Impact of disruptive innovations on road transport strategy

Abstract

Scenario describing the future include many disruptive innovations, which implies that traditional models calibrated on historical data are not always applicable for quantification of these scenarios. This paper describes disruptive changes to be expected which will influence the reliability of forecasting approaches used for road transport assessments and which changes to these approaches can be recommended. Also adaptions to the forecasting framework are proposed and the key modelling issues to be improved are indicated. Some aspects will remain hard to predict and in these cases additional pro-active mitigation actions are recommended, such as flexibilization of the infrastructure and location policy for economic activities.

Original document

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