Система стратегического планирования: глобальные тенденции, внешние шоки и разработка подходов адаптации к ним

Abstract

An effective modern strategic planning system should be based on two basic concepts: resilience (resistance or stability against any shocks) and long-term sustainability (with special emphasis on long-term). It is the ability to adapt to modern realities that determines the relevance and effectiveness of the implementation of strategic planning documents. According to various estimates, a full frontal national strategy can “fade” completely within 4–5 years. For a regional or sectoral strategy, according to our estimates, this happens in 2-3 years, for urban - in one. In this regard, it is necessary to determine the factors contributing to the “fading” (forgetting) of strategic documents, and to identify the main approaches, which can be implemented to extend their relevance. The study is dedicated to the analysis of the applicability of existing economic concepts to ensure the solution of the modern problem of socio-economic development: improving the quality of life, ensuring the stability and viability (resilience) of the economic system without increasing economic growth and investment activity (like GDP growth and increase in investments raised) as well as to putting forward recommendations for updating methodological approaches to the development of strategic documents with the aim of creating an adaptive and up-to-date strategic planning system. It was revealed that the strategic planning documents being developed in Russia are static and not capable of responding to changes in the socio-economic, political, cultural situation, while the country’s socio-economic development strategy should be a response tool of state authorities to external challenges, a flexible tool that allows reconfiguring the public administration system to respond to these challenges. It was found that there are two groups of factors responsible for the “fading” of strategic documents: direct - arising from the end of the official validity period of the strategies or due to their cancellation by the authority responsible for the development and implementation of these documents, and indirect – arising from socio-economic transformations taking place in the field of strategic planning and influencing the achievement of the respective documents. According to the results of the analysis of the news background of 10 strategies at regional and municipal level, it was revealed that the “fading period” differs both between regions and municipalities, and between individual cities and regions, depending on the local institutional environment, activity level of the civil society, attitude to the strategy (“formal implementation of the rules” against an effectively working document), etc. Changes were also proposed to Law 172-FZ regarding revision of the existing principles of goal-setting, as well as special testing procedures to ensure the resilience and stainability of the documents.

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