Abstract

Ekici, Şule Önsel (Dogus Author) -- Özaydın, Özay (Dogus Author) The transportation sector is one of the most significant sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In order to mitigate climate change, it is important to apply effective and immediate policies to reduce the transportation sector's emissions. This study aims to: (1) define the dimensions of the transportation sector, such as its environmental, economic, social, and political elements, and (2) investigate how they relate to climate change, in order to assess potential mitigation scenarios and policies that could reduce the sector's contribution to climate change. First, sector-related variables were specified using expert opinions and a literature survey. Relationships between the variables and the associated intensity values were then identified using document coding, as well as by gathering expert opinions through a workshop. A fuzzy cognitive map analysis was then conducted to investigate the relationships between the variables and the resulting impacts by the transportation sector on climate change. A scenario analysis was also conducted in order to identify the most effective policies in reducing the impacts of transportation on climate change, at both the local and global levels. For the scenario analysis at the global level, projections by the International Energy Agency were analyzed through the model. The local policy suggestions developed by Turkish authorities were also evaluated using scenario analysis.