Abstract

This paper presents a methodology to identify key priority areas for transport investments. The methodology uses a geospatial data-driven approach and then proposes an innovative economic analysis for project appraisal. The two main steps involve (i) prioritization of road interventions based on a set of economic, social, and risk reduction criteria; and (ii) assessment of monetized and nonmonetized costs and benefits of road interventions under many scenarios covering the uncertainty on future risks and other factors. This methodology is used at different stages of project preparation for a rural roads lending operation to the Government of Mozambique. In the two regions of Mozambique considered, the analysis prioritizes regions along the coast when combining agriculture, fisheries, poverty, network criticality, and hazard risk criteria. With a limited budget of US$15 million per district, the results show that investing in repairing and rehabilitating culverts and bridges is the intervention that performs better under most of the scenarios. Document type: Book

Abstract

This paper benchmarks the quality of project economic analysis in South Asia against other World Bank regions, using data on project exits between 1975 and 2015. The results show that the South Asia region performs on par with the other regions, in that the share of project documents that report estimated economic rates of return have declined from 70 to 36 percent for South Asia and the other regions. This finding suggests there is less attention to project economic analysis (especially for sectors where this has been a traditional practice, such as energy, transport, water, and agriculture). The finding also indicates that the incidence of reporting rates of return in project documents and the dispersion or difference between rates of return estimated at project appraisal and completion are significantly correlated with project performance (after correcting for country- and project-level variables). For the project-level variables, the task team effect is a key variable that explains project outcomes. The paper discusses the implications of the analyses for strengthening project performance and risk mitigation. Document type: Book