DEVELOPMENT OF METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO LONG-TERM BUDGET FORECAST IN THE REGIONS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Abstract

The subject of this research is the analysis of long-term budget forecasts of the constituent units of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to update the Methodological Recommendations of the Ministry of Finance of Russia on the preparation of long-term regional budget forecasts, which have not been updated since 2015. The goal of the study is to develop recommendations for the constituent units of the Russian Federation to improve the long-term budget forecasting. The scientific novelty of the study lies in identifying, based on the examination of subnational experience of foreign countries, “the best practices” that can be used in Russia for long-term budget forecasting, and analyzing the quality of existing long-term budget forecasts of the constituent units of the Russian Federation. The research method is the analysis of international and domestic experience of building budget forecasts, methods of grouping, system analysis and synthesis. This study used data from official websites of the foreign authorities responsible for long-term budget forecasting, as well as approved long-term budget forecasts of the constituent units of the Russian Federation, presented in the ConsultantPlus: Regions legal reference system and on the official Internet sites of the executive authorities of the constituent units of the Russian Federation. Based on the results of the study, recommendations were formulated for the regions of the Russian Federation to improve the quality of budget forecasting: increase of the forecasting horizon to at least 30 years, which includes short-term, medium-term and long-term components, with a description of each component’s features, modification of the composition and structure of long-term budget forecasts, determination of the relationship with the regional budget, medium-term budget forecasts, specifying the practical role of the forecast in political and budgeting processes. The authors conclude that a forecast should be used not only in its conventional form of a document approved by the regional regulatory documents, but also as a calculator with parameters (a set of formulas) for internal use by the regional financial authorities, used to assess the budgetary implications of the proposed measures and decisions and to calculate the limitations of budget parameters in the process of drafting the budget. Research prospects are to analyze the results of pilot implementation of the proposed approach to long-term budget forecasting in Russian regions

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