Abstract

Abstract

The relevance of the topic is related to the need to organize systems of macroeconomic analysis, as well as to improve the accuracy of forecasting in the Republic of Uzbekistan. In this regard, the development of a socio-economic development forecast for various scenarios that take into account risks and opportunities seems to be the most important task for the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The purpose of the study is to identify mechanisms and develop proposals for improving economic growth and investment attractiveness in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The subject of the study is the system of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting in the Republic of Uzbekistan in the medium term. The method or methodology of the study is based on the study of key current and retrospective data on the state of the sectors of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, highlighting the most important risks for building a medium-term forecast. As a result of the work carried out, the key components of the public sector, financial and credit markets were analyzed, and an assessment was made of the impact of the worsening external environment. Thus, the paper presents estimates of the prerequisites for the forecast and develops possible scenarios for the development of sectors of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of unique forecasts for the development of sectors of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The recommendations received as a result of the study indicate the need to develop mechanisms for responding to certain risks for the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, taking into account the possible consequences of such an impact presented in the forecast. 

Abstract

The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that the sharp changes in the sectors of the economy generated by the coronavirus pandemic have changed all existing development forecasts. At the same time, a number of new risks have emerged. In this regard, the development of a forecast for the development of economic sectors, taking into account risks and opportunities, seems to be the most important task for the Russian economy. The purpose of the study is to develop a forecast for key parameters of the socio-economic development of Russia, assess the risks of the forecast and develop tools for responding to risk situations, develop a forecast for the development of the financial sector in the Russian Federation in the medium term The subject of the study is the dynamics of the economic development of the Russian Federation in the medium term. The method or methodology of the study is based on the study of key current and retrospective data on the state of the sectors of the economy of the Russian Federation, highlighting the most important risks and building a medium-term forecast. Main research methods: economic observation, economic modeling, construction of economic hypotheses, historical analysis of economic phenomena, formalization and mathematization method, logical interpretation method, axiomatization method, analogy method As a result of the work carried out, the key components of the public sector, financial and credit markets were analyzed, and an assessment was made of the impact of the worsening external environment. Thus, the paper presents estimates of the prerequisites for the forecast and develops three possible scenarios for the development of sectors of the Russian economy. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of unique forecasts for the development of sectors of the Russian economy. The recommendations received as a result of the study indicate the need to develop mechanisms for responding to certain risks, taking into account the possible consequences of such an impact, presented in the forecast.

Abstract

The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that the sharp changes in the sectors of the economy caused by the coronavirus pandemic have affected all existing forecasts of socioeconomic development. At the same time, a number of new support measures have appeared, both at the federal level and at the regional level. In this regard, it is necessary to analyze the current support measures aimed at the development of economic sectors, taking into account risks and opportunities, which seems to be the most important task for the Russian economy. The purpose of the study was to study the effectiveness of industry support measures in a crisis caused by non-economic reasons. The subject of the study is the effectiveness of support measures in the context of the coronavirus pandemic and their contribution to the restoration of the economic activity of the Russian Federation. The research method or methodology is to conduct a comprehensive economic analysis, a review of research literature (Russian and foreign), an analysis of foreign practices in providing business support, an assessment of financial stability and the effectiveness of support measures in a pandemic As a result of the work carried out, the effectiveness of support measures in the context of the coronavirus pandemic and their contribution to the restoration of economic activity, both in foreign countries and in federal and regional support measures for Russia, were analyzed. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the analysis and application of the experience of foreign countries in Russian realities and the study of the contribution to the Russian economy of the impact of existing support measures. The recommendations obtained as a result of the study indicate the need to calculate the effectiveness of support measures before its introduction. The project was carried out as part of research work by the Laboratory for Structural Research of the IPEI RANEPA under the President of Russian Federation in 2022.