National development goals achievability analysis, as well as the impact of national projects on the achievement of these goals, has been conducted on an ongoing basis since the signing of Presidential Decree No. 204 of 7.05.2018 and represents a complex task. This study presents an attempt to build such a model based on machine learning methods. Several important points need to be taken into account while building such model: the ability to effectively take into account nonlinear dependencies between factors, the possibility of using large arrays of heterogeneous incoming data, taking into account the influence of macroeconomic factors, as well as the direct results of national projects on indicators of national development goals. With the help of the constructed model, a short-term forecast for 2022 was built for several indicators of national goals. As a part of the model this paper also analyzes the mutual impact of expenditures on national projects, as well as their contribution to the achievement of national development goals.

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Published on 27/12/23
Submitted on 19/12/23

Licence: CC BY-NC-SA license

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