Abstract

Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2007 Thesis (M.Sc.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, 2007 Dünyanın sayılı kentleri arasında olan ve giderek artan bir hızla büyüyen İstanbul’da, artık ciddi bir ulaşım planlamasına gereksinim vardır. Ulaşım planlamasında en önemli alanı toplu taşıma sisteminin geliştirilmesi ve verimli kullanılması kapsamaktadır. Toplu taşıma sisteminde giderek payı artması gereken denizyolu taşımacılığı ve onun parçası deniz otobüslerinin, etkin bir şekilde yönetilmesi gerekmektedir. Etkin ve verimli yönetim için birçok bilimsel metoddan bahsedilebilir. Bu tez kapsamında bu metodlardan simülasyon ele alınmıştır. Bu tez çalışmasının ana amacı, İstanbul’da kent içinde faaliyet gösteren deniz otobüsü filosu ve iskeleleri ile ilgili planlama yapılırken simülasyonun etkin bir araç olarak kullanılabilirliğinin araştırılmasıdır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda tez kapsamında kent içi tüm şebekeyi kapsayan bir model Promodel yazılımından faydalanılarak oluşturulmuştur. Oluşturulan bu model, farklı senaryolarla daha önce yapılmış çalışmaların analizinde kullanılmıştır. Tez ile birlikte verilen ekte modellerin kodları bulunmaktadır. Senaryoların sonuçları birbirleriyle karşılaştırılmış, deniz otobüsü planlamasında ileride neler yapılabileceği tartışılmıştır. There is an urgent transport plan need for Istanbul, one of the few world cities with its increasing rate of population growth. The development and efficient use of public transportation constitute the most important fields of the transportation planning. The proportion of sea transportation and the sea buses as a part of it should be increased and administered effectively. There is a number of scientific methods for accomplishing an efficient and effective management. In this thesis, simulation of these methods is discussed. The main aim of this thesis is to investigate whether the simulation is an efective tool in the process of planning about the sea bus fleet and sea ports that are in service in Istanbul. A model including all the city network was built up by using Promodel which is a simulation software. This model was used in the analysis of recent studies set up on a variety of scenarios. The appendix contains the codes of the models. The results were compared and the possible projects in sea bus planning were discussed. Yüksek Lisans M.Sc.

Abstract

In order to realize sustainable cities, it is vital to achieve and maintain social behavioral change for shifting our modes of mobility from inefficient, wasteful and motorized means to cleaner, greener, healthier and more economic means such as walking, cycling and public transportation in addition to smart use of land, intelligent transportation systems, and clean and green vehicles. This study is based on a critical review of literature in order to establish a framework of social behavioral change policies, particularly developed and tested for urban mobility and traffic congestion. First, various mega cities were compared on different sustainability indicators to better understand the case of Istanbul. Then, selected policy potentials, namely Travel Demand Management (TDM), were evaluated for Istanbul following a set of personal interview surveys aiming to reveal travel patterns of residents, their perceptions and attitudes on current transport system performance, and their opinions for possible TDM interventions in the future. We proposed a multiplicative model to process data from these surveys as inputs, which would then be used to determine travel demand. A simulation model was constructed using PTV-VISSIM tool and validated with current traffic congestion metrics obtained from field measurements in a selected district of Istanbul. Based on this validated simulation model, projections of traffic conditions in the future under different TDM scenarios were predicted with the help of determined TDM potentials obtained from the survey results. As a result of this study, it was revealed that the traffic congestion levels in Istanbul tend to become worse year by year under existing conditions, but it was also found that the TDM policies offer significant potential for reducing congestion, hence its consequent hazards, via increased use of sustainable mobility modes without the need for new infrastructure investments.