlighted. The conducted study allows us to draw the following conclusions. In the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, it is not possible to find the entire set of basic factors that contribute to the involvement of RIAs created at the local universities into the regional economy, as well as the inclusion of startups founded by graduates or employees of universities in the horizontal network interaction. Critical barriers to the development of technological ecosystems include the following. There are no universities in the regions demonstrating global academic leadership (excellence). Academic entrepreneurship in regional universities of Russia is not institutionalized. Regional and national support for academic entrepreneurship does not include such an important element as creating a market for innovative university products at the regional, national and international levels. Universities have not created sufficient inter-university and intra-university venture and endowment funds, which causes a shortage of seed investments in technology projects developed on the basis of universities. Academic entrepreneurship is not facilitated by the structure of the existing body of young researchers, dominated by bachelors, while masters and graduate students only make up a small share of researchers. The low level of financial support for graduate students forces 90% of them to combine research activities with labor, and 80% of working graduate students find work outside the university, depriving the young researchers’ scientific and technological activities of a systemic nature. Most regional domestic universities still do not have an effective technology transfer system as a tool for harmonizing the interests of the authors of technical solutions and the university. The scientific novelty of the study is due to the proposed broad approach to the creation of legal conditions supporting deeper involvement of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and business in the management of universities and in the implementation of development programs. The study substantiates the need to radically relax legal regulation, control and supervisory activities in relation to universities and to enshrine in law the right to risk for those ready to implement ambitious development projects. It is shown that direct support of promising teams at universities requires more autonomy for educational and scientific departments of the universities, including the right of separation, and targeted grant support to world-class teams with the right to move to another university, which would involve a radical revision of the role and functions of the rectors and Boards of Directors of the Universities. The authors emphasize the need to change approaches to the management of the property complex of universities; review the approaches to mergers and acquisitions of universities and scientific organizations in order to fundamentally transform the university management system and open it to beneficiaries. The recommendations for accelerating the institutional transformation of regional universities in Russia into entrepreneurial universities and the formation of university ecosystems include using a set of measures aimed at solving the problem of attracting seed funding for student startups; transforming the university management systems and opening them to beneficiaries; building the students’ educational paths depending on the needs of the founding student's startup; creating a network of university technology transfer centers; reforming the graduate school and creating a favorable environment for technological creativity.
Abstract
Relevance. The role of universities in contemporary social and economic systems of various countries is undergoing significant changes and involves the actualization of approaches [...]
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MONITORING AND ANALYSIS OF THE ACHIEVABILITY OF RUSSIA'S NATIONAL GOALS, CONSIDERING THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Y. Pleskachev, Y. Ponomarev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 15

Abstract
Changes in all spheres of life due to the COVID-19 pandemic substantiate the relevance of this study. Its main objective was to assess the impact of the epidemic on the implementation of national projects and new national development goals. The subject of the research is theoretical and practical issues of building a system of strategic planning and monitoring of national goals, considering the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that updated national goals allowed setting the necessary accents, taking into account the impact of the pandemic; in particular, much more attention was paid to digital transformation. The main conclusion, as shown by a detailed examination, is that updating the goals and adjusting the passports of national projects made it possible to increase their interconnection with each other, and updating the Unified Plan for Achieving National Goals helped identify gaps in the set of measures aimed at achieving national goals. These gaps are intended to be filled by social and economic development initiatives that have been assessed in terms of their impact on the progress towards the national goals. Further areas of research include assessing the attainability of national goals depending on the success of updating the passports of national projects.
Abstract
Changes in all spheres of life due to the COVID-19 pandemic substantiate the relevance of this study. Its main objective was to assess the impact of the epidemic on the implementation [...]
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New trends in reproductive behaviour
A. Makarentseva, E. Seredkina

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 14

Abstract
To develop an effective demographic and family policy, one has to understand the reproductive behavior features and attitudes of the younger generations. These features largely determine the current and future fertility levels. Firstly, this study aims to analyze the prospects of childlessness in Russia. Secondly, we analyze mating and reproductive behavior as well as the reproductive attitudes of the generation born in the 1990s. We reviewed Russian and foreign literature in the field of mating and reproductive behavior, analyzed statistical data and findings of the representative surveys “Person, Family, Society” (2020), “Generations and Gender Survey” (2011) performed by the RANEPA Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting.
Abstract
To develop an effective demographic and family policy, one has to understand the reproductive behavior features and attitudes of the younger generations. These features largely [...]
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Digital transformation in assessments and perceptions of university teachers
D. Rogozin, O. Solodovnikova, E. Vyugovskaya

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 13

Abstract
This paper is based on the findings of the research work “Modern methodology for analyzing the process and effectiveness of distance education”, conducted by the team of the Field Research Center of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting (RANEPA) in 2021. Since the beginning of the pandemic, our colleagues at the Field Research Center have conducted three waves of survey among university teachers dedicated to the urgent transition to distance learning and the ongoing digital transformation of universities. The results of the last third wave (April-May 2021) are presented in this paper. The hypotheses proposed at the start of the project have been confirmed: the respondents’ attitude to distance learning gets back to normal over time, and “hybrid” or mixed form of education begins to be perceived as a norm. However, these processes continue to take place in contrast to the stagnant problems in higher education. The overlapping of problems that have arisen due to the complexity of the higher education administration reform at its different stages creates a diversity of risks and opportunities in the process of digital transformation. The authors of this work would like not only to describe the current situation and the objective difficulties accompanying any changes, but present a map of the “bottlenecks” of modern distance learning, the “anxious moods” of certain social groups within the teaching community. The attention focused on these groups can relieve the stress of the transition to distance learning.
Abstract
This paper is based on the findings of the research work “Modern methodology for analyzing the process and effectiveness of distance education”, conducted by the [...]
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Development of methodology and technologies for managing the health of people employed at life support enterprises and a continuous cycle in pandemic conditions
S. Kovalev, E. Yashina, K. Lukichev, P. Turzin, A. Generalov, A. Evseev

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 12

Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the urgent need to develop a health management system for workers employed at life support and continuous cycle enterprises in the conditions of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19). Subject of research: health management system for employees of life support and continuous cycle enterprises in the conditions of the pandemic. Objective: to develop approaches to human capital management at life-support and continuous cycle enterprises, excluding the possibility of downtime due to attrition (sick and quarantined staff) during pandemics and avoiding the risk of mass infection of workers with repeated waves of epidemics. Scientific novelty is determined by the development of new methods and technologies of the occupational health management system for workers at life support and continuous cycle enterprises in the conditions of pandemics. The study was conducted at RANEPA in 2021, using a set of analytical methods, questionnaires and programming. Methods: observation; surveys, system analysis, socio-economic analysis; comparative legal analysis; theory of multi-agent systems; formal analysis of historical phenomena; elements of the theory of expert systems, database creation. Results: Data from the analysis of the compliance of legal relations and international experience in managing workers’ health and the specifics of the organization of life support and continuous cycle enterprises during the COVID-19 pandemic; A model regulation on the health management service of life support and continuous cycle employees; A methodology for sociological research of organizational approaches by the subjects of the Russian Federation to ensure operation of continuous cycle enterprises in the conditions of increased emergency preparedness; Methodology of expert evaluation of investment projects in the field of workers’ health protection of workers and health management of workers at life support and continuous cycle enterprises during the actual pandemics; Methodological recommendations; Computer program "Interactive testing of knowledge in the field of healthy lifestyle, environmental well-being and prevention of coronavirus infection
Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the urgent need to develop a health management system for workers employed at life support and continuous cycle enterprises in the conditions [...]
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ASSESSMENT OF THE RIGIDITY OF INFORMATION FOR THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
A. Bozhechkova, P. Trunin, A. Evseev, M. Chembulatova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 11

Abstract
The duration of monetary shocks in the economy is often explained not just by price rigidity, but also by the slow dissemination of information and the inertia of economic agents' expectations. Many methods for the information rigidity assessment are presented in the foreign scientific literature, but few such works exist in Russia. Therefore, the study of the information rigidity in the Russian economy is highly relevant. The subject of the study is information rigidity. The goal of this work is to study monetary policy in Russia, considering price rigidity and information rigidity. To achieve the goal of the study, we set the following objectives: a review of the models of imperfect information and methods of validating the hypotheses of these models’ compliance with the factual data based on a review of theoretical and empirical literature, data collection, validating the hypothesis of existence of imperfect information, obtaining quantitative estimates of information rigidity using the data for Russia. Research methods include statistical and econometric methods of time series analysis. We used data of consensus forecasts of professional analysts from Bloomberg and Interfax agencies, forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development for the period from 2006 to 2020. Conclusions of the study: information rigidity was observed for forecasts of all macroeconomic indicators considered; the estimates of information rigidity vary for different macroeconomic variables; we also discovered a decrease in the degree of information rigidity during periods of increased instability in the economy. The results make it possible to explain the inertia in the response of macroeconomic variables to various shocks, including monetary policy shocks, and can be used in general equilibrium models.
Abstract
The duration of monetary shocks in the economy is often explained not just by price rigidity, but also by the slow dissemination of information and the inertia of economic [...]
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND THEORETICAL APPROACHES TO ANALYSIS OF TREND INFLATION
M. Kazakova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 10

Abstract
Today, trend inflation is one of the important components of monetary models, as well as an indicator of public confidence in the ongoing monetary policy. In addition, trend inflation is used when forecasting inflation over a long-term horizon. This explains the relevance of this work, which is aimed at illustrating the evolution of trend inflation concept (subject of the study), as well as determination of its place in macroeconomic models. A review of theoretical works analyzing the concept of trend inflation and its relationship with other macroeconomic indicators is aimed at achieving this goal. The study was conducted at the Center for the Study of Central Banking Problems as part of the RANEPA state assignment for 2021 using relevant academic literature and as the major source of information and such methods as descriptive, statistical, graphical analysis, a systematic approach, and comparative analysis. Analysis of trend inflation concept allows the authors to conclude that this indicator represents a long-term inflationary trend and is unobservable. In statistics, prices for food and raw materials characterized by high volatility, as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes, are excluded from the indicator of general inflation in order to identify a long-term trend in the dynamics of the general price level. In addition, trend inflation concept is widely used in macroeconomic modeling. In the future, this review can serve as a starting point for an econometric estimation of trend inflation for the Russian economy; study of trend inflation factors in Russia; analysis of changes in the magnitude and volatility of this indicator over time; as well as formulation of recommendations for the Russian monetary authorities.
Abstract
Today, trend inflation is one of the important components of monetary models, as well as an indicator of public confidence in the ongoing monetary policy. In addition, trend [...]
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Factor models of cryptocurrency profitability
E. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, M. Kuznetsova, K. Shilov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 9

Abstract
More than 12 years have passed since the debut of Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, but there is still no clear understanding of the essence of cryptocurrencies. At the same time, in recent years, interest in cryptocurrencies has continued to grow, and this financial instrument is becoming more and more attractive to individuals. Therefore, an issue of essence of cryptocurrencies is relevant. The main subject of the study is the profitability of cryptocurrencies. The main aim of this work is to identify the determinants of cryptocurrency returns. To achieve this goal, such tasks as the creation of factors reflecting the characteristics of the cryptocurrency market and the use of multifactor Fama-French models for the analysis of cryptocurrency returns were performed. Based on the collected daily data on capitalization, trading volumes and the price of more than 5,000 cryptocurrencies for the period from 01.04.2014 to 21.06.2021, standard factors based on capitalization indicators, trading volumes and the third momentum were built. The main estimation method is econometric modeling using the least squares method. The obtained results of an empirical study indicate a positive relationship between the profitability of groups of cryptocurrencies and the difference in the yields of the upper and lower 30% of cryptocurrencies according to the third moment. The difference in the yields of the lower and upper 30% of cryptocurrencies by market capitalization has a negative impact on the profitability of groups of cryptocurrencies. The main conclusion of the study is that before the beginning of high volatility period, cryptocurrencies could be considered as an asset for the diversification of market risk, but subsequently the cryptocurrency market began to move co-directionally to the stock market. The scientific novelty of the work stems from presenting an assessment of the impact of modeled factors on various groups (portfolios) of cryptocurrencies over certain periods of time. The study recommends to conduct further analysis of the profitability factors of cryptocurrencies on more homogeneous samples.
Abstract
More than 12 years have passed since the debut of Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, but there is still no clear understanding of the essence of cryptocurrencies. At the same [...]
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ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFICIENCY OF EXPENDITURE ON HOUSING AND UTILITIES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
I. Sokolov, S. Belev, I. Arlashkin, G. Kozlyakov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 8

Abstract
Relevance. The issue of assessing the effectiveness of spending on housing and utility services in Russia remains underexplored. The volume of public funds allocated to the “Housing and Utility Services” sector nationwide has grown 60.2% in 2020 compared to 2016; compared to the total government spending, the increase is from 3.2% in 2016 to 3.7% in 2020. Relatively high government spending on housing and utility services in Russia is associated with numerous sectoral problems – primarily, severe deterioration of fixed assets. The utilities infrastructure continues to deteriorate in literally every region of the country. The goal of this study is to assess the effectiveness of the extended government’s spending on the housing and utility services in the Russian Federation, to develop recommendations for changing the spending structure and volume. The of the study is the budget spending of the extended government of the Russian Federation for housing and utility services. The general research methodology consists of critical analysis and reasoning, a hypothetico-deductive method, case studies, generalization analysis and extrapolation (interpolation) of results. The main findings of the study are as follows: approaches were identified and model tools developed to assess the impact of the volume and structure of government spending on the efficiency of housing and utility services; Russian and international practice of legislative regulation and financing of the housing and utility services sector was analyzed; based on the formulated hypotheses on the conditions and factors affecting the efficiency of the housing and utility services in Russia and abroad, econometric modeling was carried out and the results were interpreted to test the hypotheses; proposals and recommendations were formulated to change the structure and volume of government spending on the housing and utility services. The findings of the study can be used in the interests of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance of Russia for the purpose of improving approaches to managing the costs of housing and utility services in the Russian Federation.
Abstract
Relevance. The issue of assessing the effectiveness of spending on housing and utility services in Russia remains underexplored. The volume of public funds allocated to the [...]
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Specifics of taxation of profits upon payment of dividends
N. Milogolov, A. Berberov

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 6

Abstract
Unlike other types of passive income, dividends are formed directly from the profit of a legal entity and thus, theoretically, can be taxed twice at the level of the company and the income recipient. Such disproportion in the conditions of economic activity creates several types of economic distortions, although tax conditions should not influence the economic agents’ decisions. The need to eliminate the disproportions determines the relevance of the topic, and the approach to its development determines the scientific novelty of this study. Thus, the goal of the work is to develop proposals for the harmonization of the taxation regime in the payment of dividends at the level of the company and its participants, including taking into account the problem of double taxation. In order to achieve this goal, the authors set the tasks that involve identifying the current features of the Russian tax legislation in terms of taxation on dividends, generalizing the relevant foreign experience, assessing the economic and fiscal consequences of different scenarios for reforming the current dividend taxation mechanism, and developing specific recommendations aimed at its improvement. The methodological basis of the study consisted of the following methods of scientific knowledge: historical and logical, statistical, induction and deduction, comparative analysis, synthesis, modeling, analogy, econometric, comparative legal. Based on the findings of the study, the authors made conclusions that economic distortions arising from double economic taxation when distributing profits in the form of dividends are characteristic of the Russian tax system; this is indicated, in particular, by the presence of 'debt bias' in the financing of Russian private companies, as well as the parallel existence of different taxation principles of capital gains and other income other than dividends (interest and licensing payments). The authors' recommendations present an interrelated system of measures aimed at improving the current model of dividend taxation, including a consideration of the new socio-economic challenges facing the Russian economy. The paper substantiates the expediency of transition to partial exemption of dividends from taxation at the individual level through harmonization of the dividends taxation regime with the system of capital gains taxation. In order to harmonize the rules of dividends taxation with the mechanism of controlled foreign companies, it is also justified to reduce the threshold of “substantial participation in the capital” to 25% while using a zero-profit tax rate for dividends received. The authors also justify the implementation of the “allowance for corporate equity” mechanism in the tax law, which would align the dividends and interest taxation principles and become an investment incentive to attract new equity capital for taxpayers. Prospects of research within the framework of this topic are related to the development of economic and legal signs indicating the payment of 'hidden dividends' by
Abstract
Unlike other types of passive income, dividends are formed directly from the profit of a legal entity and thus, theoretically, can be taxed twice at the level of the company [...]
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Impact analysis of automatic exchange of financial information in tax matters for business and natural persons
A. Koval, A. Levashenko

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 5

Abstract
The paper analyzes the legal relationship connected with the development of instruments for automatic exchange of tax information, which are being developed at the OECD level. Subject of the research is analysis of the automatic exchange instruments and the results of its implementation in the practice of states. Relevance of the research is based on the expanding use of automatic exchange of tax information between countries and the issues arising in connection with its application, the emergence of new tax programs aimed at increasing tax transparency. The goal of the study was to identify the issues of automatic exchange and develop proposals for the development of tax exchange instruments. Research methodology was based on the use of methods of logical, system, formal legal and comparative legal analysis. The authors analyze existing instruments for the automatic exchange of information on foreign accounts, cross-country reports on the activities of multinational corporations, and instruments for exchanging information on the sellers’ activities on e-commerce platforms. The research lays the foundations for the development of multilateral instruments for automatic exchange of tax information at the OECD level. To minimize the risks of tax evasion and improve the efficiency of the automatic exchange of tax information, the study proposes steps aimed at increasing the efficiency of Russia's participation in the OECD automatic exchange instruments - CRS MCAA and CbC MCAA. Based on the research, the following findings were made. First, based on the analysis of the legislation of individual countries and the first Peer Review published by the OECD in December 2020, one may conclude that most jurisdictions have a satisfactory legal framework, while in some countries, including Russia, it requires significant improvements. Second, a number of problems remain in the implementation of the standard for automatic exchange of information in Russia, which are primarily associated with the lack of effective mechanisms of responsibility for violation of self-certification and with the retention of currency control requirements. The results of the research include proposals for the development of automatic exchange instruments both on the OECD platform and in Russia.
Abstract
The paper analyzes the legal relationship connected with the development of instruments for automatic exchange of tax information, which are being developed at the OECD level. [...]
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Development of the tax incentive mechanism in the field of information technology
A. Korytin, N. Kostrykina, E. Melkova

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 7

Abstract
The relevance of the work is explained by the amendments to the tax legislation related to IT companies in Russia, the so-called “IT maneuver” adopted in 2021. Income tax and social insurance benefits were increased, while VAT exemption was reduced. In September 2021, the Government of the Russian Federation approved the second package of measures to support the IT industry, which includes several tax measures. The purpose of the second package is to increase the demand for domestic IT products, to accelerate digital transformation of the economy and social sphere, as well as to create favorable conditions for doing IT business in Russia. In this regard, the subject of our study is the mechanism of taxation and measures of tax policy for IT sector. The goal of the study is to analyze the effectiveness of tax incentives for the development and sale of products of IT industry with the aim of increasing the export of high value-added services, as well as assessing the impact of benefits on insurance premiums on the development of the information technology industry in Russia. The research method consists in analyzing domestic proposals for stimulating the IT industry as part of the “IT maneuver” and comparing them with foreign approaches to the development of the IT sector. To analyze the effectiveness of tax incentives, we use an empirical estimation of the dynamics of IT enterprises’ economic performance, which is then compared between two samples: 1) a sample of enterprises enjoying the IT benefit, and 2) a sample of enterprises that don’t have any benefits. The findings show that companies enjoying the IT benefit on social insurance payments significantly outpace companies that did not have the benefit in terms of economic growth. We draw a conclusion that the IT benefits encourage the development of the IT industry. The recommendations are to continue the expansion of incentives for the IT industry as part of the “IT maneuver”, taking into account various comments. In particular, it is necessary to develop additional measures to support small businesses in the IT sector, as well as to develop a mechanism against the use of IT benefits for tax optimization purposes only.
Abstract
The relevance of the work is explained by the amendments to the tax legislation related to IT companies in Russia, the so-called “IT maneuver” adopted in 2021. [...]
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Analysis of the impact of international standards for responsible business conduct on the financial sector in the world and in Russia: Formation of proposals for the development of regulation in Russia
I. Ermokhin, A. Levashenko

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 4

Abstract
This paper analyzes the impact of international standards for responsible business conduct on the financial sector in the world and in Russia, and formulates proposals for the development of regulation in Russia. The relevance of the work lies in the need to analyze the impact of international standards for responsible business conduct on the financial sector in the world and in Russia, as well as to formulate proposals for the development of appropriate regulation in Russia. The study was conducted in 2021. The object of the study is the standards for responsible business conduct in the financial sector. The goal of the study is to analyze the impact of international standards for responsible business conduct on the financial sector in the world and in Russia, and to formulate proposals for the development of regulation in Russia. The following results were obtained: an analysis of the recommendations and standards of international organizations, including the OECD, related to responsible business conduct in the financial sector and their impact on access to financing for Russian companies; an analysis of the approaches of the OECD member countries, including the EU, France, Japan, Canada, and other countries, including China, to the regulation of responsible business conduct in the financial sector and the impact of the regulations adopted by these countries on the Russian companies’ access to financing; an analysis of the practices of legal regulation of responsible business conduct in the financial sector in Russia and their impact on access to finance for Russian companies; formulated proposals for the development of legal regulation of responsible business conduct in the financial sector in Russia in order to ensure access to financing for Russian companies. The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of using its results for the development of regulatory documents aimed at the development of sustainable (green) financing in Russia, the formation of Russia's position on the OECD platform in relation to the developed standards of responsible financing.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the impact of international standards for responsible business conduct on the financial sector in the world and in Russia, and formulates proposals for [...]
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PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PAYMENT AND PAYMENT SYSTEMS AND ASSESSMENT OF RISKS IN NEW EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL CONDITIONS
S. Zubov, A. Vedev, M. Kovaleva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 3

Abstract
The object of the research is the interconnections arising in the process of operation of Russian and foreign payment systems. The goal of the study is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the risks faced by the settlement and payment systems operating in the context of the global recession, mounting sanctions against Russia, as well as the expected economic recovery and growth and the reorientation of production to new energy sources. Research methodology. In the course of the study, methods of scientific abstraction, economic and statistical analysis, functional and structural analysis, a systematic approach, a comparison method, graphical and tabular visualization techniques for statistical and other data, generalization and formalization were used. The project was carried out as part of the research work carried out by the Laboratory for Structural Research of the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in 2021. Research results: Description of the mechanisms of influence of organizational and technical factors on the state of the payment system and the implementation of cashless payments by commercial banks, Building a system of dependencies between the introduction of the latest payment systems and the development level of the financial market, as well as the main macroeconomic indicators, Analyzing traditional methods of risk assessment and management, proposing approaches to their improvement, Development of a methodology for backing up system-wide risk.
Abstract
The object of the research is the interconnections arising in the process of operation of Russian and foreign payment systems. The goal of the study is to conduct a comprehensive [...]
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES OF CAPITAL INVESTMENTS IN NATIONAL ECONOMY
O. Izryadnova, M. Kovaleva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 2

Abstract
An investment policy focused on the implementation of national sustainable growth goals is based on an analysis of competitive advantages, problems and opportunities for attracting investment and mutual strengthening of public and private financing of ambitious development projects at the federal and regional levels. The reaction of investment and construction activities in the context of a pandemic to a simultaneous reduction in demand and supply was fundamentally different from the traditional scheme of financial and economic crises in the framework of long retrospective periods. A peculiarity of the crisis was the rather high synchronization of lockdown measures in the domestic and world markets, which had an extremely painful effect on the nature of capital flows. The functioning of the economy under the conditions of falling aggregate domestic demand, reduced incomes and growing budgetary constraints has actualized the study of the issues of mobilizing investment resources and creating conditions for supporting the structural transformation of the priority economic sectors in the context of increasing competitiveness and productivity. In this regard, the activities needed to clarify the regulatory framework for stimulating and supporting capital investments, public-private partnerships, protecting property rights, providing guarantees and distributing risks were updated. Overcoming the consequences of the pandemic and restoring sustainable growth is considered in the paradigm of changing the role and participation of the state, business, general public, and financial markets in mobilizing resources and financing national programs and investment projects with an increase in the scale and structural shifts in the distribution of investments in fixed assets.
Abstract
An investment policy focused on the implementation of national sustainable growth goals is based on an analysis of competitive advantages, problems and opportunities for attracting [...]
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ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF STRESS RESISTANCE OF THE RUSSIAN BANKING SECTOR WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF RESTORING GROWTH UNDER CHANGED EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL CONDITIONS

S. Zubov, A. Vedev, M. Kovaleva

RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (2022). 1

Abstract
Relevance of the topic. In the conditions of increasing turbulence of the global business environment and instability of the financial system, rapid quantitative and qualitative transformations in the credit system under various financial, economic, social, political and other factors, banking supervision and regulation authorities, as well as the management of credit institutions are forced to constantly improve traditional approaches to assessing financial risks and develop new methods of early detection. In this regard, more and more attention is paid to a variety of stress testing methods that can determine the vulnerabilities of certain areas of banking and the banking system as a whole. The project was carried out as part of the research work carried out by the Laboratory for Structural Research of the Institute of Applied Econom