Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 886209830 to Vespignani et al 2011a

2021-02-12T14:13:12Z

Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 886209830 to Vespignani et al 2011a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == fter the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt t..."

2021-02-12T14:13:08Z

Created page with " == Abstract == fter the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt t..."

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== Abstract ==

fter the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. When gauging the value and efficacy of mobility and travel restrictions it is crucial to rely on epidemic models that integrate the wide range of features characterizing human mobility and the many options available to public health organizations for responding to a pandemic. Here we present a comprehensive computational and theoretical study of the role of travel restrictions in halting and delaying pandemics by using a model that explicitly integrates air travel and short-range mobility data with high-resolution demographic data across the world and that is validated by the accumulation of data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level.

This work has been partially funded by the National Institutes of Health R21-DA024259 award, the Lilly Endowment grant 2008 1639-000 and the DTRA-1-0910039 award to AV; the EC-ICT contract no. 231807 (EPIWORK) to AV and VC; the EC-FET contract no. 233847 (DYNANETS) to AV, VC, and JJR; the ERC Ideas contract n.ERC-2007-Stg204863 (EPIFOR) to VC, PB, CP, and MT. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Peer reviewed

Document type: Article

== Full document ==
<pdf>Media:Draft_Content_886209830-beopen497-8023-document.pdf</pdf>

== Original document ==

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

* [http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591]

* [http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3031602 http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3031602]

* [http://hdl.handle.net/10261/43678 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/43678]

* [https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591] under the license cc-by

* [https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591 https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591]

* [http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591 http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591],
: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591]

* [https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00562226 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00562226],
: [https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00562226/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00562226/document],
: [https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00562226/file/journal.pone.0016591.PDF https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00562226/file/journal.pone.0016591.PDF] under the license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/

* [https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016591&type=printable https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016591&type=printable],
: [https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016591 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016591],
: [https://digital.csic.es/handle/10261/43678 https://digital.csic.es/handle/10261/43678],
: [https://doaj.org/article/d0b39eeff5a94190baebf4f379ce2464 https://doaj.org/article/d0b39eeff5a94190baebf4f379ce2464],
: [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/21304943 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/21304943],
: [https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00562226/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00562226/document],
: [http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3031602 http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3031602],
: [https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PLoSO...616591B/abstract https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PLoSO...616591B/abstract],
: [https://core.ac.uk/display/89453994 https://core.ac.uk/display/89453994],
: [https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00562226 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00562226],
: [https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591],
: [https://iris.polito.it/handle/11583/2381667 https://iris.polito.it/handle/11583/2381667],
: [http://digital.csic.es/bitstream/10261/43678/1/journal.pone.0016591.pdf http://digital.csic.es/bitstream/10261/43678/1/journal.pone.0016591.pdf],
: [https://paperity.org/p/61103117/human-mobility-networks-travel-restrictions-and-the-global-spread-of-2009-h1n1-pandemic https://paperity.org/p/61103117/human-mobility-networks-travel-restrictions-and-the-global-spread-of-2009-h1n1-pandemic],
: [https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2074329989 https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2074329989]

* [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21304943/?tool=EBI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21304943/?tool=EBI],
: [https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203]

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Vespignani et al 2011a - Revision history

Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 886209830 to Vespignani et al 2011a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == fter the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt t..."