Abstract

There is a lack of complex regional analysis studies in the economic research landscape. The relevance of this study has to do with the Russian government’s high interest in identifying the main trends and factors of non-commodity-based development in the 21st century. Obviously, a significant part of Russia’s national wealth is associated with the extractive sector, which limits the scope for economic diversification and can negatively affect Russia's long-term development.

The novelty of this research is that it provides complex regional analysis over the past 20 years. The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of using its findings to prepare policy recommendations, and to assess the impact of the decisions implemented.

The aim of the research was to identify long-term trends and patterns of socioeconomic development in the Russian regions. The objectives were to observe the dynamics of a set of socioeconomic development indicators in various regions and identify spatial patterns of non-commodity growth.

The work uses such scientific research methods as statistical analysis and graph-analytical methods, comparative-historical and cartographic methods.

During the work, the following results were obtained:

the overall growth dynamics of non-resource sectors of the Russian economy in the past 20 years has been determined by changes in the macroeconomic, geopolitical and institutional conditions; the global economic crisis of 2008, the introduction of anti-Russia sanctions and the import substitution policy in 2014-2015 have had the greatest impact on structural changes in the economy;

gross regional product and GRP excluding extractive industries doubled or more in the period between 1998-2008 in most regions; after 2008, however, growth rates were close to zero in many regions, which caused a growing lag behind developed economies;

in recent years, the share of investment in GRP and R&D spending have dropped to low values as in the early 2000s in most regions;

internet access, and average years of schooling have been growing almost continuously in most regions;

the air emissions to GRP ratio has been decreasing with the growing share of the service sector and the development of technologies, but has slightly increased in recent years due to motorization.

Conclusions. Over the past 20 years, the regions with the largest conurbations that have lost many industrial features but have formed a service consumer economy have undergone the most significant transformation. The oil-producing regions in northern Russia, while showing significant per capita GRP, have not been able to fully diversify their economies and are dependent on fluctuations in energy prices. Many agricultural regions have benefited from the implementation of counter-sanctions, as the government supported large agricultural holdings. Certain regions have vigorously attracted investment through proactive policies: the Kaluga, Belgorod, Leningrad, and Tomsk regions. Most of the Far Eastern regions have been losing population and economic potential.

As part of a long-term study, further research may include the identification of factors of non-resource development, its complex estimation with the use of indexes, estimation of the impact of the extractive industries on regional economic growth, as well as assessing the regions’ potential to improve the quality of education for technological development.

This paper is based on research findings delivered in accordance with the State Assignment for RANEPA in 2021