Backcasting as a tool to develop a sustainable transport scenario assuming emission reductions of 80-90%

Abstract

This article will summarise the results of The Netherlands pilot study commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, and carried out by the Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). This pilot study differed from existing sustainable transport scenario studies for four reasons: (i) very sharp emission reductions are assumed, (ii) not only 'forecasting' but also 'backcasting' scenarios are constructed, (iii) instrument packages and implementation time paths are described which - if carried out - would result in the necessary technological and behavioural changes to realize environmentally sustainable transport, and (iv) the social and economic impact of sustainable transport is assessed.