Abstract

Currently many sectors of the Russian economy, including the fuel and energy sector, are undergoing structural changes. This is due both to the energy transformation (a significant change in the structure of the energy balance) and the recent events of 2022. The article analyzes how these changes will affect the Russian energy sector. Firstly, the risks of reducing natural gas exports to the EU countries are assessed. Gas supplies to the EU are a significant part of Russia's export earnings, and the supplies themselves are difficult to redirect to other directions. Secondly, it is analyzed how recent changes will affect the development of the energy sector using the example of two scenarios for the development of the energy industry before and after 2022. Finally, it is assessed how the changes that have taken place will affect the effectiveness of an active climate policy in Russia. The possibility of a reduction in domestic demand for gas in the EU or an increase in production is unlikely. However, an increase in LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports is possible, which may allow the EU to abandon natural gas imports from Russia in the coming years. EU nominal regasification capacity allows for a potential increase in EU LNG imports by 110 billion cubic meters per year. This can be done both by redirecting supplies from other countries to the EU, and by increasing production and liquefaction of LNG. As a result of an increased sanctions pressure, with a high degree of probability, without an active climate policy, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will increase significantly. In addition to climate effects and associated negative environmental impact, this also negatively affects the prospects for economic development. Thus, greater consumption of fossil fuels makes the economy more dependent on their prices and reduces the potential for an increase in the volume of export. An analysis of decarbonization scenarios has shown that because of the recent events, an active climate policy will cost more, with more modest results.