Evaluación holística del riesgo sísmico en zonas urbanas

Latest revision as of 12:11, 14 June 2017

Abstract

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. In the past, the concept of risk has been defined in many cases in a fragmentary way, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. A framework and a multidisciplinary risk evaluation model is proposed in this article that take into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or the economic losses, but also the conditions related to soial fragility and lack of resilience which favor second order effects (or indirect effects) when an earthquake strikes an urban centre. Thus, the mentioned evaluation is holistic, that is based on an integrated and comprehensive approach, made by using indicatos andoriented towards guiding decision-making. The conceptual framework and the model proposed are also valid for their applicationto multihazard risk evaluation, although this article has been focused on the evaluation of the seismic risk. The first step in obtaining the Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) consists of calculating a Physical Risk index for each unit of analysis starting form existing physical risk scenarios. An impact factor, associated with a set of socio-economic and lack of resilience conditions of the community, is applied in a second step to the physical risk index in order to obtain the USRi. It has been demostrated that the proponed holistic evaluationmodel of the seismic risk in robust, provideing stable and reliable values of the USRi. Finally, numerical simulation results of the seismic risk obtained with the proposed model are given in the article for the cities of Bogota (Colombia), Barcelona (Spain) and Manila (The Phillipines).

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 == Abstract ==
-Con el propósito de gestión, el riesgo se define como las consecuencias económicas, sociales y ambientales potenciales de eventos peligrosos que pueden ocurrir en un período de tiempo específico. En el pasado, el concepto de riesgo se ha definido en muchos casos de una forma fragmentada, de acuerdo con cada disciplina involucarada en su evaluación. en este artículo se propone un marco conceptual y un modelo de evaluación multidisciplinar del riesgo sísmicoque tenga en cuenta sólo el daño físico esperado y el número o tipo de víctimas o las pérdidas económicas, sino también las condiciones relacionadas con la fragilidad social y la falta de resiliencia que favorecen los efectos de segundo orden (o efectos indirectos) cuando un terremoto impacta un centro urbano. De esta manera, dicha evaluación es holística, es decir, parte de un enfoque integral y compresivo, se realiza con base en la utilización de indicadores y tiene como principal objetivo guiar la toma de decisiones. El marco conceptual y modelo propuestos son válidos también para su aplicación a estudios de riesgo multiamenaza, aunque este artículo se ha centrado en su aplicación al estudio del riesgo sísmico. El primer paso para obtener el índice de riesgo sísmico urbano (USRi) que se propone en el artículo consiste en c alcular un índice de riesgo sísmico físico para cada unidad de análisis partiendo de escenarios existentes de pérdidad física. en un segundo paso se aplica a este índice un factor de impacto que tiene en cuenta un conjunto de condiciones socio-económicas y de falta de resiliencia de la comunidad que agrava los efectos físicos, lo que proporciona el USRi. Ha sido demostrado que el modelo de evaluación holística del riesgo sísmico que se propone es robusto, proporcionando valores del USRi estables y fiables. Finalmente, en el eartículo se incluyen resultados de simulación numérica del riesgo sísmico obtenidos mediante la aplicación del modelo propuesto a las ciudades de Bogotá (Colombia), Barcelona (España) y manila (Filipinas). Summary Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. In the past, the concept of risk has been defined in many cases in a fragmentary way, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. A framework and a multidisciplinary risk evaluation model is proposed in this article that take into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or the economic losses, but also the conditions related to soial fragility and lack of resilience which favor second order effects (or indirect effects) when an earthquake strikes an urban centre. Thus, the mentioned evaluation is holistic, that is based on an integrated and comprehensive approach, made by using indicatos andoriented towards guiding decision-making. Th conceptual framework and the model proposed are also valid for their applicationto multihazard risk evaluation, although this article has been focused on the evaluation of the seismic riskk. The first step in obtaining the Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) consists of calculating a Physical Risk index for each unit of analysis starting form existing physical risk scenarios. An impact factor, associated with a set of socio-economic and lack of resilience conditions of the community, is applied in a second step to the physical risk index in order to obtain the USRi. It has been demostrated that the proponed holistic evaluationmodel of the seismic risk in robust, provideing stable and reliable values of the USRi. Finally, numerical simulation results of the seismic risk obtained with the proposed model are given in the article for the cities of Bogota (Colombia), Barcelona (Spain) and Manila (The Phillipines).
+Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. In the past, the concept of risk has been defined in many cases in a fragmentary way, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. A framework and a multidisciplinary risk evaluation model is proposed in this article that take into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or the economic losses, but also the conditions related to soial fragility and lack of resilience which favor second order effects (or indirect effects) when an earthquake strikes an urban centre. Thus, the mentioned evaluation is holistic, that is based on an integrated and comprehensive approach, made by using indicatos andoriented towards guiding decision-making. The conceptual framework and the model proposed are also valid for their applicationto multihazard risk evaluation, although this article has been focused on the evaluation of the seismic risk. The first step in obtaining the Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) consists of calculating a Physical Risk index for each unit of analysis starting form existing physical risk scenarios. An impact factor, associated with a set of socio-economic and lack of resilience conditions of the community, is applied in a second step to the physical risk index in order to obtain the USRi. It has been demostrated that the proponed holistic evaluationmodel of the seismic risk in robust, provideing stable and reliable values of the USRi. Finally, numerical simulation results of the seismic risk obtained with the proposed model are given in the article for the cities of Bogota (Colombia), Barcelona (Spain) and Manila (The Phillipines).
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