Abstract

This paper presents a validated set of innovative maritime solutions analyzing, based on the extended"br" Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methodology, the main risks that could potentially hinder or delay"br" their implementation, thus providing a set of appropriate strategies and measures that can be adopted for"br" mitigating those risks. Document type: Part of book or chapter of book

Abstract

In this paper, we present an analysis on optimization and risk management in Communication Networks (CNs). The model is proposed for offline traffic engineering optimization, which takes a centralized view of bandwidth allocation, performance control, and risk control of network profit shortfall. First, we introduce a linear penalty cost in the CN optimization model and derive the optimal bandwidth capacity with the penalty cost. Then, we use the mean-variance approach to analyze the profit shortfall risk in CNs. Finally, numerical results are shown to reveal the impact of the penalty cost on the CNs performance. Document type: Part of book or chapter of book

Abstract

Part 2: Workshop; International audience; Risk management is coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk, and includes the identification, analysis and mitigation of unacceptable risks. For critical infrastructures consisting of interdependent systems, risk analysis and mitigation is challenging because the overall risk picture can be strongly affected by changes in only a few of the systems. In order to continuously manage risks and maintain an adequate level of protection, there is a need to continuously maintain the validity of risk models while systems change and evolve. This paper presents a risk analysis tool that supports the modeling and analysis of changing and evolving risks. The tool supports the traceability of system changes to risk models, as well as the explicit modeling of the impact on the risk picture. The tool, as well as the underlying risk analysis method, is exemplified and validated in the domain of air traffic management. Document type: Part of book or chapter of book

Abstract

A risk-based fault tree analysis method has been developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for analysis of nuclear fuel cycle operations. This methodology was developed for the Department of Energy (DOE) as a risk analysis tool for evaluating high level waste management systems. A computer package consisting of three programs was written at that time to assist in the performance of risk assessment: ACORN (draws fault trees), MFAULT (analyzes fault trees), and RAFT (calculates risk). This methodology evaluates release consequences and estimates the frequency of occurrence of these consequences. This document describes an additional risk calculating code which can be used in conjunction with two of the three codes for transportation risk assessment. TRECII modifies the definition of risk used in RAFT (prob. x release) to accommodate release consequences in terms of fatalities. Throughout this report risk shall be defined as probability times consequences (fatalities are one possible health effect consequence). This methodology has been applied to a variety of energy material transportation systems. Typically the material shipped has been radioactive, although some adaptation to fossil fuels has occurred. The approach is normally applied to truck or train transport systems with some adaptation to pipelines and aircraft. TRECII ismore » designed to be used primarily in conjunction with MFAULT; however, with a moderate amount of effort by the user, it can be implemented independent of the risk analysis package developed at PNL. Code description and user instructions necessary for the implementation of the TRECII program are provided.« le Document type: Report

Abstract

This report is the third in a series of reports evaluating the risk of transporting plutonium by various modes. For comparative purposes, all shipping evaluations use the same bases. The characteristics of the nuclear economy used in this analysis are: a total of 18 metric tons of plutonium is shipped annually via the mode; 100 kg of plutonium are transported per shipment (for air shipment a truck and air segment are considered); shipping systems and regulations; and plutonium dioxide (PuO2) is shipped in 6M (15-gal) containers. Only aircraft shipments of plutonium diozide powder were considered. Based on shipping assumptions, the likelihood that an aircraft carrying shipment will be involved in an accident is estimated to be about once in 450 years. Graphs showing risk spectra for plutonium shipments are presented. The comparison of truck and air transport modes for the same material showed truck transport to have less risk. Document type: Report