Abstract

This research is conducted to explore the growing trend of private vehicles in Beijing, China, in the coming 25 years using the system dynamics (SD) method. The vensim software is used to build the SD model and do simulations. First, the paper introduces the background of the private vehicles in Beijing and analyzes the issues of traffic congestion and air pollution caused by them. Second, the method system dynamics is justified to analyze the concerned issues of Beijing vehicle and the attendant traffic congestion and air pollution. Third, qualitative analysis is done to explore what possible policies the Beijing government can adopt to increase the percentage of electrical vehicles (EVs) and control the number of total private vehicles at the same time. A causal loop diagram is drawn to facilitate the way of thinking. Afterwards, a quantitative SD model about the system is built based on the causal loop diagram and qualitative analysis is made. Finally, the SD model is simulated to explore the plausible future trend about private vehicles and study the implications of different policies.