ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF RUSSIAN FIRMS EXIT TO EXPORT MARKETS WITH SELECTION EFFECTS INCLUDED

Abstract

A prerequisite for sustainable economic growth
Russian economy is to increase the efficiency of enterprises. One of
factors that can lead to this is the expansion of Russia's involvement in
international trade. The most obvious are the consequences of the effects,
related to the growth in the number of more efficient exporting companies as a result of
increased international specialization. Enterprises with a positive export
status, as a rule, are larger, therefore, with an increase in the level of involvement
countries in international trade, production resources flow towards more
productive exporting companies, which leads to an increase in the overall level
economic efficiency. At the same time, under the hypothesis of learning through
exports, the entry of new companies into export markets will lead to an increase in their
efficiency, and hence the growth of the efficiency of the Russian economy as a whole.
Thus, economic growth can be associated with three regularities: firstly,
the number of exporting firms increases, and secondly, at the beginning of the export
activities, according to the assumption of learning through export activity,
firms that have entered the foreign market become more efficient, thirdly,
exporting enterprises are becoming larger, which leads to the spillover of factors
production to more efficient firms with a positive export status.
This paper explores the hypothesis of learning through exports. A task
is complicated by the fact that direct measurement leads to system errors. Exit to
foreign markets is associated with overcoming barriers, which leads to additional
costs for businesses. Benefit from this kind of activity can only
firms are initially more productive, which corresponds to the selection effect.
It turns out that in a simple comparison of firms with different export status,
exporters will be more efficient, but it will be impossible to say what
share of the effect of learning through export in this difference.

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