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| − | ==1 Title, abstract and keywords<!-- Your document should start with a concise and informative title. Titles are often used in information-retrieval systems. Avoid abbreviations and formulae where possible. Capitalize the first word of the title. | + | ==Abtract== |
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| − | Provide a maximum of 6 keywords, and avoiding general and plural terms and multiple concepts (avoid, for example, 'and', 'of'). Be sparing with abbreviations: only abbreviations firmly established in the field should be used. These keywords will be used for indexing purposes.
| + | Hubbert based models to project future oil extraction in Ecuador were developed. Two values of ultimate recoverable resources (URR) (7860–10,700 million barrels (MMbbl)) are applied to 16 models, considering symmetric and asymmetric Hubbert models and one and two cycles under top-down and bottom-up approaches. Models are discussed based on the best fit to historical data, and year and value of maximum extraction. The peak oil extraction obtained ranges between 196 and 215 MMbbl and would be reached in the years 2014–2025. An analysis of the implications of extraction models in a Business as Usual and Alternative oil demand scenarios up to 2035 was performed. Ecuador could become a net oil importer between 2024 and 2035, depending on the model and demand scenario. Economic oil trade balance could be seriously affected, decreasing from a current positive value of around 2 billion USD to incur deficits of 0.6–16.7 billion USD in 2035. Current and future oil dependence for Ecuador would increase vulnerability and compromise the country in terms of energy security and trade balance. It is critical for Ecuador to consider more ambitious policies focused on energy efficiency, renewables and diversification of the productive structure over the next few years. |
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| − | An abstract is required for every document; it should succinctly summarize the reason for the work, the main findings, and the conclusions of the study. Abstract is often presented separately from the article, so it must be able to stand alone. For this reason, references and hyperlinks should be avoided. If references are essential, then cite the author(s) and year(s). Also, non-standard or uncommon abbreviations should be avoided, but if essential they must be defined at their first mention in the abstract itself. -->==
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| − | ==2 The main text<!-- You can enter and format the text of this document by selecting the ‘Edit’ option in the menu at the top of this frame or next to the title of every section of the document. This will give access to the visual editor. Alternatively, you can edit the source of this document (Wiki markup format) by selecting the ‘Edit source’ option.
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| − | Most of the documents in Scipedia are written in English (write your manuscript in American or British English, but not a mixture of these). Anyhow, specific publications in other languages can be published in Scipedia. In any case, the documents published in other languages must have an abstract written in English.
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| − | 2.1 Subsections
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| − | Divide your article into clearly defined and numbered sections. Subsections should be numbered 1.1, 1.2, etc. and then 1.1.1, 1.1.2, ... Use this numbering also for internal cross-referencing: do not just refer to 'the text'. Any subsection may be given a brief heading. Capitalize the first word of the headings.
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| − | 2.2 General guidelines
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| − | Some general guidelines that should be followed in your manuscripts are:
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| − | * Avoid hyphenation at the end of a line.
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| − | * Symbols denoting vectors and matrices should be indicated in bold type. Scalar variable names should normally be expressed using italics.
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| − | * Use decimal points (not commas); use a space for thousands (10 000 and above).
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| − | * Follow internationally accepted rules and conventions. In particular use the international system of units (SI). If other quantities are mentioned, give their equivalent in SI.
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| − | 2.3 Tables, figures, lists and equations
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| − | Please insert tables as editable text and not as images. Tables should be placed next to the relevant text in the article. Number tables consecutively in accordance with their appearance in the text and place any table notes below the table body. Be sparing in the use of tables and ensure that the data presented in them do not duplicate results described elsewhere in the article.
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| − | Graphics may be inserted directly in the document and positioned as they should appear in the final manuscript.
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| − | Number the figures according to their sequence in the text. Ensure that each illustration has a caption. A caption should comprise a brief title. Keep text in the illustrations themselves to a minimum but explain all symbols and abbreviations used. Try to keep the resolution of the figures to a minimum of 300 dpi. If a finer resolution is required, the figure can be inserted as supplementary material
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| − | For tabular summations that do not deserve to be presented as a table, lists are often used. Lists may be either numbered or bulleted. Below you see examples of both.
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| − | 1. The first entry in this list
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| − | 2. The second entry | + | |
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| − | 2.1. A subentry
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| − | 3. The last entry
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| − | * A bulleted list item
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| − | * Another one
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| − | You may choose to number equations for easy referencing. In that case they must be numbered consecutively with Arabic numerals in parentheses on the right hand side of the page. Below is an example of formulae that should be referenced as eq. (1].
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| − | 2.4 Supplementary material
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| − | Supplementary material can be inserted to support and enhance your article. This includes video material, animation sequences, background datasets, computational models, sound clips and more. In order to ensure that your material is directly usable, please provide the files with a preferred maximum size of 50 MB. Please supply a concise and descriptive caption for each file. -->==
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| − | ==3 Bibliography<!--
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| − | Citations in text will follow a citation-sequence system (i.e. sources are numbered by order of reference so that the first reference cited in the document is [1], the second [2], and so on) with the number of the reference in square brackets. Once a source has been cited, the same number is used in all subsequent references. If the numbers are not in a continuous sequence, use commas (with no spaces) between numbers. If you have more than two numbers in a continuous sequence, use the first and last number of the sequence joined by a hyphen
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| − | You should ensure that all references are cited in the text and that the reference list. References should preferably refer to documents published in Scipedia. Unpublished results should not be included in the reference list, but can be mentioned in the text. The reference data must be updated once publication is ready. Complete bibliographic information for all cited references must be given following the standards in the field (IEEE and ISO 690 standards are recommended). If possible, a hyperlink to the referenced publication should be given. See examples for Scipedia’s articles [1], other publication articles [2], books [3], book chapter [4], conference proceedings [5], and online documents [6], shown in references section below. -->==
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| − | ==4 Acknowledgments<!-- Acknowledgments should be inserted at the end of the document, before the references section. -->==
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| − | ==5 References<!--[1] Author, A. and Author, B. (Year) Title of the article. Title of the Publication. Article code. Available: http://www.scipedia.com/ucode.
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| − | [2] Author, A. and Author, B. (Year) Title of the article. Title of the Publication. Volume number, first page-last page.
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| − | [3] Author, C. (Year). Title of work: Subtitle (edition.). Volume(s). Place of publication: Publisher.
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| − | [4] Author of Part, D. (Year). Title of chapter or part. In A. Editor & B. Editor (Eds.), Title: Subtitle of book (edition, inclusive page numbers). Place of publication: Publisher.
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| − | [5] Author, E. (Year, Month date). Title of the article. In A. Editor, B. Editor, and C. Editor. Title of published proceedings. Paper presented at title of conference, Volume number, first page-last page. Place of publication.
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| − | [6] Institution or author. Title of the document. Year. [Online] (Date consulted: day, month and year). Available: http://www.scipedia.com/document.pdf.
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Hubbert based models to project future oil extraction in Ecuador were developed. Two values of ultimate recoverable resources (URR) (7860–10,700 million barrels (MMbbl)) are applied to 16 models, considering symmetric and asymmetric Hubbert models and one and two cycles under top-down and bottom-up approaches. Models are discussed based on the best fit to historical data, and year and value of maximum extraction. The peak oil extraction obtained ranges between 196 and 215 MMbbl and would be reached in the years 2014–2025. An analysis of the implications of extraction models in a Business as Usual and Alternative oil demand scenarios up to 2035 was performed. Ecuador could become a net oil importer between 2024 and 2035, depending on the model and demand scenario. Economic oil trade balance could be seriously affected, decreasing from a current positive value of around 2 billion USD to incur deficits of 0.6–16.7 billion USD in 2035. Current and future oil dependence for Ecuador would increase vulnerability and compromise the country in terms of energy security and trade balance. It is critical for Ecuador to consider more ambitious policies focused on energy efficiency, renewables and diversification of the productive structure over the next few years.
