Rainfall Trend Analysis and One-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Assessment of the Ganga River Basin Using HEC-RAS 6.3


== Abstract ==

<p>This study integrates long-term rainfall trend analysis with one-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling to assess hydro-climatic variability and flood vulnerability along the selected stretch of the Ganga River near Farakka Barrage, eastern India. Daily gridded rainfall data for 1991&ndash;2025 were analyzed to identify trends and potential change points. The Mann&ndash;Kendall test, Sen&rsquo;s slope estimator, Bias-Corrected Pre-Whitening, and Trend-Free Pre-Whitening were applied to account for serial correlation. The rainfall series showed an overall decreasing tendency, although statistical significance varied among the applied trend tests after pre-whitening. HEC-RAS 6.3 simulations showed increasing water surface elevation, velocity, and discharge under 25-, 50-, and 100-year design-flood scenarios. The findings indicate that flood risk in the study reach is shaped by both hydro-climatic variability and local hydraulic controls.</p>



== Document ==
<pdf>Media:Draft_content_471870856-4562-document.pdf</pdf>