MACHINE LEARNING METHODS FOR EVALUATING HETEROGENEOUS EFFECTS IMPACTS AND THEIR APPLICATION TO ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE PRODUCTIVITY OF INDIVIDUAL FIRMS AS A RESULT OF THEIR EXPORT MARKETS

Abstract

It is widely known that exporters are, on average, larger firms
than exporters. In other words, the larger firm is more likely to
be an exporter. What caused it? A natural explanation can be offered with
positions of the latest theory of international trade, laid down in the classic article [1].
Within the framework of this theory, the main factor determining the entry of companies into export
markets, are the fixed costs associated with it. Accordingly, those companies
which can capture a large share of the foreign market after entering it, with
other equal, are more likely to decide that the resulting
additional profit compensates for one-time fixed costs. And the ability
capture market share within the relevant models is directly related to
marginal cost, efficiency and productivity of the firm. In the same time
we can expect more productive firms to grow faster. Tem
in this way we can explain the relationship between the size of a company and its export
status, but we also get a more important relationship - between the export status
company and its efficiency, and this pattern is observed in practice.
Indeed, if we accept the considerations described above, then we expect that more
manufacturing firms will become exporters more often.
At the same time, there is another point of view - that the company's entry into export markets
can lead to an increase in its efficiency and productivity through the mechanism
"learning through export". After entering the export markets, the company
forced to make more investments in new technologies, new business practices.
In addition, the presence of external relations can greatly facilitate borrowing and exchange
experience and technology. This effect can be a significant practical
interest, since increasing the productivity of enterprises can serve as an important
source of economic growth and ensure the development of Russia. Accordingly, in
In this paper, we aim to separate the relationship between performance
and export status for these two effects in order to determine potential
opportunities to stimulate the development of Russian enterprises by facilitating
them access to foreign markets

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