Abstract

Finland has set ambitious long-term targets, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and the whole energy system by 2050. By utilising the energy system model STREAM, which includes the power, heat and transport sectors, this paper develops two alternative scenarios for the transport sector by 2050—one with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) and another with a high percentage of biofuels (BIO), and compares the scenario results with a known Carbon-Neutral Scenario (CNS) which is adopted from the Nordic Energy Technology Perspective (IEA in Nordic energy technology perspective—pathways to a carbon-neutral energy future, 2013a). The socio-economic value of the total system cost is computed and the system integration of the transport sector with the electricity and heating sectors is simulated with an hourly time resolution. This study finds that a Finnish transport sector with a high share of EV by 2050 leads to the lowest total annual system cost of the scenarios and yields a reduction by 2.3% compared to CNS. While the transport configuration in the BIO scenario achieves the highest total annual system cost which is 0.4% higher than CNS. The robustness of the results is tested through a sensitivity analysis which shows that the costs (investment and maintenance) of biodiesel cars and EV are the most sensitive parameters in the comparative analysis of the scenarios. Document type: Part of book or chapter of book

Abstract

Computer simulation could be used to reduce the cost of designing human-machine systems, just as it is currently used in the design process for inanimate systems such as electronic circuits. However, past efforts have met with limited success due to difficulties modeling the human components of these systems. We have constructed a software framework and methodology for modeling human performance, APEX, that addresses several of these difficulties. This paper describes a methodology for using APEX to evaluate designs in complex, dynamic task environments; we then illustrate this process using an example from the domain of air traffic control. Document type: Part of book or chapter of book