Abstract

Due to the changes in the geo-economic situation at the beginning of 2022, the focus of this research is shifted from the general analysis of foreign trade strategies of foreign countries to the study of trade policies of key countries against Russia (including common approaches and sanctions), as well as the response of the Russian side. This approach determines the novelty and relevance of this study. The significance of the work is determined by the research in scientific and applied aspects of the problems of forming common priorities and tools in trade policy of the leading countries of the world, which depend on the global scientific and technological development. Trade policy is a purposeful activity of the state to promote and protect the interests of national business in global markets. The results of the study indicate attempts to create and consolidate new rules of the world economy based on the concept of energy transition and technological breakthrough, which has a negative impact on the established rules of the world economy and international trade. 

Abstract

Over the past century, as one of the main trends in international trade, one should note the noticeable liberalization of trade throughout the world, this trend is still widely supported today in the activities of many economic associations, ranging from the activities of the WTO and the IMF to the activities of economic associations in within the framework of regional trade agreements, for example, the EAEU, the EU and others. Along with the trend towards globalization, there is a decrease in non-tariff barriers to trade in goods and services, and other obstacles to capital flows. The issue of countries taking part in integration processes is widely discussed and debatable, as the object of study is the economies of the EAEU countries, the EU and the economies of Russia's key trading partners. The purpose of the study is to assess the consequences (macroeconomic and sectoral) for the EAEU countries from the implementation by various countries of a number of provisions of agreements governing the functioning of potential integration associations that include the EAEU, and, based on the estimates obtained, to form a profile of foreign trade policy strategies for the EAEU countries, taking into account internal and external situations for choosing the optimal integration directions of the EAEU. The results of the study presented in this paper are as follows: Calculations based on data in the form of a global matrix of social accounts for 2019 showed that under any bilateral scenario of Russia's integration with the 16 listed on the EAEU site, Russia is unlikely to be able to achieve an increase of more than half a percent of GDP. At the same time, no significant industry risks are expected for it. As the country-by-country analysis of the games showed, with the simultaneous entry of several countries into the EAEU, there are no noticeable synergy effects and Russia's gains are approximately equal to the sum of the gains from agreements with each of the partners.

Abstract

The first part of the research studies theoretical approaches, models and factors in determining the structural transformation of the world economy and presents some empirical assessments. The object of this study is trade and economic cooperation of the CIS countries in the context of structural transformation of the world economy and new trade and political restrictions introduced against Russia and Belarus, which have a significant impact on the entire system of foreign economic relations. The aim of the study is to assess the changes in the level of integration in different spheres of Russia, the EU, China with the CIS countries and CIS countries among themselves and the impact of sanctions against Russia and Belarus on the CIS countries. The relevance of the work is justified by the transformation of economic ties of the CIS countries, the forced need for Russia to search for new international transport and logistics routes and financial schemes and the processes of transformation of the system of international economic relations, which together form a new economic reality for the CIS. The paper uses an empirical method of quantitative data research, econometric method of calculating various indicators and indices, as well as systemic analysis. The main results of the study consist in analyzing changes in the conditions of trade and economic cooperation of post-Soviet countries and integration in different spheres in 2022, including interrupted projects, including those with third countries.

Abstract

Inevitably, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that exist in trade between countries generate rents associated with them, which can either be distributed in some ratio between trading partners or dissipate, thereby leading to a loss of resources. The valuation of these rents and their distribution is not an easy task, because the effect of NTBs in their entirety is usually difficult to quantify due to the different nature of the trade restrictions that make up NTBs. Nevertheless, in the light of the global trend towards tariff liberalization that has been going on for more than a hundred years, this task sometimes becomes more important in the study of trade than classical studies of the impact of import and/or export tariffs, since NTB rents can multiply tariff revenue. One of the possible tools for modeling the impact of NTBs on the economies of various countries (and in particular on the domestic prices of goods), taking into account the existing trade relations between states, are static CGE trading models (from the English Computable General Equilibrium models computable general equilibrium models). One of the objectives of this study is to prepare our own database based on the most recent available statistical data, similar in structure to the GTAP 10 database, but with a smaller number of regions and supplemented with information about the ad valorem equivalents of the goods we are interested in in the context of trading partners. As the results in this study, the following aspects of the work carried out can be distinguished, such as a review of the literature on existing approaches to assessing the imbalances of economies generated by NTM, as well as an analysis of trade in goods and services between the EAEU countries and their main partners, which is necessary for interpreting the results of the numerical modeling stage, a scheme for preparing input data for calibration of the used CGE models.

Abstract

Abstract

The statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) for 2017 published in early April by the Central Bank of Russia shows a change in the dynamics of an increase in FDI inflows to the Russian Federation that was outlined in 2016 and in the first three quarters of 2017. The slowdown in capital inflows in 4Q 2017 reflected the deteriorating sentiment of foreign investors associated with negative expectations of new US sanctions, as well as a drop in demand for Russian government bonds.

Positive investor sentiment was reflected by the positive dynamics of FDI flows in the first three quarters of 2017, when the level of incoming FDI amounted to USD 24.8 billion, which is more than 2 times compared to the same period in 2016. The increase in inflows over this period is due to transactions such as the sale of a 10% stake in the Russian petrochemical holding Sibur to the Chinese Silk Road Fund, the launch of the construction of a Mercedes-Benz automobile plant by the German company Daimler in the Esipovo industrial park, which became the first largest project after the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions by the Western company in Russia.

Existing assessments of the impact of sanctions on key macroeconomic indicators provide a rough understanding of their significance for foreign investors. Under the new conditions, foreign investors developed their own approaches to respond to the sanctions regime, depending on their sectoral specialization and the degree of orientation towards the Russian and/or foreign markets. Nevertheless, according to the results of 2017, the volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) attracted to Russia from the EU countries exceeded USD 14 billion (which is more than 6 times the level of 2016). Consequently, a high potential for investment cooperation remains between Russia and the EU countries, despite the sanctions regime.

Relevance of the study: portfolio and foreign direct investment are an important source of capital that complements domestic private investment and is often associated with creating new jobs, stimulating technological exchange and encouraging overall economic growth in host countries. Important factors in FDI inflows are the level of the exchange rate and its volatility. The need for an empirical analysis of the impact of the exchange rate on FDI inflows to Russia is caused by the currency crisis of 2014-2015, when the Russian ruble devalued due to the fall in world oil prices, as well as a number of foreign policy events.

The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the level of the exchange rate and its trend on the inflow of direct and portfolio foreign investment in the Russian Federation. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks will be solved:

– Review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the role of the exchange rate in the inflow of foreign investment;
– Analysis of foreign direct investment flows in Russia and in the world;
– Building models that take into account the impact of the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia on the inflow of foreign direct investment in the sectors of the Russian economy;
– Evaluation of econometric models to study the influence of the exchange rate on the inflow of foreign direct investment to the countries of the world in order to test the hypotheses put forward in the work;
– Interpretation of the results and development of recommendations for the

Russian foreign economic policy, taking into account the results of the study.
The initial data of the work were statistical databases, both international and Russian, in particular, open statistical data provided by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Eurasian Economic Commission, regulatory and program documents regulating the activities of the regions of the Russian Federation with a special (special legal) regime for the implementation of entrepreneurial and other activities, as well as cases of the largest and most successful investment projects implemented on the territory of individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation.