This report synthesizes the activities and the findings of the GHG-TransPoRD project. GHG-TransPoRD has developed an integrated European transport sector strategy that links R&D efforts with other transport policies and technological measures to achieve substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions in transport that are in line with the overall GHG reduction targets of the EU, in particular verifying if the target proposed by the European Transport White Paper "Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area" (2011) could actually be met. Based on three steps: 1. quantification of GHG reduction potentials of single measures, 2. cost assessment of single measures and 3. bundling of measures into policy packages and testing these as part of scenarios with a model-based integrated assessment approach the GHG-TransPoRD project concluded that it will be feasible to achieve the GHG reduction target of -60% until 2050 compared with 1990. Road transport, and in particular car transport, has to deliver the largest absolute reductions of energy demand and GHG emissions. In parallel, the European electricity system would have to be converted into a renewable based system generating at least 80% of electricity from renewable energy sources in 2050. However, the -60% target is ambitious as most of the scenarios and policy packages tested by GHG-TransPoRD failed to deliver the required reductions. Only, scenarios combining (1) fast development of efficiency technology, (2) alternative engine technologies able to build their energy supply on renewable electricity, (3) ambitious policy-making to counterbalance rebound effects and maintain financial stability of government transport revenues, (4) ambitious regulation phasing out fossil fuel cars around 2035 together with a moderate modal-shift of 4% percentage points from road towards more energy efficient modes would enable to achieve the GHG targets. Technology scenarios either focussing on efficiency of conventional cars or on alternative technologies would deliver about -34% to 37% percentage point reductions of GHG emissions until 2050. Adding policies in the scenarios, in particular pricing policies, to foster behavioural change, would roughly add another -10% reduction. The remaining GHG reductions would need to result from adding the ambitious regulations in the scenarios.
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Published on 01/01/2012
Volume 2012, 2012DOI: 10.13140/2.1.1511.2007Licence: CC BY-NC-SA license
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