Validation of Three Methods of Selecting Moisture Reference Years for Hygrothermal Simulations

Abstract

Hygrothermal simulations are necessary to permit analyzing moisture performance when designing building envelopes. Owing to the high computing time and cost of the long term simulations, a common approach is to select representative year(s), the Moisture Reference Year(s), from a longterm series of climate data. It is assumed that the use of Moisture Reference Year(s) (MRYs) provides equivalent results as those provided using long-term series. The selection of MRY(s) is by itself based on the one of the methods available in the literature. In the present study, three methods of selecting the MRYs were evaluated i.e. the moisture index (MI), severity index (Isev) and climatic index (CI). Simulations were performed using individual years of historical climate data extending from 1986 to 2016 and projected future climate data representing the scenario with a 3.5°C increase in average temperature which is expected to occur from 2062 to 2092. Brick cladding installed on a wood frame wall assembly subjected to the climate of three different Canadian cities was selected for analysis. The cities selected were Vancouver (BC), Calgary (AB) and Ottawa (ON). These cities have differing levels of moisture loads. The year having the mould index value more than 3 for highest number of hours among the individual years was compared with the MRY given by three selected methods. A method was considered to be accurate in terms of the prediction if the year selected by that method gives the number of hours with mould index more than 3 which lies in the same class as that of year having maximum corresponding value. In general, it was observed that none of the methods provides the worst year with 100% accuracy, however for most of the cases, Isev method performs better than other two methods in terms of MRY selection.

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