Model sistemske dinamike vpliva ukrepov na zmanjševanje števila prometnih nesreč zaradi nepravilne smeri vožnje na avtocestah

Abstract

This paper provides a system dynamic model for reducing the number of motorway accidents due to wrong-way driving. Motorway accidents are often fatal due to high speeds. It is therefore necessary to carry out all the possible countermeasures in order to achieve adequate traffic management. One of the reasons for motorway accidents is driving in the wrong direction. Based on the analysis of the data on motorway accidents caused by driving in the wrong direction and based on the knowledge of individual project elements of junctions and slip roads, this paper will focus on this area. The possible countermeasures, presented here for preventing drivers from driving in the wrong direction on motorways drastically reduce the number of U-turn maneuvers that result in driving in the wrong direction and influence the level of safety on motorways. With the help of this model of system dynamics the countermeasures for reducing the number of such drivers will be confirmed and their effects will be shown. Članek podaja model zniževanja prometnih nesreč zaradi nepravilne smeri vožnje na avtocestah. Prometne nesreče na avtocestah so zaradi velike hitrosti vožnje velikokrat tragične, zato je potrebno izvesti vse možne ukrepe za ustrezno upravljanja prometa. Eden od vzrokov nastanka prometnih nesreč na avtocesti je nepravilna smer vožnje. Na podlagi analiz podatkov o prometnih nesrečah zaradi nepravilne smeri vožnje na avtocestah ter na osnovi poznavanja posameznih projektnih elementov vozlišč in priključkov se pričujoče delo usmerja na to področje. Predstavljeni možni ukrepi za preprečevanje nepravilne smeri vožnje na avtocestah v veliki meri znižujejo število nepravilnih prometnih manevrov, ki imajo za posledico nepravilno smer vožnje in s tem pozitivno vplivajo na raven prometne varnosti na avtocestah. S pomočjo modela sistemske dinamike bo potrjena upravičenost ukrepov za zmanjševanje števila primerov nepravilne smeri vožnje in prikazani njihovi učinki.