PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR AIRPORT RUNWAY SAFETY AREAS

Abstract

The Laboratory of Aviation Safety and Security at CTU in Prague has recently started a project aimed at runway protection zones. The probability of exceeding by a certain distance from the runway in common incident/accident scenarios (take-off/landing overrun/veer-off, landing undershoot) is being identified relative to the runway for any airport. As a result, the size and position of safety areas around runways are defined for the chosen probability. The basis for probability calculation is a probabilistic model using statistics from more than 1400 real-world cases where jet airplanes have been involved over the last few decades. Other scientific studies have contributed to understanding the issue and supported the model’s application to different conditions.

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The different versions of the original document can be found in:

• http://www.exeley.com/exeley/journals/transport_problems/12/2/pdf/10.20858_tp.2017.12.2.9.pdf under the license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by

• https://zenodo.org/record/1122097 under the license cc-by

• http://transportproblems.polsl.pl/pl/Archiwum/2017/zeszyt2/2017t12z2_09.pdf,

https://doaj.org/toc/1896-0596,

https://doaj.org/toc/2300-861X under the license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode

• http://yadda.icm.edu.pl/yadda/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-d41e5ebb-ef64-47b6-a040-d42b19769730,

https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2978610955

• https://www.exeley.com/exeley/journals/transport_problems/12/2/pdf/10.20858_tp.2017.12.2.9.pdf,

http://dx.doi.org/10.20858/tp.2017.12.2.9