Abstract

Global climate change promotes the energy system reform. Achieving a high proportion of renewable energy becomes the major countries' energy strategy. As proposed in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), China intends to raise the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption to about 20% by 2030. That ambitious goal means the non-fossil energy supplies by 2030 will be 7–8 times that of 2005, and the annual increase rate is more than 8% within the 25 years. Besides, the capacity of wind power, solar power, hydropower and nuclear power reaches 400 GW, 350 GW, 450 GW, and 150 GW respectively, and Chinas non-fossil power capacity is even greater than the U.S.s total power capacity. In addition, the scale of natural gas increases. Consequently, by 2030, the proportion of coal falls from the current 70% to below 50%, and the CO2 intensity of energy consumption decreases by 20% compared with the level of 2005, which play important roles in significantly reducing the CO2 intensity of GDP. Since China has confirmed to achieve the CO2 emissions peak around 2030, at that time, the newly added energy demand will be satisfied by non-fossil energy, and the consumption of fossil fuel will stop growing. By 2030, non-fossil energy accounts for 20%, and the large scale and sound momentum of new and renewable energy industry will support the growth of total energy demand, which plays a key role in CO2 emissions peaking and beginning to decline, and lays the foundation for establishing a new energy system dominated by new and renewable energy in the second half of the 21st century as well as finally achieving the CO2 zero-emission.

Abstract

Mountain glaciers in China are an important water source for both China and adjoining countries, and therefore their adaptation to glacier change is crucial in relation to maintaining populations. This study aims to improve our understanding of glacial vulnerability to climate change to establish adaptation strategies. A glacial numerical model is developed using spatial principle component analysis (SPCA) supported by remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) technologies. The model contains nine factors—slope, aspect, hillshade, elevation a.s.l., air temperature, precipitation, glacial area change percentage, glacial type and glacial area, describing topography, climate, and glacier characteristics. The vulnerability of glaciers to climate change is evaluated during the period of 1961–2007 on a regional scale, and in the 2030s and 2050s based on projections of air temperature and precipitation changes under the IPCC RCP6.0 scenario and of glacier change in the 21st century. Glacial vulnerability is graded into five levels: potential, light, medial, heavy, and very heavy, using natural breaks classification (NBC). The spatial distribution of glacial vulnerability and its temporal changes in the 21st century for the RCP6.0 scenario are analyzed, and the factors influencing vulnerability are discussed. Results show that mountain glaciers in China are very vulnerable to climate change, and 41.2% of glacial areas fall into the levels of heavy and very heavy vulnerability in the period 1961–2007. This is mainly explained by topographical exposure and the high sensitivity of glaciers to climate change. Trends of glacial vulnerability are projected to decline in the 2030s and 2050s, but a declining trend is still high in some regions. In addition to topographical factors, variation in precipitation in the 2030s and 2050s is found to be crucial.

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract