Abstract

Resumen: La investigación desarrollada en esta tesis de maestría presenta una aplicación de la técnica de preferencias declaradas, para la construcción de un modelo de elección de modo de transporte entre carretera y ferrocarril para carga general susceptible a exportación-importación, aplicado a las empresas antioqueñas. Aunque el transporte de carga por carretera presenta muchos inconvenientes en el país, no existe un estudio que demuestre cuáles son las variables que influyen en la elección de un modo de transporte de carga en Antioquia, para saber si realmente sería útil un ferrocarril para la región. La investigación cualitativa se presenta en este estudio a través de las técnicas de grupo focal con las empresas importantes de la región, de esta manera se logran conocer las variables que influyen en la elección de un modo de transporte por parte de las empresas antioqueñas que exportan-importan mercancías, las cuales resultaron ser costo de la tonelada/km y frecuencia de servicio por semana. Uno de los aportes más importantes de este trabajo es calibrar un modelo de elección discreta con las variables identificadas que inciden en la elección de modo de transporte para movilizar carga por parte de las empresas antioqueñas, y estimar la influencia que tiene cada una de estas variables. Los resultados muestran que la probabilidad de captación en carga general del modo ferrocarril varía entre el 67.00% y el 92.66% cuando se compara con la carretera, en los tomadores de decisión de las empresas antioqueñas, según sea la variación de las variables influyentes en la elección de un modo de transporte (costo y frecuencia de servicio) desmintiendo la importancia de la variable tiempo de viaje, la cual por los tiempos muertos del cargue-descargue y espera en los puertos no es decisiva al comparar los dos modos. Otro aporte importante de esta investigación es el planteamiento de un trazado preliminar de un sistema férreo entre Medellín y Cartagena, el cual puede servir como base para realizar otros estudios de prefactibilidad para extraer costos y tiempos de este proyecto. Abstract: The developed research in this M.Sc. thesis, presents a technical application of stated preferences, for the construction of a choice modeling of a transportation mode between road and rail for general freight susceptible to exportation-importation, applied to the Antioquian companies. Although freight transportation by road has too many inconveniences in the country, doesn’t exist a study that shows what are the variables that influence the choice of transport mode in Antioquia, to know if really would be important a railroad for the region. Qualitative research presented in this study through focus group techniques with important companies of the region, so this way it's possible to know the variables that influence the choice of transportation mode by the companies of Antioquia that export-import merchandise, resulting cost and frequency the most important. One of the most important contributions in this job is to calibrate a discrete choice model with identified variables that identify the influence in the choice of a transportation mode to mobilize freight by the Antioquian companies, and estimate the influence that has each one of these variables. The results show that that the probability of the decision makers of the Antioquian companies choosing the railway mode varies between 67.00 % and 92.66 % when comparing with highway mode, to move general freight, and this depends on the variation of the influencing variables in the choice of a transportation mode (cost and service frequency), denying the importance of the variable travel time, which is not decisive to compare the two modes because the idle time at origin and ports. Another contribution in the present research is the approach of a preliminary layout of a rail system between Medellin and Cartagena, which can serve as a basis for other studies of feasibility to extract costs and times of this project.

Abstract

High-Speed Rail (HSR) is a transport mode that operates significantly faster than traditional services, using integrated and specialized rolling stock, and often dedicated tracks. These rapid transit services have profoundly impacted mobility habits on medium-long range journeys, and have also brought about social, economic, and environmental changes in the geographical areas involved. HSR has become a successful “brand”, including not only faster trains, but also a number of other on-board services that increase rail attractiveness (e.g. restaurants, wi-fi connection, free newspapers, cinema, business areas and relaxation lounges). Starting from these considerations, in this research we investigated the conjecture according to which a traveler, in choosing an HSR service to reach a destination (against a traditional rail service, or other competing transport modes), is not only influenced by its original peculiarity as a “faster train” service, but also takes into account the presence of all the “hedonic” characteristics of the service. That said, the literature in transportation modeling has yet to analyze the impact of hedonic quality on travelers’ behavior by quantifying whether and to what extent it increases their propensity to use HSR services. Aim of this research was twofold: i) to quantify, for the first time in the literature, the hedonic value of an HSR service related to a domestic tourist trip, as compared to more conventional levels of service and attractiveness attributes; ii) investigate the domestic tourist attractiveness of the main Italian cities, evaluating which attributes influence the perception of a city as a domestic tourist destination. The application case study consists in the supply of current rail services (HSR vs. traditional) between the 11 main Italian cities in terms of tourist destination. On the basis of an RP&SP survey, carried out among university students at national scale, a binomial logit model was specified with serial correlation in residuals, estimating whether or not the cities in the panel were perceived as possible destinations for a domestic tourist trips made by train. The estimation results show that city-specific attractiveness attributes (entertainment and restaurant rate; number of sites of interests; crime rate), and level of services variables (e.g. travel time and cost; HSR brand ) significantly influence the perception of a city as a possible destination for a domestic tourist trip by train. Furthermore, the average monetary value for the “pure preference” for the HSR brand (faster trains, high frequency, and on-board services) is about 22 Euros/trip, while the hedonic value relative only to on-board services is about 12 Euros/trip , underlining that the “faster train” is only one of the perceived attributes of HSR services. Overall, the willingness to pay for an HSR ticket is up to 40% greater than that for a traditional one. Furthermore, tourists are willing to spend 2.2 h more travelling on an HSR train to reach their destinations. The estimation results show that there is also a “distance traveled effect”; the pure preference for HSR services increases in value from 9 Euros/trip to 13 Euros/trip (+44%) for distances traveled greater than 400 km. If confirmed, these results allow the conclusion to be drawn that the “catchment area” of cities on HSR networks is larger than that served by traditional rail.