This paper is devoted to the estimation of the Phillips curve for small open economies with the inclusion of the expected change in the real exchange rate of the ruble. The nonlinear generalized method of moments (CUE GMM) is used as an estimation method. According to the estimates obtained, the dynamics of inflation in Russia depends on external factors, in particular on expectations about changes in the terms of trade. At the same time, the role of expectations in the formation of inflation has undergone several significant changes. The first change is associated with the transition to the inflation targeting regime, the second with the outbreak of the pandemic. In addition, the rigidity of prices was also subject to changes under the influence of these factors.