Future oil extraction in Ecuador using a Hubbert approach

Abtract

Hubbert based models to project future oil extraction in Ecuador were developed. Two values of ultimate recoverable resources (URR) (7860–10,700 million barrels (MMbbl)) are applied to 16 models, considering symmetric and asymmetric Hubbert models and one and two cycles under top-down and bottom-up approaches. Models are discussed based on the best fit to historical data, and year and value of maximum extraction. The peak oil extraction obtained ranges between 196 and 215 MMbbl and would be reached in the years 2014–2025. An analysis of the implications of extraction models in a Business as Usual and Alternative oil demand scenarios up to 2035 was performed. Ecuador could become a net oil importer between 2024 and 2035, depending on the model and demand scenario. Economic oil trade balance could be seriously affected, decreasing from a current positive value of around 2 billion USD to incur deficits of 0.6–16.7 billion USD in 2035. Current and future oil dependence for Ecuador would increase vulnerability and compromise the country in terms of energy security and trade balance. It is critical for Ecuador to consider more ambitious policies focused on energy efficiency, renewables and diversification of the productive structure over the next few years.