Abstract

Abstract

The Risk Management Index, IGR, is an essential technical contribution of operation ATN / JF-7907-RG of the IDB, coordinated by the Institute of Environmental Studies, IDEA, of the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, sede Manizales, within the regional program on "Information and Indicators of Risk and Risk Management" for the Americas, promoted by the IDB, ECLAC and the IDEA between March 2003 and May 2005. It is a composite indicator based on a multi-attribute technique. It represents a series of risk factors that must be minimized through policies and actions to reduce vulnerability and through the maximization of resilience, that is, of the capacity to face and absorb the impacts of dangerous phenomena. Each composite index is made up of various factors that are represented by existing indicators or variables. For purposes of formulating the IGR, it was necessary to propose qualitative indicators, valued with subjective scales, due to the nature of the aspects that are evaluated and due to the lack of pre-existing parameters. The weighting of the indicators that constitute it was made based on the criterion of experts of each country, using numerical techniques consistent from the theoretical and statistical point of view. The IGR is the first systemic approach - based on fuzzy sets - that is used at the international, national and urban levels to assess the performance of risk management, in order to establish targets that improve the management effectiveness. Decision makers, at different territorial levels, now have a useful tool for monitoring the risk management and have the possibility to observe the relative position over time of the studied area and compare the obtained results with other countries, regions or cities. The strength of the IGR lies in the possibility of disaggregating the results and identifying the progress and deficiencies of risk management, with the aim of guiding the actions in order to improve its effectiveness. Its main objective is to stimulate decision-making.

Abstract

The system of indicators described in this monograph has been the main objective of the operation ATN / JF-7907-RG of the IDB, coordinated by the Instituto de  Environmental Studies, IDEA, of the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, sede Manizales, within the regional program on "Information and Risk Indicators and Risk Management" for the Americas, promoted by the IDB, ECLAC and the IDEA between March 2003 and May 2005. The purpose of the indicator system described herein is to assess vulnerability and risk, using relative indicators, to facilitate the decision makers of each country, region or city to have access to relevant information that allows them to identify and propose effective risk management actions, considering economic, social, institutional and technical aspects. This system of indicators makes possible the description of risk and risk management at the national, subnational and urban levels, facilitating the identification of the essential aspects that characterize it from an economic and social perspective, as well as comparing these aspects or the risks themselves among different countries or territorial units. The proposed indicators have been designed for measuring and monitoring purposes over time and for the identification of conditions of insecurity and their causes, using criteria related to the degrees of threat to which the territorial units are exposed and their socio-economic circumstances that influence their vulnerability. The system of indicators described here is framed within a holistic evaluation approach, which, due to its flexibility and possible compatibility with other specific evaluation approaches, will be increasingly used and accepted as one of the best options for the representation of risk and of its management, due to its complex and imprecise nature. Its strength lies in the possibility of disaggregating the results and identifying the factors towards which risk management actions should be oriented, in order to assess their effectiveness. Its main objective is to stimulate decision-making and not the precise evaluation of the risk that is commonly supported in the concept of physical truth.

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Abstract

Abstract

This technical note summarizes a technical comparison of common testing procedures, as well as reviewed of the UN Test N` 5, for the assessment of the self-heating properties of cargoes and materials that has shown a clear trend on maritime fire and explosions events, as well as considering of external factors that can combine self-heating and emit flammable gases to conclude in an unlikely event affecting the security of crews and ships. A high understanding of the external factors effect on the cargo materials certainly will help the application of spontaneous reactions management actions (SRMA) on board of ships during the cargo sea passage. The intended comparison is based on laboratory, industry and field observations and data, whereas the among the external factors considered are, moisture content, stockpile procedure and aging, air velocities and moderate pressures internal and externally to the cargo material. The comparison results have shown that the self-heating and the flammable gas emissions has a common pattern when reacting with any oxygen available source, regardless the reactive material chemical composition.

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Abstract

Relevance of the topic. In the conditions of increasing turbulence of the global business environment and instability of the financial system, rapid quantitative and qualitative transformations in the credit system under various financial, economic, social, political and other factors, banking supervision and regulation authorities, as well as the management of credit institutions are forced to constantly improve traditional approaches to assessing financial risks and develop new methods of early detection. In this regard, more and more attention is paid to a variety of stress testing methods that can determine the vulnerabilities of certain areas of banking and the banking system as a whole. The project was carried out as part of the research work carried out by the Laboratory for Structural Research of the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in 2021. Research method or methodology. The research work is based on the principle of consistency in the study of various economic phenomena, as well as the appropriate selection methods for the object of research. This use case assumes a variety of scientific and methodological tools: the use of methods of scientific abstraction, economic and statistical analysis, functional and structural analysis, a systematic approach, comparison methods, graphical and tabular techniques for visualizing statistical and other data, methods of expert analysis, methods of graphical modeling and others. Research results: an analysis was carried out to systematize approaches to stress testing, to develop criteria for ranking stress testing methods by areas of banking and by risk factors; stress testing models in the Russian banking system were optimized, tested and validated; prepared a scientific basis for the stability of the banking system in the event of extreme yet likely events.

Abstract

The Risk Management Index, RMI, proposed in this paper, brings together a group of indicators that measure risk management performance and effectiveness. These indicators reflect the organizational, development, capacity and institutional actions taken to reduce vulnerability and losses in a given area, to prepare for crisis and to recover efficiently from disasters. This index is designed to
assess risk management performance. It provides a quantitative measure of management based on predefined qualitative targets or benchmarks that risk management efforts should aim to achieve. The design of the RMI involved establishing a scale of achievement levels or determining the distance between current conditions and an objective threshold or conditions in a reference country, sub-national region, or city. The proposed RMI is constructed by quantifying four public policies, each of which is described by six indicators. The mentioned policies include the identification of risk, risk reduction, disaster management, and governance and financial
protection. Risk identification comprises the individual perception, social representation and objective assessment; risk reduction involves the prevention and mitigation; disaster management comprises response and recovery; and, governance and financial protection policy is related to institutionalization and risk transfer. Results at the urban, national and sub-national levels, which illustrate the application of the RMI in those scales, are finally given.