Evaluation of social context integrated into the study of seismic risk for urban areas

Abstract

Usually the seismic risk evaluation involves only the estimation of the expected physical damage, casualties or economic losses. This article corresponds to a holistic approach for seismic risk assessment which involves the evaluation of the social fragility and the lack of resilience. The complementary evaluation of social context aspects such as the distribution of the population, the absence of economic and social development, deficiencies in institutional management, and lack of capacity for response and recovery; is useful in order to have seismic risk evaluation suitable to support a decision making processes for risk reduction. The proposed methodology allows a standardized assessment of the social fragility and lack of resilience, by means of an aggravating coefficient of which summarizes the characteristics of the social context using fuzzy sets and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The selection of 20 social indicators is based on the indicators used by urban observatories of United Nations and other social researchers. These indicators are classified according to social item they describe, in six categories. Applying the determination level analysis, thirteen prevailing social indicators are selected. The proposed methodology has been applied in the cities of Merida (Venezuela) and Barcelona (Spain)

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