Abstract

To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%–22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%–8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

Abstract

This study reviewed the status of PM2.5 and tropospheric O3 observations in China (15–55°N, 72–136°E). Initially, the distribution of tropospheric O3 over the globe and China was determined based on satellite observations made during 2010–2013. The annual mean values were 29.78 DU and 33.97 DU over the globe and China, respectively. The distribution of PM2.5 and seasonal changes in concentrations in China were then simulated using an aerosol chemistry–climate coupled model system, with an annual mean value of 0.51 × 10−8 kg m−3 . The contributions from five different aerosols to the simulated PM2.5 concentrations in different seasons were also determined. The relationships among the emissions of aerosols, greenhouse gases and their precursors and radiative forcings were determined with reference to the (IPCC AR5) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the Fifth Assessment Report. From these relationships, the possible effects of controlling O3 precursors and (PM) particulate matter on the climate were considered. The influence of the control of O3 precursors was not totally clear, and reducing emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases and black carbon was considered a secondary measure for short-term (the next 50 years) climate-change mitigation. Reducing emissions of CO2 is still the best strategy for meeting the target of a global average rise in surface air temperature of less than 2 °C. Near- and short-term emission reduction strategies are important for both effective environmental protection and climate-change mitigation.