Abstract

The diffusion of innovations is an important process and its models have appli-cations in many fields, with particular relevance in technological forecast. The logistic equation is one of most important models in this context. Extensions of this approach as the Lotka-Volterra model have been developed to include the effect of mutual influences between technologies such as competition. However, many of the parameters entering this description are uncertain, difficult to estimate or simply unknown, particularly at early stages of the diffusion. Here, a systematic way to study the effect of uncertain or unknown parameters on the future diffusion of interacting innovations is proposed. The input required is a general qualitative understanding of the system: is the mutual influence positive or negative and does it apply symmetrically to either technology? Since the pa-rameters enter the problem via a set of coupled non-linear differential equa-tions, the approach proposed here goes beyond simple Monte-Carlo-like meth-ods where the result is an explicit function of the parameters. The methodology is developed in detail and applied the case of three types of upcoming electric vehicle propulsion technologies. The findings indicate that competition between electric vehicles and mild hybrid vehicles implies a slow decline of the latter. The approach can easily be generalised to include other initial conditions, more technologies or other technological areas to find stable results for future market evolution independent of specific parameters.

Abstract

Large-scale adoption of clean energy technologies, such as photovoltaic (PV) solar panels and electric vehicles (EVs), is key for ensuring a sustainable future. However, integrating clean energy technologies in the existing electricity grid is challenging for grid management. Aligning EV charging demand with PV power production via smart charging or using EVs as electricity storage in vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems can reduce the impact of both technologies on the grid. Realizing the potential of such systems requires consumers to adopt these technologies, shift EV charging demand, and allow for discharging of EVs; a radical change from current energy behaviours. The extent to which consumers will do so is a major source of uncertainty in assessing the future of sustainable energy systems. This thesis analyses and qualifies this uncertainty by developing simulation models that incorporate technical as well as social aspects of smart charging and V2G. This multi-disciplinary approach allows to study how consumer behaviour could shape sustainable energy systems. Furthermore, the thesis analyses large datasets on actual diffusion and use of PV solar panels and EVs in the Netherlands. The results show that there can be great benefits for grid management in combining intermittent renewable energy sources with EVs via smart and/or V2G. However, this can only be a partial solution for load balancing in scenarios with high renewable energy uptake. Furthermore, consumer adoption and charging behaviour varies greatly, which influences the extent to which the envisioned benefits of smart charging and V2G can be realized in certain regions and neighbourhoods.

Abstract

The Paris Agreement was formed in 2015 to reduce the environmental impact and limit the increase in temperature to 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. It is believed that an electrification of the transport sector will reduce its negative environmental impact. To reach the goals set by the Paris Agreement we are in need of quick development towards an electrified fleet of vehicles. Despite this urgency electric vehicles (EVs) have failed to reach the majority of the market, instead it has stuck in the chasm between the early adopters and the early majority of the markets. This is due to three main challenges; EVs are relatively expensive compared to conventional petrol- and diesel-powered vehicles, EVs have an inadequate driving range, and the access to a functional charging infrastructure is limited. This thesis focuses on the third challenge regarding charging infrastructure. The charging infrastructure is dependent on the existing electricity distribution infrastructure, i.e. the grid. It is rather time-consuming and costly to strengthen the grid, which is deemed necessary for enabling a roll-out of a charging infrastructure that meets the needs of current and near-future EV operators. This research provides an alternative way of approaching the issues. Instead of strengthening the grid by digging up old cables it looks into the opportunities of incorporating stationary battery storages as a buffer between the EV charging stations and the grid connection point. This battery solution can reduce the power outtake and smoothen out the load from EV charging, thus limiting the impact of EV charging from a grid perspective. The research assesses what type of pathways this solution could follow to successfully drive the adoption of EVs. Furthermore, the study tries to understand how these solutions could be designed to deliver the necessary values regarding EV charging and reducing the overall power outtake from grid connection points. The thesis is carried out by analyzing collected quantitative and qualitative data through the lens of three main theories. These are transition theory, theory on eco-innovations, and theory on the diffusion of innovations. The thesis finds that the two pathways for a battery supported charging infrastructure that will be most efficient in speeding up the adoption rate of EVs is within a workplace and public charging setting in city and urban environments. For both pathways it is expected that a centralized concept, with one battery solution connected to several charging points, will be most feasible in the short-term, which is important as the need for developments are very urgent. The workplace charging will provide 3,6 kW AC-charging while the public charging provides 150 kW DC-charging. The solution is expected to be cost-efficient for specific locations, especially for public charging in city environments with strained grid infrastructures. The study provides an initial assessment for the city of Stockholm which indicates that the power outtake can be reduced by 63,5–112,2 MW in 2030. This means that the current grid infrastructure could support a larger number of EVs, thus reducing the greenhouse-gas emissions from the transport sector and bringing us closer to reaching the goals set by the Paris Agreement. Parisavtalet utformades år 2015 för att reducera vår klimatpåverkan och begränsa temperaturökningen till 2°C jämfört med nivåerna som rådde innan den industriella revolutionen. Förhoppningen är att en elektrifiering av transportsektorn kan reducera dess negativa klimatpåverkan. För att nå målen i Parisavtalet behövs en snabb omställning mot en elektrifiering av fordonsflottan. Trots situationens brådskande karaktär har elbilar fastnat i en klyfta mellan den begränsade tidiga marknaden och den sena marknaden, vilken utgör majoriteten av kunderna. Det finns tre primära anledningar till detta; elbilar är dyra jämfört med bensin- och dieseldrivna bilar, räckvidden för elbilar är otillräcklig, och det råder begränsad tillgång till en funktionell laddinfrastruktur. Den här studien fokuserar på den tredje anledningen kring otillräcklig laddinfrastruktur. Laddinfrastrukturen är beroende av det existerande elnätet och dess distributionskapacitet. En förstärkning av elnätet är i många fall nödvändig för att möjliggöra en utrullning av en laddinfrastruktur som möter dagens och morgondagens behov. Istället för att förstärka elnätet genom att gräva ner tjockare kablar så fokuserar denna studie på en alternativ lösning kring laddinfrastruktur sammankopplat med stationära batterilager. Batterilagret agerar som en buffert mellan anslutningspunkten till elnätet och laddningspunkten för elbilar. Genom att reducera effektuttaget och jämna ut lastkurvan för elbilsladdning kan en batterilösning begränsa den negativa påverkan det förväntas ha på elnätet. Studien undersöker vilka vägar denna batterilösning kan ta för att öka antalet elbilar i fordonsflottan. Efter att ha förstått vilka dessa lösningsvägar är så analyserar studien hur dessa lösningar kan vara uppbyggda för att erbjuda de efterfrågade och nödvändiga värdena för elbilsladdning och elnätets fortsatta funktionalitet. Studien bygger på analys av kvalitativa och kvantitativa data. Analysen utförs genom att applicera koncept hämtade från teorier kring teknologiska övergångar, miljöinnovationer och spridning av innovationer. De två lösningsområden som förväntas vara mest effektiva i att driva en ökning av antalet elbilar i Sverige är arbetsplatsladdning samt offentlig laddning i stadsmiljöer. En lösning med ett centraliserat batterisystem där en batterilösning är kopplat till flera laddstationer antas vara mest genomförbar på kort sikt, vilket anses vara centralt på grund av utmaningarnas brådskande karaktär. För arbetsplatsladdning tillhandahålls 3,6 kW AC-laddning och för offentlig laddning tillhandahålls 150 kW DC-laddning. Lösningarna förväntas vara kostnadseffektiva for specifika platser och användarprofiler, speciellt för offentlig laddning i stadsområden med ansträngda elnät. En initial uppskattning visar att en laddinfrastruktur kopplat till stationära batterilager inom de två lösningsområdena kan minska Stockholms effektuttag för elbilsladdning med 63,5–112,2 MW år 2030. Detta betyder att dagens elnät kan tillgodose ett ökat antal elbilar, vilka genererar färre utsläpp av växthusgaser och ger oss en bättre chans att nå Parisavtalets mål.

Abstract

The progress of the global agenda for sustainable development, as well as increased concerns over climate change and global resource storage, are in the centre of this century discussions and concerns. Such concerns foster the demand for electric vehicles as these contribute to a more sustainable transportation system by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The present dissertation aims to study online communities of electric vehicles enthusiasts, understanding their attitudes, behaviours and opinions towards electric vehicles purchase intentions. Hence, netnography is considered the most appropriate qualitative research method to conduct this research. Results demonstrate that electric vehicles purchase intentions are affected by the consumers weighting of drivers, barriers, and mostly, perceived self-image. Further, this research shows that purchase intentions of electric vehicles are highly motivated by social influence. This study contributes to current academic discussion on the influential factors of this technology diffusion, unveiling interesting findings regarding the pre-eminence of perceived self-image and vehicle performance over environmental concerns, on purchase intentions. The desired change of behaviours and attitudes towards a more sustainable lifestyle, should be enticed at a societal level through Social Marketing. Governments should promote a more sustainable behaviour on the transportation paradigm by investing in the development of charging infrastructures and promoting the adoption of electric vehicles through stricter policies and incentives. Conspicuously, companies should leverage on governments actions and policies by advocating the futuristic and innovative technology, enhancing consumers perceived self-image to hasten electric vehicles diffusion O progresso da agenda global para o desenvolvimento sustentável e o armazenamento de recursos globais, estão no centro das discussões e preocupações deste século. Estas preocupações estão a fomentar a procura de veículos elétricos, uma vez que estes favorecem a redução de emissões de gases com efeito estufa e contribuem para um sistema de transporte mais sustentável. A presente dissertação visa, por isso, analisar comunidades online de entusiastas de veículos elétricos e compreender as suas atitudes, comportamentos e opiniões em relação às intenções de compra de veículos elétricos. Deste modo, netnografia é considerado o método de investigação qualitativo mais adequado para esta investigação. Os resultados demonstram que as intenções de compra de veículos elétricos são afetadas pela forma como os consumidores avaliam motivações, barreiras e percecionam autoimagem. Adicionalmente, as intenções de compra são fortemente motivadas pela influência social. Este estudo contribui para a atual discussão académica sobre os fatores influentes na difusão desta tecnologia, revelando a preeminência da perceção da autoimagem e do desempenho dos veículos em detrimento de preocupações ambientais na intenção de compra. A desejada mudança de comportamentos e atitudes para um estilo de vida mais sustentável deve ser fomentada através do Marketing Social. Os governos devem promover um comportamento mais sustentável no sistema de transporte, promovendo a adoção de veículos elétricos e investindo no desenvolvimento de infraestruturas de carregamento. Seguidamente, as empresas devem aproveitar as ações e políticas dos governos, promovendo tecnologia futurista e inovadora, potenciando a autoimagem dos consumidores para acelerar a difusão de veículos elétricos.

Abstract

A key issue in smart grid visions is the integration of the energy and mobility systems. Electric vehicles (EVs) can be charged with renewable photovoltaic (PV) solar power, and contribute to the integration of solar power in the electricity network via vehicle-to-grid systems. In such systems the role of consumers becomes crucial as they both generate and store energy. We investigate differences between PV and EV adopter groups and the implications of these differences for the transition to smart energy systems. We study how socio-demographic characteristics of the consumer base influence regional diffusion patterns. In turn, we build scenarios to explore the influence of diffusion patterns on the viability of regional EV-PV integration in terms of energy use and regional self-consumption. The results point out large differences in the spatial diffusion patterns between EV and PV. These differences have implications for the transition to smart sustainable grids; vehicle-to-grid systems may not be viable for certain regions.