Abstract

The use of Poisson cluster processes to model rainfall time series at a range of scales now has a history of more than 30 years. Among them, the randomised (also called modified) Bartlett–Lewis model (RBL1) is particularly popular, while a refinement of this model was proposed recently "span class="cit" id="xref_paren.1""(RBL2; "a href="#bib1.bibx10""Kaczmarska et al."/a", "a href="#bib1.bibx10""2014"/a")"/span". Fitting such models essentially relies upon minimising the difference between theoretical statistics of the rainfall signal and their observed estimates. The first statistics are obtained using closed form analytical expressions for statistics of the orders 1 to 3 of the rainfall depths, as well as useful approximations of the wet–dry structure properties. The second are standard estimates of these statistics for each month of the data. This paper discusses two issues that are important for the optimal model fitting of RBL1 and RBL2. The first issue is that, when revisiting the derivation of the analytical expressions for the rainfall depth moments, it appears that the space of possible parameters is wider than has been assumed in past papers. The second issue is that care must be exerted in the way monthly statistics are estimated from the data. The impact of these two issues upon both models, in particular upon the estimation of extreme rainfall depths at hourly and sub-hourly timescales, is examined using 69 years of 5 min and 105 years of 10 min rainfall data from Bochum (Germany) and Uccle (Belgium), respectively. Document type: Article

Abstract

Rear-end collisions are one of the most common types of accidents on roads. Global Satellite Navigation Systems (GNSS) have recently become sufficiently flexible and cost-effective in order to have great potential for use in rear-end collision avoidance systems (CAS). Nevertheless, there are two main issues associated with current vehicle rear-end CAS: "mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1"""mml:mo stretchy="false""("/mml:mo""mml:mn fontstyle="italic""1"/mml:mn""mml:mo stretchy="false"")"/mml:mo""/mml:math" achieving relative vehicle positioning and dynamic parameters with sufficiently high accuracy and "mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M2"""mml:mo stretchy="false""("/mml:mo""mml:mn fontstyle="italic""2"/mml:mn""mml:mo stretchy="false"")"/mml:mo""/mml:math" a reliable method to extract the car-following status from such information. This paper introduces a novel integrated algorithm for rear-end collision detection. Access to high accuracy positioning is enabled by GNSS, electronic compass, and lane information fusion with Cubature Kalman Filter (CKF). The judgment of the car-following status is based on the application of the Adaptive Neurofuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The field test results show that the designed algorithm could effectively detect rear-end collisions with an accuracy of 99.61% and a false alarm rate of 5.26% in the 10 Hz output rate. Document type: Article

Abstract

The impact of Automated Vehicles (AVs) on urban geography has been widely speculated, though there is little quantitative evidence in the literature to establish the magnitude of such effects. To quantify the impact of the greater precision of automated driving on the spatial efficiency of off-street parking facilities, we develop a mixed integer nonlinear model (solved via a branch-and-cut approach) and present comparisons against industry-standard requirements for human-driving operation. We demonstrate that gains on the order of 40–50% in spatial efficiency (parking spaces per unit area) are in principle achievable while ensuring that each parked vehicle is independently accessible. We further show that the large majority of these efficiency gains can be obtained under current automotive engineering practice in which only the front two wheels pivot. There is a need for standardized methods that take the parking supply of a city as an input and calculate both the aggregate (citywide) efficiency impacts of automated driving and the spatial distribution of the effects. This study is intended as an initial step towards this objective. Document type: Article