Prediction and Use of Contrail Frequency Index for Contrail Reduction Strategies

Abstract

Methods have been proposed to reduce aircraft-induced contrails by on-board sensing and strategic planning. This paper describes a class of indices that predict potential aircraft-induced contrail formations one to six hours in advance. The indices can be used to identify air traffic control centers and altitudes with high potential for contrail formation. The results show that the index is affected more by the changing atmospheric conditions than by small daily variations in the nominal traffic. The analysis shows that the one-hour predicted contrail frequency index is highly correlated with the actual contrail frequency, with an average correlation coefficient of 0.85. The correlation coefficient is lower with longer prediction time, down to 0.52 for six-hour prediction. The average success rates for identifying air traffic control centers and altitudes with high contrail frequency are as high as 83.47% for one-hour prediction.