Abstract

A better understanding of which biological and anthropogenic parameters are strong predictors of suitable habitats for tigers will help address conservation planning in those areas, which is crucial for maintaining connectivity and preventing further population fragmentation. The aim of this study was to develop a spatial model based on a number of environmental and anthropogenic variables as well as tiger presence data from a 2005 large-scale winter survey to predict Amur tiger distribution within its range in the RFE. Modeling the geographic distribution of Amur tigers required an application of the MaxEnt algorithm using a dataset of 1027 tiger track records and a set of environmental variables, such as distance to rivers, elevation and habitat type, and anthropogenic variables, such as distance to forest and main roads, distance to settlements and vegetation cover change. The models were divided into two groups based on elevation and habitat type. Elevation (AUC = 0.821) appeared to be a better predictor of habitat suitability for tigers than habitat type (AUC = 0.784).

Abstract

In the beginning of 19th century, the range (areal) of Panthera tigris altaica included the forest part of the Korean Peninsula, the northern provinces of China, and the left bank of the Amur River in Russia and approached Transbaikalia and Yakutia. By the late 1930s, the number of tigers in Russia had decreased to 20–30 individuals. Protections against hunting (1947), the entrapment of tiger cubs (1965), and a lack of a market for tiger derivatives contributed to growth in tiger numbers. By the 1960s, the tiger population in Russia had increased to 100–110 individuals. According to a count in 1970, the population of tigers had reached 140–150 individuals. At this point in time, the range covered the forest territory of Primorsky Krai and southern Khabarovsky Krai. The last two total counts (1995–96 and 2004–05) revealed a further increase in the numbers to 450–500 animals and a range of 156, 000 km2 . The latest recordings have confirmed the maximum numbers of tigers in the Sikhote-Alin and Lazovsky reserves and adjacent territories. However, the small areas of the reserves and their territorial separation preclude the maintenance of or increases in the population to or beyond 400–500 adult animals, which in genetic terms, would ensure the long-term conservation of the tiger. Further conservation of the region requires the assignment of two protective zones of 45, 000–50, 000 km2 with centres in the Sikhote-Alin and Lazovsky reserves. Within these protective zones, economic development involving any type of forest felling or ungulate hunting should be fully prohibited. The creation of protective zones is the only route to preserving the natural complex of the Sikhote-Alin, including the Amur tiger in Russia.