Abstract

Battery Electric Vehicle as an environmental friendly transportation alternative has already emerged as well as fade out of the market twice. It has been reintroduced along with the increasing concern about the environment issue. This recent diffusion is surrounded by lots of dynamic changes and uncertainties. However, most current studies focus on political, financial as well as infrastructure factors but neglect factors like the technology especially how people perceived it. Therefore, this study mainly research into how the technology development impact on the diffusion of battery electric vehicle.To achieve this aim, a model based study was conducted targeting Swedish electric vehicle market. In the research, customers are considered to be the target objective because they are the one  who perceive the technology and make decision for adoption directly. In order to know the relationship between them, researches have been conducted through qualitative and quantitative approach. Empirical work including interviews and survey were conducted through tripartite aspect to investigate the customer needs and related technology. The investigation indicates the environmentally friendly performance is the key driving force perceived by the early adopters. Meanwhile, range issue, total cost of ownership and safety & technology reliability are identified as the top three critical concerns that  hold back customer purchasing decision. A modified classic model for the innovation diffusion has been proposed which is used to evaluate the technology’s perception based on historical data. Two BEV- related technologies were chosen as examples to prove and illustrate the relationship between technology development and electric vehicle diffusion.The results showed that the BEV-related technologies, which have potential ability to address critical customer demand, are able to impact on the customer adoption positively through valid perception by customer. Taking technology development and perception into consideration, the diffusion process should be accelerated to some extent. Technologies which can be more easily perceived tend to have more impact in the diffusion process. Batteridrivna elektriska fordon(BEV) som ett miljövänligt transportalternativ redan har dykt upp, liksom försvunnit från marknaden två gånger. Det har återinförts tillsammans med den ökande oron för miljöfrågan. Denna nya diffusion är omgiven av dynamiska förändringar och osäkerheter. Men de flesta av dagens studier fokuserar på politiska, ekonomiska och infrastrukturella faktorer, men försummar faktorer relaterat till tekniken framför allt hur människor uppfattar det. Därför undersökte denna studie främst hur den tekniska utvecklingen påverkar spridningen av batteridrivna fordon.För att uppnå detta syfte, gjordes en modell baserad kring en studie av den svenska elbilsmarknaden. I forskningen anses kunderna vara målet målgruppen eftersom de är de som uppfattar tekniken och tar beslut om införandet direkt. För att veta förhållandet mellan dem, har kvalitativa och kvantitativa undersökningar genomförts. Empiriskt arbete inklusive intervjuer och undersökningen genomfördes genom tre olika aspekter för att undersöka kundernas behov och relaterad teknik. Undersökningen visar att miljövänlig prestanda är den viktigaste drivkraften som uppfattas av early adopters. Samtidigt har räckviddsproblematiken, totala ägandekostnaden och tillförlitlighet i säkerhet och teknologi identifierats som de tre kritiska problemen som tillbakahåller kunden från ett köpbeslut. En modifierad klassisk modell för innovationsspridning har föreslagits som används för att utvärdera teknikens uppfattning baserad på historiska data. Två BEV-relaterade teknologier valdes som exempel för att bevisa och illustrera förhållandet mellan teknikutveckling och elbilsdiffusion.Resultaten visade att BEV-relaterad teknologi, som har potential förmåga att ta itu med den kritiska efterfrågan från kunderna, kan påverka kundacceptans positivt genom giltig uppfattning av kunden. Om teknikutveckling och uppfattning beaktas, bör diffusionsprocessen påskyndas i viss utsträckning. Teknik som lättare kan uppfattas tenderar att ha mer genomslag i diffusionsprocessen.

Abstract

Electric vehicles offer the potential of climate-friendly driving and have received more and more attention in diffusion research recently. However, the effect of the availability of home charging options on the market potential of electric vehicles has not been targeted in detail in the diffusion process so far, although it represents a beneficial differentiation to conventional vehicles. Therefore, we present an agent-based simulation to address the buying behavior of German consumers regarding electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles using empirical data primarily derived from a choice-based conjoint study. We explicitly consider individual possibilities of home charging in our model, which appears to have an important influence on the diffusion of both, electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. However, its importance decreases with faster charging times at public charging stations. Furthermore, our findings reveal that in the longer term, technological progress in charging time, range, and charging station density of electric vehicles is presumably cannibalizing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles’ market shares more than that of conventional vehicles. However, with still lower technological capabilities of electric vehicles, a governmental subsidy can initially promote plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, but electric vehicles will benefit later from that promotional effect.