== Abstract ==

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The devastating civil war in Syria is             arguably one of the major civil conflicts in recent times.             The conflict started with protests in March 2011 and soon             after escalated to a violent internal war with no end in             sight to this date. The conflict has by the end of 2014             caused well in excess of 150,000 fatalities, and 6 million             internally displaced people (UN), and led 3 million refugees             to move out of the country (UNHCR). Beyond the human             tragedy, the conflict has disrupted the functioning of the             economy in many ways. It has destroyed infrastructure,             prevented children from going to school, closed factories             and deterred investments and trade. The economic effects of             the war extend beyond the country’s borders affecting also             the neighboring countries. In particular trade is one of the             main channels through which the effects of the crisis are             transmitted to neighboring countries. For example, the             demand for goods and services in Syria is likely to have             fallen thus affecting the many exporters to Syria in             neighboring countries. Moreover, to the extent that Syria             has become harder to cross, the war may have made trade             through Syria more difficult. At the same time producers in             neighboring countries may have replaced Syrian producers in             Syria and in other markets as their productive assets in             Syria were destroyed. This report examines the effects of             the Syrian war on the Lebanese economy via one of the most             important channels through which the economic impact of the             war occurs, i.e. the trade channel. In doing so, it partly             updates and extends the previous economic assessment of             World Bank (2013b) carried out last year. Focusing             specifically on trade allows us to examine in more depth the             trade effects than that report was able to do. Indeed, we go             beyond the effects on aggregate and sectoral imports and             exports to also examine the effects on exports at firms’             level, comparing the effects in Lebanon with those in other             neighboring countries, including Jordan, Turkey and Iraq.

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== Original document ==

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The different versions of the original document can be found in:

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* [http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21914 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21914] under the license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/

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* [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/21914/The0impact0of00ct0on0Lebanese0trade.pdf?sequence=1 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/21914/The0impact0of00ct0on0Lebanese0trade.pdf?sequence=1]

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