Abstract

Many possible emergency conditions, including evacuations, negatively affect the urban transportation system by substantially increasing the travel demand and/or reducing the supplied capacity. A transportation model can be used to quantify and understand the impact of the underlying disasters and corresponding management strategies. To this end, we develop an efficient methodology suitable for simulating multimodal transportation systems affected by emergencies, based on the novel integration of an activity-based choice model with both pre-trip and en-route choices, and a macroscopic or mesoscopic dynamic network loading model. The model structure first estimates the daily equilibrium and then uses that result as a starting point to simulate the emergency situation without further iterations. Unlike previous efforts, our methodology satisfies all requirements identified from literature regarding transportation modeling for emergencies, and is sufficiently general to investigate a wide range of emergency situations and management strategies. An evacuation case study for Delft shows the feasibility of applying the methodology. Furthermore, it yields practical insights for urban evacuation planning that stem from complex system dynamics, such as important interactions among travel directions and among modes. This supports the need for a comprehensive modeling methodology such as the one we present in this paper.

Abstract

We study the problem of finding an optimal itinerary to travel from a starting location to a destination location using public transport, where we allow travelers to alternate rides with (short) walks. The main difference with previous research is that we take all possible walks that a traveler can make into consideration. This large number of possible walks poses a potential computational difficulty. However, in this paper we derive theorems for identifying a small subset of walks that only need to be considered. These results are embedded in a solution algorithm, which is tested in a real-life setting for bus transportation in a medium sized city. An extensive numerical study leads to encouraging results. First, only 1% of all possible walks needs to be considered, so that the optimal itinerary can be determined very efficiently. Second, allowing walks has considerable benefits; reducing the travel time in about 6% of all randomly generated examples by more than 10% on average. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.