Abstract

This paper describes a new weather generator – the 10-state empirical model – that combines a 10-state, first-order Markov chain with a non-parametric precipitation amounts model. Using a doubly-stochastic transition-matrix results in a weather generator for which the overall precipitation distribution (including both wet and dry days) and the temporal-correlation can be modified independently for climate change studies. This paper assesses the ability of the 10-state empirical model to simulate daily area-average precipitation in the Torne River catchment in northern Sweden/western Finland in the context of 3 other models: a 10-state model with a parametric (Gamma) amounts model, a wet/dry chain with the empirical amounts model, and a wet/dry chain with the parametric amounts model. The ability to accurately simulate the distribution of multi-day precipitation in the catchment is the primary consideration. Results showed that the 10-state empirical model represented accumulated 2- to 14-day precipitation most realistically. Further, the distribution of precipitation on wet days in the catchment is related to the placement of a wet day within a wet-spell, and the 10-state models represented this realistically, while the wet/dry models did not. Although all four models accurately reproduced the annual and monthly averages in the training data, all models underestimated inter-annual and inter-seasonal variance. Even so, the 10-state empirical model performed best. We conclude that the multi-state model is a promising candidate for hydrological applications, as it simulates multi-day precipitation well, but that further development is required to improve the simulation of interannual variation.

Abstract

Supernetworks have long been adopted to address multi-dimensional choice problems, which are thorny to solve for classic singular networks. Originated from combining transport mode and route choice into a multi-modal network, supernetworks have been extended into multi-state networks to include activity-travel scheduling, centered around activity-based models of travel demand. A key feature of the network extensions is that multiple choice facets pertaining to conducting a full activity program can be modeled in a consistent and integrative fashion. Thus, interdependencies and constraints between related choice facets can be readily captured. Given this advantage of integrity, the modeling of supernetwork has become an emerging topic in transportation research. This paper summarizes the recent progress in modeling multi-state supernetworks and discusses future prospects. Document type: Article