Abstract

Digital transformation is one of the national development objectives for Russia up to 2030. Its key implementation instruments at the federal level are ministerial digital transformation programs. The performance objectives of these programs developed in late 2020 establish a medium-term digital transformation agenda. Therefore, it is highly urgent and relevant to analyze such programs. Thegoal of this paper is to evaluate the potential impact of ministerial digital transformation programs on improving the quality of public services and regulatory enforcement functions. The subject of the report includes 43 ministerial digital transformation programs for 2021 – 2023 published as of March 1, 2021. The paper uses qualitative and quantitative analytical methods, including performance management methodology assuming differentiation of impacts, intermediate outcomes, and outputs. The novelty of the study is related both to the novelty of ministerial digital transformation programs, which have not been the subject of scientific analysis to date, and application of a methodology for evaluating benefits from government digital transformation for external beneficiaries (i.e., citizens and businesses). The results include a review of ministerial digital transformation programs and the assessment of their potential impact on improving the quality of public service delivery and effectiveness of state regulatory enforcement. The paper analyses the expected outcomes of digital transformation of 322 federal public services and 82 regulatory enforcement functions. Conclusions. The study demonstrates that while the targets on broadening digital interaction with citizens and businesses are ambitious both in public service delivery and in regulatory enforcement and control domain, the impact of government digital transformation on citizens, businesses, and public administration itself is either underestimated or neglected. Digital transformation of federal executive authorities is deemed to be a goal in itself, not a means for improving the governance quality. The indicators used to measure the digitalization of public services and functions do not account for digital transformation risks, including possible extra administrative costs for businesses, associated with remote regulatory control. The recommendations developed based on the study findings suggest the need to correct the existing approaches to developing digital transformation performance indicators at the ministerial level and implementing the practice of cost-benefit analysis of digital initiatives in the public sector.