Revision as of 10:15, 27 January 2026

Abstract

This study introduces a Lasso–Prophet hybrid framework developed to deal with the limitations and gap of Facebook’s Prophet model. The approach begins with Prophet’s decomposition of a time series into its fundamental components trend, seasonality, and holiday effects, and then applies Lasso regression to the residuals to capture additional structural patterns that fail to capture by the base model. This layered methodology boosts predictive accuracy by enabling the model to learn both systematic and irregular variations within temporal data by incorporating Lasso’s feature selection capability, the framework efficiently handles highdimensional datasets, retaining only the most informative predictors. The outcome is a hybrid model which achieves an optimal balance among interpretability, scalability, sparsity, and forecasting precision. Validation on simulated high-feature datasets and real-world electricity consumption data demonstrates that the Lasso–Prophet hybrid consistently outperforms the Prophet and other baseline models.OPEN ACCESS Received: 31/08/2025 Accepted: 17/11/2025 Published: 23/01/2026

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