The Role of Non-Recurring Congestion in Massive Hurricane Evacuation Events

Abstract

The response to a potential disaster can require the evacuation of personnel from a specified area. Generally, such efforts are restricted to the orderly mass departure of individuals across pre-planned and well maintained transportation routes. In the U.S., evacuations of up to 1,000 subjects take place every two to three weeks, with more extreme evacuations involving two million or more every one to three years (TRB, 2008). While evacuation routes are designed to accommodate normal traffic movements, congestion and gridlock can occur as the design capacity of the road system is overwhelmed by the magnitude of vehicles leaving the affected area. The resulting traffic patterns affect the safety and mobility of subjects moving to more secure areas. Adding to this disarray, potential nonrecurring incidents congest traffic patterns even more. Estimates indicate that between fifty and sixty-five percent of traffic congestion is caused by non-recurring traffic incidents with an additional ten percent related to construction and weather (Coifman, 2007). A non-recurring traffic incident is any event that both causes a reduction of roadway capacity, or an abnormal increase in demand, and requires first responders to be dispatched. Stalled vehicles, roadway debris, spilled loads, and crashes fall into this category of incidents. Non-recurring traffic incidents can cause secondary traffic incidents. These incidents further congest the traffic stream and cause delays in clean-up efforts by first-responders. Studies indicate that twenty percent of traffic incidents are secondary incidents, with one out of five resulting in a fatality. In addition to crashes, secondary incidents can include overheated vehicles, out of fuel conditions, and engine stalls. The delay and traffic gridlock associated with traffic incidents is compounded during the evacuation process due to the large numbers of subjects leaving the affected area. These delays and backups result in: â¢ Increased response time by first responders â¢ Lost time resulting in a wider evacuation window â¢ Increased fuel consumption â¢ Reduced air quality and other adverse environmental conditions â¢ Increased potential for more serious secondary incidents resulting from rear end collisions, traffic exiting the route, or exiting to the shoulder of the road â¢ Increased potential of crashes by incidents involving personnel responding to traffic incidents â¢ Negative public image of first responders involved in incident management activities.