Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 731642755 to Weiss et al 2012a

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Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 731642755 to Weiss et al 2012a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are currently more expensive than conventional passenger cars but may become cheaper due..."

2021-02-16T12:14:05Z

Created page with " == Abstract == Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are currently more expensive than conventional passenger cars but may become cheaper due..."

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== Abstract ==

Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are currently more expensive than conventional passenger cars but may become cheaper due to technological learning. Here, we obtain insight into the prospects of future price decline by establishing ex-post learning rates for HEVs and ex-ante price forecasts for HEVs and BEVs. Since 1997, HEVs have shown a robust decline in their price and price differential at learning rates of 7±2% and 23±5%, respectively. By 2010, HEVs were only 31±22€2010kW−1 more expensive than conventional cars. Mass-produced BEVs are currently introduced into the market at prices of 479±171€2010kW−1, which is 285±213€2010kW−1 and 316±209€2010kW−1 more expensive than HEVs and conventional cars. Our forecast suggests that price breakeven with these vehicles may only be achieved by 2026 and 2032, when 50 and 80 million BEVs, respectively, would have been produced worldwide. We estimate that BEVs may require until then global learning investments of 100–150 billion € which is less than the global subsidies for fossil fuel consumption paid in 2009. These findings suggest that HEVs, including plug-in HEVs, could become the dominant vehicle technology in the next two decades, while BEVs may require long-term policy support.

== Original document ==

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

* [https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/281419 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/281419]

* [https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0301421512004508?httpAccept=text/xml https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0301421512004508?httpAccept=text/xml],
: [https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0301421512004508?httpAccept=text/plain https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0301421512004508?httpAccept=text/plain],
: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.038 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.038] under the license https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/

* [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512004508 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512004508],
: [https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:42350 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:42350],
: [http://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/281419 http://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/281419],
: [https://core.ac.uk/display/92629906 https://core.ac.uk/display/92629906],
: [https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v48y2012icp374-393.html https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v48y2012icp374-393.html],
: [http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC71077 http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC71077],
: [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512004508 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512004508],
: [https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:48:y:2012:i:c:p:374-393 https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:48:y:2012:i:c:p:374-393],
: [https://www.narcis.nl/publication/RecordID/oai%3Adspace.library.uu.nl%3A1874%2F281419 https://www.narcis.nl/publication/RecordID/oai%3Adspace.library.uu.nl%3A1874%2F281419],
: [https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2094538569 https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2094538569]

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Weiss et al 2012a - Revision history

Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 731642755 to Weiss et al 2012a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are currently more expensive than conventional passenger cars but may become cheaper due..."