Abstract

In this paper four energy scenarios for Westy-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a base-line case is described and analysed. Next, for each scenario we sketch how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various existing and future transport technologies and the corresponding model split. Based on this information, expected energy consumption features of the various transport modes are described, data on the present fuel supply and electricity generation system are offered, and estimations of the future energy system are given. Then, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with the future passenger transport systems are stressed and these impacts are compared with the current system. The conclusion is that a large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions is possible in several ways. Each way will cause many problems, since drastic policy measures will have to be introduced, which may affect economic growth and the lifestyles of individuals.

Abstract

This paper analyses what post 2020 targets may be necessary for the European CO2 legislation for passenger cars in order to reach the overall sectoral goal of 60% reduction of transport's greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 relative to 1990, as defined in the European Commission's White Paper. The required target levels are found to depend strongly on the contribution that passenger cars need to make to reaching the overall target, on the assumed growth of passenger car mobility, and on the extent to which biofuels could be available for fuelling passenger cars. To what extent electric vehicles and other low emission vehicles such as plug-in hybrids and fuel cell electric vehicles are needed to meet the post-2020 targets depends on the target level and on the minimum CO2 emissions that can be reached in conventional vehicles. Almost all assessed scenarios, require significant amounts of low emission vehicles to be sold from 2030 or 2035 onwards. Electric and plug-in vehicles are in the early stage of market introduction now, but developments are fragile could end up in a 'valley of death'. Defining a sufficiently low passenger car CO2 target for 2025 may be an effective instrument to motivate manufacturers to continue their efforts in the marketing and further development of these vehicles. This is important for maintaining the momentum of the transition towards large-scale application of low CO2 emitting vehicles. Document type: Article

Abstract

The reduction of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption from road transportation constitutes an important pillar of the EU commitment for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. Efforts to monitor and limit CO2 emissions from vehicles can effectively be supported by the use of vehicle modelling tools. This paper presents the application of such a tool for predicting CO2 emissions of vehicles under different operating conditions and shows how the results from simulations can be used for supporting policy analysis and design aiming at further reductions of the CO2 emissions. For this purpose, the case of light duty goods (N1 category) vehicle CO2 emissions control measures adopted by the EU is analysed. In order to understand how certain design and operating aspects affect fuel consumption, a number of N1 vehicles were simulated with ADVISOR for various operating conditions and the numerical results were validated against chassis dynamometer tests. The model was then employed for analysing and evaluating the new EU legislative framework that addresses CO2 emissions from this vehicle class. The results of this analysis have shown the weaknesses of the current regulations and revealed new potential in CO2 emissions control. Finally the TREMOVE model was used for simulating a possible scenario for reducing CO2 emissions at fleet level. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Chemicals / CAS: carbon dioxide, 124-38-9, 58561-67-4